Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&si...

Personal income drops + consumer confidence low + unemployment still rising = moonshot rally?

Hmmm? Safe or buying the dips?

Craig- I think we're free of reckless shorts taking the markets up further in parabolic fashion. That doesn't mean it won't continue up- just not at the same unpredictable pace. We should at least see the usual pull backs. I still don't know if buying the dips or selling the rallies is the right move.

Insightful commentary from Warren Pollock on how China is quietly getting the hell out of dodge. http://bit.ly/lsxuH

Me either....I'm in nether nether land where cash is king, well, queen really compared to gold.

I'm not sure if even that is enough fuel for the bulls. I suspect a little buyer exhaustion.

Breadth - new all-time highs based on T2112 (Worden) - normally a pullback from these levels is in order

Dave

There was a thread about using UNG as a paired trade to the S&P 500. I mentioned that over many time periods, UNG was generally positively correlated with the S&P 500. But using simple correlation is somewhat misleading as certainly the positive correlation is nowhere near 1:1. Someone mentioned .25 which is low but nevertheless positive.

If you use SPY as the S&P 500 proxy, I have found that TLT is a much better hedge than UNG if creating a paired trade is what you want to do.

TLT is definitely negatively correlated over pretty much any time period you choose, and also tends to have percentage moves that are about the same size on a daily basis, up or down, as does SPY. In contrast, UNG tends to have huge moves - yesterday up 10%+ and today down 2.5% is not atypical. That's not how SPY behaves.

SPY and TLT are also similar in price and are very liquid so position sizing is easy. For options, they often have similar greeks for the same strikes so it's usually not too hard to pair options that have similar behavior. In contrast, UNG is all over the place.

Small positions.

Sold the SKF I sadly let myself get badly burned on and went to cash.

I'll evaluate holding it too long (a common problem I seem to have) and wait for a market direction before leaping in again.

My plan was to sell before GS earnings. When Ms. Whitney upgraded them the day before I stupidly sat on my holdings instead of immediately selling. Ego? Probably foolishly so.

Live and learn.

How about It?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/153241-china-tries...?

Gone crazy today along with the rest of the airlines!

Somewhere I read a day or so ago that might happen but unfortunately didn't pay attention to where or why...

shark- No worries, man. You can get FAZzed up right now @ 31.01.

Not to be miscontrued as adding on weakness. Staying away from that strategy.

I dont mind making a movie of 1987 graphs in action (thinking about wanting to see this stuff unfold as a learning experience). My broker doesnt go back that far. Stockcharts doesnt have candlesticks from before Jan,1 1990.

Does anyone know of a free service with good data?

Small position also. You could say I'm starting a collection of ultrashort Beanie babies...just in case the market turns south.

navid

Does this help you any? See highlighted settings.

went long in a fairly large position at $4.32

shark- I don't want to own an airline. Airlines may be the only sector that has consistently lost money for decades- they really know how to do it. I just wanted to make enough money off the airlines to pay for those one-shot mini bottles. Rarely does one need a drink- eleven hours into a flight to Asia, after reading all there is to read, watching the same movies twice and mentally pacing the cell block to arrival, I usually order a couple just to get into an altered state.

...

I think most shorts have stopped pretending at this point. Talk of SRS hitting single digits? I wasn't hearing any of that last week.

Tuesday, August 04, 2009 11:47:45 AM
*SEC TO REPORTEDLY BAN FLASH TRADES IN US - US SEN SCHUMER (D, NY)
- Schumer comments that SEC's Shapiro mentioned that the ban is 'imminent'

wow wonder when that will occur
surely they are going to run the computers hard until then

impressions on how this might play out?

12:23 (US) SEC's Shapiro: Flash trading & dark pools are concerns, exploring ways to eliminate the unfairness of flash trading
- reminder: Senator Schumer commented earlier that the SEC would soon "ban" flash trading

Not saying that the entirety of the rally relates to currency events, but nobody can believe that dollar weakness doesn't relate to the "indiscriminate" buying of stuff.

We'll never be Zimbabwe with wheelbarrows instead of wallets, but there's no question some are voting that way.

It's getting uncomfortable here even for me.

Also thinking if/when the shorts throw in the towel, it may result in a final melt-up that exceeds anything I can envision right now.

IMO:

- If flash orders remain all they focus on, no one of us will notice any difference.

- If SEC does its job properly and looks into the very issue of dark pools, uniting them with "mainstream" market, eliminating compartmentalization and restoring NATIONAL Best Bid and Offer, as it should be - it would be a positive change, and average investor/trader will benefit.

- If they go after HFT as such - it would be going too far, and average investor/trader will be penalized.

