Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2009

Good morning.

DEO - Upgraded to Buy @ Deutsche Securities

WFMI - Deutsche Securities Initiates Coverage with a Hold. PT = $30

SNDK - Wedbush Morgan Initiates Coverage with a Neutral. PT = $20

Elliot Specter says the $USD has bottomed. If true, this would likely bring with it a new bout of deflation, lower equities prices, lower oil, gold, and Treasury rates.

Waahooo, long live deflation!

You still holding your short oil ETF's? I add some more DTO yesterday during weakness. This was a pleasure to see this morning---> "technical weakness showing up in the charts, for example oil is one of them" [Cara]

To Everyone,
I am all for informed decision making. I'm all for taking a measured approach to a serious problem. I'm in favor of providing vital care for those who need it as part of reform over time as we work out the kinks and problems. I think everyone should have the time to be able to read whatever is proposed, unrushed, and to debate and comment on the *facts* and compare proposals to what we have now. As such I think actual language needs to be cited and that e-mails listing one side's talking points and scare tactics, whatever side, is a disservice to us, to our citizenry who desperately need such reform, and our country and way of life. The process of CIVIL debate is essential to this process and debate of actual proposals are vital to our effort.

Shouting matches and disruption of meetings designed to disseminate such information and to hear reasoned questions and concerns of informed citizens should be met with arrests and expulsion by Sergeant at Arms/security guards/Secret Service and police. Intimidation and mob rule is not the American way.

E-mailing propaganda designed to scare the elderly and those who would see no change to their Medicare or Medicaid or existing insurance or free choices is not debate, it is fear mongering and should be met with disdain and severe prejudice. so should spendthrift choices that waste our tax dollars and resources. This is a fine line and reasoned debate and discussion is vital to finding that line for all of us.

Civil debate should be supported and un-rushed informed debate should be supported by everyone. We should all write our representatives and support this one point whatever side we believe. The rule of law is important.

I am concerned about all legislation. I am confident, if given the actual language and facts that we can make reasoned choices, but when either side of the debate resorts to propaganda and fear tactics, it clouds the process and sadly this is well known by the healthcare, insurance, and political forces who profit from the status quo and who have almost unlimited funds to do so.

New Coverage:

GG - Dahlman Rose Initiates with a Hold

KGC - Dahlman Rose Initiates with a Buy

FOMC meeting,
as said many times before, they will announce the ending or at least the easing of QE, which will in conjunction with recent bearish announcements by the BoE and EU give the dollar a jump.

people will gasp and proclaim "but the deficit!! but the spending!! how can the dollar go up, america is so burdened by debt!"... they will fail once again to realize 2 critical points:

1. the USD is still the worlds reserve currency, even if you liked the euro more, there arent enough of them to price most commodities in Euro's to conduct trade on a global scale, nor is there enough of any 1 world currency close to the US to handle other state treasury purchases.

2. other nations are in just as bad if not worse shape, FOREX is a game of comparisons.

why else is china still buying so much US debt?
think about it for a moment.
china makes comments about QE and its "concerns" about the dollar, while their budgets are inflating, and their printing presses are running overtime.

russia coming off an economic and currency collapse is expression concern over US debt... what do they suppose is a better alternative? roubles? russians dont even trust their own currency.

FOMC will do what people are already anticipating and you will see the dollar make some sort of move if its not already baked int he most recent bounce. gold will move lower alongside any market downturns and all you gold bullish monkeys will cry conspiracy, while your prophet Mr. Sinclair and Dan Norchini leave you with nothing but amusing blog posts for the past few years that left gold bugs holding the bag.

see you in the mid 800's when ill actually be buying more gold.

This is a must see.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/240653/m...

Sorry, I can't at this point, as it was on Bubblevision ( CNBC )...

Let's see if the practice of dip buying returns today.....

I think they finally have the ball for more than one play.

2nd- Pre-season ranked #12 in the nation. What?, Oh...I thought you were talking Cal football.

people mistakenly think the government is going to take over health care insurance.

they dont realize the government already oversee's health care for more people than most of europe's plan's combined in the form of VA, medicare and medicaid.
add to that emergency health care costs.

this is just another layer of healthcare red-tape, but it is doing nothing different than what insurance companies do, and that is:

1. define a standard practice for diagnosis and treatment.
a doctor can bill for an x-ray when he suspects a patient has a broken arm,
but not when they have a cut finger.

2. outline costs for care of long term cases, research and modality
when you attend physiotherapy you get 30 minutes say with a therapist,
not 60 minutes, and you have to wait about 10 minutes in the waiting room. of course the state or insurance company is limiting your treatment in some way by not allowing you 3 hours with a therapist at one time to do everything you might want. its a standard of care within limits.

3. there are at any given time the best MRI's, best doctors and best equipment avaible in a given hospital, but if you dont live nearby or in the same state/provence you might be getting an older MRI, a less quality surgical team in an older hospital. some consider this "sub-standard" care, while others consider it reality of not being able to give the best resources to everyone at every instance without bankrupting the nation.

4. people think coverage for themselves or their children are some sort of right, they are wrong, and to use this approach to justify health care is both wrong and dangerous. health care is an entitlement, the state must be responsible in its execution of healthcare to ensure it can care for its citizens without causing undue strain on the books.

if a state can only fund healthcare via massive debt financing and cant pay it back, then health care is by its nature nothing more than a pacifier to the masses, no better than dropping money from helicopters to make people think they benefit while in reality they will suffer.

5. since when did health care become such a hot issue, otherwise healthy 20 year olds worried about care?? why arent they worried about getting a good job w/ health care benefits and taking similar action to meet those ends as opposed to expecting the government to take care of it for them.

why not living a more healthy lifestyle to lessen the chance of needing health care and making good choices about health care coverage which you will pay for either directly or indirectly should the government take over.

watching news clips of mothers with 2 year olds at protest rallies screaming: "who's going to cover my baby!! help my baby!!", not realizing her baby is covered by a state plan until they are a teen, and if they ever enlist, or work for a medium/large corporation they will have coverage if they dont alrady have it under her work's plan.

barf!!!!!

wtfu!!!!

"They have zero interest in debate. Their goal is first and foremost to block discussion

I think this is an unfair generalization — which is what one side wants us to think.

Many people ARE angry due to attempts to ram this (whatever this is) through before the summer recess — we remember the TARP tactics.

Many others are scared because of the rumors and rhetoric on both sides. The elected representatives have certainly not provided a good example or attempted to turn down the heat.

This is an important and far reaching issue and we should take time to do it right

"Or, are we due for a substantial "adjustment" ?"

