I sold my last position in RBY at $5.96 back on January 13th just after lunch time. It actually ran up over $6 after I sold it and I thought maybe I had pulled the trigger too soon, but then it reversed and finished lower on the day.
Previously [back in May-June of 2010] the stock pulled back to just under its previous breakout point back on September 1, 2009 @ $3.21. But that was part of a much broader correction in gold.
So I'm watching the November 25-26 of 2010 break out levels [$4.35- $4.45] for support to kick in. I'm not saying it will necessary get to those levels, but that would be a logical place for buyers to re-emerge.
Another level a bit higher that could hold is near $4.80, which was hit 3 separate times [Oct. '09, Feb. '10, and March '10].
The travel on Highway 1 is both a crowded and long one when a hurricane is bearing down, and everyone is scrambling to evacuate. Having been through all the hurricanes in 2003 in Florida, Key West is one place I would not want to be full-time.
Your mention of Walgreen's brought back memories of when I used to manage my mother's stock account after my father's passing. We owned it in her account for a pretty long while and made out very nice on it.
Buy & hold has pretty much been thrown out the window as an investment methodology over the course of world economic events the last 10 years. Yesterday while I was chatting with my mother on the phone, I asked her to go back & get the record book I kept on her stock transactions.
The first 3 stocks she came across were Coach (COH) which we purchased in October of 2002 emerging from a deep cup with handle base, Panera Bread (PNRA) purchased in late September of 2000 moving out of a 4 week consolidation, and O'Reilly Automotive purchased in December of 2001. The total dollar amount invested in those 3 was around $111,925 (I don't have the exact commission amounts).
After I pulled up the quotes for these 3 and adjusted for stock splits and told her how much they were worth collectively at this point, she refused to go through any more stocks.
The current value of those 3 positions is close to $710,000, not including any dividends from COH. Now you see why she didn't want to review any more of her former holdings. LOL One of my siblings convinced her that having money in the stock market was much too risky and demanded that she sell everything.
If you look at the long term charts of those companies, you'll see that COH had a 80% correction in the debacle spanning mid 2007 to early 2009. But it has come roaring back.
Over time, well managed companies with solid products/services will always do well, even in the most challenging of macro economic climates.
Charles Nenner recently mentioned sunspots in his latest comments on Yahoo Tech Ticker. Nenner is saying that the U.S. is in a deflationary spiral similar to Japan, and that the DJIA is headed for 5000 in several years.
I'm not saying I put any credence into this kind of thing, but here's the video where he mentioned sun spots as an indicator, starting roughly at the 2:48 minute mark.
BTW, Jim Rickards was also on earlier in the day and also called for $5,000 gold. Here's the video for that interview. Fast forward to the 4:08 mark for his discussion on gold.
Not sure if this has already been posted here, so forgive me if it has. Earlier this week in an interview, Ara Hovnanian stated that 3.5% down payments were still available for the $400K to $700K range of houses thru FHA, and "that's definitely helping the market right now."
The obvious problem as we've already experienced is that the less skin homeowners have in the game, the easier it is to walk away from their obligation. If these new buyers see housing in their neighborhood/community decline to the extent that it puts them upside down, these low down payments will not give much incentive for them to continue paying their mortgage, no matter the interest rate.
The problem is that the banks are still sitting on plenty of bad paper that they've yet to disclose/acknowledge. As that shadow inventory of foreclosures and homes that people just want to sell comes on the market, housing prices could stagnate or even decline, longer than many expect.
CREE ($47.52) is probably one of the most oversold stocks in the market right now. As much as I dislike catching falling knives, this is definitely one that could bounce significantly.
I would balance that by adding I would keep a very tight stop, maybe around $46.85 - stay away from the obvious round number of $47.
Bev, I found the same thing on 6 month daily chart for SPX. The upward wedging does not allow the necessary profit taking and price consolidation to take place.
You need sideways to downward sloping price action to shake out the weak holders/traders, which then strengthens the stock with "strong hands" before another advance commences.
I like your thinking, although it could fall a bit further to "really" shake out the fence-sitters. July 6 shows open gap at 33.19. Intraday breach of 602 on the Russell 2000 would set off a lot of alarms & could send traders the wrong way, thus the chance that gap gets filled.
That would be a fine opportunity, imo.
I'm watching & waiting with much interest/take care
Speculative $CDNX venture index has been up 13 of last 14 days, and 19 of the last 23 days. Today it's pulling back just over 1/2 percent at 1461.15.
RSI 7 hit a high yesterday over 86 = very overbought. The last time RSI 7 was that high on this index was April 9 of this year, which just happened to mark the top of the intermediate bull trend.
The financials were particularly weak on Friday, and they will likely lead any further market decline. Look at the action on Friday in Bank of America [BAC], gapping down big on huge volume and closing at $13.98 (-9.16%). Citigroup [C], gapping down and closing at 3.90 (-6.25%). Wells Fargo [WFC] gapping down and closing at $26.24 [-5.65%].
