Go to link and click on the video from "Onion News" on the real reason for unemployment (<-- what they satirize, not my personal views) for a little dark humor. http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/10/the-rea...
spot
lessmore - First, I suggest that you look into the history of positive improvements that have ever been legislated into existence by Congress, then in terms of your findings, evaluate the predicament of an innocent who is about to be tossed by tribal leaders to the wolves: The status quo is not good, certainly, but it is better than what the wolves offer.
spot
Yesterday, and the late nite before, I posted a link to the Wall Street Journal for a write-up on the Healthcare Bill. Here is a clip out of a lengthy section dealing with Medicare changes. First, a reminder: One must be “old” to receive Medicare and a preponderance of the “old” have worked hard for low income all their lives, but they still had to pay a significant portion of their working income for what they thought would be Medicare benefits in old age. Here’s the clip -[ bracketed comments are mine]:
“• Secs. 1158-1160 (pp. 499-520) initiates programs to reduce payments for [Medicare] patient care to what it costs in the lowest cost regions of the country [Indian Reservations??]. This will reduce payments for care (and by implication the standard of care) for hospital patients in higher cost areas such as New York and Florida [and all those areas that are not so “higher cost”].
If you haven’t read that original post, and you are young, old, employer, unemployed but hopeful, working for a struggling employer, etc - go read that post and forget the Gov’s obfuscation. http://tinyurl.com/ycsa2gf
spot
Government of the People; For the People, and By the People?
Bank bailouts, Car bailouts, Fannie/Freddie bailouts, Insurance (so called “Healthcare”) bailouts by CONgress despite the voiced despair and frustration of the People says that our Gov no longer cares about the will of the people.
Some posters say that our Gov needs to learn from history. Unfortunately, I think the PTB know history all too well. Our forefathers intended that we be a “republic”, but we like to think of ourselves as a “democracy”. Perhaps, the best known “republic” in our recorded history was that of Rome and the best known “democracy” was that of Athens.
History says that both of these historical models transitioned past greedy, smooth talking politicians to outright dictatorships; and through paying off poorer classes in order to prevent riots while taxing the working classes until weakness engendered collapse - beginning to sound familiar?
Unfortunately, he who has the army will win. It will enforce payment, enforce unfair laws, and provide crown control. Modern times has provided Gov’s a few more tools. For example, England had debtor prisons for those who could not pay their bills.
Isn’t it interesting that Pelosi’s insurance bailout (ie Healthcare) bill provides first for laying on new fees, then for those who cannot afford to pay the new fees - well, new FINES of course, and lastly for those who cannot afford to pay the fees, nor the fines, well then those debtors will just have to be placed into (debtor) prison. From prisons, the next step to take place will be to sell/give all those inmates as workers (serfs/slaves) for services to the rich.
So much for learning from history. We are not ready for it.
For those who like to sing out their despair, here’s Tennessee Ernie Ford’s “Sixteen Tons”:
“ ... Another day older and deeper in debt ...”
It's always hard when it is family or friend, but I've heard you quote Ecclesiastes many times:
“To everything there is a season, and a time to every purpose under heaven”.
To quote an old Negro spiritual:
"All my trials, Lord, soon be over ... "
Being about the same age as you, I have also lost family and friends. I've found that it helps at least for me, at some point, to go for a walk, pick a flower, place it on a stone or wall where I will remember where it was, and say goodbye.
spot
vbean - You don't have to go as far as zerohedge (although I also visit that site routinely), here is part of what Bill Cara said just last weekend [my emphasis added]:
"
Week in Review #44, 2009
November 1, 2009 by Bill Cara
[6:35pm] The market is set to crash – first equities; later bonds – because HB&B is likely going to permit it. They are aware that the Glass-Steagall debate is on fire and about to burn them beyond recognition. They are undoubtedly livid and, judging from the charts of the past couple weeks as well as the holding action I observed this week, have probably decided to sell everything. [Let's call that a "zag" as opposed to a "zig" -spot.]
This week I alone pointed you to the fact that while there was no interest at all for equities in any market of the world there was a huge pumping action [Let's call that a "zig" as opposed to a "zag" - spot.] that was sending bank stocks soaring. Banks in Japan, China, India, Greece, France, Germany, UK, Ireland, and everywhere I looked were bouncing from +2% to +10% for several days in a row, which was strange because the market indexes in those countries were dropping. I came to the conclusion it was the pump before and during the dump. By the end of the week though, those bank stock charts were looking rather sick. ..."