Vad- I did notice this morning that when opening positions in the 3x funds, Fidelity now requires one to read a warning statement:

"Attention:
(000801)Leveraged products are complex, carry substantial risks, and are intended for short-term trading. Most reset daily and seek to achieve their objectives on a daily basis. Due to compounding, performance over longer periods can differ significantly from the performance of the underlying index. Read the prospectus and understand its risks before investing. By placing this order, you agree:
Your investment objective is most aggressive or speculative
Your risk tolerance is high
You can lose all your investment
You have analyzed and understand the risks prior to investing
You understand the compounding effect and how it affects returns if held for more than a day
Fidelity did not solicit this transaction and will not monitor the investment or advise you about your strategy relating to this product"

Sounds like "Know your client" rule gone wild :)

It sounds more like they're afraid to lose their entire trading clientele to portfolio hospice.

It's no joke, really. FAZ is down (pre-split) to 2.95 from a high of 200? And FAS, which has been going up for three weeks straight, is now (pre-split) at 6.63?

SRS/FXP/ERY/TZA all run the risk of reverse 10:1 splits if we continue to churn above SPX 1000.

I'm serious about sweeping the 401(k) into real estate. Day trading is a full time job, and requires one's full attention. Investing- well, who knows when we return to above-board investing as an option?

LVS(+11%) MGM(+11%) WYNN(+8%)
so who has the ace?

On other blogs.

Have a cigar.....Rolled it myself:)

Congratulations korvus and as one arrives in the world, one leaves.
Bill probably knew Jack:
Richard John "Jack" Lawrence, 1934-2009
Aug 4, 2009 12:58:00 PM

TORONTO, Aug. 4 /CNW/ - It is with great sadness that the partners at Lawrence Asset Management Inc. and the shareholders at Lawrence & Company Inc. share the news of the unexpected and tragic death of founder Jack Lawrence, in a plane crash on Lake Muskoka on Monday, August 3, 2009.

Jack founded Lawrence & Company Inc. in 1996 to pursue his passion for investing, with a particular emphasis on venture capital opportunities. Weathering the downturn of the tech-bubble, he co-founded fund manager Lawrence Asset Management Inc. in 2001. While decreasing his day-to-day activities at the firm in recent years, Jack continued to provide leadership, guidance and oversight, drawing on his extensive reputation, knowledge and experience in Canadian capital markets.

Jack was formerly the Deputy Chairman of Nesbitt Burns Inc., Canada's second largest investment bank, and the President of BMO Investment Counsel, having been Chief Executive Officer of Burns Fry Limited and its predecessor companies for more than 30 years. Jack's career began at Fry Mills Spence where he became President after 5 years, merging with Burns Bros Denton in 1976 to create the powerhouse that would become Burns Fry.

As well as a dynamic career on Bay Street that spanned decades, Jack was a strong proponent on behalf of business playing an active role in Canadian public policy. He was vocal in expressing his view to government and policy makers and was an active member of the Canadian Council of Chief Executives (CCCE) (formerly the Business Council on National Issues) for many years. In 2001, Jack donated $3.7 million to the Richard Ivey School of Business at the University of Western Ontario to fund the building of the Lawrence National Centre for Policy and Management - a forum for business, media, students and academia to work with government and actively participate in public policy issues for the greater Canadian good. As a graduate of UWO (HBA'56), Jack was committed to seeing the Centre provide the guiding spirit to help students, business leaders, academia and public officials understand, discuss and contribute to the building of sound public policy ensuring a powerful future for Canada in the global environment.

"Our thoughts are with Jack's family and friends at this difficult time," said Ravi Sood, President of Lawrence Asset Management Inc. "Jack's well known commitment to health, fitness and living a full and active lifestyle make this loss so unexpected and tragic. He will be remembered on Bay Street for the contributions he made to Canadian capital markets over the years and at Lawrence Asset Management we will continue to build upon the legacy founded by Jack Lawrence."

Further details regarding funeral arrangements will be made available later this week.

How wonderful... sounds very healthy stats for a newborn... I bet his wife's hospital room has THE BEST flowers!
Congrats!!

I wish to point out (if necessary) that my comments re shorts should be taken as "business." I have to be honest in my reading of sentiment, which will include registering the pain of traders on one side.

From another perspective, I recognize the pain as being real. There's major denial taking place on most blogs, of course. No one wants to admit to being on the wrong side, much less being wiped out in the process. My brief foray into SRS/TZA/FAZ this morning tells me more than a few portfolios have been wiped out. Sometimes I need to buy-in to feel it. I think we all see part of ourselves in the carnage.

I think that's exactly right. Just bought some SRS at $13.25. What gives me some confidence in this purchase is that S&P is having its 4th week of moving up without any noticeable pullbacks, and this nonsense has to stop. When we do have a pullback, it is hard to believe that SRS will still be below $13.25 at the bottom of this pullback.