Yes we're due, and what we're witnessing may be the real thing or it may be another head-fake. The deciding moment comes with results from the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

If anyone disagrees or concurs, speak up now please!

I did a bit of gardening once for a British couple, husband being an ex-FTSE 100 CEO. Their reasons for being in Switzerland - tax avoidance. The commune they resided in were happy to let them purchase a local house of historical value, the former German consulate's residence, at a very reasonable price in exchange for its maintenance.

How long before those investors getting fried by HM Customs tells Her Majesty to "drop dead" and find a friendlier tax environment.

This cat and mouse game for the peoples' dollars has just begun.

Whats up with these two?

Agreed Dave. Everyone needs a level playing field.
If government health care is good for our elected officials and we all pay for it, then it shouldn't be a problem for them to participate in their own proposal. It does concern me that it then might be more than basic care, as they don't appear to have the healthiest of life styles.

Looks like a tracking error that's bound to correct itself.

I am surprised at the acolades given craigs diatribe last evening. Repeated use of words like stupid, dumb, racist, etc, etc do little to advance a conversation. I am very happy with the medical facilities available to me in Austin and recently had a cancer operation. I think there are more MRIs in Austin than many of the provinces in Canada and the main impediment to my operation was the amount of time I took talking w/ radiologist/sugeon, etc to determine method of treatment. I would hate to get into a situation where the Hippocratic Oath is not the primary concern for all. I would feel very comfortable with anything that is advanced that includes federal employees, congress and the executive.

Ah, I duuno Bill.
The Turks and Caicos have an "interesting" banking system.

Fed delays treasury purchases

Ahh, maybe that explains the sudden change of heart and the heavy equities selling.

Yes Bill, I agree. (ex-banker)
The Turks and Caicos are a British Protectorate, yet it has a rogue banking system.
Also it is very easy to hide money, and sometimes paper trails are hard to follow.
So I hear!

Craig, as much as I totally agree with what you are saying, I question whether it really matters any more. The US just went thru its process of picking a new president with sooo much hoopla, and what did it get? From my perspective it's just the democrats turn to steal from everyone they can. Then when everyone tires of that, they will turn to Sarah Palin as its new visionary. I know this is a totally jaded view but that's where I'm at. I think the whole political process is bought and paid for and it doesn't matter one bit what anyone else thinks. If they don't get entirely what they want this time then it will be the next time. Everyone has an agenda and its become very tiring. I respect your view and Bill's tireless efforts. Sorry for the rant.

"The real problems for German shipping companies still lie ahead. The orders for new container ships now on the (Chinese? I think) shipyards' books represent a total capacity of 5.3 million TEUs, or about 50 percent more than the current worldwide fleet capacity. Even if global trade recovers by next year, this glut of new ships will create enough excess capacity to depress shipping prices."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,151...

Some ideas for shorting there.

telling the whole world last month to buy, buy, buy financials... Now, he says the banks won't make money for at least two quarters, and to sell, sell, sell.... what a piece of sh##.....

I wonder why that would be. :)

Tobyt,
I admit that I was reacting to the propaganda in the e-mail. I ask, how are we to respond to constant reference to ACORN and other groups that have and will have nothing at all to do with healthcare? The use of ACORN as a talking point is racist, as we all know it is an organization that represents the interests of the poor and those of minorities. But how many here really know anything about ACORN? The organization isn't even nationwide and it is nothing more than a lobby group like any other, although certainly not as well funded as the medical lobby or insurance lobby or the groups organized to create disorder at public discussions of healthcare.

Citing ACORN is a diversion just as the tactics of saying the President is not born in this country or this healthcare is directed at illegal aliens, and is a diversion meant to disrupt public discourse by means of dividing one group from another using racial talking points.
It must be met with severe contempt and those using the tactic re-directed to the core issues that must be presented and discussed. If you don't like the word racist used, then refrain from using racially charged diversionary tactics and stick to the facts. The FACT is ACORN is not involved in any way in the dispensing of healthcare in this country beyond it's legal right to lobby on behalf of those it represents. That is the poor, whether caucasian or minority. I do find the use of racial motives dumb and stupid, just as I find Nazi's and racism in general dumb and stupid, but I will really try to stick to the topic and re-direct it to the core of the discussion.

There is no attempt, nor could there be, to override the oath taken by doctors to preserve life and do no harm, that is a canard meant to unnecessarily frighten people, most of whom have little understanding of the issues. For instance, I'll bet most Caraistas don't know the difference between Medicare and Medicaid, as most don't have the experience or exposure to these programs as they are on private plans. Doctor Cosa provided a great synopsis of where we are in this discussion and what the limits and needs are.

Postulating on the FOMC results, there could be an announcement proclaiming the end of the curious practice known as QE. This would I believe help establish a floor under the $USD as well, and sadly enough could further limit flight from the dollar. ie: gold weak, equities weak, oil weak, Treasuries strong.

Is anyone working to assemble the pieces, am I preaching to the choir, or are we simply trading the tape?

So without the Fed supporting the treasury market, perhaps the only way they can keep money flowing to those auctions is to sacrifice the equity market on the altar of US government debt?

"sacrifice the equity market on the altar of US government debt?"

It's beginning to sound that way, but is that what they want us to believe? Regardless, the equities market must be overbought by now anyway and HB&B could use the opportunity to short and make more cash.

We'll see, I'm not taking a position yet.

CP,

"Yes we're due, and what we're witnessing may be the real thing or it may be another head-fake. The deciding moment comes with results from the FOMC meeting tomorrow."

Well, we are sure to get something definite from the FOMC meeting —
another attempt at a head-fake;)

Funny isn't it that many of same special interests who lobbied hard behind the scenes for the financial company bailout, now north of 4 trillion dollars (which represents some 40 years worth of national health care btw)now oppose NHC.

At least appreciate the dizzying array of financial interests allied against national health care reform, just as they were 17 years ago the last time this was tried.

The twisted part is when they show some poor shmoe truck driver or whomever, saying "Get your government hands off my Medicare" as though Medicare were not national health care.

I live in Connecticut, the insurance capital of the world (read: reptile preserve) and I happen to know for a fact, you can't sue a doctor for malpractice here unless he plunges a chainsaw into your chest, or runs you over with his car of some other dramatic shit like that. Actual medical malpractice is not really actionable. The judges and the courts, and therefore the laws all favor the defendants. Undestand this as well....Some of the whitest, richest, cracker-assed WASP businessmen alive are in the insurance and re-insurance business.....Rich white men take to the insurance business by the way like a duck's ass to water. My point is, when you go up against the insurance business, you are going up against some very well connected country club types who, when they say they want their country back, actually mean they want their country back from the negro president who just won.

