Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Thursday, Aug. 27, 2009

Taleb has a go at portfolio managers in not being able to weigh all risks because their model discounts black swan events like 1987 - no better than astrology he reckons. I don't know if that is real world - did all funds in 2008 crash? I know one or two fund managers were expecting the unexpected.

I've heard notions of systems theory and accept Taleb's argument (I have no knowledge to argue against it) that modern financials systems are increasingly susceptible to bad black swan events.

I appreciate more now the core concept in Army operations planning even at the junior team level I was party to. KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) makes even more sense with limited understanding of other systems like finance and economics. Any of you computer geeks here learn that sort of stuff in IT?

I also begin to appreciate Vad's preferences for working with the basics in trading - volume and price movement. Less complexity means less susceptibility to failure.

I also understand the mentality of the daytrader. What better way to avoid risk than to place capital at risk for the minimum time necessary. That or have a sound understanding of risk hedging like Bill.

Finding myself preferring Vad's game.

Grym posted-"True, but from what I remember my family talking about years after the depression was over — people clung to every dollar."

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So what you are saying is that a 1930s dollar is the same as a 2009 dollar right? In other words its always a "safe haven" under any conditions at any time in history.

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No — What I'm saying is people are likely to be the same.

Life is about more than numbers, it's about people.

.1950 premarket, so past resistance of late July. Next resistance target located at .23 + change from June high.

I have no previous experience in determining profit targets. Is this realistic?

TIA

Dropped a little now. Expecting a dip during first quarter hour and then a rebound. Need to hold above .190

A twit from JL's gang:

"Good morning, Twitter-land. $SPNG will once again be the play of the day. Have a pretty large stake, planning exits in x-stages in the 20s"

Les- I noticed the ask @ 4 am (PST) was 39.60, and thought to myself, "I should buy it here." I didn't, but I knew it was going higher. No guts.

didn't think to quip JL's trade to everyone. I know that if he holds overnight, he's keen as mustard. Will try to be more communicative in future.

"I'm guessing nobody here believes that AIG will eventually pay the government back its $187 billion"

It's irrelevant... this whole move is pure and simple battle between bulls and bears, and bulls win. They pound losing side as much as they can, squeezing the blood out of them till last drop.

If you ever wanted to see the clearest example of pure trading move based on buys and sells disbalance and battle of two sides with no slightest regard to anything else (fundamentals, economy etc) - this is it. IMO.

First tranche is up on the selling block at .20, 2nd at .21, 3rd at .22. I avoid previous resistance levels selling like so.

ALOHA !!

"No — What I'm saying is people are likely to be the same.
Life is about more than numbers, it's about people."

I agree people are the same in terms of their basic needs. Not much different to cave man days, but what has changed significantly since the 1930s and since cave man days is the tools that "people" use to create wealth and to provide for their basic needs. Money is a tool and money as we know it today can become just as useless as a buggy whip. The money we use today has a very long history of being worthless. We have had a 96% loss of purchasing power since 1913, which is about 1% per year so in those terms in 1930 the loss of purchasing power was only 17%. In 1930 our creditors we have now did not exist because we were not a Debtor nation in 1930. The value of our money is no longer dependent on what Americans believe its value should be. We turned that aspect of valuation over to our creditors a long time ago. Nothing is the same as 1930 except the basic needs of people, money though is very different. That was my point. I thank you for that contrarian indicator though ... As goes the masses so goes the poverty!

IT ALL WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN'T!!

Ouch, not again!

ALOHA !!

WOW ... look everything is RED ... gold, silver, USD, Dow, Nasdaq, oil TSX, HUI! Hummmm, only the AUD and JPY are green!

"HA!!! Well divide that by 20 and the real share price is still $2. "

Yep, I'd rather be trading BA today.

Seems like every time the RSI's hit 80 we get a minor pullback that gets bought up. Statistically speaking, it's impossible to expect a long string up back to back up days... gotta let the consumer get with the program.

Wonder what color Ferrari sharkie's going to trade his Corolla for (I'll bet he donates the Toyota to charity)?

Do Ferrari's come in BR green?

There you go again....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LCsiWL6gn0

...