I do miss Vinod. Too bad he's too busy for his old friends:)

And whatever happened to Jody? And Fred? And the guy who bought Florida real estate a couple of years ago?

I do lament the passage of time.

Was 1009...for the SPX
Top was...1007...pretty amazing or just dumb luck...

interesting>>
A Ramping Market On Disappearing Volume: Volume-To-Price Correlation of -.81! http://bit.ly/2I4Ak2

"Unlike the true casino, the chance of each successive "red" here is not 1/2 -- it diminishes as the sequence of prior consecutive reds gets longer."

Not necessarily. We're talking about psychology here. The odds of further reds may actually increase with each successive red. In fact, what worries me is that capitulation, a process which (IMO) we are starting to see but has not yet ended, may end with a parabolic move up. Recall the momentary spike in FXPSKF to their all-time highs? Do you want to be 'holding' should we see a momentary spike down in SRS? The better play may be patience- be ready to pounce if/when we get that spike.

"We are in a bubble. The question is whether the calendar is 1999 or March 2000"

Greenlight Holds Bullion, Buys Reinsurance Stocks http://bit.ly/XNBhW

Greenlight Capital Inc., the $5 billion hedge-fund firm run by David Einhorn, told investors it switched all of its holdings in a gold exchange-traded fund into bullion during the second quarter.

ALOHA !!

When I saw Buffet buy up Goldman Sachs in their time of need my only thought was that Buffet crossed over to the dark side. Although I already knew he was heavy into the banks(Wells Fargo) and credit card biz(American Express)it now looks as if Berkshire would have been doomed if it were not for US Taxpayers. Just how "great" of an investor is that in reality?

Here is a snippet of one article that addresses this issue ...

Buffett’s Betrayal
2009-08-04 — reuters.com

Rolfe Winkler takes Warren Buffett to task:

Today, Buffett remains famous for investing The Right Way. He even has a television cartoon in the works, which will groom the next generation of acolytes.

But it turns out much of the story is fiction. A good chunk of his fortune is dependent on taxpayer largess. Were it not for government bailouts, for which Buffett lobbied hard, many of his company’s stock holdings would have been wiped out.

Berkshire Hathaway, in which Buffett owns 27 percent, according to a recent proxy filing, has more than $26 billion invested in eight financial companies that have received bailout money. The TARP at one point had nearly $100 billion invested in these companies and, according to new data released by Thomson Reuters, FDIC backs more than $130 billion of their debt.

Once again in terms of US Corporate welfare Buffet goes to the head of the class in Crony Socialism 101. I will say it again ... If US government contracts(welfare) were eliminated tomorrow the Fortune 500 would turn into the Fortune 5! Buffet proves my point!

Warren Buffet is a disappointment and I suspect most of the "well connected" will be as time goes on!

IT IS WHAT IT IS!

more turtles cried Yertle the turtle.....as he built his wall of turtle worry....

Guys, read Bill's Sat/Sunday reports again. Just *wait* for the RSI's to tell you what to do. There is no need to rush to be first in line! They won't run out of ultras.
If this sucker starts selling you will have time....unless you are long large, which wouldn't be wise, would it? Leave the rapid in and out to the Hare.

It's 12:02 noon PDT, and we're red...we have time. Maybe we go higher, maybe not.
The market will tell us soon enough. Patience.

You may like to read the entire WSJ account:
http://tiny.cc/BUldz

I loved it. Here is a whole bunch of Obama appointees bickering over who gets to be the Czar Most High.

Looks like not only the media honeymoon may be turning sour, but the "In Crowd" can't play nice together either. None of these players are elected and all want their own power intact.

Now if only the Congress would stand up and do what they were elected to do.

A centralized, single regulatory agency would sure make things a lot more efficient — for Goldman Sachs, that is. One-stop shopping.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/peter-schiff-p...

Isn't there lots of Econ Data coming out tomorrow? so it is not a good time to hold overnight positions with all of this messiness in the markets??
is this a good thought or no??

cant access this permissions issue

Of course these two events were seperated by a month or so...

Russian investment:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2009/jul...

Marine Corps ban(today):

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2009/08/marine...

Clinton probably didn't have to say anything as this was set up in advance and the outcome known. This seems like the usual carrot-stick routine from N.K. Do two or three provocative and/or irrational things (missiles, bombastic threats, etc.) followed by some conciliatory gesture. Clinton gets to look statesmenlike, the women go free and everybody's happy.

http://tinyurl.com/m7qb65

Aug 4, 2009

Chickenpookie

If you haven't watched it yet and you can spare about 9mins Peter Schiff talks about the $$$$ and this rally and what lies ahead for us.