For so many Markets to be acting in coordination, there must be many Humongous Banks involved, but then indeed, GS has lots of past(?) employees running Central Banks who seem to act just like our Fed.
spot
Grym - I don't disagree with your points about unemployment nor those about the government's abilities (or lack thereof), but you are I believe trying to correlate those conditions with the current Market.
My belief is that it is not logic, nor even personal feelings, that drives this Market, but rather it is GREED which simply correlates to the computer formulae that translate to "if we (Humongous Banks & Brokers) move the Market from this point to that point, our profits will be Humongous, and if we can also zig a little here and zag a little there especially contrary to all news, logic, and option volumes, then all bonus payments will be in the $zillions - zippityHooHaDay!!
My sympathies sincerely to all young and old who are and will be crushed in the process.
spot
A lot of professional commenticators have recently been betting a portion of their reputations on the possibility that the Market will track as it did in 1929. Maybe it will/won’t, but I wonder why we don’t see more bets that the Market will track as it did more recently in 2003 (see chart attachment).
That year, 2003, seems to me to be a more relevant year than is 1929. In 1929, ordinary people actually played a role in whether a stock's price went up or down. Back then, if fundamentals and/or news were bad, then people sold shares, and prices went downward - simple.
Today, though maybe the manipulation was not so obvious in 2003, prices go up or down without regard to fundamentals, news, or volume. Ordinary people’s stock transactions are whipped of their cream and served with a cherry to the backroom “Market directors”.
Such manipulations seem pretty obvious, so why look back at 1929 for guidance when the "computers" are probably set to track 2003 or better?
My chart attachment indicates that we are coming to a level where “Market directors” might show their hand. If it is to be a 2003 tracking (not considering repeated bull/bear traps), then we will see a continuing gentle(?) swing movement upward without any 1929 copying trap door falls.
Don't know if this has already been posted. It seems that the Treasury Dept wants to get to know some financial bloggers and invited a select few to Washington. I hope no one ate or drank anything while there.
"Naked Capitalism"'s blogger was on the list and discusses the meeting:
Sometimes it is good to step back from the S&P Index, and all the garbage (news) that is placed for public consumption, in order to try to find a reference point or basis for reality.
Carl Swenlin has a site (copyrighted but free for now) on which he explains, states, and graphs S&P's p/e and earnings, current and projected in easy to understand terms.
I don't think I would try to trade on this information, but it certainly helps to keep it in mind whenever I feel the urge to cast all my marbles into the circle.
I read the comments on several other blogs. You do a huge task here to restrain excess and abuse, and do it well.
Regarding changes, you have said a lot in a short space. I suggest that you include a FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions) section with your sidebar link. I know that I am lost in trying to determine where I will fit in (or out).
There is an interesting piece on the effect of the “Cash for Clunker” program at the link below. Reportedly the Gov (Obama’s people) has challenged Edmonds.com on their opinion that the CfC program cost taxpayers $24,000 per new vehicle that was sold. Here is a clip from Edmonds’s response.
“ ... It is also claimed we missed the possibility that Cash for Clunkers generated excitement and consumers bought vehicles even if they didn't qualify for the program -- a claim that has been widely supported by anecdote but by little analysis. It does, after all, seem a bit odd that masses of consumers would elect to buy a vehicle because of a program for which they don't qualify -- doubly so when you add in the fact that prices shot up during Cash for Clunkers, creating a disincentive to buy. [Note: I saw and reported here on this, myself. In my area, I actually saw dealer prices jump about $4,000 going into the program with the result that the dealer got the incentive on each car that was sold and not the consumer - sucker born every minute concept from a car dealer?? - ng.]
Finally, the White House claims that the increase in fourth-quarter production reported by the car manufacturers can be attributed to Cash for Clunkers. But here is a better reason: the economy is recovering accompanied by improved car sales. No manufacturer increases production -- a decision with long-term consequences -- based on the 30-day sales blip triggered by an event like Cash for Clunkers.
With all respect to the White House, Edmunds.com thinks that instead of shooting the messenger, government officials should take heart from the core message of the analysis: the fundamentals of the auto marketplace are improving faster than the current sales numbers suggest. ... “
Vad is calling for a bounce. I think the $VIX add weight to that call at least for tomorrow which completes "window dressing" effect for the month.
