[7:34am ET] Last evening, our friend David Patch got into a shouting match with senior level SEC staff as he claimed “they were making excuses as to why it was not their fault if people are too dumb and invest in fraudulent companies.”
He then sent SEC Director Mary Shapiro and several of her senior staff a letter that I published here, asking you to please follow up.
This morning, Patchie sent me a compilation of his studies that he has passed on to the SEC since September.
http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/?q=node/908
There are many students of the market who read this blog and participate here who are not only trying to understand how to successfully trade but who are also questioning why the capital market is so dysfunctional. David Patch is telling you why. Yesterday I too laid out for you in simple language major concerns I have had over the past 30 years.
http://caracommunity.com/content/caras-commentary-community-chat-monday-...
The market system and its regulatory system is broke and needs to be fixed from the ground up. I wrote that in a prominent article in the Wall Street Journal published June 2, 2006, well ahead of the crash, and right at the time that those who control the market were parachuting into the Secretary’s office of the US Treasury Department the then CEO of Goldman Sachs in order to assure the status quo.
You all know the result.
Then we had the Naked Shorting and Bernard Madoff scandals in which the SEC has steadfastly refused to investigate the complaints of industry experts.
You are stunned that such things can happen? Well, David Patch has a website that you need to be aware of, and support. Started in late 2003, it is appropriately called InvestigateTheSEC.com. A few months later, unaware of David’s work, I started to blog, focusing part of it along the same lines that capital markets are under attack and the securities regulators are permitting it.
The stated Mission of InvestigateTheSEC.com includes the following notes (written 2007):
• The origination of InvestigatetheSEC.com in late 2003 was collaborative effort limited to the issues of illegal naked short selling abuses and the lack of accountability at Federal levels. It was an effort to petition members of Congress to investigate the internal processes and controls of a Federal agency we believed to be corrupt and conflicted. Our goals in this respect have been accomplished. In the 4+ years of operation, volunteer efforts have evolved to include market corruption at the highest levels. As exposure surfaced at the regulatory and Congressional oversight levels, volunteers began researching and archiving publications that illustrated corruption beyond just that of illegal naked short sale neglect. Today the site reflects this new direction.
• Continuing efforts will now focus on the exposure of Wall Street abuses and regulatory neglect in a variety of areas including insider trading, market manipulation, and conflicts of interest at the regulatory levels. As other media sources turn a blind eye to "system" corruption, the focus of our attention will remain on the Wall Street "system" and not the public companies themselves. We have been and will continue to be the frontrunners in exposing new areas of internal Wall Street corruption. The Smoke and Mirrors of a captured system are deceiving the public and it is our intent to expose such.
There are always reasons why things happen. When they get out of control, it’s because checks and balances are missing or have been purposefully removed by players who are gaming the system. I hope you read my notes yesterday about conflict of interest and integrity and why investors are leaving the US capital market. The market is in crisis and needs leadership. It needs an effective regulator.
Now we are told the SEC has recruited a 29-year old Goldman Sachs staffer, a man who has had three jobs in his young life, a non-lawyer, to head up the enforcement decision. The mind boggles.
Other than moving our capital to another country and sinking the US Dollar further, what can we do about this dire situation? We – you, I, Patchie, and all the people we know -- can step into the leadership vacuum and make demands of legislators and regulators until they become black and blue in the face. We need them to either take the necessary action to clean up the mess or acknowledge they are part of it.
If you missed my blog from last evening, I will republish it here so you can forward this blog link (which will include your Discourse comments) to all your friends and ask them to pass it on. We need to start a grassroots rebellion that puts America back on the tracks. Nobody else, apparently, is going to do it.
It is time the public spoke up
Submitted by Bill Cara (1051 comments) on Mon, 10/19/2009 - 21:32 #49738
Our friend Patchie is turning up the heat on the SEC. He has written the Chairman a strong letter. I think Americans out to follow up by writing her your support for Dave Patch, and, while you are at it, let her know what you think of her hiring young Mr. Storch, the "whiz-kid" from Goldman Sachs, to head up SEC Enforcement. That too is an outrage.
Mary Shapiro's email address is shapirom@sec.gov
And while you are at it, make sure you cc the following:
khuzamir@sec.gov
oig@sec.gov
KotzD@sec.gov
cainc@sec.gov
paredest@sec.gov
caseyk@sec.gov
beckerd@sec.gov
aguilarlu@sec.gov
waltere@sec.govChairman Schapiro,
I am drafting this memo based on a recent discussion I have had with SEC Associate Director Charles Cain and his supervisor regarding the trading activity in SpongeTech. What I came to conclude in this rather heated discussion is that the SEC does not feel the need to protect investors with any sense of urgency despite the SEC’s full knowledge that fraud and deception is in fact taking place at corporate levels. The SEC’s position being that naïve and foolish investors deserve their losses until such time as the Commission decides to act upon the evidence before them that fraud in fact exists.
This is a very sad state of affairs for an agency whose primary responsibility is to protect the investing public.
As you are aware, I became involved in the trading activities in SpongeTech based on comments made by co-workers with little trade experience in the US capital markets. What I found disturbed me enough that in September I decided to research this issue and report out my findings to yourself, your staff, the Division of Enforcement, and the media. Within a few days of research I exposed what was clear and apparent fraud. Fraud the SEC can not deny exists.
Unfortunately, despite the evidence, the SEC does not run on similar timetables as those looking to protect investors and many weeks later, the market in SpongeTech continues to trade. Today for example, more that 225 Million shares trade on the grey markets at an average price of $0.03. ($6.75 Million)
What concerns me is that the SEC suspended trading in this market for 10-days based on valid concerns and now that the 10-days has expired the SEC has re-opened trading despite the knowledge that the trading is based on false and misleading statements made by the company. According to attorney Cain and his supervisor, those that choose to trade this market on the grey markets do so at their own risk. The SEC had halted the stock thus revealing the risk and thus anybody who trades thereafter assumes such risk.
While this may sound like a novel approach to denial and lack of accountability, it is blatantly irresponsible for the SEC to respond with such callousness.
The public expects full transparency and in this case full transparency from the SEC in findings they have captured during a 10-day trade halt. The SEC claimed in the trading suspension that there was suspicion of inaccurate financial reporting and inaccurate disclosure of customer information. The SEC highlighted that the 10-day trade suspension would investigate these specific matters. What is evident is that the SEC may have found wrongdoing within this trade suspension and wrongdoing within the formal investigation period, but that the SEC has no intention of disclosing such information to the public.
Instead of disclosing to the public that fraud had taken place, investigator Cain and his supervisors felt that this market should reopen trading without any transparency of evidence that wrongdoing had taken place.
Investors (many naïve people) put their trust in the SEC and trust in disclosure of wrongdoing if such was identified. A lack of disclosure means that no wrongdoing occurred as ‘the SEC would not open trade on a fraudulent company”.
But what we know is the SEC does know that the public filings are fraudulent, that the reported earnings are fraudulent, and that company insiders are dumping shares in a pump and dump scheme. What we all know (including the SEC) is that any trading taking place is creating more future losses (due to fraud) to the investing public.
The SEC knows this is fraud, the NY Post reported this as a fraud, and the transfer agent and former attorney reported this as fraud and yet, in all these months the SEC simply let this fraud trade and victims created.
I wonder, at over $6 million in trading volume a day taking place, how far will the SEC witness the victim list grow before the “protect the investing public” part of the mission statement becomes a reality. How many financially strapped families will you help to destroy before the agency decides it is time to step in and stop the madness?