See Peter Schiff Video post #39944

Gone most of the day . . returned prior to close.

Cara 100 BC now a nosebleed daily RSI7 of 95.52, weekly @ 80. (no position)

CHSCP at ATH of 27. D-W-M RSI 7 80-78-78, although thinly traded, vol 2X normal avg. . . . took some off here near/at the top and close.

Of course, GE's with SEC is without admitting or denying guilt. The $50M fine turns out to be 35 minutes of revenue for GE (adding together revenues from the last 4 quarters, and assuming 250 biz days per year, 8 hours per biz day).

If you can manipulate earnings through fraudulent accounting for a decade, and only pay 35 MINUTES OF REVENUES AS A FINE, wouldn’t you wait till the dust settled, and then go do it for another decade?

Sounds like an irresistibly good deal to me, since manipulating of earnings (Welch'es tricks weren't disclosed - in Fortune - till a few YEARS after he left) means super big bucks in management's already overstuffed pockets.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVAX&p=1&yr=0&mn=...

I can no longer afford to keep trading like this and must cease until a clear downtrend has begun if I am to keep my account. Admittedly happy to see JL fess up to the fact today that he is "Currently -35.9% since the bear market started on October 9, 2007 (17 months), but up 48.2% from the March low." But the doesn't compensate for the pain that I am presently feeling.

Admittedly the day was special because I realised that I could read the chart in real time and is why I have gone to the trouble to annotate it and print it out. I'll let you guys have a laugh at my expense as well. It was at the point that the negative MACDh readings were trending in a positive manner between 10:30 and 11:30 that I realised what was happening. My failure to act upon that momentum signal permitted the huge loss on the spike up where I finally admitted defeat. Bit a dumb bunny going back for deserts but there you go.

As an exercise I am now going to trawl through all of JL's picks and attempt to discern his decision processes when he buys. I have already annotated a couple of his intraday trades and I believe I see what he sees. A 1 min. MACDh indicator, amongst other data inputs like volume, really is in-your-face raw data moving at high speed so I see why daytraders and scalpers are kept so busy. But this is where I want to be. As a member of generation Playstation I find the rapid decision making process of technical trading more to my liking than longer term swing trades, not that I'm successful at either at the moment.

A comment yesterday from JL as to how he trades:

"I rarely play the general market, and these opportunities to max out come only once a month or so, and it's a near 100% guaranteed win (he is referring to the major move above resistance to S&P 1000). The rest of the time, I play the $1-5 stocks that have nothing to do with the movement of the general market. This strategy ensures that the highest probable patterns execute as planned, while taking advantage of major market moves."

I now seek the knowledge of the patterns he's looking for.

He also went in 100% on the move up to 1000. Why?:

"A break from major consolidation areas signal a major shift that is supported by a sustained move. This is rare, but when it happens, I make sure I go all in." An interesting point to note.

My moment of clarity (no, not claret) came today when I realised that the momentum indicators were functioning as they were supposed to. I've mentioned elsewhere how the momentum indicators are setting up short trades but gets one burned because the black boxes just keep on driving up the price on negative momentum. As I said before, these stocks that JL has gotten me to notice are off the beaten track of algorithmic computer programs. These sorts of stocks have their own issues, such as flipping on a dime thanks to the rapid action of traders, but the moves can be read with the tools that equip one's chart. I now go forth in the search for focus, harmony and the perfect trade :P

night all.

Anyone, please?

seems like a nice little rest stop after such a long drive north.

2nd - your history (both real estate and equity trading) mirrors mine over a long time horizon. It's interesting that I've been having exactly the same thoughts over the past week. I'm not sure if I'll stop the insanity - but I should....

Real estate has worked very well for me over the years and I'm fairly occupied now with a nice lakefront place I picked up - we'll likely hold it as our primary, and keep our current lake place as a rental / family use.

Best of luck on your journey wherever it takes you.

Dave

2nd

I bought my first house in Arlington, TX using the GI bill. The property doubled in value in 5 years. We sold the house when I got transferred to Baltimore. I used some of the equity from the sale to trade stocks. Within 13 months, I lost 18k. I was subsequently transferred from Baltimore to San Francisco where I barely qualified on a purchase of a house on the peninsula. Best investment I ever made…bar none! My advice to the young, buy a house on the cheap you can live in while fixing it up. Sell it after two years and repeat.

At the end of October 2008, I took advantage of the self-directed option on my 401k after the plan was down 38%. Since then I have managed to trade my back to an 11% loss, but not without a lot of hard work and some temporary setbacks. I still have a long way to go.

Heard former US ambassador to S. Korea on NPR saying it had pretty much been worked out behind the scenes prior to Clinton going.