Some of the major U.S. money center banks are insolvent, imo. They have hidden their losses and to this day have refused to come clean on the true status of their balance sheets. The gig will be up soon enough. You can only hide and paper over the losses for so long.
Current market volatility, and more importantly, Friday's most recent price action in the S&P 500 is worrisome. The S&P 500 index, which closed at 1064.88 on Friday, was rejected early in the trading day at the 50 DMA (1090) as well as the downtrend line drawn from the April 2010 highs. What's worse is that this decline happened on stronger than normal volume.
Over the weekend, I've been reviewing charts from the 1929-1932 time frame and comparing them to the current situation. In particular, after the initial crash which occurred in the latter half of 1929, the DJIA then rose 48% in roughly 5 months.
But the head and shoulders pattern that formed after that is what has me on guard. You can go to Yahoo Finance and pull up a chart of the DJIA from that time period. Pay particular attention to the pattern that formed from February to late May of 1930 - a clear H&S pattern.
Now compare the current chart of the S&P or Nasdaq Composite to the 1930 chart and the similarities are eerie. This doesn't mean that the market will roll over and drop in a straight line from here; but caution is certainly in order.
Maintain tight stops on any long positions and use proper hedging instruments. Things could get dicey very soon.
BP is shortable in the $53-$54 range, for a move back to $41-$42, IMO. This oil spill is MUCH larger and detrimental than what has been reported. I am not confident that the dividend is safe - they may have to cut the dividend to pay for this disaster. Surely Transocean (RIG) will also have to contribute and will be hurt, but this is primarily BP's problem.
Recent price action in the SPX, DJIA, TRAN, and COMPX have all been impressive. What's lacking is volume. Volume shows us the degree of conviction and strength in a move. This most recent rally has largely been devoid of significant volume to the upside.
I remain suspect of the validity of this move to the top of the range until volume comes in size and confirms.
Typically, volume precedes price action, and we simply haven't seen it develop in the major indices.
GW, keep posting those nice charts. Gives everyone with varying beliefs something to consider.
Here's one of SLV I put out today.
http://chart.ly/i5arhdf
Precious metals have firmed intraday, but is it a sustainable change in trend from the weakness of the last 4 weeks ?
Is it more a reaction to the unrest that's happening in Egypt ?
ballena,
I sold my last position in RBY at $5.96 back on January 13th just after lunch time. It actually ran up over $6 after I sold it and I thought maybe I had pulled the trigger too soon, but then it reversed and finished lower on the day.
Previously [back in May-June of 2010] the stock pulled back to just under its previous breakout point back on September 1, 2009 @ $3.21. But that was part of a much broader correction in gold.
So I'm watching the November 25-26 of 2010 break out levels [$4.35- $4.45] for support to kick in. I'm not saying it will necessary get to those levels, but that would be a logical place for buyers to re-emerge.
Another level a bit higher that could hold is near $4.80, which was hit 3 separate times [Oct. '09, Feb. '10, and March '10].
Vad, I agree with those sentiments. Astute traders watch closely the price & volume action of the market & pay less attention to the chatter.
What's the old adage that is sometimes attributed to Benjamin Franklin ?
"Believe none of what you hear and half of what you see."
The travel on Highway 1 is both a crowded and long one when a hurricane is bearing down, and everyone is scrambling to evacuate. Having been through all the hurricanes in 2003 in Florida, Key West is one place I would not want to be full-time.
Fun place to visit, for sure.
http://bit.ly/f8KFbS
" ... Meredith Whitney said that she expects municipal market woes to become the biggest US economic problem apart from the housing market."
Two examples:
http://nyti.ms/gsq0cS
http://nyti.ms/hPWWGi
Grym,
Your mention of Walgreen's brought back memories of when I used to manage my mother's stock account after my father's passing. We owned it in her account for a pretty long while and made out very nice on it.
Buy & hold has pretty much been thrown out the window as an investment methodology over the course of world economic events the last 10 years. Yesterday while I was chatting with my mother on the phone, I asked her to go back & get the record book I kept on her stock transactions.
The first 3 stocks she came across were Coach (COH) which we purchased in October of 2002 emerging from a deep cup with handle base, Panera Bread (PNRA) purchased in late September of 2000 moving out of a 4 week consolidation, and O'Reilly Automotive purchased in December of 2001. The total dollar amount invested in those 3 was around $111,925 (I don't have the exact commission amounts).
After I pulled up the quotes for these 3 and adjusted for stock splits and told her how much they were worth collectively at this point, she refused to go through any more stocks.
The current value of those 3 positions is close to $710,000, not including any dividends from COH. Now you see why she didn't want to review any more of her former holdings. LOL One of my siblings convinced her that having money in the stock market was much too risky and demanded that she sell everything.
If you look at the long term charts of those companies, you'll see that COH had a 80% correction in the debacle spanning mid 2007 to early 2009. But it has come roaring back.
Over time, well managed companies with solid products/services will always do well, even in the most challenging of macro economic climates.
This is lengthy and so it may take you some time to get through its entirety, but it is an absolute MUST watch.