Attorney Cain and supervisors did not get the message. If I read them correctly, they did not get the message of the past few years. The people don’t trust this agency and they don’t trust it because we are all expected to be transparent in our statements and transparent in our trading. The SEC wants insiders to speak out on fraud and yet, the SEC is incompetent in acting on such disclosures.
The SEC puts people in harms way and it is inexcusable. People with no financial incentive and are not paid to out these frauds should not have a greater passion for stepping out than those PAID to do just that.
When does a cleansing of the incompetent take place? When does SEC transparency in fraud detection take a front seat? For far too long the SEC has expected others to act within reasonable time and yet the agency that polices the watch is delinquent more time than not --- and they make excuses for it.
Final note----If civil or criminal charges against SpongeTech executives take place in the future, after all the public disclosures I have presented, I will seek legal grounds of a lawsuit against the Commission and Commission staff for negligence and aiding and abetting fraud. The agency can no longer be immune for negligence in the face of evidence. The $6 Million in losses today is the responsibility of the SEC as it was the SEC that gave their stamp of approval for opening up trading in a fraudulent company.
/Dave Patch
http://caracommunity.com/content/we-need-rebuild-us-securities-act-ground
Comments
Cat Crushes Earnings
Analyst Estimates $.05 Cat $.65 trading up $3 in pre-market. See where it ends up today.
Guidance Raising...
I haven't been tallying...but observation seems to be that the majority of companies are raising guidance for full-year and next quarter.
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
Released on 10/20/2009 7:45:00 AM For wk10/17, 2009
Prior Actual
Store Sales - W/W change 0.6 % 0.2 %
Store Sales - Y/Y 1.0 % 2.8 %
Highlights
ICSC-Goldman reports strong chain-store sales in the Oct. 17 week, up 0.2 percent from the prior week for a plus 2.8 percent year-on-year rate that's the strongest by far of the year and the strongest since August last year. Retail sales proved better-than-expected in September and, based on this report, may beat expectations in October as well. Redbook, which has reported strength in prior weeks, will post its report for the Oct. 17 week at 8:55 ET.
oil - uco
bought at 14.28 pre market - api coming out after market & overnight oil traded to 80 - its off this morning
Re: Cat Crushes Earnings
Caterpillar (CAT Quote) notched a third-quarter profit of $404 million, or 64 cents a share, down from a year ago but well ahead than the Thomson Reuters average estimate of 6 cents a share. Revenue fell 44% from a year ago to $7.29 billion, compared to the consensus target of $7.48 billion. Caterpillar also offered rosy guidance, revising its full-year earnings range to $1.85 to $2.05 a share, excluding redundancy costs, from the previous range of $1.15 to $2.25 a share.
CAT earning beats estimate 1100% and revenue missed 190 million. Stock jumps more than 3 bucks at 61.27. Based on full year earning, CAT has P/E more than 30.
WSJ Link
Just classic Bill,
Prescient - when reading your debate in the WSJ from 2006, the current headline at the top has Galleon Investors withdrawing money, "Investors have sought to withdraw about $1.3 billion of the $3.7 billion in assets Galleon manages, traders say." I wonder if that amount of money is more than just "puddles?"
Also, an answer to where to take our trading - we simply create an electronic exchange for small cap companies to list their stocks - outside the purview of NY and the DTCC. No shares to naked short sell, no fail-to-delivers, no HFT, everything settled daily, similar to the CMEgroup. I think if small companies had an avenue outside of NYSE that guaranteed hedgies couldn't naked short sell - they would delist at NYSE in a heartbeat. People ultimately vote with their money. I would put in 6 figures towards this endeavor.
Housing Starts
Released on 10/20/2009 8:30:00 AM For September, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Starts - Level - SAAR 0.598 M 0.615 M 0.590 M to 0.630 M 0.590 M
Permits - Level - SAAR 0.579 M 0.573 M
Highlights
Housing starts look positive in September from August but not after taking into account a downward revision to the prior month. Housing starts in September rose 0.5 percent, following a revised 1.0 percent decline in August. The September pace of 0.590 million units annualized was down 28.2 percent year-on-year and fell short of the consensus forecast for 0.615 million units. Importantly, August was revised down from 0.598 million units to 0.587 million units annualized. The advance in September was led by the single-family component which increased 3.9 percent after dropping 4.7 percent the month before. In contrast, the single-family component fell 15.2 percent after rising 20.7 percent in August.
Housing permits slipped 1.2 percent, following a 2.8 percent rise in August. Permits in the latest month stood at an annualized 0.573 million units and were down 28.9 percent on a year-ago basis.
Markets appear to have gotten a little too optimistic about the upward trend in starts continuing without any bumps in the road. While the downward revision to August may be a little disappointing to traders, the net result through September is still a nice, moderate recovery from the recession bottom.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - New construction on U.S. housing units was essentially flat in September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000, as a big drop in multifamily units was offset by an increase in starts of single-family homes, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday.
With September's 0.5% increase, housing starts have been flat for four straight months after a big rebound earlier in the year from historic lows. Since the bottom in January, housing starts have risen 21%.
August's starts were revised lower to a 587,000 pace from 598,000 previously reported.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting a slightly stronger report, with starts forecasted to rise to a 607,000 rate.
Starts of single-family homes rose 3.9% to a 501,000 rate, while starts of multifamily units dropped 15.2% to 89,000.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning from Pennsylvania, home of the soon to be National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies.
New:
ATVI - RBC Initiates Coverage with an Outperform
CTSH - William Blair Initiates Coverage with an Outperform
ERTS - RBC Initiates Coverage with an Outperform
Resumed:
AMZN - Oppenheimer Resumes Coverage with an Outperform. PT = $130
oil - uco
i think i was a little early on that - still, dollar down, so i am still confident we will see 80 again today - maybe at the end of the day to line up over night
CAT
The last few days have been great for CAT topped off by today's earnings. I bought in at $54.40 on Friday and sold out at $58.09 yesterday. I took my profit and ran. I didn't want to hold over until this morning and run the risk of losing everything I gained.
Holding until earnings is a crap shoot. Of course, I could have made a lot more but no woulda, shoulda, coulda for me. I'm delighted with the profit I pocketed.
This market is truly oversold but it is difficult to go against the trend. Resistence points for the S&P are anywhere from 1100 to 1200 depending on who you listen to. Negative divergences are setting up all over the place but the market keeps rising. Do you have a fear of lofty heights? Try standing on the edge of the Grand Canyon and you'll know what I mean! I have!
Nested Hurst Envelopes
Aucourant
Thanks for sharing the details of your ongoing cycle work. I dug out some notes from some work that I did a few years back when I was using MetaStock and the Fast Fourrier for cycle analysis. Of course, the intent of my work was probably different from yours now, but perhaps it might give you something to think about:
1. After looking at hundreds(?) of charts with the Fourrier, I found that what I really wanted was something to help my trading; so, I started looking only at what was generally given as the longest cycle length(LT) - which most usually it was either 256 days or 363~ days. Note: Long term(LT) cycles contain the moves of shorter term cycles; that is, the shorter term cycles are additive/subtractive with the result being the LT cycle - that’s why longer term Ma’s show less “noise”..
2. Because Price moves usually will generally trend upward early in a LT cycle and start to fall downward late in that cycle, and because I really didn’t want to fool with cycle building as much as I wanted something easy for trading purposes, I would divide into eighth’s the LT cycle and use that shorter term length (such as 32, or 256/8) as my signal line (ie Ma(32)).
3. I later reduced this effort for most stocks to using the Ma(32) as a signalfor a change of trend when crossing the Ma(256). It still looks pretty good!
Attached chart1 shows $SPX: Price, Ma(256), Ma(363), and signal Ma(32) over about 20 years.
Attached chart2 shows the same as above for only for the last 5 years for clarity.
