"As concerns precious metals, Mickey noted that there are 1716 Juniors w/market cap less than $500 million of which 80% are exposed to gold while 50% of those reported news on their gold property in the last year. He indicates that only 1-2% of Juniors will ever make a mine. A minimum of 2-3 grams per ton will make an open pit mine while 5-6 grams per tons at a minimum are needed for an underground mine."
A real testament to how difficult this field is at that market cap size.
Like your idea, let's pick 4-8 of these people and hang them on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington and run it for three days on TV like the Kennedy assasination and we can all morn for the country.
I think you should use mental stops so the algos do not know where you are. Mental stops require you to have strong discipline. As to where to set stops is a very personal decision, as with the market there are many approaches.
However, and I know this is basic math, without understanding of how lossess work against you you will not be successful if you let lossess get out of hand. If you do you will be fighting the facts below.
Personally, I very seldom ever, ever let a position go past -15%. People just should not allow a portfolio to drop 50% on them if they want to survive long-term. FWIW
First column is % loss of initial capital
Second column is% of gain on balance
required to recover
Thanks girls and guys for the posts, brought me back to the days of my youth when we would drive up to PA for a weekend of camping, bluegrass music and sometimes slipping and sliding in mud due to rain, good memories indeed.
Bear E, just to clarify, those are not my words but Sinclair's from Pierre's post.
"Do not try to convince anyone of your position. All you need to be is right and silent."
Also, I do not read it as you cannot discuss ideas with other people. Discussion can be a excellent learning tool and this blog is an example of that.
Frequently, I have a different take on positions people take and express my honest opinion as to what I see. In this instance, I'm definitely beginng to think that remaining silent is the right choice. I'm not into cheerleading and each person's take is valid per his/her perception.
Bear except for the quote by Goethe which as been posted on my trading desk for the last seven years. In my mind the most important part of that post are points 1 through 7 that is the meat and can make/save you money.
“Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do."
-- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe - (1749-1832)
1. Sell 1/3 into strength only, TA guided.
2. Buy back that 1/3 on weakness only, TA guided.
3. To sell a trend line break down means you are selling weakness and have not sold strength. Do it often enough and you will have nothing to do anything with. Gold is either in a bull market or not. It is in a generational bull market from my perspective.
4. Practice the Green Doctrine.
5. Take the 30 minutes that is required to learn all I have offered in the “keep it simple” TA method.
6. Fundamentals precede Technicals. If the Fundamental cases do not support the Technical cases take a pass.
7. Think for yourself. Walk away from gurus, run from experts.
Do not try to convince anyone of your position. All you need to be is right and silent.
edit: My mistake, except for the qoute, these are the words of Jim Sinclair as culled from my March 2008 post as reposte by Pierre.
P.S. I do think that the only constant in life is change. And how one adapts to that change has a large influence on their quality of life.
Speaking of a quality of life, I'm going outside in the sunshine to enjoy life and mingle with friends and strangers at my favorite gathering place. Have a great day everyone.
Actually its in the middle of the night, have to wait for morning.
Bill said, "Almost every politician is now a bought-and-paid-for agent of the schemers who control society today. I am certain that the authors of the United States Constitution never intended for that to happen."
Dave said, "In fact, I daresay a critical part of what Cara Community is all about is understanding this one fact: trades are exercises in probabilities, not certainties."
Yes but, the quants of the world (basically most of the world) trade off of probabilities through the use of logic. Some of the smartest people in the world are trading securities and they cannot beat the market. One of the reason's is they are trading amongst themselves and not everyone can win.
Another intriquing concept is that to win you need something more then probabilities and logic that something else is most likely in our heads and we as traders fail to work on this tool as much as logic.
There has been a great deal written of late
regarding the collapsing Baltic Freight Index, with those
writing about that weakness making the case that that
collapse speaks volumes about the state of the global
economy. This is nonsense, for the collapsing Baltic Dry
Freight Index speaks only to the idiocy and greed and
very poor timing of ship owners and nothing more.