Mark my words peeps......When national health care is done, poor people who never had insurance will, most of all, wish the damn thing had never happened. This is just a way to suck a lot more money out of the system for our actual enourmous health care costs. They're not going to get the health system reigned in....they're going to get it paid!

I don't know.

tobyt,

Your point is well taken. Several years ago a friend of ours in England told us our 3 MRIs in our city of 150,000 was as many as there were then in England.

I'm sure you were able to chose to have an MRI or not and hope you had no insurance company interference with the doctor's recommendation to have one. There should be no doubt as to future patient choice in such circumstances. It is fear of government control which is central to many of the people at these town meetings.

I do not trust the government to decide for me on economics, why would I trust them with my health?

Best wishes for a full, speedy recovery.

In general I would agree, but Pelosi, etc. have made comments which primed the audience before going to these meetings. How the meetings are conducted and what reactions would I expect also contribute to the reactions from people.

Try to imagine the town meetings along about 1775.

People are generally fed up with government handling of most issues right now — I think we need an will see a lot of outrage in order to get their attention.

Perhaps a bit more would have had an effect on preventing the TARP debacle.

From many of your comments here recently, I had a good laugh when reading this one calling for civility :-)

So if its an MRI you're wanting, I suggest you go to Thailand. My mom had a bike accident, bumped her head, and she got an MRI. Well actually she got to stay overnight at a hospital, had some minor surgery, a bunch of tests including that MRI, she was fussed over by a surprising number of doctors and nurses, and it all came to about $800. I think the MRI was $150. And we waited about 3 minutes in the ER for treatment.

Apparently, it's a Medical Destination for many people in the middle east.

"From many of your comments here recently, I had a good laugh when reading this one calling for civility :-)"

I characterize propaganda and racism as stupid or dumb, but I promise I won't tell anyone to GD stuff it. I have my limits.

"The system is broken and needs fixing."

When was the last time government succeeded at fixing anything? I'm not impressed with the track record at the moment, I haven't felt this way since about a second ago and the second prior to this one... on into negative infinity.

What part of: THE MORE THINGS CHANGE THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME is so difficult to comprehend? Any discussion is futile as long as the same two party aristocracy resides.

That said, I'm not going to get in the way, I'm just going to step back and when it's all over I will only be able to say: I TOLD YOU SO! like a thousand times before.

Bill, there is a little difference, although I think Obama needs to control himself as well.

As a participant in a sanctioned event, people do not have the right of free speech. There are certain rules of decorum in many organizations events.
For instance, as a licensed AKC judge I cannot criticize the AKC, judging, dogs, purebred dogs, dog breeds or question the judging of others on my way to, while attending as a participant, judging an event, or on the way home from an AKC dog event. the scope is purposely broad to protect the sport.
The same is generally true of the CKC and I am licensed in Canada as well.

I'm pretty sure Tiger knows the rules, and if he broke them by criticizing an official, he has to live with the consequences or he can choose to not participate in events sponsored, sanctioned or held by that organization.
I know I am protected as a judge at AKC/CKC events from public criticism and the trial committee will call a bench committee if it happens on my part or on the part of others, and a fine and suspension may result.

Criticizing an official is not the best way to win favor, this I know. The best way is to keep your mouth shut and remove all doubt next time or avoid events using that official.

Grym, your medicare drug benefit is controlled by two factors, Medicare and the insurance company you chose to provide the drug benefit. The INSURANCE company has a list of allowed drugs and they all differ amongst the companies you can choose from.

The government has little if anything to do with it. I know this because I manage my mother's affairs and I have to choose the companies that provide the services she needs or is likely to need. I will tell you that AARP/UNH is one of the better choices according to my mom's pharmacist.

"So if its an MRI you're wanting, I suggest you go to Thailand. My mom had a bike accident, bumped her head, and she got an MRI. Well actually she got to stay overnight at a hospital, had some minor surgery, a bunch of tests including that MRI, she was fussed over by a surprising number of doctors and nurses, and it all came to about $800. I think the MRI was $150. And we waited about 3 minutes in the ER for treatment."

Right there is our health care problem in a nut shell. That same treatment would of been 20,000 dollars in USA. Cost is the number one. The medical system needs to be totally overhauled it needs to be blown up. The USA should be able to provide all citizens the worlds best health care at a reasonable price. The majority of us can work all our life and have one illness and be destitute. Who made this MEDICAL MAFIA? How come a 10 min operation costs $10,000. One pill costs $100? A nights stay $5000? Why does everyone except these costs as legitimate. Everyone keeps bragging about the availability of MRI's in America. You want to know why? Simple business the margin on those machines is enormous. The machine pays for itself in weeks and we all pay for pretty pictures of lil Johnny's sprained ankle. We are big suckers for accepting this as the status quo.
Bob

bobbyo - I sent the IRS 10 toilet seats as payment this past April, haven't heard anything back from them.

John Jansen just suggested that the Obama administration could run the deficit to something just shy of infinity and still make the interest payments based on financing the debt,
one of the posters agreed, adding his perspective that efforts so far have been Lilliputian.

Judge Rakoff, who was last week expected to "rubber stamp" the settlement, set a hearing for Monday afternoon to consider the agreement. He wanted to establish if the payment was in the public's interest as it allowed BoA to avoid either admitting or denying the allegations.

After the hearing, Judge Rakoff said that if the regulator is right in its assertion that BoA lied about whether it knew that Merrill could pay bonuses, then the $33m settlement is not "remotely reasonable".

"Don't I need to know what the truth is to make a determination?" Judge Rakoff said after the hearing. "Is there not something strangely askew in a fine of $33m?" He added the settlement "seems to be lacking in transparency".

Both sides will now make simultaneous submissions on August 24, and the judge set September 9 as the date on which to hear their responses.
http://bit.ly/boLdi

Craig - "you realize of course that there is no Obama plan per se, right?"

You make a good point there, it appears Obama may place his okey-dokey stamp of approval on a self-interested composed and biased balloon likely made of lead. Now that takes guts, I would probably distance myself if I were him, for the sake of nothing else but change.

The next step in change he might consider is to slam shut and lock the gates on the well-worn path special interests have beaten to public coffers.

"Tiger is truly bigger than the entire stupid sport of golf."

And any controversy over what Tiger does and says isn't likely to detract attention. hmm, I think I know the story... sounds like a symbiotic relationship.

According to a report issued by the Federal Reserve, consumer credit contracted for the fifth consecutive month in June.