Take the time and watch it in segments if you must, but watch the entire video. The Q&A at the end is very good.
http://bit.ly/hhpGvu
Charles Nenner recently mentioned sunspots in his latest comments on Yahoo Tech Ticker. Nenner is saying that the U.S. is in a deflationary spiral similar to Japan, and that the DJIA is headed for 5000 in several years.
I'm not saying I put any credence into this kind of thing, but here's the video where he mentioned sun spots as an indicator, starting roughly at the 2:48 minute mark.
http://yhoo.it/gGXp66
For those who missed it on CNBC this morning, here's the brief video.
http://bit.ly/a0TnNK
BTW, Jim Rickards was also on earlier in the day and also called for $5,000 gold. Here's the video for that interview. Fast forward to the 4:08 mark for his discussion on gold.
http://bit.ly/bcLicz
Not sure if this has already been posted here, so forgive me if it has. Earlier this week in an interview, Ara Hovnanian stated that 3.5% down payments were still available for the $400K to $700K range of houses thru FHA, and "that's definitely helping the market right now."
The obvious problem as we've already experienced is that the less skin homeowners have in the game, the easier it is to walk away from their obligation. If these new buyers see housing in their neighborhood/community decline to the extent that it puts them upside down, these low down payments will not give much incentive for them to continue paying their mortgage, no matter the interest rate.
The problem is that the banks are still sitting on plenty of bad paper that they've yet to disclose/acknowledge. As that shadow inventory of foreclosures and homes that people just want to sell comes on the market, housing prices could stagnate or even decline, longer than many expect.
Haven't we learned anything ?
http://bit.ly/bQInmd
CREE ($47.52) is probably one of the most oversold stocks in the market right now. As much as I dislike catching falling knives, this is definitely one that could bounce significantly.
I would balance that by adding I would keep a very tight stop, maybe around $46.85 - stay away from the obvious round number of $47.
Bev, I found the same thing on 6 month daily chart for SPX. The upward wedging does not allow the necessary profit taking and price consolidation to take place.
You need sideways to downward sloping price action to shake out the weak holders/traders, which then strengthens the stock with "strong hands" before another advance commences.
http://chart.ly/xjicvig
I like your thinking, although it could fall a bit further to "really" shake out the fence-sitters. July 6 shows open gap at 33.19. Intraday breach of 602 on the Russell 2000 would set off a lot of alarms & could send traders the wrong way, thus the chance that gap gets filled.
That would be a fine opportunity, imo.
I'm watching & waiting with much interest/take care
Speculative $CDNX venture index has been up 13 of last 14 days, and 19 of the last 23 days. Today it's pulling back just over 1/2 percent at 1461.15.
RSI 7 hit a high yesterday over 86 = very overbought. The last time RSI 7 was that high on this index was April 9 of this year, which just happened to mark the top of the intermediate bull trend.
2nd_ave
The financials were particularly weak on Friday, and they will likely lead any further market decline. Look at the action on Friday in Bank of America [BAC], gapping down big on huge volume and closing at $13.98 (-9.16%). Citigroup [C], gapping down and closing at 3.90 (-6.25%). Wells Fargo [WFC] gapping down and closing at $26.24 [-5.65%].
Some of the major U.S. money center banks are insolvent, imo. They have hidden their losses and to this day have refused to come clean on the true status of their balance sheets. The gig will be up soon enough. You can only hide and paper over the losses for so long.
Current market volatility, and more importantly, Friday's most recent price action in the S&P 500 is worrisome. The S&P 500 index, which closed at 1064.88 on Friday, was rejected early in the trading day at the 50 DMA (1090) as well as the downtrend line drawn from the April 2010 highs. What's worse is that this decline happened on stronger than normal volume.
Over the weekend, I've been reviewing charts from the 1929-1932 time frame and comparing them to the current situation. In particular, after the initial crash which occurred in the latter half of 1929, the DJIA then rose 48% in roughly 5 months.
But the head and shoulders pattern that formed after that is what has me on guard. You can go to Yahoo Finance and pull up a chart of the DJIA from that time period. Pay particular attention to the pattern that formed from February to late May of 1930 - a clear H&S pattern.
Now compare the current chart of the S&P or Nasdaq Composite to the 1930 chart and the similarities are eerie. This doesn't mean that the market will roll over and drop in a straight line from here; but caution is certainly in order.
Maintain tight stops on any long positions and use proper hedging instruments. Things could get dicey very soon.
Just one person's opinion, as always.
BP is shortable in the $53-$54 range, for a move back to $41-$42, IMO. This oil spill is MUCH larger and detrimental than what has been reported. I am not confident that the dividend is safe - they may have to cut the dividend to pay for this disaster. Surely Transocean (RIG) will also have to contribute and will be hurt, but this is primarily BP's problem.
Recent price action in the SPX, DJIA, TRAN, and COMPX have all been impressive. What's lacking is volume. Volume shows us the degree of conviction and strength in a move. This most recent rally has largely been devoid of significant volume to the upside.
I remain suspect of the validity of this move to the top of the range until volume comes in size and confirms.
Typically, volume precedes price action, and we simply haven't seen it develop in the major indices.