We being this discussion by stating for the record that
we believe it was we here at TGL and Jim Grant of the
eponymous newsletter who brought the Baltic Freight
Indices to Wall Street’s attention more than a decade
and a half ago. We wrote about this index as an
indicator of economic strength or weakness when no
one anywhere, other than a few mavens hanging around
the Baltic Exchange in London, even knew of its
existence. Then it was indeed a fine and useful
economic tool. It rose ahead of economic growth; it fell
ahead of economic weakness. Its worth was proven. We
embraced it enthusiastically and we extolled its virtues.
However, in the past several years, as is the wont of
such excellent indicators, its usefulness has waned to
the point where we’ve not even paid attention to its
plunge. Why? Because the index has fallen for the very
simple reason that there were far, far, FAR too many
ships brought on line when the BFI rose from its low at
or near 2000 back in ’05-’06 to its high near 11,500 in
’08. Ship owners became stupidly greedy believing that
these good times would continue ad infinitum. As the say
in New Orleans, bon temps roulez.
Worse, the banks that supported them became even
more ignorant and financed those dreams. Ships were
built and they were big ships and bigger. Ships were
being scrapped, but the ships being scrapped were
capable of carrying 2-5 thousand TEUs (Twenty foot
export equivalents as they are referred to) and they were
being replaced by ships capable of carrying 15-20
thousand TEUs! We are not math whizzes here at TGL,
but even we know that one has to scrap a lot more 2-5
thousand TEU carriers to offset one carrying 17
thousand.
Further, the cost of moving a ship carrying 15-20
thousand TEU’s is not much different than that of one
carrying 1/10th as many. Once the ship is underway, the
fuelling cost of the larger ship is marginally higher than
that of the smaller. Given the numbers of large ships
contracted for and built over the course of the past two
or three years, the over-supply of space-aboard-ship is
high and is rising. Greed and stupidity have trumped
economic wisdom.
Thus, where others are pointing to the weakness in the
Baltic Dry Index… it has fallen 11,500 in ’08, to 4,500 in
early ’10 to 800 presently!!!!.... as evidence of economic
weakness we suggest instead that it is a simple inverse
index of stupidity and nothing more. Rather, we count
the numbers of TEU’s moving through the port facilities
around the world as the true signal of economic strength
or weakness, and those numbers are rising, not falling.
The BFI was a fine index to watch fifteen years ago; it
ain’t no more, unless you are trading shipping owner’s
greed and stupidity. ‘nuf said.
Going short the Yen, yesterday Japan had its first annual trade deficit since 1980. The countries demographics are deteriorating which will affect its ability to internally fund its deficits. Japan’s debt to GDP make the PIGS look tasty.
Long YCS
Nat Gas today is probably where gold was 20 years ago, it could be very wise to buy some and just forget about it for 10 or 20 years.
I agree completely that a 1% fed funds rate would be a better policy. It amazes me that guys like Evans (fed gov) makes statements like we need these ZIRP rates and more QE and that savers have to expect to suffer pain just like everyone else. How do they expect the economy to pick up when retirees and savers have no discretionary income?
Westcoaster, Slams link free through most interenet cable providers:
That's frustrating, but try this, MSFT tech number is 1-800-936-5700. Call and explain the situation and see if they will help. I did this with some problems a few months ago and they were helpful. Still a frustration experience.
Thanks for this! What struck me is the following:
"As concerns precious metals, Mickey noted that there are 1716 Juniors w/market cap less than $500 million of which 80% are exposed to gold while 50% of those reported news on their gold property in the last year. He indicates that only 1-2% of Juniors will ever make a mine. A minimum of 2-3 grams per ton will make an open pit mine while 5-6 grams per tons at a minimum are needed for an underground mine."
A real testament to how difficult this field is at that market cap size.
Thanks again.