Hope this is as much fun for you as it was for me.
Storch/ Mr. Clean?
Maybe GS ran an audit of all potential internal candidates capable of passing a Senate inquiry regarding ethics, and a 29-year-old non-lawyer was the best they could do.
OPM fine, Mine...no
http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/articl...
"So much for having some skin in the game.
While investors typically like to see that mutual fund managers are eating a bit of their own cooking and investing in the funds they run, it turns out that the majority of fund managers actually do not have a single dollar of their personal assets in their funds."
Cara 100 Update
BA - Downgraded to Underweight @ Morgan Stanley
Interesting update on dark pools
Tuesday, October 20, 2009 9:07:00 AM
NYSE Euronext To Provide Transparency for Alternative Trading Systems
- beginning next month, it will provide a means for participating broker-dealers alternative trading systems (ATSs) and off-exchange market centers to create transparency regarding volume and individual dark pool activity by allowing the firms to print trades on the FINRA/NYSE Trade Reporting Facility (TRF) and display the daily activity of each trading venue on NYSE.com.
- NYSE Euronext has been discussing the idea with a number of firms that operate ATSs and off-exchange trading venues, and Barclays Capital, GETCO, Goldman Sachs Execution & Clearing, L.P., Knight Equity Markets, L.P. and UBS Investment Bank have volunteered to begin reporting their respective venues activity to the FINRA/NYSE TRF in November 2009. Other firms have indicated an interest in NYSE Euronexts transparency initiative and are establishing the necessary technology to begin participating in the program in the coming weeks.
- The daily trading activity volume published by the FINRA/NYSE TRF will be based on trades reported to the FINRA/NYSE TRF, which follow FINRAs trade-reporting rules. Basing the published volume strictly on trade reports will address some of the problems associated with voluntary reporting by ATSs of their own volume, such as counting both sides of a trade, and counting trades that are routed by not executed. Trades reported to FINRA/NYSE TRF will be single-counted and matched-only. All ATS trades are currently reported to an industry TRF, which in turn drives the various time and sales market data feeds.
Hopefully this black hole will be closed.
historic relationship between gold & silver??
with gold hitting new highs, and being in the camp that it will go higher, does anyone know what the historic relationship between gold and silver is? It seems to me that silver is lagging the other metals and actually has practical uses like copper
Cara 100 Update (Final)
GRMN - price target, estimates higher at Barclays. Price target increased to $37 from $30. 2009 and 2010 EPS estimates raised to $2.80 from $2.73 and to $2.45 from $2.25, respectively. Reiterate Equal Weight rating.
Remember ' The Mummy ' movie ?
Now, I'm not saying Kashkari was in Hollywood a few years ago, but.............
Letters to Shapiro etc.
Would it not be better to ask Shapiro to investigate naked shorting as per the Market Oracle piece on Bear Stearns (linked here last night), than a small company like Spongetech?
i feel like they are fading us
i dont "believe" the early morning fade - i think this is a little profit taking - volume on my watch lists are anemic
gold & silver relationship ???
sorry to post again, but i know someone out there knows the historic norms - anyone know a good website to research these relationships?
I do feel that the total exchange volumes for the next 10
trading days will point to the future...
In Like Flint: SSG/TYP/FXP>>21.45/11.17/8.10
...
Re: gold & silver relationship ???
from Historical Charts of Interest:
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/xaujgollt.gif
from StockCharts (requires Java), click on Go once you're there:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$GOLD,$SILVER
Cheers
Lot of gold and silver upgrades this morning
I saw this posted at http://www.goldalert.com/gold_price_blog.php . Usually analysts are late to the party, so while I am still long-term bullish on gold, it may be due for a correction soon. Also more gold mining companies are issuing secondaries, which I've learned companies usually do either when they have to or when they would be foolish not to.
Some observations and trading decisions
What I posted in trading room a few min ago is a departure from main strategy over last few months so I thought I'd share.
[10:06] {Threei} let's make a little pause and look around
Here is what I see and what makes me hesitant:
we opened the day with two huge earning beats by two bellweathers,
went into red after that.
Another ovservation over past few days:
volume sharply increased on a rare red day last week,
and diminished again on green days.
You know I am not the one to call trend reversal lightly
but this is more and more looking like topping action.
Also, you may have noticed somewhat increased number of short calls lately
and it's not like I made a conscious decision to start calling more shorts,
it's just that short setups started presenting themselves more frequently.
All above is pointing to signs of reversal coming BUT (there is always a but)
we have seen false reversals a few times over the summer,
we didn't trust those, I continuously stated that those were just pullbacks,
and there is a probablility, albeit decreasing, that this one may turn out a fake too.
If it does, I don't want to get caught attempting to short just another bull flag,
and it does not look to me like bull flag at the moment,
neither volume configuration nor this going red on good earnings fit the profile.
So, here is what I want to do:
1. stop guessing whether it's reversal or pullback
2. observe carefully for confirmation of either
3. take setups on stock by stock and minute by minute basis
4. stay nimble and limit expectations to scalps unless I feel otherwise strongly enough to call it "not a scalp"
5. even in thiose cases partial out at 1:1 and trail stop to b/e religiously, just as we did with CAT short
6. look into increase of range trades instead of range breaks
Re: Some observations and trading decisions
Thanks for sharing.
WMT
Bought some at $51.88. This goes along with my theory that the blue chip laggards will be in favor.
Re: Some observations and trading decisions
Vad,
I think you nailed it.
Re: gold & silver relationship ???
Dr Strangelove - Thank you, that is VERY helpfull - the gap seems to be widening - gold overvalued? or silver undervalued? pairs trade?
Re: gold & silver relationship ???
Here's another one you might want to look into, lots of very long term charts. You can also find the link to sharelynx.com, top right on this site, note the link in the above post from Dr.Strangelove didn't work for me.
http://www.chartsrus.com/
Re: gold & silver relationship ???
careful... if there is a sell-off of precious metals, then Silver will lead on the downside.
Re: gold & silver relationship ???
bill, can you please tell me why silver would lead the charge down, when it didnt lead up? wouldnt copper and gold, the two leaders, have a higher beta?
Re: gold & silver relationship ???
quasi, thank you - those are very useful as well, and yes the link didnt work for me either, but the stockcharts.com is excellent
Re: Some observations and trading decisions
Thanks for your comments Vad I always read and take note of your insights and views.Have read your book about tape reading too,I recommend it.
Rotting apple
I hope you all will be cautious moving fwd.
I still have my guards up for Dow 10,300. When i bought boat load of C in march people thought i was nuts. I thought I was nuts. but reading this blog is helping me get better at buying fear and selling greed.
Unfortunately I am not proficient enough in the hand to hand combat style some of you are good at; buying in and out multiple times every day scalping profits left and right, buying appl at these nose bleed levels and making money, etc.
But I am getting good at firing this cannon aboard the aircraft carrier.
I want to just note again something i posted yest. Big IF...if something like 1987 re-occurs, the USD fell along with prices into the abyss in 87. So waiting for the USD to rise and give signal to the end of rising equity prices might be a very quick contra trend spike move, then falling in unison.
Jamie Dimon & Friends are not buying appl today. I just dont want anyone from this community to get hurt. And I am not saying go short either. But to fully disclose, I have been building call options with 2010 expiry on short etfs.
Good luck. Off to another trade show in Boston.
Re: Some observations and trading decisions
Vad, thanks for sharing at the perfect time for me and I think as usual you are correct.
I'm watching the bottoming action in HOD.TO along with what seems to be topping action in the CDN oilers (or is that consolidation for more upside?). I will be opening a long in HOD.TO if it stays green into today's close and plan to add more fairly heavily if the market confirms the move and oil is indeed reversing (short term) with everything else.