I disagree with this. Buffett's businesses mirror the U.S. economy. Saying he lobbied hard for government bailouts to help his company is the same as saying he lobbied hard for government bailouts of our economy. If the S&P 500 is any indicator of the health of the economy I'd say it was a worthy lobby.

2nd_ave,

My only real estate is where we've lived for over 42 years now. (Paid it off ASAP) I have no other investment experience other than stocks and bonds.

I have done only a little short term trading over the years and have no intention of spending my retirement years sitting tensely in front of a computer. I much prefer a more leisurely approach.

As for as a case for the stock market I would just say that should we eventually get the outrageous inflation that seems inevitable due to the cavalier treatment the US taxpayer is receiving, stocks may be the best way to cope with it over the long haul.

Stocks will be priced in whatever currency we still use. I have been managing my retirement account since 1983 (the first year it was allowed for the self-employed). Two years ago I compared it to the Vanguard Total Stock Fund which began in 1985 (If I remember right). At that time I had average 10.15% — just slightly less than Vanguard which was also 10% and a fraction.

I did this while avoiding the tech bubble since I just couldn't bring myself to invest in companies without earnings or dividends and PEs in the stratosphere.

I've never had an econ class or any formal investment training.

If I could do that well — doubling each seven years while working approx 60 per week running my business I must say it ain't all bad and better than a lot of "managed accounts".

Maybe you're just trying to hard and trading too often. Waiting is the hardest thing to do. During that time I only went completely to cash two times, but I often saw no stocks to invest in and parked in bonds or notes.

I began buying bullion within the last two years and will continue on dips, but there will be some really good values before this mess eventually turns around — especially for you younger folks. Just keep your eyes open and try to be patient.

"Sometimes I mentally transport myself to a remote mountain top."

Why not transport yourself, physically, to a remote mountain top and review your effort. Few in this market can yet say "I've simply lost money, and then made it back".

A tune I listened to tonight to soothe my own restless soul:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2NEU6Xf7lM

And Grym and Dr. Cosa; these are sage words of advice. Much appreciated by all, I'm sure.

Since no one answered my initial question let me rephrase it. We know that the leveraged ETFs loose money in the long term. Some people and notably David advocated shorting ETF. I also tried that with not so good results. How about shorting both long and short ETFs and using options to leverage. I'm studying options now and looks like there could be unexpected results from vega risk of a position. Could someone please comment on this strategy?

2nd Ave - Say it isn't so - I sincerely hope that if you take a break from the market and this blog that it's only temporary. This blog and your posts helped me over time become a true student of the market. You along with Bill have a special gift in your ability to write on a level that many of us can relate to. I have seen your compassion in your writing as many of us were having a tough time over the past year. You are humble and always kept your cool. I wish you the best in wherever this journey takes you. GH

jack black - You're not being ignored, sounds complicated... Maybe someone here will be able to answer your Q, meanwhile, I suppose you have referenced investopedia, etc.?

http://www.investopedia.com/university/option-gree...

See this great article on ZH. Explains the 10:30 AM effect that Bill took note of the other day and lots more. POMO=permanent open market operations of the FRNY.

http://tinyurl.com/ndpnyo

http://www.penscotrust.com/education/RealEstateOve...

Here's a San Francisco-based company that specializes in self-directed real estate investment trusts. Well written overview of the process.

Important considerations:

(a) All-cash transactions work best. It's possible to carry debt in the IRA, but I'm assuming it will be difficult to find a lender. You would also be taxed on income and capital gains attributable to the leveraged portion.

(b) You cannot buy property from a relative (technically, a disqualified person- but for all intents and purposes, a relative), rent to a relative, or allow a relative to use the property when vacant.

(c) Don't let the unfamiliarity of the process stop you. It's easy to set up.

crew is in place for a buyout from MRK... I would peg it at $ 10.00 - $ 12.00 down the road... position: long

No way the Master Po I know has this as their swan song...

http://tinyurl.com/lqurpc

Mark- I've always thought this would make a great one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-5JvACzGp8&feature...

...

Mark- Interesting. We're trying to keep it simple for now. One single family home or condo. New or almost new. The kind of neighborhood we would want to live in, and the kind of neighbors we would like to have. Maybe a college campus nearby. Location is all important. As is the tenant base.

My folks had mixed experiences renting to college students in Ann Arbor in the seventies/eighties. My Mom has stories about the headaches, and if she could do it over again, wouldn't do it. Naturally, the IRS can't stand to see taxpayers benefiting in any way- o/w renting to our kids would be ideal.

I'll ask them about the liability problem.