Ah say, ah say son...don't we all live in a box!
http://tinyurl.com/mswvm4

I'm quite certain the PO comment was an attempted joke, I appreciate kaimu's generous input here as much/more as anybody's.

G’Day Bill,

I have been real busy working and although I have read your Daily Report every day for the last 4 years, I have not had time to tune in to the commentary for while. Yesterday I read a post from Luggie on Lithium that has compelled me to post ASAP.

Quite often I get asked my opinion about the flavour of the month exotic metal or rare earth. Inevitably my advice is to stay well clear. While I concede that if you are very early in these fads, you can make a lot of money, it is just too risky and 99% of investors should grab hold of their wallet and walk away. Usually by the time you hear about it, it is too late.

A while back I was working a remote mine site in the middle of outback Australia. There was a rare earth deposit very close by and I had a lot of dealing with these guys where they were wanting to gain access to our diesel generated power, bore water, roads and camp facilities. These were smart and very likeable guys. I discovered that this project had a history where rare earth prices skyrocketed and the project ramped up to feasibility and almost commenced development before the price crashed and the project was shelved. Then the next cycle it all ramped up again while I was working close by. The project ramped up another feasibility, got very close to development and then rare earth prices slumped again and the project was shelved again.

Now it’s 2009 and I see that the media is talking about a shortage of rare earths and the project is being hyped up again for at least the 3rd time that I know of……………

It is well reported in the media that China control the rare earths market and China gets the blame for manipulating the market to depress prices and push competitors out of the market.

I have noticed that there has been quite a noticeable amount of Chinese investment in the better rare earth and exotic metal projects.

Yesterday I read an article that stated that 95% of the rare earths market is controlled by Chinese interests.

I was also reminded of an Australian article I read last week that I totally agree with, so I have pasted it below. This article was written in response to a lot of hype in the media regarding Rare Earths, Exotic Metals and Lithium in particular. Anyone considering investing in these markets should take heed of this article.

Most of the hyped rare earth and exotic metals projects currently in the media are going to fail and take your money with them. Unless you have a crystal ball or BOS stay well clear.

Cheers
Chris

Dryblower explores the world of light metals, electric cars and metal bubbles

Monday, 17 August 2009
LEIGH Clifford, a Rio Tinto hero long before Stern Hu snatched that claim to fame, once famously said he wasn’t interested in “mining the periodic table”. Dryblowersuspects that might be one reason why Rio Tinto’s name is not associated with the latest speculative boom to grip stock markets around the world – lithium.
Another reason is that lithium might easily turn out to be a member of a passing parade of metals that have their 15 minutes of glory, before exiting stage right never to be heard of again.

Whatever the reason, there is no doubt some of Dryblower’s best friends have shown classic signs of irrational exuberance about an ultra-light metal which might have a bright future in the electric car industry.

The theory, which has seen shares in stocks with a lithium link double and triple over the past few months, is that cars such as the Chevrolet Volt and the Nissan Leaf, will trigger a massive increase in the demand for lithium-ion batteries.

Right now, and time is important for red-hot lithium stocks, it appears that lithium-ion is the battery of choice for car makers because it is light and stores a lot of electricity.

The second belief driving the lithium boom is that the world doesn’t have much of the stuff and a shortage of supply will push the price through the roof.

Dear, oh dear! Where were these children trading in lithium shares when we had a gallium boom because it was the metal for computer chips, hafnium for nuclear fuel rods, or scandium for aluminium alloys and golf clubs?

Dryblower has been around long enough to remember each of these booms, plus a few more such as scheelite in the 1950s, and vanadium (every 10 years).

The point about this trip down memory lane is not merely to demonstrate that there are a lot of elements on the periodic table, but that every one of them has a use somewhere, sometime.

The real issue is that very few, apart from the commonly traded metals such as copper, nickel and zinc, have a depth of market sufficient to justify a mine development, or that there is actually a shortage of supply (or booming demand) to ensure high prices for the life of a mine.

Gallium is a Dryblower favourite. Back in the 1980s (or perhaps it was the 70s), the big French chemical company, Rhone Poulenc, bowled into Australia and announced a joint venture with Alcoa to extract the gallium from the liquor circuit streaming through the Pinjarra alumina refinery.

