CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

Supporting my call for a market cycle bottom for the goldminers, please note that the past week and month volume of GDXJ and GDX is the highest in their history.

London exchange-listed miners are still indicating issues this morning, but I believe the precious metals market is, in fact, going through a cycle bottom process this week.

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CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Another day of good economic data, yet the S&P trades lower, below the support I showed you yesterday, which is bearish.

The other day I mentioned my likely target of 1260 should the market break lower. The chart below shows how I came up with that number. 1260 is roughly the following: prior resistance level, the 61.8% retracement which overlaps perfectly with the measured move calculation shown on the chart.

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

I am perplexed and hence have given the matter much thought this month. What underlies the present malaise in global equity markets is not, in my view, caused by worries over Greece or even a slowing of the global economy. This time we don’t even have the banksters to blame. The causative factor of crashing prices in some sectors today is an entirely new one.

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[8:30am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Yesterday, it was risk off as traders worried about the Greek tragedy taking place before our eyes and its effect on the eurozone. The US Dollar was bought for the 10th day in a row and stocks and gold suffered for it.

The S&P 500 is at a critical juncture. I am reposting the S&P 500 chart from yesterday. You can see how the 1340 area that I targeted as 1st support held yesterday. This is a key area – it could move bounce or fail at this area.

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[9:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Stock and commodity futures are lower this morning due to worries about Greece pulling the $USD higher.

Here is a repeat chart on gold. Clearly the supports have held so far, but prices are on the edge so we shall see how it goes today.

The second chart shows that gold’s weekly cycle count is at a timing band for a turn higher. From low to low, gold averages about 20 weeks so time is on the bullish side of the argument.