F6,

very cogent response,

consider if demand is like energy, where ncreases in purchases of physical gold are matched by an equal decrease in mining (especially jr. mining) investment.

an increase in demand for physcial gold is parlayed as bullish for gold, yet it may have simply been money taken from mining investments and put into physical or a proxy as such.

if mining companies are having difficulty to obtain financing, consider that people involved in the industry and those who normally would consider investing large sums in it have failed to keep pace. what do they know to make them wary?

why are jr golds having so much problems, (which began well before the sub-prime crisis), and why havent any of the stories of M&A activity come true now that jr's are at their cheapest valuations in years, some cut down by %70 during the crash... what exactly are the majors and mid-caps waiting for?

The greatest benefit of waiting for a trend to change may be psychological. For seventeen consecutive trading sessions, long-term holders of short positions have had to sweat it out between close and open. How much more enjoyable to catch a film, take a weekend drive, tend to chores, or plan a vacation without the prospect of waking to yet another session of positions moving against you. Do the algo-boxes know your breaking point? No doubt.

And a building on the rise will eventually collapse under it's own weight that has a poor foundation...waiting and trying for a few quick kicks to the shins on the way...Thus, I believe, is the basis for the TOG.

Or, more simply..."You can't get there from here".

"You can't get there from here".

You can if it's Hollywood. You've been to Universal City, and know how they create rain, right? I believe that the Fed has more tricks than we're aware of. Beyond deft manipulation of the media, interest rates, and direct lines to trading desks. Beyond even the shrinks in the basement. There must be a million ways to pull investors' chains. It's mainly psychology that drives the markets, after all. Even when it's fundamentals, it's psychology- maybe the financial elves just turn the lights off and take a coffee break when fundamentals are going 'their way.' I'm not saying that's how it is...but if you're looking for ways to get there from here, it can easily be accomplished. You can't put a man on the moon using sophisticated psychological ploys, but you can certainly drive stock prices up. IMO.

2nd, Here is the company. I have never done business with them, but the concept is very appealing.

Illini said:> Les (A.K.A. Swiss Robinson) may have been under capitalized for what he was attempting.

Oh why did you need to dig up the past Illini - vis a vis SwissRobinson? The humanity of it all! Let bygones be bygones. :) The handle is Les!

Undercapitalised? You better believe it! I understand this argument now, especially as it pertains to SEC daytrading rules, gawd bless their heartless souls.

RE:> Besides that, it seems he was always seeking and trying out too many things at once.

I am a consumer, like everyone else, and consider myself a fair judge of what is money well spent. Perhaps my credibility rests in that at the age of 34, I (along with my wife Annie) have no credit card debt, no car leasing yet to be entirely honest, on the other side of the ledger, we have no savings either. The Australian taxpayer is picking up the tab on my bachelor degree, but I will certainly pay for the masters degrees that I desire to study in the future, for I enjoy learning (perhaps more so when its structured in formal education, for I am a lazy sod).

So having "spent" over $5000 this year, do I consider what I have learnt worthy of this expenditure. Absolutely! Paper trading would never have given me a focus or psychological commitment that putting real money on the line. I would not have read half the material that I have read this year, as I would have only been engaged in the market in a half-hearted manner. I have had an issue with discipline, but I can see that this is coming along as I have less and less compulsion to trade for trading's sake. A test of discipline for me now will be to accept that trading is no longer in my interest until the longs have shot themselves in the foot good and proper.

I have found a pro hand in daytrading who will permit me to peek over his shoulder. He has only been telegraphing his trades for a few weeks and I don't know how long he intends to continue doing so, but I intend to take advantage of this offer. I have learnt the hard way how options work and have to my credit kept away from these blighters for some time now. I intend to use them as David and Bill have remarked - write puts (especially in this ascending market) when stocks become oversold, vice versa when the market drops.

I am a stage 3 trader (according to 2nd's 4 stage trader article) in that I understand if I concentrate and focus but my trading sucks. Getting in and out profitably has to be worked on. I have tried many things and I can see from Vad's "Master Profit Plan" the utility of being able to switch trading strategies, especially in volatile markets. This sort of trading will be coming in handy for a specific market and understanding of daytrading will be further developed upon for putting into action when I am appropriately capitalised.

RE:> In particular, he delved into stocks below $5 perhaps too many times. Risky.