I would appreciate any criticism from anyone on that plan.
My ABX long is also not doing much...seems to be selling into strength there rather than the hoped-for bounce up to delight the gold bugs, so I think the gold bugs may be headed for an HB&B black box ambush as Bill has pointed out.
Re: WSJ Link
An electronic exchange is an intriguing idea; however, it does point to the importance of Bill's thoughts regarding the SEC. They currently are the gatekeepers to getting any stock listed, so who who be the regulator in the alternative? Transparency and lack of conflicts of interest are key. The only half-baked idea I have come up with is to have somebody like Berkshire Hathaway backstop such an exchange. But then again one thinks of the importance of price discovery and valid capital markets in our economy, and clearly the regulator must be the government. Therefore we have to protest and change the system as Bill says.
bidding the buck
Someone is buying the dollar today. While I'm wary given the number of 1-2 dollar rebounds we've had all the way down, today looks very strong. It just now broke above yesterday's high, I'm sure the late-to-the-party dollar shorts are getting more than a little roasted right now.
Dollar now +0.67, huge spike up over the last 10-15 minutes.
Re: Letters to Shapiro etc.
westcoaster, I would generally tend to agree had it not been for the fact that this fraud is well over $100 Million and, the SEC is already spending resource on it. They have the evidence to shut down the scam, they just don't want to act yet on that evidence. That means they are wasting resource and increasing the victim base at the same time.
You see SpongeTech advertised in every major sports venue (Nice shot of their billboard at the Angels/Yankee game last night) and they are sucking in new investors by those advertisements. The other problem (and How I got involved) is that SpongeTech the pump and dump is presenting itself as a NSS fraud. They are having investors send complaints in to Congress and the SEC crying NSS foul play and that detracts from teh real stories out there of this venue.
Re: gold & silver relationship ???
Last paragraph of a 2006 article on the various ratios of gold and silver:
"although silver is about six to eight times more abundant than gold; the current perceived utility for silver sets it a price 56 times cheaper than gold. However, when fear of systemic failure in the global markets is heightening, items such as silver gain a new utility and use as a safe haven asset and new demand appears. When that happens, we expect the gold-silver ratio to approach 15 again. Just as it did when a fiat money collapse was last envisaged back in the inflationary era of the 1970s."
http://tinyurl.com/2rtd9h
Here's the original source for this article:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/false_data.html
As for the failed link, scroll down to Precious Metals and find XAU/JGOL Ratio here:
http://www.chartsrus.com/
Silver has a higher beta than gold and both are set for a pullback when the USD$ comes up for air:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d12
Hope all these links are cool with you, Bill. Not entirely clear on your stance in that regard.
Cheers.
Re: InLike Flint: SSG/TYP/FXP>>21.45/11.17/8.10>>OFF all
22/11.44/8.25...
How did Gold react in 1987?
http://bit.ly/4rq46S
You can match this chart up with the ones attached to my post #49807 above
Dave Patch
its not my style, but i sent it along anyway.
2nd_ave
thanks for your kind words yesterday. i hope to provide more "unique", yet, um, appropriate, perspectives soon. ;)
Brazilian ADRs getting hammered ...
after a surcharge put on the Real yesterday. Looking for an entry.
http://nexalogic.com/latin.html
A little mid-day humor :)
Goldman Sachs in Talks to Acquire Treasury Department
Sister Entities to Share Employees, Money
In what some on Wall Street are calling the biggest blockbuster deal in
the history of the financial sector, Goldman Sachs confirmed today that
it was in talks to acquire the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
According to Goldman spokesperson Jonathan Hestron, the merger between
Goldman and the Treasury Department is "a good fit" because "they're in
the business of printing money and so are we."
The Goldman spokesman said that the merger would create efficiencies for
both entities: "We already have so many employees and so much money
flowing back and forth, this would just streamline things."
Mr. Hestron said the only challenge facing Goldman in completing the
merger "is trying to figure out which parts of the Treasury Dept. we
don't already own."
Goldman recently celebrated record earnings by roasting a suckling pig
over a bonfire of hundred-dollar bills.
Elsewhere, conspiracy theorists celebrated the 40th anniversary of NASA
faking the moon landing.
And in South Carolina, Gov. Mark Sanford gave his wife a new diamond
ring, while his wife gave him an electronic ankle bracelet.
New Picture
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/10/picture-says-10...
Re: gold & silver relationship ???
To put it simply, when the economy goes down, $GOLD:$SILVER goes up. When the economy recovers, $GOLD:SILVER goes down. That's because silver is seen as an industrial metal, so its price seems to be driven at least partially by its industrial uses, while gold is mostly a store of value.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$SILVER&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p96137246918
Gold:Silver ratio was 92.5 during last year's October Surprise. It's, what, around 60 now?
Just from a "buy low sell high" standpoint, I'd be short silver long gold at this time.
Re: gold & silver relationship ???
ike,
Pardon? I think you are misinformed.
Silver ALWAYS leads up and down.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$GOLD,$SILVER
http://tinyurl.com/ygv2zrp
Re: curious
Submitted by manx928 (29 comments) on Mon, 10/19/2009 - 13:25 #49652 (in reply to #49630)
sammas, are you trying to suggest that the the shrinking Arctic ice sheet and the retreat of 95% of glaciers worldwide is happening because it's getting colder?!? I think it's important not to confuse weather and climate.
----------
no, i am trying to suggest several things:
1 - the SUN is the most important factor on climate on this planet as well as every other planet in this solar system with the possible temporary exception of a large asteroid strike, massive volcanic eruption, etc
2 - the output of the SUN is NOT constant
3 - carbon dioxide is absolutely essential to the existence of green plants (or any plant for that matter, but i like using green for the irony)
4 - ice melting reveals EXACTLY NOTHING about WHY it is melting
if you have an argument for any of these 4 points, put text to it
Re: A little mid-day humor :)
Since GS has set aside $16B for bonus payments in 2009, with an expected total of $20B by the end of the year, they might well afford it.
In other banking news, Chicago's CME says it will now accept physical gold as collateral for margin requirements. The gold will be stored at... JPM.
And this is all true, no joking here.
Re: gold & silver relationship ???
I agree with Bill as silver is always more volatile than gold. In fact, it is very rare for silver to move percentage wise more or less than gold. The reasons for this relationship may be debatable but some have cited that silver is a smaller market thus more susceptible to stonger moves. There are also a few that state that silver is also more manipulated, hence the more potent directional moves.
Cheers
Re: Interesting update on dark pools
Tuesday, October 20, 2009 1:23:13 PM
(US) Dark Pool Trading Limit to be cut 95% in SEC Proposal
- Note: Dark Pool orders are issued programatically by computers and grey/black box programmers, shown on an ECN for 30ms or less and as a result are inside the window for dissemination to the broad tape and ECN's. Program traders use this to hunt for depth or to feel out how to trade a stock without showing their hand to the public at large or even other professionals that watch the tape. Dark pools are off exchange platforms run by the likes of Goldman Sachs and Getco LLC.
Bought PCS
In at 6.54. Bought for two reasons. RSI7 is at about 10 AND goldman downgraded it so it really must be near the bottom.
Re: gold & silver relationship ???
i stand corrected - thank you
Vad
I agree with your assessment as I have noticed similar things when I was taking a longer look at the price/volume in SPY. Big volume on down days. I think a correction could be coming.
I have been selling off my long positions in anticipation of a move lower. Only holding SPY in my long term account now.
My other indicator: every long position I have entered in the past 2 weeks with a few exceptions has lost me money...
UUP
I started playing this yesterday,in at $22.36, out today at $22.50.