Revolving credit lines, such as credit cards, declined for the tenth straight month.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/154940-crackdown-o...

what happened to providing credit to goose the economy?

This is more like what I had expected to hear, the country owes it to the vets that go off to serve the country risking their life, limb and family structure. For this I thank all vets and wish them well.

Whoever was devious enough to massage media reports and broadcast them with ill intent are the real terrorists we must seek to overcome. People are gullible by design, my hope is a majority of Americans will take notice but the messages are so convoluted I don't think the public will ever really have a clear understanding.

Agree ChickenPookie! and for the record I read all of your posts... I like your forward thinking... i am with you trying to help keep the messages stay clear but i am beginning to realize it is so much bigger than me and my small world I just cannot keep up with all the bs that is out there... I try to talk to my friends and family and at each turn of the conversation i can "hear" they have gotten the miss-info already and did not bother to research or look it up so it is hard to try and help correct folks thinking when for some reason the immediately think what they heard on TV or from the radio or from a co-worker or email that they think that is the "truth" wow... I am getting a little wiser as i get older... learning to pick my battles... ok now back to learning from all you fine folks the art of trading...

Gee, I wonder what it would have been if Congress had not tightened the rules a few years ago, at the urging of HB&B?

Referring to the blogs I'm following. fwiw.

Could it be that I was able to time perfectly both the bottom of the March drop and a top in the current rally? I gave up on shorting ultra-shorts (effectively, closed my bets on the market turning up) at the intra-day low of the March drop, and last Friday I finally sold some of my SRS as I figured that the market is definitely going higher. :) I hope people here took note of the post I made of giving up and selling some SRS at a loss.

Lucky for me, right after I sold some of my SRS on Friday at $11, I recalled on Friday my experience at the March lows and figured that all the remaining bears felt the same way on Friday after seeing the unemployment rate go down, and so I bought back at the same price ($11) the SRS shares I sold 20 minutes earlier. If Friday was indeed the top of this rally, then my giving up on a trend change could be indeed counted as a very good indicator of trend reversals. :)

Craig,

There's one glaring inconsistency in your argument...While it may be true that in a sport such as basketball which lends itself to betting, a misplaced sense of confidence in the integrity of the officials may, for both the casual fan and the frequent bettor be a necessary condition for emotional and financial participation.

However in baseball, which does not lend itself to sports betting for whatever reason, the fans have very little faith in the ability of the umpires to officiate consistently and correctly. Witness the ascendance of Questek or however you spell it. And it's interesting also that in baseball we see that officials seem, for whatever reason to find it emotionally gratifying when they erroneously alter the outcome of a game, for such behavior seems both willful and also unremunerative financially.

My point is, the average baseball fan doesn't have too much or too little faith in an umps ability to officiate properly; sometimes they do and sometimes they don't. We've all seen close plays where the ump seems to get it right, usually the first base ump, and we've all plate umps who call inconsistent strikezones. The zone should be the zone. A foul in basketball should be a foul.

Strangely golf is maybe the one game where you really don't need officials at all. Officiating in all the other sports is far more subjective. So I would suggest that the golf scenarios is far worse than simply getting a pitch wrong or a close play at home even. This official interjected himself wrongly into the competition and altered it's outcome needlessly. By needlessly I mean that the 6pm eastern newscasts weren't being threatened time-wise by the anticipated finish time, as far as I know.

Golf is the only game on earth where, you stand even near the ball with a club in your hand and the wind blows the ball, you get a penalty. What the HECK is that?

I agree with everyone's theories. However, I can't ignore the strength of the markets' rebound. This rebound way above the 200 day moving average tells me the trend has changed. It's a long term trend that I have looked on back throughout the markets' history and buying the market when the market is 3% above the trendline and selling when it is 3% below has worked about 90% of the time.

Do I think it can fall back? Yes, probably at some point this year it will. But I have to think we've seen the lows just based on price action. I think there will be some similarities to the price action back in 1932-34 where there was a huge run, then a dip back down that scared the crap out of bulls who called the bottom and then a huge rally higher 6 months or so after the ultimate lows...

To brighten the mood and off topic of trading for a moment...
Stay up past midnight, grab a blanket and go stargazing tonight: The year’s most spectacular meteor shower is expected to peak Wednesday morning around 1 a.m., and then again just before dawn. The Perseid meteor shower happens every year in August, when the Earth travels through a cloud of debris left by the periodic comet Swift-Tuttle, which last entered our atmosphere in 1992. Under optimal conditions, up to 80 shooting stars can be seen every hour, although how many you’ll see tonight depends on cloud cover, the brightness of the moon and the proximity of city lights.
http://bit.ly/26LzQY

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/6...

:)

"I think there will be some similarities to the price action back in 1932-34 where there was a huge run, then a dip back down that scared the crap out of bulls who called the bottom and then a huge rally higher 6 months or so after the ultimate lows..."

teamonfuego, that "dip" after the initial rally off the 1932 lows erased 75% of that rally in the Dow. If we had a similar "dip" now, that would bring S&P down to about 750. I think many bears will be content with the 800 level and will close all their shorts there (I will). So a "dip" down to 750 will scare the crap not only out of the bulls but also out of the bears who might switch to bullish positions too early.

If Tiger is so good, then he needs to act like it and remove all doubt.
If he stands too close to the ball on a windy day, then he's not that good and doesn't factor in the rules, no matter how silly they appear. There is a reason the rule is there. It is to prevent cheating or the appearance of cheating. That's pretty important.

In my sport some judges will call a dog off the field if a dog is on the far side of a sheep and suddenly the sheep moves sideways from what appears to be a bite, even if they don't directly see the bite. Physics is physics. Sheep don't suddenly lurch sideways and golf balls don't generally get blown on turf by the wind. The official in golf has to decide, did the contestant move the ball of did the wind? It is only your opinion this official interjected himself, you yourself were not there and didn't witness it, you are judging by second/third/fourth/TV/internet hand information, so it really doesn't count. It still stands, if Tiger is so good then he KNOWS all the rules in his favor or against his favor and he needs to use them to his advantage or he's a poor sport or ignorant. I doubt he is ignorant of the rules. Either way a pro moves on or he proves he's a chump. Everyone will think the better of him if he let's it go and moves on. They will still see it for what it is. But if he picks up a phone and suddenly an official is gone or he announces some action, they will see Tiger trying to curry favor and he will be seen as a poor sport trying to bully officials, perhaps not on his merit. I'll bet his father, were he alive, would council him to move on too. It will actually make him even bigger.

Vadym - I concur. Closed my QQQ puts about 10:30 this AM, since it appeared that support around $39.00 would hold. When this changes I'll likely jump back in.