Au contraire, the charts are speaking clearly to me in this price range. Don't take my word for it, I posted a pro's trading agenda yesterday which specifically targets stocks in this price range. JL's overnight holds are linked below. I will be focusing on his moves and Bill's TOG moving forward, once this present bubble bursts. I have yet to develop a non-leveraged plan to ride the market back to fresh lows, but will think about this in the coming days. Shorting F, C, SPG maybe? Some SBB?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=YRCW&p=5&yr=0&mn=...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XRM&p=5&yr=0&mn=0...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UIS&p=5&yr=0&mn=0...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PMI&p=1&yr=0&mn=0...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OCNF&p=5&yr=0&mn=...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PACR&p=5&yr=0&mn=...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYC&p=5&yr=0&mn=0...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GKK&p=5&yr=0&mn=0...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CTIC&p=5&yr=0&mn=...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CPF&p=5&yr=0&mn=0...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ANPI&p=5&yr=0&mn=...

note commonality of these charts. Distinct lack of selling pressure. Heck I could see that in NVAX as I was getting burned, but was too stupid to step out of the way. Will work on my chart reading skills for now, and look to 1 months coaching with Vad to get in and out profitably once I am appropriately capitalised.

cheers.

p.s. made the money in real estate 2nd, or as much as can be made in this business cycle. 40% increase over last 5 years. But the credit binge is over and large increases like that won't be seen again for some time. Back to historical 2% yoy increases is my guess. Great as a pension insurance but we've already got one - that's enough for now. Fortunately demographic and geographic pressures ensure a fairly secure bottom on present prices. Expect small drop as economy really hurts in 2010. We've got young kids who are happy in situ, so flipping is not on the cards for the moment. That could change in ten years.

ALOHA !!

2nd ... I am glad you will still be here at the Cara Blog. Somehow I missed that vinod announced he was leaving. When did that happen? I notice no posting of late, but like someone mentioned he is busy. Did he leave permanently or is just taking a break also? Like Shark mentioned there have been numerous people that come and go here at CaraLand!

I liked what Bill said a few days ago about how the US FED can't manipulate every investment sector. It is true they cannot, but unfortunately we all must "cash out" our chips at some point and what we are forced to accept is a Federal Reserve Note. That is the MONEY MONOPOLY ... the MONEY ANTI-TRUST ... that Rothschild so brilliantly understood was the key to power over 230 years ago. It is amazing that the elite can still play the Rothschild Card for this long and we the "gamblers" in the Rothschild poker game still buy into the same multi-generational bluff! I can only attribute it all to a lack of education and a lack of poker skills. Certainly as an American who attended public school here there is no "real" formal education that teaches us how corrupt our monetary system is. Now why would the elite want that class offered? As high school students we are groomed to go out into the World and seek our fame and fortune using a money we have no understanding of at all. Its mind boggling when you stop to think. How many deep ditches have I been shoveling during my life sweating and bleeding in exchange for a piece of paper? I hazard to guess ...

Well, when I was a kid I used to hang out on the TV set of Lassie(Desilu Studios) every Summer as they shot in various locations around Southern California. My cousins owned 30% of Desilu back then. I can say the US FED is a lot like HOLLYWOOD! HA! The US FED is the "HOLLYWOOD OF MONEY"! I did learn during those Summers that the World is a tricky place and you can't always believe what the "storytellers" want you to believe, even though they always put up a very convincing facade ... Definitely "psychology" plays a major role in "movies and TV" and definitely "psychology" plays a major role in America and to be quite honest, when you study past Empires, psychology is very prevalent and was a widely used tool against the masses. Look at the mass psychology of DEBT in America. Here we have one of the wealthiest women in America, Oprah, a multi-billionaire, advertising every day the "wealth" of America on her TV show every chance she gets. Many times Oprah would use that "psychology of wealth" to get her followers to contribute funds in support of her various projects. We "feel" wealthy here in America. The American Dream has made us "feel" that way for many decades now, but as all Dreams do, they end! Since the American Dream is based on DEBT that dream ends when DEBT grows so large that it can no longer be serviced. That's the point we are at here in America, whether our own elected leaders want to admit it of not, whether we as citizens of America want to admit it or not.

Our leaders are trying very desperately to make the "pain" of overwhelming DEBT go away as fast as possible. This is why the "stimulus" is the cure in their minds ... The longer the "pain" persists the more we Americans are shown the dirty truth of our system and its highly vulnerability state. Its the "Grand Illusion" ... The last thing those in power here in America want us to see is that they are vulnerable. It was like that in the Wizard Of Oz. The only way the Wizard could maintain his power over people was to perpetuate the belief that he was God like. In America the government has trained us to believe that our government is God like. It is not ... in fact it is quite the opposite and that is what they fear most as our elected leaders stumble around looking for a way to beat this current crisis into submission. Their one and only tactic they have used for decades is to just simply throw money, massive piles of money. Why? Its a Keynesian thing and it has worked in the past. If we had a "real" monetary system and still adhered to the US Constitution the government would not and could not be God like. On our behalf, in 1913, we were sold out.