I am now back in at $22.46.
Why am I playing this? A bullish wedge has formed and we are at the bottom of the wedge. Perhaps I am pre-empting the move higher but when I see the market bustup on good earnings news and then drop like a lead balloon, it gives me confidence that a top is in place. Whether or not it is short or intermediate term doesn't matter. As long as I put stops in place, I cannot get heavily damaged in case I am wrong. After all, this stock doesn't seem to have large gaps in either direction. Being related to the US Dollar, a correction in the market would be bullish for the dollar. As the day closes, we could get a larger selloff. Thus, I think the $22.46 level should hold as a current bottom. In any event, I have a stop of $22.36 in place.
ASTE has very bad quarter...
Asphalt, roads, utility spending down Big in US... hold-up on ' Highway ' bill is killing the very companies that could provide the jobs and income so desperately needed by American families... God D. this Congress..
US Dollar moves up - related to Brazil Real moves down
Brazilian Real Dropping
“zero hedge” has an interesting blog which has been a burr occasionally in the crotch of the powerful. One of his contributors, Nic Lenoir of ICAP, has posted about a current drop in the Brazilian Real as a reaction to the ongoing weakening $US by our Fed/Treasury hand holding.
Obrigado Brazil!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/obrigado-brazil
Here is a snip:
“... And this is when something unbelievable in modern economic policy happened: the Brazilian government imposed a tax on foreign investments to stem the ramp up of the Real. This is not only surprising, as demonstrated by the 4.5% sell-off today in Brazilian equities, but it is more importantly a great step. ...” [more at link above]
Symbol for one Brazil Real fund is BZF.
Hmmm, maybe if enough countries get on the bandwagon, the $US will have to increase in value, but wait! Dollar goes up - and the “Great Recession” turns into a “Greater Depression”.
Interesting times ...
SPY Puts
Bought some SPY $112 and $109 Puts at $4.13 average and $2.48 average, respectively. Looking for possible downside protection against my long SPY in my long term account.
50% in cash otherwise.
Just added AMAG
I like the chart for this Pharma on weekly, daily charts ,seems to have bottomed out to me,of course I could be wrong as I was with AET ,DODD.I am still mainly in cash waiting and watching to see if a new trend develops.Noticed a head and shoulders pattern in the RSI 7 for SPY.
Re: UUP
Stay nimble! See my post above. Usd slid in unison for the majority of the crash of 1987. Bouncing after the smoke cleared. Not saying it will be exact. But it may rhyme.
bought some SRS & FAZ, sold some DGP
I got a late start today, but I see that the market is in the red after a good announcement from Apple last night and I see that IYR keeps making lower highs since September 22, so I just bumped back my SRS position back to the maximum size I ever had at $9.71.
Last night I also placed some stop orders on my DGP position and they were hit today, selling 1/3 at $24.98 (cost basis was $24.92) and another 1/3 at $25.11 (cost basis was $25.49).
Also, the buy stop order I placed on FAZ last night was triggered today at $19.05. I am still keeping it for the time being...
Something I noticed in SPY
I have been watching trend lines in the SPY for a while now to determine a short term topping action. I mentioned before that stocks should be bought when the SPY moves at least 3% above the 200 DMA after being below it, which is what it did in late June/early July. Longer term I think you should continue to hold stocks but it's always fun to try to time the shorter term tops...
Anyway, I've noticed that the pullbacks have been getting more severe each time. I'm not sure if this chart will come through, but it shows the 20 DMA, 50 DMA, and 200 DMA. On the first pullback, the 20 DMA acted as resistance. On the 2nd pullback, resistance was between the 20 DMA and the 50 DMA. On the 3rd pullback, resistance was at the 50 DMA. Also notice the pullbacks in terms of points and percentages:
1: -3.2pts (-3.3%)
2: -3.6pts (-3.5%)
3: -4.8pts (-4.5%)
So it stands to reason that if there is another pullback, it could be in the 6 pt range down to about $103 or $104, which would pierce through the 50 DMA and be somewhere between the 50 DMA and 200 DMA.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SPY#chart1:symb...
Re: Something I noticed in SPY
Take a look at this chart from 1974/1975. The setups are similar to that period and I think this period is most similar to that period anyway...a nasty downturn with lots of job losses resulted in prolonged stagnant growth. Anyway, you can see in this chart that it had a similar pattern in August '75 where the 20 DMA acted as first resistance, then it was between the 20DMA and the 50 DMA, then the bottomed dropped out short term and it went all the way down to the 200 DMA before stabilizing. If this link doesn't go through just do a range between 8/1/1974 and 1/1/1976 and draw the 20DMA/50DMA/200DMA lines.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC#chart3:symbol=^gspc;range=19740701,19770103;indicator=ema%2850,200,20%29+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
Good discussion at WSJ about e-readers
http://tinyurl.com/ykcoglq
Re: US Dollar moves up - related to Brazil Real moves down
It certainly makes things very interesting. EWZ straddles are up 32% on the move (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_iV5yDiKxCdk/St3ffLAEY7I/...).
The move is likely to have no effect on the long term appreciation of the Real. The last time this happened, it had no effect other than a short term drop which was used as a tremendous opportunity. After today EWZ's RSId will not be nosebleed. This is HSBC's take:
FDI will not be taxed. Although we still lack more details, apparently the issuance of external debt by Brazilian companies will not be taxed either.
Differently from what has been rumoured during the whole day, no different tax brackets will apply according to the period the investment stays in the country.
The government has been showing a lot of concern with the recent appreciation of the BRL, and the taxation aims to discourage the inflow of a certain kind of capital that the government deems speculative.
What we think: We consider the introduction of the IOF as negative, as it adds an unnecessary degree of uncertainty to investors' decisions. We also see it as almost ineffective, as the current inflow of capitals mainly reflects a very favourable view investors currently have about Brazil.
Regarding the attractiveness of Brazil as a destination for portfolio investments, the imposition of the tax may have different impacts on the fixed income and equity sides. On the equity side, given the higher expected return of the investments, one should expect a very moderate medium term impact on the inflow - although some disruption may arise on the very short term.
Regarding fixed income investments, the yield curve may have to shift upwards to compensate for the taxation. It is also reasonable to assume that investors should ask for an extra risk premium, as the introduction of the tax brings additional uncertainty. The net effect could be a more marked slow down on the flows.
Year to date, balance of payments statistics show the net inflow of portfolio investments in Brazil at USD16.9bn, split as follows: USD13.4bn in equity and USD3.5bn in fixed income. Considering the points we made about the different impact on equity and fixed income flows, we do not believe the new tax may interrupt the medium term appreciation trend of the BRL.
Re: gold & silver relationship ???
ike,
hey we all make mistakes. Mine today was thinking the Cdn Dollar had soared when in fact I was looking at an inverse chart -- in the 0.5 seconds I gave it before commenting. My bad.
News alert for CDE
Bolivia fears collapse at Potosi, limits mining
LA PAZ, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Bolivia's government has banned thousands of independent miners and U.S.-based Coeur d'Alene from mining silver in part of the legendary Cerro Rico mine because officials fear it could collapse, the deputy mines minister said on Tuesday.
Freelance miners, who scrape out a living by extracting mineral ore from the mountain, are likely to protest against the ban, while Coeur d'Alene said the decision would not affect its operations.
Cerro Rico (Rich Mountain), which lies in the central Potosi region, has come to symbolize a colonial past where thousands of Inca slaves died mining silver for the Spanish conquistadors.
Five centuries of mining have turned the mountain's cone into a sponge of flimsy tunnels that threaten to cave in, prompting officials to ban mining at the peak.