Dave

Bill, gotcha! :>) LOL!

Nice 2nd!

Check this out....
http://thepatternsite.com/RSUpdate.html See the CPI in the upper right corner.
(Two half green arrows).
Here's how to interpret it.
http://thepatternsite.com/Updates/CPIMSG.HTM

More likely it is because more CNN people are friendly toward Obama and CNBC viewers are not.

No. Say it is not so Vad. Didn't the job numbers reaction give the tell on the "how rallies end" prognostication. Earnings are over. I don't think another Helicopter Ben show is in store since the recession is over, right. Gosh golly guess I will move up my stops.
Bob

That was first tell, yes... but it's rarely a one punch game. Action over these two days make me think, another shakeout is in cards.

Don't take it as a prediction, I make no such thing. I make working assumptions, then build scenarios based on confirmation or denial by market action. Right now mine is this.

"Vad- I'm not placing any bets today, but if I had to place one, I'd bet we see 1050 before we see 950. It would be a very small bet, however."

2nd_ave, that's exactly how all the bears are thinking now, if they are closing some shorts and opening long hedges. Buying dips has been very profitable recently, and so I think it is not surprising to see some dip buying today. This only shows that both bulls and bears are expecting this rally to continue. Is the market likely do what the majority is expecting?

Notice how the dip-buying turned out today: a sell-off right into the close. That would be in a stark contrast to rallies into the close that we have been seeing over the past few weeks.

LOL! Does it really matter? If you're in cash blame away, if not it's your money so it won't matter who you blame, right?

Craig said:

Alright, this is the most inane pathetic unadulterated bullshit. I know it's going to be long, but let's take each of these moronic assertions, most of which are made up $hit from the mouths of lying snakes, lobbyists, jagoffs and posted by ...well, if you post this and quotes aren't in quotes and the language isn't quoted, you're a chump of the lowest order. If the shoe fits...you know what to do.
Fact: Yes Martha the "devil" IS in the details, of which this post contains NONE.
Of course it's shocking, because it's MADE UP propaganda meant to scare morons, old people and dupes.

So I'm a chump of the lowest order for posting the email I received on health care reform. I did not claim the
validity of the information... I just said members should consider the information. I think you owe me an apology
for your rabid name calling. You seem to be just as full of BS as you accuse others of being. You were yelling
at the town meeting here at the Cara Community. Maybe the Sergeant at Arms or Secret Service should escort you out of the room

Here's a few examples:
For those who want to read HR 3200 you can Google it...

Page 149:
Any employer with a payroll of $400K or more, who does not offer the public option, pays an 8% tax on payroll.

*** Are you saying that the public plan replaces the existing insurance? Wow!
I just know that those millions of lobbyist money spent by the insurance monopolists have gone to waste accepting this lie! HINT: If you have insurance you keep it, you CAN'T GET the public option. Right now the uninsured all have the public option...tax payer funded emergency room care, or they DIE! Fabulous!

SEC. 412. RESPONSIBILITIES OF NONELECTING EMPLOYERS.

(a) In General- Section 3111 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 is amended by redesignating subsection (c) as subsection (d) and by inserting after subsection (b) the following new subsection:
`(c) Employers Electing to Not Provide Health Benefits-
`(1) IN GENERAL- In addition to other taxes, there is hereby imposed on every nonelecting employer an excise tax, with respect to having individuals in his employ, equal to 8 percent of the wages (as defined in section 3121(a)) paid by him with respect to employment (as defined in section 3121(b)).

Page 150:
Any employer with a payroll of $250K-400K or more, who does not offer the public option, pays a 2 to 6% tax on payroll.

***IOW, business be very afraid of our lies. Not scared yet? Darn.
SEC. 313. EMPLOYER CONTRIBUTIONS IN LIEU OF COVERAGE.

(a) In General- A contribution is made in accordance with this section with respect to an employee if such contribution is equal to an amount equal to 8 percent of the average wages paid by the employer during the period of enrollment (determined by taking into account all employees of the employer and in such manner as the Commissioner provides, including rules providing for the appropriate aggregation of related employers). Any such contribution--
(1) shall be paid to the Health Choices Commissioner for deposit into the Health Insurance Exchange Trust Fund, and
(2) shall not be applied against the premium of the employee under the Exchange-participating health benefits plan in which the employee is enrolled.
(b) Special Rules for Small Employers-
(1) IN GENERAL- In the case of any employer who is a small employer for any calendar year, subsection (a) shall be applied by substituting the applicable percentage determined in accordance with the following table for `8 percent':
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If the annual payroll of such employer for the preceding calendar year: The applicable percentage is:
Does not exceed $250,000 0 percent
Exceeds $250,000, but does not exceed $300,000 2 percent
Exceeds $300,000, but does not exceed $350,000 4 percent
Exceeds $350,000, but does not exceed $400,000 6 percent

Page 167:
Any individual who doesn’t' have acceptable healthcare (according to the government) will be taxed 2.5% of income.

***Because we know paying more in taxes for ER care or NO CARE is far better, even if this IS total BS!

SEC. 59B. TAX ON INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT ACCEPTABLE HEALTH CARE COVERAGE.

`(a) Tax Imposed- In the case of any individual who does not meet the requirements of subsection (d) at any time during the taxable year, there is hereby imposed a tax equal to 2.5 percent of the excess of--
`(1) the taxpayer's modified adjusted gross income for the taxable year, over
`(2) the amount of gross income specified in section 6012(a)(1) with respect to the taxpayer.

Page 170:
Any NON-RESIDENT alien is exempt from individual taxes (Americans will pay for them).

***Really? Is this part of healthcare, the IRS tax code, or just total crap?
Let me guess.

Sec 59B (2) NONRESIDENT ALIENS- Subsection (a) shall not apply to any individual who is a nonresident alien.

I dunno David. It still feels like things are completely under control of HB&B. They just decided to turn left today. Tomorrow they could easily just turn right. Nobody has taken the ball out of their hands yet. This is just a new chapter of the game being played, not a populist swell of traders engaging in serious profit taking.

I've looked at al my short candidates. Really, there's no volume in this decline yet. And I saw no "distribution" volume at the top. It doesn't feel right. Perhaps there are not enough bagholders for HB&B to distribute to yet.

"David- I think they give the shorts one night to party."

Well, we'll see tomorrow. Your intuition is almost always correct.

ALOHA !!

One of the "benefits" of World Reserve Currency status is that we can destroy our future in a more thorough and complete manner as the rest of the World "bets" on it! My God who are backing all those credit default bets?