So while you say the US FED has many tricks and financial elves in the basement, their "model" is highly flawed and in a historical context has always failed. There just is no way to "spend yourself into prosperity" not in real terms. Isn't that what America has been doing? Spending ourselves into prosperity? It is isn't it? Like the Germans during the Weimar and WW1 and WW2, we are educated people with many advanced technologies, so how did we "allow" ourselves to be duped for so long? Power can only become Power if it is allowed. Therein lies their Achilles Heel is that DEBT is not real wealth, it is a paper fantasy, a figment of fiat. The World has been in a "fiat fantasy" for many decades now and waking up is what the cure is and "wake up" we will. Our government is doing its best to keep us asleep and we even elected(allowed)a Svengali of sorts to keep the dream going with the audacity of HOPE, but once your eyes are open there is no going back. I think that is what Bill has helped everyone to do here. I have certainly appreciated the platform to introduce monetary reality to the blogosphere. In the end it is "reality", it is the "truth" that we seek and we all know what the truth can do ... "set you free"! We all need to go back to our roots of Freedom and Liberty and not this watered down version we have all been forced to "settle for". The leg irons of DEBT is no future for our kids. We must all educate ourselves and most important educate the Youth. The Youth of America is our future. Tell them to stop worshiping at the Church Of IOU and wake up. Set them Free ...

So, yeah, be Free ... do it! Its is our Right as Americans. If you doubt that then just read the US Declaration Of Independence. That document is the Bible Of Freedom. Its time to take it all back ... Its way past time ... I feel the tide is turning in our favor. In these painful times, I think it is ...

FranSix,

I am not sure that the production volumes of the U.K. Royal mint are valid for assessing global demand as the volumes noted in the article were piddly compared to the Royal Canadian Mint.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Canadian_Mint
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Gold_Maple_Leaf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Silver_Maple...

Also, looking at production volumes tells you about supply(not demand). For example, the mint may have produced 35% less silver but if customers payed 1000% of what they payed the previous year, we can't conclude that there is less demand YoY.

ALOHA !!

The reality is that any look at long term charts shows clearly that if you bought into the "fear" and "hype" of the CNBC crowd during the 2007 and 2008 crash and sold gold you lost. While we all know where real estate went in that time period and where the DOW went and the USDX, gold has held up through it all. All the asset classes "deflated" gold did not. In 2007 when the Subprime was hit hardest the POG was in the $600USD range now the POG is in the $900 range. Where is real estate and the DOW?

POG 2000-2009: http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au00-pres.gif

The DOW in 2000 was between 9,000 and 11,000 now in 2009 we are coming off lows of March 9th at 6600 and we are today at 9300. In Oct 2007 the DOW was at 14,165, now look.

As a US real estate proxy IYR was at 93 on Feb 5 2007 and it is now at 38.

Need we look at the USDX? 2002 it was 120 now at 77!

So as we debate and belittle gold as a manipulated relic, lets not forget who put in the best long term performance all through this asset "deflation" crisis. In fact if you use the POG as a barometer of monetary deflation then we had no deflation. Even the US FED St. Louis admits that ...

IT IS WHAT IT IS!

GRMN Shares up 6.00
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINBNG...

Big mistake I sold this one.

vb

Dave Landry, channeling the Talking Heads?
"Random Thoughts:
"You may find yourself in a severely overbought market.
And you may say to yourself, well, how did it get here?
Same as it ever was, Same as it ever was:"

"This remains a very dangerous environment to trade
Wait for entries on new positions and honor your stops on existing
ones.
As a pullback player, ideally, I'd like to see a correction in
here.
My biggest concern is that everyone might run for the door at the
same time.
Hopefully though, it will be just enough to catch many of
guard---e.g. a Trend Knockout (email me if you need the pattern).
Again, be careful out there."

From Craig: Today is the eclipse in my sun sign, Aquarius. A solar eclipse in a couple days...cosmic reactions? Heck if I know but I'm cautiously awaiting a correction in our overbought casino. Good luck Caraistas!

Remember, same as it ever was, same as it ever was...

From Bloomberg:

More Deficits to Finance

I enjoyed the irony of having GS quoted in the article.

What did Vinod say he was doing? I missed it too.

Looks like a corrective phase may be upon us. And of course, I was up bright and early to stick my 'gots on the block if/when it seems appropriate, but it hasn't so far.

By now you've heard of the bad Yamana earnings, down 77 percent.

On another note, can you imagine being in a N. Korean prison looking at a decade of hard time one day, and all of a sudden the next thing you see is Bill Clinton? Say what you will, and joke if you must, but Bill Clinton must have looked about as good to them at that moment as anyone or anything ever has.

Yamana correcting to adjust to the earnings. Now do any of you smart cookies know WHY the Yamana earnings were so bad?

I am a certifiable retard when it comes to fundamental analysis.

Korvus....get some sleep man!

RIMM - Susquehanna Financial Initiates Coverage with a Positive rating.

Dear GE, BAC, C, AIG, ABK, this memo is to inform you all that it is time for a pullback. ;)