Wow! What a blooper. The Frogs spent $50 million on their gallium plant. Operated it for a few months, and then closed it.

Why? Because the world market for gallium arsenide dried up, and better (and cheaper) metals came along for computer chips.

This is the big issue confronting lithium today. No one, not even Dryblower can say that lithium does not have a future as a metal for the electronics industry, or for the potential boom in electric cars.

But, there are issues to consider, and they include: How much lithium does the world want? How much is currently produced, where and by whom? What is the world’s recoverable lithium resource?

The last time these questions were asked they applied to magnesium, which was also a metal set to revolutionise the world’s vehicle industry – but didn’t.

Hundreds of millions of dollars was tipped into magnesium production, until investors woke to the fact that the world used about two ship loads a year, and car makers wouldn’t switch until supply increased, and miners wouldn’t boost output until demand increased.

If Joseph Heller hadn’t written Catch 22 about the logic (or lack of it) about the bureaucratic world as seen in the US Air Force then the magnesium conundrum would make a perfect novel about lunacy.

Is lithium going to be a repeat? Well, the numbers aren’t too encouraging. According to local lithium leaders such as Galaxy Resources, the world currently uses 110,000 tonnes of lithium a year, likely to rise to 300,000t in 10 years.

Salar de Atacama, a single salt flat in Chile, is estimated to contain a resource of between 7.5 million and 35.7 million tonnes of lithium.

Described as “the Saudi Arabia of lithium”, that lower number of 7.5Mt represents 68 years of supply at today’s rate of consumption, and 25 years at the forecast rate of demand in 10 years time.

At the upper resource estimate Salar de Atacama contains 324 years of current demand and 119 years of forecast demand in 10 years.

Dryblower suspects the point is made because Salar de Atacama is just one source of supply, production can be easily increased, and alternative sources developed.

Perhaps Galaxy, with a project located in politically stable Australia, will be one of the new suppliers – this is why its share price has risen by 400% over the past year to a 12-month high of $A1.50 last week – and perhaps it will not.

Everything comes back to the magnesium issues of two shiploads a year, abundant potential sources of supply, and no guarantee that lithium-ion will win the future battle of the batteries, just as gallium arsenide didn’t win the computer chip challenge of the 1980s, leaving Rhone Poulenc with a $50 million empty shed alongside Alcoa’s Pinjarra alumina refinery.

So TBT this morning has done very nicely, given SPX is down -9 points.
Perhaps there is nervousness ahead of the 7 year auction today at 100 ET?

Thanks Chris.

Missed the first train on SPNG. Made it up to .1930.

pulling back now. Looking to take next ride, or might do lunch and take the afternoon train if permitted.

Well said Craig.

I couldn't leave SPNG alone to do its thing. Guess I should go into the day's trading with an idea of support levels myself so as not to get spooked. I've been shaken out and SPNG has left the station. The lessons we learn.

taking a ride on freddie

"FSA backs global tax on transactions

By George Parker in London

Published: August 27 2009 00:01 | Last updated: August 27 2009 00:01

The head of Britain’s top banking watchdog supports the idea of new global taxes on financial transactions, warning that a “swollen” financial sector paying excessive salaries has grown too big for society."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/08943b5a-926a-11de-b63b-...
______________________________________

All politicians know how to accomplish is impose taxes, and they're not even good at doing that because they always include loop holes for the big boyz and build the fence too high for granny.

The more things CHANGE...

Very interesting Kaimu. I've opted the in-your-face green solution by riding a kid's scooter in the village. Screw everyone around here with their 2 car families. The village becomes crapola at 7am, school start and finish and 6pm.
Like yourself - keep it local.

ALOHA !!

"The head of Britain’s top banking watchdog supports the idea of new global taxes on financial transactions ..."

If you study the Weimar Republic as a case study of what happens when money becomes more and more worthless then the path we are on follows exactly the same path in that the German stock market and quality German stock certificates became more valuable than the Mark. The stock market was the only place left to leverage at a rate that could keep up with the currency debasement. It was the money spigot and if you wanted to survive then you needed to be as close to the spigot as possible. Do you get why we're all here in the markets yet? Are we not leveraging our lifestyle because it no longer pays to work 9-5 and save for 30 years for retirement? Is not money traded in the form of AIG velocity? Whats the average AIG volume now 22mil shares per day? That's some big velocity! Just as it was in the 1920s JP Morgan had a monopoly on critical market information. Guess who has the MONEY MONOPOLY today?