"The board of directors of (state-run mining company) Comibol has issued a resolution suspending mining operations above 14,400 feet (4,400 meters) to preserve the morphological shape of the Cerro Rico," Deputy Mining Minister Gerardo Coro told reporters.
According to the government, there are nearly 200 mine shafts into the mountain, which rises to some 15,400 feet (4,700 meters).
The ban will remain in place for the six months the government says it needs to assess the risk of collapse, but it could be extended depending on the study's findings.
A spokesman for U.S. miner Coeur d'Alene, which operates the San Bartolome mine at Cerro Rico, said the government measure would not affect its operations.
"The recent public notice by COMIBOL regarding a request to (Coeur's local subsidiary) Manquiri and the cooperatives to temporarily halt mining above 4,400 meters on Cerro Rico does not impact our current operations," the spokesman said.
San Bartolome is the world's largest pure silver mine. In 2009, its first full year of production, it is expected to produce ap proximately 9 million ounces of silver. It mainly extracts silver ore from gravel deposits at the base of the mountain.
Thousands of ill-equipped, independent miners extract ore from Cerro Rico every day, and conditions have not changed much since Spanish conquerors brought slaves there 500 years ago.
Cerro Rico's vast reserves turned the nearby city of Potosi into the most populous in the Americas in the 17th century, with some 120,000 inhabitants -- more than London, Paris or Madrid at the time. (Reporting by Carlos Quiroga; Writing by Eduardo Garcia; Editing by Christian Wiessner)
Re: Something I noticed in SPY
Interesting observation, teamonfuego!
Re: Good discussion at WSJ about e-readers
My gf just finished her 1st book on her iPod touch (same screen as iPhone) through the free barnes ereader app. No need for extra hardware/device. App is free. U can preview books and order instantly. If I had to guess, shelf life of a dedicated reader's days are limited. It's all going to be about 1 device for all things remote.
Google also coming out with ebooks. Offering publishers 65 pct. It's great for consumers. Publishing deflation playing right before our eyes.
- Sent by iPhone
Re: gold & silver relationship ???
See what I mean Ike. Thx for posting your thoughts and getting out of lurker mode. The lessons you learn from putting yourself out there stick. Not a bad thing when Bill responds and offers knowledge.
Keep sharing. U should read some of my earlier posts here vs now. But the learning never stops. I am still trying to understand all the inter relationships every time I read a WIR.
Bear Creek Mining trading halted
Anyone have any leads? Have position in BCM.V
Re: Good discussion at WSJ about e-readers
"Google also coming out with ebooks. Offering publishers 65 pct. It's great for consumers. Publishing deflation playing right before our eyes."
Not so great for authors. Depending on the outcome of class action suit and if granted such rights, I fully intend to pull my books off Google e-version.
Re: Bear Creek Mining trading halted
I've got no leads but it is very likely a capital raising (unless there is a buyout offer or something of that nature).
Re: Bear Creek Mining trading halted
BCM SEDAR Preliminary Short Form Prospectus
http://tinyurl.com/yjs69be
Tomorrow.
so what's the consensus on tomorrow? to hold SRS or not to hold. hmmmm.
Schumer letter to M Shapiro at sec - dark pools
http://bit.ly/1kuiyz
her in box must be busy!
Politicians and regulators
Bill said in today's opening commentary :
"Now we are told the SEC has recruited a 29-year old Goldman Sachs staffer, a man who has had three jobs in his young life, a non-lawyer, to head up the enforcement decision. The mind boggles."
"Other than moving our capital to another country and sinking the US Dollar further, what can we do about this dire situation? We – you, I, Patchie, and all the people we know -- can step into the leadership vacuum and make demands of legislators and regulators until they become black and blue in the face. We need them to either take the necessary action to clean up the mess or acknowledge they are part of it."
I'd say they ARE part of it. Greed for money and power, I'm afraid , will probably overcome protestations to our representatives. Our pleas may result in some window dressing but the truth will continue to be repressed as it is
in the interest of the syndicates who profit from the distribution of taxpayer wealth, or what's left of it.
Our creditors are meeting behind closed doors trying to figure a way out of the mess. In essence, as taxpayers,
we are also creditors and should ally our interests with this group, who seek more responsible economic policies
to end the destruction of value of their investments in the US. A large economic geopolitical conflict is brewing
between debtors and creditors. We must be careful as in previous history, warfare many times erupts from these conflicts.
I am watching to see if the Fed will repeat with a $600 billion currency swap to boost the dollar as they did in 2008.
And will it be as successful in boosting the dollar....perhaps a policy of diminishing returns
Re: gold & silver relationship ???
NYU - thank you for your encouraging thoughts. I appreciate it. I am grateful for everyones responses/opinions especially Bill's - You are supremely correct in stating the vast amount of challenges available in trying to make a living forecasting/reacting to price movements. It is also a priviledge to be involved in such an exciting industry with an infinate amount of ways to participate.
YHOO
On paper earnings look good but I wouldn't get too excited if you're looking to go long...their earnings included a ton of stuff from Alibaba.com. They reported .13 EPS but $105 Million of the $196 Million income was due to a gain on a sale of Alibaba.com...not sure how to calculate their revenues because it looks like a lot of that includes add-ins.
I would stick with AAPL and GOOG if I were looking to get in the tech space.
Yahoo
Another day another earnings beat on no top line.
http://bit.ly/zrpyu
SUNNYVALE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO - News) today reported revenues of $1,575 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2009, a decrease of 12 percent from the third quarter of 2008 and slightly above the second quarter of 2009. Excluding the impact of currency rate fluctuations and divested business lines, revenues for the third quarter of 2009 would have declined 7 percent compared to the third quarter of
Net income per diluted share for the third quarter of 2009 was $0.13, compared to $0.04 for the third quarter of 2008. Non-GAAP net income per diluted share for the third quarter of 2009 and 2008 was $0.15.
“With revenue coming in above our guidance and flat sequentially, we had a solid third quarter that signals our major businesses have stabilized,” said Yahoo! chief executive officer Carol Bartz. “With new products like Yahoo! homepage, our brand revitalization campaign and expansion in the Middle East through Maktoob.com, our execution is improving and we're focused on what we do best - being the center of people's online lives.”
Re: curious
I'm not sure where you're going with those 4 points, but I'll try to respectfully respond. I don't take issue with the first 3 simple statements of fact. The 4th point is only answerable in the simplest sense of expaining "WHY" - and that is, ice sheets and glaciers shrink when the melt rate exceeds the accummulation rate, which is directly related to average temperature; ergo, they are direct indicators of climatic warming. One can then posit all kinds of reasons why climate is warming and argue that it's not because of man, if one wants, but I think that would be like aligning oneself with the "scientists" who said smoking isn't harmful.
But, we're way off the topic of markets and we probably shouldn't be airing our personal or political beliefs here. If you're inclined, you can contact me directly to discuss/debate it any further.
Re: curious
" but I think that would be like aligning oneself with the "scientists" who said smoking isn't harmful."
Tough quote to comment on. You say, scientists (40 years ago or whatever) told us that smoking wasn't harmful, and because of it we cannot believe the science of global warming. I don't think so. Was smoking studied to the degree that climate change has been? Was there broad consenses by scientists about smoking, or was it 'industry scientists'? Do you take medicine, or know anyone who does? Do you believe in the science underlying the medicine? Or should we mostly doubt that science, based on your theory?
Re: curious
sorry, I re read your comment and see that I agree with it. Your comment, properly read, is "by giving this reason or that reason that global warming must be from some source other than man, one is aligning oneself with bad science". I read to fast, and commented too quickly. And I agree, we are moving from the markets.
Re: Tomorrow.