Not trading advice. Just adding my two cent chart. See below and note RSI, Ma positioning past verticals, and current positive candlestick on SPX. (Note for newbies: VIX down = SPX up.)
spot
"A lot of things happened during this month. It's not like we decide it wasn't worth leaving the bed in the morning only because we find themselves back in it in the evening, right? :)"
If I were a young man, I would respond: "It depends on who is your bed mate! :)"
As to day trading, been there, done that. My way to make money may be slower, but I can get up and go to the bathroom when I want to - and for an old man like me - that's important.
Re: CNBC - Fallen and it can't get up!
Submitted by Vadym Graifer (587 comments) on Tue, 10/27/2009 - 21:41 #50657 (in reply to #50646)
Vad - Your comment, yesterday, in response to my posting about CNBC is well documented and presented. I agree that the manner in which statistics are presented can intentionally stir, or placate, the emotions of a viewer. Perhaps, together, we have presented both sides to this issue?
In such cases, one might suggest that it could be beneficial to look around in one's own environment for supportive evidence to assist in determining which side of these statistical presentations might possibly have more validity. For example, one might look here at the content of past postings about CNBC in order to estimate in total a validity.
I suspect that one might find that, at least on this site, there is an indication of possibly real and growing dissatisfaction among posters with the reporting of CNBC of financial news. Perhaps, CNBC's audience really is melting away? In any case, the decision of the sponsors will be final.
test
Go to link and click on the video from "Onion News" on the real reason for unemployment (<-- what they satirize, not my personal views) for a little dark humor.
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/10/the-rea...
spot
lessmore - First, I suggest that you look into the history of positive improvements that have ever been legislated into existence by Congress, then in terms of your findings, evaluate the predicament of an innocent who is about to be tossed by tribal leaders to the wolves: The status quo is not good, certainly, but it is better than what the wolves offer.
spot
Yesterday, and the late nite before, I posted a link to the Wall Street Journal for a write-up on the Healthcare Bill. Here is a clip out of a lengthy section dealing with Medicare changes. First, a reminder: One must be “old” to receive Medicare and a preponderance of the “old” have worked hard for low income all their lives, but they still had to pay a significant portion of their working income for what they thought would be Medicare benefits in old age. Here’s the clip -[ bracketed comments are mine]:
“• Secs. 1158-1160 (pp. 499-520) initiates programs to reduce payments for [Medicare] patient care to what it costs in the lowest cost regions of the country [Indian Reservations??]. This will reduce payments for care (and by implication the standard of care) for hospital patients in higher cost areas such as New York and Florida [and all those areas that are not so “higher cost”].
If you haven’t read that original post, and you are young, old, employer, unemployed but hopeful, working for a struggling employer, etc - go read that post and forget the Gov’s obfuscation.
http://tinyurl.com/ycsa2gf
spot
Government of the People; For the People, and By the People?
Bank bailouts, Car bailouts, Fannie/Freddie bailouts, Insurance (so called “Healthcare”) bailouts by CONgress despite the voiced despair and frustration of the People says that our Gov no longer cares about the will of the people.
Some posters say that our Gov needs to learn from history. Unfortunately, I think the PTB know history all too well. Our forefathers intended that we be a “republic”, but we like to think of ourselves as a “democracy”. Perhaps, the best known “republic” in our recorded history was that of Rome and the best known “democracy” was that of Athens.
History says that both of these historical models transitioned past greedy, smooth talking politicians to outright dictatorships; and through paying off poorer classes in order to prevent riots while taxing the working classes until weakness engendered collapse - beginning to sound familiar?
Unfortunately, he who has the army will win. It will enforce payment, enforce unfair laws, and provide crown control. Modern times has provided Gov’s a few more tools. For example, England had debtor prisons for those who could not pay their bills.
Isn’t it interesting that Pelosi’s insurance bailout (ie Healthcare) bill provides first for laying on new fees, then for those who cannot afford to pay the new fees - well, new FINES of course, and lastly for those who cannot afford to pay the fees, nor the fines, well then those debtors will just have to be placed into (debtor) prison. From prisons, the next step to take place will be to sell/give all those inmates as workers (serfs/slaves) for services to the rich.
So much for learning from history. We are not ready for it.