These are red flags to me about a monetary crisis and not much else. The global governments are not fools. Traders in Weimar Germany were taxed also. Anyone squeezing the least bit of profit was a scoundrel and the biggest scoundrels were the gold "hoarders", as FDR called them. So much for Liberty and Freedom ...

When government is BIG you always get punished for your prudence.

Okay ...

Chris!

Good to see you man (not being Aussie I am not sure I am allowed to say mate). Great write up.

G'Day Mate,

To elaborate, If anyone is going to gamble in this area, they need to be very early. Choose the better existing producers or the developers that are closest to production.

As an example, take a look at Uranium. I have spoken to a number of very well respected geological experts who say that Uranium is not a scarce resource and is actually quite abundant. The price has been very low for many years and there has been very little exploration. Then the price took off, Uranium become flavour of the month and and Uranium exploration companies sprung up everywhere. A lot of them did very well for quite a while because they went into areas of knowm Uranium mineralisation and completed successful drilling programs based on high Uranium prices. But now the race is on to develop projects before their competitors and the price recedes. When the price does recede, only the quickest that get a chance to pay off their capital early and the lowest cost producers will survive.

Then the speculators leave the sector and start all over again and try their luck at the latest flavour of the month. Exploration in Uranium will decline and the cycle will start all over again.

When I left Australia to work in Canada in 2005, BHP and Rio Tinto were the only Iron Ore miners I was familiar with. Then I returned in 2008 and I could not believe it. It seemed as though every second resource company was either dedicated to iron ore or had an iron ore exploration programme. This phase too shall pass with only a handful of survivors, with those survivors mopping up all the half decent projects.

Cheers
Chris

Jock, the Kennedy family gave three sons to the service of our country. For that alone they are due our respect and gratitude. Senator Edward Kennedy helped level and build many a playing field in this country. I doubt I would be writing to you here had he not championed equal opportunity. Perhaps his tireless work to sponsor social equality will let him rest in peace.

Hi All - Well if lithium is just a flash in the bucket so be it, but I like the gains so far. Here is another for consideration. With the Boeings' of the world showing a little life for a change I like RTI and have re-entered due to the increasing volume after taking nice gains on this one back in 8/07. Happy Trading

...

G'Day Vad,

When speaking Aussie, everyone is mate. That is just because we can't remember anyone's name. It's just easier to call everyone mate. We are very laid back and shorten most words creating our unique slang.

When I first moved to Canada, nobody could understand my Aussie slang and I found employees carrying around print-outs of Aussie slang dictionaries that they downloaded from the internet so they could translate what I was saying.

nice job team...still long freddie

ALOHA !!

Les, all I can say about US interest rates is that the higher they are the more risk is perceived by lenders, so that in itself is a statement regarding Swiss rates.

Don't listen to me, but man, I would not want to be borrowing 460,000 of anything ... not even biscuits!

Haha. Kaimu, I use a scooter without an engine. Ain't no adult riding one of these around.

http://www.nextag.com/Razor-A-Scooter-Red-59536843...

(example only)

Post, train, supermarket, bakery, cheese/milk shop, school - all 100 metres away. The quaint village of "old Europe" does have its strengths in sustaining strong communities.

Wow, now that's some rally!

I know anything without risk is completely abandoned right now, but I would have to imagine that at some point PG will come back around. I've been watching this one like a hawk and have been thinking about buy $45 Jan 2011 LEAPs, which I think should do quite well...

Kaimu,

I can't disagree with your observations here, but see a more dire situation which even gold will not fix.

"The money we use today has a very long history of being worthless. We have had a 96% loss of purchasing power since 1913,"

"In 1930 our creditors we have now did not exist because we were not a Debtor nation in 1930. The value of our money is no longer dependent on what Americans believe its value should be."

As you point out the dollar has been losing since long before any of us was born. During my lifetime I am aware of the inflationary cost to it.

Yes we are now a debtor nation. We are in the exact opposite conditions we had post WWII. We were then the only manufacturer, had the only facilities not destroyed and shoved the dollar in the faces of the rest of the world saying, "It's our dollar, but it's your problem."