Yes, tomorrow should be interesting. I look forward to reviewing the CTAB notes on today's action when I wake up tomorrow.
Earnings out tonight have not really changed the indices so looking ahead we have (from a very quick glance at the earnings calender) APD, AMGN, WFC, USB and BA among others reporting tomorrow morning. I'm holding some QID bought today at 22. We may see another lovefest from CNBC tomorrow but they didn't help things all that much today.
For me, most of all I hope that today was a sign of a turn in the dollar. It would help this Canadian trading in US dollars if nothing else.
Re: A little mid-day humor :)
ALOHA !!
Si02 posted - "other banking news, Chicago's CME says it will now accept physical gold as collateral for margin requirements. The gold will be stored at... JPM."
Only an idiot would use gold as collateral for anything, especially margin and then hand it over to JPM. Who pays the delivery/ins/vault fees? Will the CME also consider GLD shares as collateral? Seems only reasonable ...
Also SGOL gold is guarded by JPM stored in Swiss vaults ...
Interesting that the largest PM short on the COMEX is guarding all the gold and silver! One would think the SEC would consider that a conflict of interest!
Re: Bear Creek Mining trading halted
Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada - Trading Halt - Bear Creek Mining Corp. - BCM http://bit.ly/3Z0bzq
Re: Good discussion at WSJ about e-readers
I find the comments about e-readers interesting, but I respectfully disagree with the comments about publishing deflation and author compensation. I have long thought that technology should have a prevalent role in the college textbook market, where 40% of a publisher's cost is in printing. Think interactive text rather than printed and bound static verbiage, and yet there's hardly any market share with an audience that's the most likely to use technology. I don't want to generalize about the much larger reading market, but I would see the takeup rate much slower there than in a segmented, tech-savvy student population. For Vad I would want to see that interactive market rather than a static one, more opportunities for value-added sales, even if on the front end he gets squeezed.
Re: A little mid-day humor :)
Kaimu,
Man I love your posts!
(after 3 Sam Adams on the express train to Boston)
Re: A little mid-day humor :)
When I wrote the original post I had actually written "... to be stored at Kaimu's favourite gold custodian... JPM".
I thought it was bizarre too. Imagine people bringing their collateral to the CME, here CME, take that truck load of gold in the parking lot. Bizarre to say the least.
Nasdaq announcement: http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story...
Re: Good discussion at WSJ about e-readers
It's just a matter of time before Google gets its Supreme Court copyright waiver for its trillion title electronic library. Here in Ann Arbor, Michigan, there is a little warehouse with roughly 20 minimum wager Google employees feverishly scanning the University of Michigan's extensive libraries. The dumpster is stuffed with burnt scanners. There's no name on the building or its directory. It's been going on for a few years now.
Big brother has arrived. I'm keeping my 'Grapes of Wrath' first edition with the fine dustcover as long as I can ... screw progress!
Robert Reich is upset
http://tiny.cc/796ns
Reich writes, in part:
"Last January, as I understand it, the White House promised Big Pharma, big insurance, and the American Medical Association the moral equivalent of what Joel Halderman allegedly demanded of David Letterman: hush money. The groups agreed to stay silent or even be supportive of healthcare reform, as long as they were paid off.
But now that it's time to collect, the bill is larger than the White House expected, and it's going to fall like an avalanche on middle class Americans in coming years. That could mean an ugly 2012 election (read Sarah Palin).
So the President has to do what Letterman did: Refuse to pay."
Re: Good discussion at WSJ about e-readers
"For Vad I would want to see that interactive market rather than a static one, more opportunities for value-added sales, even if on the front end he gets squeezed."
Without going into too many details, let me simply state that it doesn't work this way and it doesn't align with my interests.
Sorry, I am not being dismissive, I just don't think the deeper discussion of it is of any interest to the blog participants. If you visit Freeport conference and are interested in whys, I'll be glad to explain.
Re: Tomorrow.
found -- as I mentioned earlier today, the IYR keeps making lower lows, which suggests that it might be in a downtrend already, and hence the expected change in IYR between today's close and tomorrow's close is negative (which means that SRS is expected to grow between today's close and tomorrow's close). However, if you believe that IYR is in an uptrend, then you should not hold SRS overnight.
Buffett Says Economic Low Point Reached
How bad is it really if the Oracle starts sounding like a CNBC Cheerleader?
http://tinyurl.com/yzy26fd
market going higher
Jeff Saut of RJ
market's going up because it's going up. Psychology: Investors and money managers nervous at having underperformed the market ytd. Similar to Q4 1999, throwing in the towell and chasing the winners to look good by the end of the year. Expect a parabolic rise. Many of the winners have been the lower quality companies...(HB&B via PPT went straight to lower quality stocks? This is unexpected and has confused investors) Stocks mentioned (If i heard him right) : lzb (how appropriate) bexp rfmd, din, hugh, clr, mot
Re: market going higher
I have to agree. They can't break the bears, despite the Chinese torture. I think they bring in the Russian for the end game.
Re: market going higher
that sounds like red dawn 'wolverines '
TFSG
ouch...loan loss reserves actually went down slightly but this regional bank isn't close to turning the corner.
Regional Banks
BBT, ZION, TSFG...which other ones have missed?
Re: Good discussion at WSJ about e-readers
NYUGrad, those links you sent me for Safari AdobeFlash mobile (iPhone) conversions to MSNBC and Reuters don't work for me. I think the 3G network in my area may not be fully functional...any way around that? Thanks in advance.
Re: market going higher
Well, the intent was not to start a thread on Vad's favorite movies. But as long as you've opened the door, I could just as easily have said 'I think they bring in Harvey Keitel, Armand Assante, or even Dennis Hopper.'
Here's one economist with a little insight into trading
The root of most financial errors is "when you try to do today what you wished you had done yesterday."
~ Lawrence H. Summers
From Twiggs' latest.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/tradi...
Re: Here's one economist with a little insight into trading
Sounds very similar to a popular saying among Russian chess players: Move made a move later is always a mistake.
(Translation is loose, maybe someone Russian-speaking knows more precise one:
Ход сделанный ходом позже всегда ошибка)
Comments moved here from the Lee Iacocca article
Complete work stoppage July 4 2010. new
Submitted by NYUGrad (1727 comments) on Tue, 10/20/2009 - 17:22 #49867
Every tax payer take July 4 off and doest return to work until a summit is called with new elected speaker representatives broken by geo region, elected by the people Online and local town halls. goes to talk to the president and the president alone. This summit be televised and webcast globally. No politicians or congressman allowed.
Also a succession plan for the head coordinator and elected reps in case of harm or imprisonment.
A complete freeze of production until our voices are heard, issues dealt with, bankers and politicians tried and jailed, tarp and talf clawed back, and new govt standards are written and passed and replace those abound by conflict of interest.
Is the idea lunacy?
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Re: Complete work stoppage July 4 2010. new
Submitted by kaimu (1078 comments) on Tue, 10/20/2009 - 18:43 #49878 (in reply to #49867)
ALOHA !!
NYU - The laws already exist and they reside within the US Constitution so there is no need to continually add new laws.
1-There is no mention or grant for any central bank to exist in America under the US Constitution, the Declaration of Independence or the Bill Of Rights. The issuance of money was reserved for the US Treasury and US Mint, not the US FED.
2-There is no provision at all for a Federal Reserve Note in the US Constitution or any other founding documents. Only gold and silver is declared money.
3-There is no provision for the US FED, a private banking cartel to be engaged in a MONETARY MONOPOLY. It is illegal and should be broken up like any other MONOPOLY under US Anti-Trust laws, just like Standard Oil was in the early 1900s. Under such laws the member banks of the US FED are also illegal, which means that Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank America, Citibank and the rest of the US FED member banks are illegal under the US Constitution and would be dissolved with the banks assets going to the US Treasury and shareholders and any capital gains taxed at the going rate upon dissolution determined by basis tax laws.