For those who like to sing out their despair, here’s Tennessee Ernie Ford’s “Sixteen Tons”:
“ ... Another day older and deeper in debt ...”
Link to song:
http://tinyurl.com/yg9lu9u
It's always hard when it is family or friend, but I've heard you quote Ecclesiastes many times:
“To everything there is a season, and a time to every purpose under heaven”.
To quote an old Negro spiritual:
"All my trials, Lord, soon be over ... "
Being about the same age as you, I have also lost family and friends. I've found that it helps at least for me, at some point, to go for a walk, pick a flower, place it on a stone or wall where I will remember where it was, and say goodbye.
spot
vbean - You don't have to go as far as zerohedge (although I also visit that site routinely), here is part of what Bill Cara said just last weekend [my emphasis added]:
"
Week in Review #44, 2009
November 1, 2009 by Bill Cara
[6:35pm] The market is set to crash – first equities; later bonds – because HB&B is likely going to permit it. They are aware that the Glass-Steagall debate is on fire and about to burn them beyond recognition. They are undoubtedly livid and, judging from the charts of the past couple weeks as well as the holding action I observed this week, have probably decided to sell everything. [Let's call that a "zag" as opposed to a "zig" -spot.]
This week I alone pointed you to the fact that while there was no interest at all for equities in any market of the world there was a huge pumping action [Let's call that a "zig" as opposed to a "zag" - spot.] that was sending bank stocks soaring. Banks in Japan, China, India, Greece, France, Germany, UK, Ireland, and everywhere I looked were bouncing from +2% to +10% for several days in a row, which was strange because the market indexes in those countries were dropping. I came to the conclusion it was the pump before and during the dump. By the end of the week though, those bank stock charts were looking rather sick. ..."
For so many Markets to be acting in coordination, there must be many Humongous Banks involved, but then indeed, GS has lots of past(?) employees running Central Banks who seem to act just like our Fed.
spot
Grym - I don't disagree with your points about unemployment nor those about the government's abilities (or lack thereof), but you are I believe trying to correlate those conditions with the current Market.
My belief is that it is not logic, nor even personal feelings, that drives this Market, but rather it is GREED which simply correlates to the computer formulae that translate to "if we (Humongous Banks & Brokers) move the Market from this point to that point, our profits will be Humongous, and if we can also zig a little here and zag a little there especially contrary to all news, logic, and option volumes, then all bonus payments will be in the $zillions - zippityHooHaDay!!
My sympathies sincerely to all young and old who are and will be crushed in the process.
spot
SPX - 1929 Tracking?
A lot of professional commenticators have recently been betting a portion of their reputations on the possibility that the Market will track as it did in 1929. Maybe it will/won’t, but I wonder why we don’t see more bets that the Market will track as it did more recently in 2003 (see chart attachment).
That year, 2003, seems to me to be a more relevant year than is 1929. In 1929, ordinary people actually played a role in whether a stock's price went up or down. Back then, if fundamentals and/or news were bad, then people sold shares, and prices went downward - simple.
Today, though maybe the manipulation was not so obvious in 2003, prices go up or down without regard to fundamentals, news, or volume. Ordinary people’s stock transactions are whipped of their cream and served with a cherry to the backroom “Market directors”.
Such manipulations seem pretty obvious, so why look back at 1929 for guidance when the "computers" are probably set to track 2003 or better?
My chart attachment indicates that we are coming to a level where “Market directors” might show their hand. If it is to be a 2003 tracking (not considering repeated bull/bear traps), then we will see a continuing gentle(?) swing movement upward without any 1929 copying trap door falls.
Jmho and not trading advice.
spot
Wall Street Journal has some concise info about what is in the proposed Health Care Bill.
All I can say is: Young or old, we are sooooo screwed! Read it and weep. ng.
"What the Pelosi Health-Care Bill Really Says
Here are some important passages in the 2,000 page legislation."
http://tinyurl.com/ycsa2gf
Repeat post from last nite.
spot
Wall Street Journal has some concise info about what is in the proposed Health Care Bill.
All I can say is: Young or old, we are sooooo screwed! Read it and weep. ng.
"What the Pelosi Health-Care Bill Really Says
Here are some important passages in the 2,000 page legislation."
http://tinyurl.com/ycsa2gf
spot
Don't know if this has already been posted. It seems that the Treasury Dept wants to get to know some financial bloggers and invited a select few to Washington. I hope no one ate or drank anything while there.