Like your idea, let's pick 4-8 of these people and hang them on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington and run it for three days on TV like the Kennedy assasination and we can all morn for the country.
NYUGrad for prosecutor.
Just Joking!!
Rubin's latest:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGTmzKOcAkI&feature...
Glass–Steagall Act stops all this stuff.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass%E2%80%93Steagal...
Excellent points Vad, thanks for sharing.
I think you should use mental stops so the algos do not know where you are. Mental stops require you to have strong discipline. As to where to set stops is a very personal decision, as with the market there are many approaches.
However, and I know this is basic math, without understanding of how lossess work against you you will not be successful if you let lossess get out of hand. If you do you will be fighting the facts below.
Personally, I very seldom ever, ever let a position go past -15%. People just should not allow a portfolio to drop 50% on them if they want to survive long-term. FWIW
First column is % loss of initial capital
Second column is% of gain on balance
required to recover
5 5.3
10 11.1
15 17.6
20 25
25 33.3
30 42.9
35 53.8
40 66.7
45 81.8
50 100
Thanks girls and guys for the posts, brought me back to the days of my youth when we would drive up to PA for a weekend of camping, bluegrass music and sometimes slipping and sliding in mud due to rain, good memories indeed.
RIP Earl
Bear E, just to clarify, those are not my words but Sinclair's from Pierre's post.
"Do not try to convince anyone of your position. All you need to be is right and silent."
Also, I do not read it as you cannot discuss ideas with other people. Discussion can be a excellent learning tool and this blog is an example of that.
Frequently, I have a different take on positions people take and express my honest opinion as to what I see. In this instance, I'm definitely beginng to think that remaining silent is the right choice. I'm not into cheerleading and each person's take is valid per his/her perception.
Bear except for the quote by Goethe which as been posted on my trading desk for the last seven years. In my mind the most important part of that post are points 1 through 7 that is the meat and can make/save you money.
Pierre, thanks for posting.
“Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do."
-- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe - (1749-1832)
1. Sell 1/3 into strength only, TA guided.
2. Buy back that 1/3 on weakness only, TA guided.
3. To sell a trend line break down means you are selling weakness and have not sold strength. Do it often enough and you will have nothing to do anything with. Gold is either in a bull market or not. It is in a generational bull market from my perspective.
4. Practice the Green Doctrine.
5. Take the 30 minutes that is required to learn all I have offered in the “keep it simple” TA method.
6. Fundamentals precede Technicals. If the Fundamental cases do not support the Technical cases take a pass.
7. Think for yourself. Walk away from gurus, run from experts.
Do not try to convince anyone of your position. All you need to be is right and silent.
edit: My mistake, except for the qoute, these are the words of Jim Sinclair as culled from my March 2008 post as reposte by Pierre.
I think I'll take a pass Dave, thanks.
P.S. I do think that the only constant in life is change. And how one adapts to that change has a large influence on their quality of life.
Speaking of a quality of life, I'm going outside in the sunshine to enjoy life and mingle with friends and strangers at my favorite gathering place. Have a great day everyone.
Actually its in the middle of the night, have to wait for morning.
Morning has Broken
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TWd3skb-Rw
Bill said, "Almost every politician is now a bought-and-paid-for agent of the schemers who control society today. I am certain that the authors of the United States Constitution never intended for that to happen."
Right on Bill, enjoy the event.
Dave, Sinclair has a very specific reason for why he thinks gold will not come down and crash like before, do you know what it is?
Dave said, "In fact, I daresay a critical part of what Cara Community is all about is understanding this one fact: trades are exercises in probabilities, not certainties."
Yes but, the quants of the world (basically most of the world) trade off of probabilities through the use of logic. Some of the smartest people in the world are trading securities and they cannot beat the market. One of the reason's is they are trading amongst themselves and not everyone can win.
Another intriquing concept is that to win you need something more then probabilities and logic that something else is most likely in our heads and we as traders fail to work on this tool as much as logic.