Its not magic and not complicated ... ELIMINATE THE US FED!
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Loanletter re: iphone
On your iphone, just go to msnbc.com on your safari browser, and the site will be iphone ready.
then go to the videos on the bottom. although, i am pretty certain the inventory of videos they have compatible with your iphone is not the same inventory avail on the regular site.
For reuters. just go to the app store on your phone and install the reuters one.
BOE Governer: "Big Banks Should Get Broken Up"
http://bit.ly/EYh3Q (google the headline above and click the link for full article)
"Bank of England governor Mervyn King, saying new regulations won't prevent failures of big banks, made a strong call for the breaking up of some of the world's biggest financial firms, a view that takes on increasing significance because he is likely to gain new regulatory powers in the next year."
"He also said that those banks that are being supported by the government must not be encouraged to try to "earn their way out" of that support by restarting the type of practices that got them into trouble initially. Representatives of the U.K's four largest banks, HSBC Holdings PLC, the Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, Barclays PLC, and Lloyds Banking Group PLC either couldn't be reached for comment or declined to comment on the speech."
About Mervyn Allister King
Governor, Bank of England. http://bit.ly/2rzLkx
" The ' Market ' may be topping out, but individual stocks
could still go up "... Bill Fleckenstein talked about this a few nights ago... may be playing out....
Frontline on Deregulation
Brooksley Born finally has her say:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/
And does anyone believe Obama has done anything to fix things? Not me. It's business as usual. But you still have to wonder at the level of institutional dysfunction and corruption that allows someone like Summers to be in a position of power after all the damage he has done.
Re: Here's one economist with a little insight into trading
Or...you can make the wrong moves at the wrong time...the wrong moves at the right time...the right moves at the wrong time...or the right moves at the right time.
Re: " The ' Market ' may be topping out, but individual stocks
"The ' Market ' may be topping out, but individual stocks could still go up "
Wouldn't that be the riskiest time to seek short term gains? And the best time to sit out or build short positions for aggressive traders?
especially for the majority who don't know how or have the time to fight hand to hand combat vs the machines?
Chart Pattern Trader Oct 20 video up
http://bit.ly/CPTvideos
Bernanke Guilty of Coercion and Market Manipulation
October 20, 2009
Bernanke Guilty of Coercion and Market Manipulation
by Mike Shedlock
In April Let the Criminal Indictments Begin: Paulson, Bernanke, Lewis I made the case that BAC chairman Lewis was guilty of fraud and Paulson was guilty of coercion in regards to the shotgun wedding between Bank of America and Merrill Lynch.
The case against Bernanke was weaker because of Bernanke's selective memory. When confronted by Congress with his role in this mess, Bernanke defense was that he did not remember what he said while Paulson called Bank of America a "Turn in the Punchbowl".
Please see Bernanke Suffers From Selective Memory Loss; Paulson Calls Bank of America "Turd in the Punchbowl" for details.
In July, Paulson attempted to defend himself, and in doing so Paulson Admitted Coercion. I asked again "Where are the Indictments?"
Today, I am asking the same thing again.
Please consider Bank of America Told Aid May Help Stock, E-Mail Shows.
Bank of America Corp. signed off on its government-assisted purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co. after U.S. regulators said the deal might boost the shares, e-mails from two executives showed. Instead, the stock collapsed.
"The chairman of the Federal Reserve indicated it would be structured in a manner such that BAC stock should go up when announced," Chief Financial Officer Joe Price said in a Dec. 29 e-mail to executives of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank, including Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis.
The e-mails are among more than 1,000 pages of documents sent last week to the House Oversight Committee. Bloomberg News was provided a portion of what the committee received in its investigation of the Merrill acquisition. A hearing is scheduled Oct. 22 at which two Bank of America directors and former General Counsel Timothy Mayopoulos are to appear.
"The strategic wisdom of the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch deal is now obvious to everyone," bank spokesman Lawrence Di Rita said in an interview. "These documents and e-mails reveal the good faith deliberations among those who understood that first."
Bank of America provided documents to the committee Oct. 16 after agreeing to forego its right to keep discussions with its lawyers confidential. The bank didn't make the documents public.
The documents include "talking points" prepared by the bank's law firm to be used by Lewis for a conversation in late December with Paulson about Merrill's worsening finances. The memo and Price's notes suggest the bank consider lowering the price for Merrill if Bank of America couldn't cancel the transaction. The deal took effect Jan. 1 without any repricing.
Other documents citing internal bank discussions note that incoming Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, then president of the Fed Bank of New York, and incoming National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers endorsed providing guarantees to Bank of America. Geithner and Summers took office after President Barack Obama was inaugurated on Jan. 20.
Taxpayers 'Foot Bill'
"The Bank of America-Merrill Lynch merger was the outcome of a collaborative effort orchestrated by Ken Lewis, Henry Paulson, Ben Bernanke, Timothy Geithner and Larry Summers," said Kurt Bardella, spokesman for U.S. Representative Darrell Issa, ranking Republican member of the panel. "As a result of this collaboration, the taxpayers ended up footing the bill so Bank of America didn't have to absorb Merrill Lynch's losses."
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Re: " The ' Market ' may be topping out, but individual stocks
Who knows, NY... who knows... Fleck said ( like our Bill ) he had never imagined the market could have run this high so quickly... I kinda liked to peg 7200 - 7500 as an indicator, since the last 700 ( or so ) points was a hedge flush... I am very focused on select bio's in phases II and III that are not talked about on tv.. I am shy of the semi's, as INTC is on the ' back-end ' of the supply chain, and is not a good indicator of things, especially if double and triple ordering has been more than normal.. A trader has to think that the companies that did not catch the wave of March will not necessarally be the ones to go up ( if any go up ) from here... I have argued that there is no significant retail money coming in, and that the ' sideways ' action people talk about will probably occur in 2010 ( disasters aside ).. I am also monitering, Very Closely, equities such as GVA, VMC, MLM, ASTE, FLR, etc., because of the Transportation ( Highway ) Bill that will be finished before long.. I have a very strong ' feeling ' that about an additional $ 150 Billion will be added to help the jobs situation... I am planning options strategies for January and February after next week.....I always enjoy your thoughts, NYU... Baz
Re: Brazilian ADRs getting hammered ...
strangelove -
THanks for that terrific spreadsheet on brazilian ADR's.
From Simon Johnson... it could happen all over again..
....http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6832440.ece
Re: From Simon Johnson... it could happen all over again..
baz,
Let me help you help me, and intro you to bitly :)
http://bit.ly/J8G87
for future reference bookmarking this may be helpful. I use it all day. http://bit.ly
Re: From Simon Johnson... it could happen all over again..
sorry.. can't do..
Unemployment numbers tomorrow
It will prob come in better than expected. tell that to those unemployed.
Briefing Forecast = 525,000
Market Expects = 517,000
Prior week = 514,000
http://bit.ly/8hDni
Even as the pace of newly unemployed improves, when will these people eventually find work, repair personal financial damage, and finally be ready to consume more? 2012?
I know several people who are about to expire their entire unemployment benefit, still without job prospects.
Futures down
http://bit.ly/18Uxxo
Let's see if this fancy hotel has a good breakfast buffet.
Continental Airlines Revenue down 20.2 percent, to $3.32 billion
http://bit.ly/4v7Vt5
"Passenger revenue for the quarter fell 21.6 percent ($813 million) compared to the same period last year due to lower fares and passenger traffic declines."