"Naked Capitalism"'s blogger was on the list and discusses the meeting:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/11/curious-mee...
p.s. Glad Ms Cara is doing better.
spot
SPY - My 60min chart is showing risk of overbought at this point. Check your own charts and act accordingly. Not trading advice.
spot
[edit: Sorry, forgot to attach the chart below - now there.}
Sometimes it is good to step back from the S&P Index, and all the garbage (news) that is placed for public consumption, in order to try to find a reference point or basis for reality.
Carl Swenlin has a site (copyrighted but free for now) on which he explains, states, and graphs S&P's p/e and earnings, current and projected in easy to understand terms.
I don't think I would try to trade on this information, but it certainly helps to keep it in mind whenever I feel the urge to cast all my marbles into the circle.
Take a glance at it:
http://decisionpoint.com/tac/swenlin.html
spot
I read the comments on several other blogs. You do a huge task here to restrain excess and abuse, and do it well.
Regarding changes, you have said a lot in a short space. I suggest that you include a FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions) section with your sidebar link. I know that I am lost in trying to determine where I will fit in (or out).
Looking forward to your continuing progress.
spot
There is an interesting piece on the effect of the “Cash for Clunker” program at the link below. Reportedly the Gov (Obama’s people) has challenged Edmonds.com on their opinion that the CfC program cost taxpayers $24,000 per new vehicle that was sold. Here is a clip from Edmonds’s response.
“ ... It is also claimed we missed the possibility that Cash for Clunkers generated excitement and consumers bought vehicles even if they didn't qualify for the program -- a claim that has been widely supported by anecdote but by little analysis. It does, after all, seem a bit odd that masses of consumers would elect to buy a vehicle because of a program for which they don't qualify -- doubly so when you add in the fact that prices shot up during Cash for Clunkers, creating a disincentive to buy. [Note: I saw and reported here on this, myself. In my area, I actually saw dealer prices jump about $4,000 going into the program with the result that the dealer got the incentive on each car that was sold and not the consumer - sucker born every minute concept from a car dealer?? - ng.]
Finally, the White House claims that the increase in fourth-quarter production reported by the car manufacturers can be attributed to Cash for Clunkers. But here is a better reason: the economy is recovering accompanied by improved car sales. No manufacturer increases production -- a decision with long-term consequences -- based on the 30-day sales blip triggered by an event like Cash for Clunkers.
With all respect to the White House, Edmunds.com thinks that instead of shooting the messenger, government officials should take heart from the core message of the analysis: the fundamentals of the auto marketplace are improving faster than the current sales numbers suggest. ... “
More at link:
http://www.businessinsider.com/edmundscom-fights-b...
What is the actual truth in the matter - "only the shadow knows.."
spot
Vad is calling for a bounce. I think the $VIX add weight to that call at least for tomorrow which completes "window dressing" effect for the month.
Not trading advice. Just adding my two cent chart. See below and note RSI, Ma positioning past verticals, and current positive candlestick on SPX. (Note for newbies: VIX down = SPX up.)
spot
"A lot of things happened during this month. It's not like we decide it wasn't worth leaving the bed in the morning only because we find themselves back in it in the evening, right? :)"
If I were a young man, I would respond: "It depends on who is your bed mate! :)"
As to day trading, been there, done that. My way to make money may be slower, but I can get up and go to the bathroom when I want to - and for an old man like me - that's important.
Good luck!
spot
Coulda been on vacation!
spot
Re: CNBC - Fallen and it can't get up!
Submitted by Vadym Graifer (587 comments) on Tue, 10/27/2009 - 21:41 #50657 (in reply to #50646)
Vad - Your comment, yesterday, in response to my posting about CNBC is well documented and presented. I agree that the manner in which statistics are presented can intentionally stir, or placate, the emotions of a viewer. Perhaps, together, we have presented both sides to this issue?
In such cases, one might suggest that it could be beneficial to look around in one's own environment for supportive evidence to assist in determining which side of these statistical presentations might possibly have more validity. For example, one might look here at the content of past postings about CNBC in order to estimate in total a validity.
I suspect that one might find that, at least on this site, there is an indication of possibly real and growing dissatisfaction among posters with the reporting of CNBC of financial news. Perhaps, CNBC's audience really is melting away? In any case, the decision of the sponsors will be final.
Thanks for the comment.
spot