$11.6TRIL USD PUBLIC DEBT and $13.4TRIL USD EXTERNAL DEBT and unfunded liabilities of the entitlements into the $101TRIL USD range. How soon before they just stop counting so the USDX can rally again?

The USDX is holding up great its only lost nearly 40% its trade value since 2002 when it was at 120! Hey, look at that ...

David- Why not just take the 14% gain on SRS, and let tomorrow's action dictate further trading? Personally, any time I make 14%, I'm happy. If you want 28%, then make 14% twice.

ALOHA !!

Mokat posted - "(1) shall be paid to the Health Choices Commissioner for deposit into the Health Insurance Exchange Trust Fund ..."

So Obama wants to start up yet another TRUST FUND, eh?

Can I show you guys here what happens to TRUST FUNDS in America? Every one of them are all full of IOUs, not just any ordinary IOUs, but "UNMARKETABLE" IOUs. Its called "Government Account Series" ... GOOGLE IT!

This is a new scam to cover the old scam of Medicare. Technically speaking its a default!

Even David Walker warned us that with the BIG PHARMA and BIG INSURANCE Medicare will outrun Social Security as the most bloated government IOU depository! In essence all this boils down to is BIG PHARMA and BIG INSURANCE WELFARE ... It has been for as long as I have been alive!

Once again where would these Fortune 500 companies be without the US government and the US Taxpayer largess.

kaimu - "The USDX is holding up great its only lost nearly 40% its trade value since 2002 when it was at 120! Hey, look at that ..."

You're absolutely right, hard to believe the dollar can remain so strong but there's your proof, right there in the charts.... ;) Where too from here, the dollar raced to the top last year when the world thought we were headed to hell in a hand-basket and gold took a swan dive? I see the same cycle repeating if this market sells off again and that's where I want to buy my gold in hopes the crowd finally gets it right.

I hear ya CP, I'm waiting for gold to tank to back up the (paper gold) truck as well. And FWIW I think you're right about the buck rallying on bad news from other areas.

But I think we might have one more dip before it happens. There's a nice (bullish) reversal doji today on SLW, a hammer on UUP, GG is down at daily RSI 31, and it just feels like our 4-day dollar rally might just reverse for a few days just to throw a wrench into the works.

Ultimately I think our USD goose is cooked, and the USD will end up continuing down just like Kaimu says, but until the music stops, we dance.

Wait, who said that again? :)

Kaimu I think CP was merely jesting. :)

From http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-meltdown.... Conclusions on page 2:

"Revolution coming with next meltdown

Americans are not going to put up with the "Wall Street Conspiracy" ripping off investors and taxpayers much longer. Wall Street got rich sticking us with mountains of debt for generations to come.

Expect a major house-cleaning, a second American Revolution. We predicted the "Great Depression 2" around 2012. Well, we doubt taxpayers will passively sit one more time, like in the 1930s, in 2000, and the past few years. Next time voters will take a page from the history books about past revolutions in the American Colonies, France and Russia. A perfect storm will erupt in a massive global credit meltdown, bringing down Wall Street and the clandestine $670 trillion shadow central banking system. And the collateral damage will be massive and widespread, in areas such as these:

Lobbyists' power is lethal to our values. Special interests are running and destroying American democracy, will self-destruct.

Derivatives: Cap 'n trade will crash worse than subprime. The Goldman Conspiracy's spending millions lobbying for trillion-dollar derivatives.

"Too-greedy-to-fail" big banks will trigger harsh backlash. Banks pay huge bonuses yet modify only 9% of 4 million stressed home loans.

America's wealth gap will trigger grass-roots rebellion. Wall Street's greed is so pervasive, gluttonous and obvious the rest will rebel.

The "Goldman Conspiracy" will be a target for retribution. Goldman's hubris is most egregious and flagrant. Their arrogance will backfire.

Wave of creative destruction will revive commercial banking. Investment bankers are killing commercial banking, Glass-Steagall will return.

Secrecy protecting Wall Street's unethical behavior to end. Wall Street's control over Washington's lawmaking will come to an end.

The Fed's shadow banking will collapse under excess debt. Central bank balance sheets overdrawn, feeding new bubble with cheap money.

A "Black Swan" of huge unintended consequences. Next bubble, highly unpredictable, huge collateral damage on Wall Street.

Make the most of this new bull. Then get out -- before you're the collateral damage."

SRS should be relatively quiet before the announcement (unless GS got a preview again)and then spike in either direction or both afterward. Of coarse it could do nothing. The downside risk which i think is remote, is some FED move to depress interest rates. Everyone expects Gentle Ben to read last months notes, but if there is any hint of future tightening SRS will spike hard. Trying to preserve the value of the dollar, Service all the US debt at a low interest rate and keeping equities in rally mode is not sustainable. Which ball is going to drop first.

David-

Waiting until a position trades back above your basis before taking profits can often feel like chasing a mirage. You may never get there. All the while, you may be passing up dozens of 14% profit-taking opportunities that, even if SRS never trades back above 14 in its lifetime, can still earn you huge profits. Just to pull a name out of a hat- Let's say you bought JAVA at (a split-adjusted) 250 in 2000 (I remember it as SUNW at 60). It's unlikely to hit that again-so you may well end up handing them down to your grandson in 30 years. On the other hand, the trader who buys and sells JAVA several hundred times in the next 30 years, may well retire on his winnings.

Speaking of the 'Mirage.' Another perspective would be the countless times I've lost the pass line bet at craps, yet walked away a winner simply because I had bets 'all across' the board. If the point is '5,' it doesn't need to ever come up 5 for you to win. While you're waiting for either a '5' or a '7' to end the game, every roll until that happens can earn you money.

They still have $50B to play with even if they call an end to QE (which in light of the Ginnie Mae and FHA nightmare I don't think is going to happen) they can still play for a while longer, whether by direct POMO or with a little two-step as with the 7-year the other week.

To propose another possible narrative, the Chinese got the longer-term TIPS to start up again (there is talk of the reintroduction of the 30-year TIPS that was last issued in 2001). If so, they got took, as the CPI has been being cooked for years (ask anyone who's been on Social Security for a while).

Interesting that Canada is putting the full court charm offensive on in Asia (not for nothing did you see Flaherty on Bloomberg this last week) to drum up investment. And it looks like they're getting some results, too.

As usual, my prediction accuracy is terrible, don't you dare trade on my ramblings... :)

OOOOkay.....