For the port of LA
http://www.portoflosangeles.org/maritime/stats.asp
Zed, no I do not.
Shipping from Gartman, FWIW
There has been a great deal written of late
regarding the collapsing Baltic Freight Index, with those
writing about that weakness making the case that that
collapse speaks volumes about the state of the global
economy. This is nonsense, for the collapsing Baltic Dry
Freight Index speaks only to the idiocy and greed and
very poor timing of ship owners and nothing more.
We being this discussion by stating for the record that
we believe it was we here at TGL and Jim Grant of the
eponymous newsletter who brought the Baltic Freight
Indices to Wall Street’s attention more than a decade
and a half ago. We wrote about this index as an
indicator of economic strength or weakness when no
one anywhere, other than a few mavens hanging around
the Baltic Exchange in London, even knew of its
existence. Then it was indeed a fine and useful
economic tool. It rose ahead of economic growth; it fell
ahead of economic weakness. Its worth was proven. We
embraced it enthusiastically and we extolled its virtues.
However, in the past several years, as is the wont of
such excellent indicators, its usefulness has waned to
the point where we’ve not even paid attention to its
plunge. Why? Because the index has fallen for the very
simple reason that there were far, far, FAR too many
ships brought on line when the BFI rose from its low at
or near 2000 back in ’05-’06 to its high near 11,500 in
’08. Ship owners became stupidly greedy believing that
these good times would continue ad infinitum. As the say
in New Orleans, bon temps roulez.
Worse, the banks that supported them became even
more ignorant and financed those dreams. Ships were
built and they were big ships and bigger. Ships were
being scrapped, but the ships being scrapped were
capable of carrying 2-5 thousand TEUs (Twenty foot
export equivalents as they are referred to) and they were
being replaced by ships capable of carrying 15-20
thousand TEUs! We are not math whizzes here at TGL,
but even we know that one has to scrap a lot more 2-5
thousand TEU carriers to offset one carrying 17
thousand.
Further, the cost of moving a ship carrying 15-20
thousand TEU’s is not much different than that of one
carrying 1/10th as many. Once the ship is underway, the
fuelling cost of the larger ship is marginally higher than
that of the smaller. Given the numbers of large ships
contracted for and built over the course of the past two
or three years, the over-supply of space-aboard-ship is
high and is rising. Greed and stupidity have trumped
economic wisdom.
Thus, where others are pointing to the weakness in the
Baltic Dry Index… it has fallen 11,500 in ’08, to 4,500 in
early ’10 to 800 presently!!!!.... as evidence of economic
weakness we suggest instead that it is a simple inverse
index of stupidity and nothing more. Rather, we count
the numbers of TEU’s moving through the port facilities
around the world as the true signal of economic strength
or weakness, and those numbers are rising, not falling.
The BFI was a fine index to watch fifteen years ago; it
ain’t no more, unless you are trading shipping owner’s
greed and stupidity. ‘nuf said.
Agree with your concerns.
MF Globals missing cash mostly accounted for
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story.php?id=302...
Going short the Yen, yesterday Japan had its first annual trade deficit since 1980. The countries demographics are deteriorating which will affect its ability to internally fund its deficits. Japan’s debt to GDP make the PIGS look tasty.
Long YCS
Nat Gas today is probably where gold was 20 years ago, it could be very wise to buy some and just forget about it for 10 or 20 years.
I agree completely that a 1% fed funds rate would be a better policy. It amazes me that guys like Evans (fed gov) makes statements like we need these ZIRP rates and more QE and that savers have to expect to suffer pain just like everyone else. How do they expect the economy to pick up when retirees and savers have no discretionary income?
Westcoaster, Slams link free through most interenet cable providers:
http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index/_/source/espn3/...
has all the replays and is awesome.
That's frustrating, but try this, MSFT tech number is 1-800-936-5700. Call and explain the situation and see if they will help. I did this with some problems a few months ago and they were helpful. Still a frustration experience.
I still think MS Office is the best.