The reason you can't provide amounts where individuals are exempt is because you are trying to cite an incomplete bill. There are no amounts for adjusted gross income in the bill, they are left blank, so your accusations are unfounded because no one can make any deterimination until those amounts are decided upon. It's pretty hard to say "Any individual who doesn't have acceptable healthcare (according to the government) will be taxed 2.5% of income" when that is determined by adjusted gross income but the bill doesn't tell you what that AGI is yet!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Page 170 about non-resident aliens refers to section 151. RELATION TO OTHER REQUIREMENTS, which is about coverage NOT offered through the exchange.
This means they are exempting certain people including non-resident aliens from paying taxes on coverage because THEY CAN'T GET COVERAGE under Section 151.
Here it is: Starting on pg 169:
‘‘(c) EXCEPTIONS.— 19
‘‘(1) DEPENDENTS.—Subsection (a) shall not 20
apply to any individual for any taxable year if a de- 21
duction is allowable under section 151 with respect 22
to such individual to another taxpayer for any tax- 23
able year beginning in the same calendar year as 24
such taxable year. 25
170
‘‘(2) NONRESIDENT ALIENS.—Subsection (a) 1
shall not apply to any individual who is a non- 2
resident alien. 3

NOTE this is NOT about illegal aliens, it's about non-resident aliens. They are excluded from coverage but they may pay taxes, so page 170 exempts them from paying for something they CAN'T GET, IE: taxing them for coverage.
So your claim "Any NON-RESIDENT alien is exempt from individual taxes (Americans will pay for them)." is completely false.

BTW, here is the definition of a non-resident alien: "Resident aliens are taxed on all earned income as if they were U.S. citizens, but a non-resident alien is not taxed in the same way. For a non-resident alien, only income that is generated from U.S. sources, excluding certain investments such as stocks, is subject to taxation. For example, if you live in England and own a company that operates in the U.S., but you have not been to the U.S. for five years and don't have a green card (a non-resident alien), the income generated by the business will be subject to U.S. tax. Dividends are taxed at 30% for every non-resident alien, while capital gains are not subject to U.S. tax."

You can see why they wouldn't be able to get coverage under the public option or be subject to the taxes for non-covered residents, hence the exception in the tax code.

I will say, I understand why politicians don't want to debate this stuff with laymen in town meetings and it explains why they haven't read all of it, they have lawyers working for them to explain it. It's hard enough to read through hundreds of pages if you know what you're looking at, but the average citizen will try to read this and it may as well be Greek. Then they THINK they know what they see, but you have to jump around several hundred more pages to find where sub-section (a) is and what it means, what it applies to, and why. The average citizen needs a book of Hoyle to play old maid. For this it requires a lawyer, a judge, a guide dog and with some luck an IQ over 150. Certainly not the average person.

I've had to do this for relatively simple sets of bylaws in the past and it took several months to satisfy everyone (about 500 people) on what they actually said (and I had a lawyer helping me). This could take years and everyone would still not understand unless they had a law degree. That's why the opponents want to delay it, because there is no way average Joe will come close to understanding it completely and it's easy to cast doubt on something the average Joe can't understand or keep track of in a few pages. And you can guess who wrote most of it.....the same lawyers that wrote Dick Cheney's energy policy, only they work for Blue Cross and United Healthcare now!

barry- I realize you're only quoting from a service and may not have the answers, but whenever I read 'blurbs' like that one, I like to try to fill in the holes.

(a) How many times has the NDQ given an RSI reading of 75 or above? What percentage of the time has the NDQ not corrected 'soon after?'
(b) What parameters did Degraaf use to calculate the RSI, and what time frame is he using for the numbers quoted?
(c) How does he define 'soon after?'
(d) Are the RSI numbers quoted 'peak' figures? If not, how much higher did the RSI readings rise before the NDQ corrected? Alternatively, of the traders who began shorting after his 'signals' triggered, how much pain did they endure on average before things went their way?

I have to agree with davefairtex- it's never that easy.

Is that not what it comes down to?

Then, perhaps, the true picture comes into focus.

Rather than identifying myself (positively) as one who is able to tolerate risk, I can recognize myself (negatively) as one who for some stupid reason allows himself to experience a great deal of (mainly) self-inflicted pain. (There is a term for those who enjoy the experience of pain. Is there a better term [other than 'stupid' or synonym thereof] for those who do not enjoy the experience, yet repeatedly go out of their way to subject themselves to it?)

ALOHA!!

Well, America was born from violent protests against the British. Without Vietnam War protesters would LBJ or Nixon changed anything or even given a second thought to the thousands of American youth who were being killed, not to mention the millions of Vietnamese, Laotians, Cambodians and others? My guess is we would still be over in South Vietnam and the US death toll would be in the hundreds of thousands. Then you have to understand who were the violent protesters during the Vietnam era? Mainly it was the next batch of kids that were on their way over to replace the kids coming back in body bags every day. Look who our closest trading partners are now, the same Communists who were supporting North Vietnam not America.

Now we have yet another Vietnam of sorts, only financial and just as immoral. Once again it is the youth of America that will pay the price once the dust has settled.

What we have is "taxation without representation" and in the past Americans got very angry and very violent against such oppression.

While at the same time we have what some call "deflationary debt destruction" we also have "inflationary tax revenue destruction". As I pointed out yesterday it would take a 460% tax increase today to pay for the outlays the US government has run up the past ten months as the Congress papers over the tax revenue gap. I pay taxes but I would take to the streets if taxes went up that much and of course they never will since our Reserve Currency status allows our elected leaders a cowards way out. The elite are banking on the fact that we Americans will have forgotten the misdeeds they perpetrate against us today in the hopes they can live in luxury with their ill gotten spoils in the future.

I foresee more protests and whether they get more violent or not will depend on whether we get more "representation" or not from Congress. During the Vietnam War era "representation" was sorely missing and so it is again today.

Hummmm???

Illini,

"Todays Town Hall Meetings are just a sham/scam compared to what may occur later."

I wonder if it will even take that long. With 14.2% unemployment here now and far greater underemployment, increasing taxes at all levels and promises of more to come, we're seeing a marked increase in crime.

My wife noticed a helicopter circling our neighborhood for about two hours this morning. Local radio didn't mention it, but on the noon news we were informed there was and attempted robbery of the branch bank about 1/2 mile from our house. (I rode my bike through the bank parking lot only a half hour before that.) The newscaster said police were searching the neighborhood for a "suspicious" man. No further details were given.

Later we found out he was black , wore a ski mask, was armed and tried unsuccessfully to carjack someone during his getaway. On the plus side, at least he won't have grounds to sue for racial profiling should he accidentally be caught.

I have always thought PC stuff was a lot of nonsense, but this is just plain stupid. Rather than take a chance at offending someone a crook is given a pass.

If this keeps up we will see vigilante groups being formed like I've read about on our southern border. As you probably know, we are one off the two states without carry permits. (I wonder what the penalty is for a class 3 felony - armed without a permit.)

Telestar 3d. I like the first idea with a pay your own 2500 with a catastrophic health plan.Good start. Then the article loses all credibility with the wait in line in Canada and Britan Bulls---. Who in America can walk in and get immediate health care. Try to get a dermatology appointment. Try seeing an orthopedic when you have a broken bone. This argument is so lame and gets repeated at nausum it just makes me lose my cool. People who have traveled the world know this is B.S.
I have sought health care in other countries and have never waited as long as the US. Never.Then you can

Here you go 2nd. This is daily/12 mos. you can see it doesn't take long to correct from the peaks. Notice how extreme the RSI is right now.....

I know exactly of which you speak. The BoA branch 2 miles from my house was held up by two guys with handguns on Thursday 3pm. They got away.

Yesterday around 11pm a Little Caesar's pizza place was held up by 1 guy with a handgun. That's about 1 mile W of the BoA branch.

The tellers at the Kroger on Friday were talking nervously about the BoA job.

I'm probably going to start carrying the .357 in the car again.

Atlanta had a city councilmember carjacked and another had her house broken into while she was upstairs. Of course this means that now it is serious.

The funny part is listening to the police PR people say: "According to the FBI, violent crime is down 10%". What they don't say is that the UCR is built on self-reported numbers and the ATL PD has a poor record of reporting all the crime.

If we really have a big crash, it's going to be bad. Unlike the 1930s, people today don't know how to garden or cook, which would be essential survival skills.

Are you saying the RSI is now 88? And you're 'projecting' a fall to (RSI) 49?

2nd - "And you're 'projecting' a fall to (RSI) 49?"

Best I can tell the RSI is currently @49.

It appears gold is gaining and the $USD is softer, so does this indicate the market will rally, or is gold performing the last dance? I'm getting mixed signals.

Sorry 2nd, it WAS extreme (88) and CP is right it's now 49 and judging from past performances, is heading lower and we've been right for a little bit as has Bill and others. It just takes time to show up on the charts.

You can see in the last year when it got over 70 it wasn't long before it fell and went to 30 or below.

You can see on any of Bulkowski's pages his call for the nazquack is 1900 by 9/1.

I tell you, I have a weird feeling about the 9/11 anniversary....I don't know why.

Yes, it hit the peak of 88 on 7/23, the naz peaked at 2015 on 8/04.
I'm using a Scottrade Elite daily 1mo chart of the $comp. To be precise a 88.313 RSI-7 on the 23rd with a tall green candle with a high of 1979.34 that day. On the 28th I show a 84.97 RSI-7 and an intraday high of 1978.43.

I'm on my laptop now so can't print the chart right this second, but we're close enough for horse shoes.

Thanks Bill, it's a mouth-full and gives me a substance to chew on meanwhile. Got my eyes peeled. ;)

There, back in the office....here you go.

So the players RSI quotient was peeking at the time of the call, it hadn't yet turned down and so the call was premature?

Craig- July 15 seems to be a pivotal date. If I had been betting on the H&S, then a spike up that 'negated' the pattern along with a jump in the RSI above 70, should have caused me to take the bet off.

(Easier said than done, of course. It would probably have taken more than a day to convince me the pattern was 'void,' and greed may in fact have led me to add to existing shorts. Once in place, it wouldn't take much to extend the rationalization day after day until it was way too late.)

Hooray for the press, I'm shocked such a story wasn't buried deep under London. I've heard of reporters being fired for bringing similar stories to light.

I heard a rumor that China has been pressuring the Treasury for TIPS issuance. A couple months ago I noted an advisory committee comment that TIPS issuance were of low priority.

Strange stuff.... as if someone's trying to keep the deflation/inflation argument from ever being resolved.

The SMN is suppose to match twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Basic Materials index. DJBMI was down 1.1% SMN should of been up 2.2% Yet it failed to even match a 1 to 1 relationship with the index with an increase of a crummy .38%. Yesterday was even worse missing its goal by 3 % points. Which is significant since it missed 75% of its designed move.So in essence the SMN is a 1/2X ETF not a 2x ETF the last two days. Is this some fuzzy math does it only match 2x of the index going down not up.
Bob

I'm not trying to throw water on any direct knowledge those amongst us have, but unproven and unsubstantiated noise sometimes comes across as excessive and hyperventalory. To not trade a market is a business decision based upon your own level of experience and knowledge, and I can say for one that I feel challenged just trying to trade a market situated in the country I grew up in and understand the nuances of the customs.

Observing Japanese charts I think I can identify a completely different mindset, one that I'm pretty certain represents a different kind of challenge and perhaps approach. One very strong impression I have of Japanese from my direct experience is they all tend to think alike in many ways, but knowing this and even understanding some of the nuances isn't enough to lure me into discovering more about the subject at this period in time.

Bob - I think we've noted similar action in the ultras before and I can identify with your observations. Usually though the characteristics seem to suffer from some kind of hysteresis effect and eventually (within a day or two) self corrects. If the market is going your way for a long enough period, it seems (from my observations) that the ETF actually "lurches" when the correction takes place.

This effect, in addition to other potentially unknown leverage effects are why I don't make much attempt to perform TA on the ETF directly, I use the underlying index whenever possible.

In my mind's eye, the ETF manager is burning the midnight oil shuffling around his swaps as we speak in order to implement compensatory effort. Contracts rolling over to the next month and associated issues, to answer the questions, you've got to go through the prospectus with a fine-toothed comb and identify what could be numerous causes and potential pitfalls, etc.

I'm pretty sure you know all of this stuff anyway...

Sorry baz22- I was close, but not good enough. Still damn impressed, my friend.

David:> Notice how the dip-buying turned out today: a sell-off right into the close

not the case with my preferred short - F.

Rose back above the closing price of previous session and bounced off it several times, edging up at closing in what appeared to be sneaky accumulation mode.

I backed off. Wait and see.

USD stronger now, Yen up more, gold is showing weakness but was stronger earlier. London will be opening soon.

CP,

"Strange stuff.... as if someone's trying to keep the deflation/inflation argument from ever being resolved."

Have you ever read Robert Blumen's, "Unconventional Measures: Bernankeism and the Destruction of the Dollar"?
www.lewrockwell.com/blumen/blumen10.html

It may or may not work out quite the way he envisions it, but either way I don't think we will like it.

I believe a debt restructuring.
Bob