The dollar may only be important here. However, all the people I deal with financially are in the U.S. All they know is the dollar. Our creditors are in foreign countries.

During forty years in business I soon found out how difficult it was to collect a bill from only one state away. I never did any work out of state after that other than cash and never with any level of government — only with people and companies I knew.

The Chinese should have asked themselves, "How will we collect on all this debt we are accumulating?"

If things are so bad the USD is not legal tender internationally, people here will only have dollars (those worthless pieces of paper) and China will play hell trying to collect from a bankrupt country. I expect this will end in a war.

Countries are made up of a collection of individuals. When people can't buy food — they take it!

If the dollar is no longer accepted here we will probably see anarchy. Crime in my city is inversely following the joblessness in direst relation to the unsellable houses.

When it "IT DOESN'T!"... people do what will.

Scared out of 2/3 small pos in SPNG this am near low of the day but with profit. Holding ABK but trying my hand at stop limit sell order to max profit.
Yesterday as I was unable to waste time in front of computer put stops in all positions except SRS. Last night read comments of Vads system and am happy to be using a system.
Stop limit hit on 1/10 position on ABK as I type. Raised stop on balance

Luggie,

NAK is always on my watch list, mostly because I made a lot on it about 5 years ago or so. I have actually been thinking about buying some lately in anticipation of a move higher in gold. They have some solid backers on their Pebble project. What is your thinking on it?

RE:>Scared out of 2/3 small pos in SPNG this am near low of the day but with profit

ditto Photogray. Letting the winners run is a problem I have. I saw support at .182 this morning and should have let it alone, but sold it on second dip.

Back in at .1934. stock is trending between .1925 and .1935, so I know it has baseline support again, but I'm not profiting from the big moves.

I remember my first article I read from John Lee. He took handcuffs to a friend who had the inclination to overtrade his stocks, even when his setup and entry was solid.

Gonna do something I haven't done for a while. Give my neighbour a ring and go and have a drink and leave SPNG alone.

Les - I'm not sure what is more harmful...having a drink at this hour or staying glued to your screen.

I know what's more pleasurable. And what do you mean, at this hour, it's already midday your time. Haven't you Americans heard of 'l'aperitif'?

what about a level 2 indicator please? That free indicator I have won't read SPNG's book for me. It's infernal trading with no information.

Any suggestions for a basic (for a beginner) functional level 2 indicator?

Les, friends don't let friends drink and drive (the family jewels, I mean portfolio)around :)

kaimu - "the path we are on follows exactly the same path in that the German stock market and quality German stock certificates became more valuable than the Mark."

Yes, this is precisely why I always believed gold should be a worthy place to store wealth, but stocks have been outperforming the old master of late.

Stock prices represent creation of wealth minus decay of monetary value whereas gold prices only represent monetary decay.

We'll see how it goes, I do still have a good bit of gold...

Vad said - "I don't believe this is possible."

I know, we talked about this before, before I knew what I was doing.

I still maintain that if I worked for Morgan Stanley (let's say), I could use our customer's order flow to estimate what the rest of the market is doing, just like Gallup uses polls of a "representative sample" of voters determine how a presidential election is likely to turn out. Same idea, just in realtime. You would have to be careful to profile customers to get that good representative sample, and it would probably work best with heavily traded stocks. You need the law of big numbers for this to work.

With trial and error, you could figure out the likely "error" rate of such a system. The bigger the customer list, the better the system will perform.

I'm convinced such a system could be built, and the output would be realtime displays to the prop desk traders showing "the market" for a particular stock, including stops in some nice GUI-based display. Second gen would include volume estimations necessary to blow through resistance, and profit estimates based on the state of the world as estimated by the system (based on past experience).

Wild cards would be big hedge funds, so the system would not be perfect. But I bet it would work well enough to turn regular traders into Vad the Trading Machine.

If I had the order flow I could write the system in a year or two. Another year to refine it, and then we roll it out to the prop desk and train the traders, and pretty soon we're making good money and we all have nice bonuses.

I wish I still had my contacts at Morgan Stanley. I'm curious to see if they've written such a system. Certainly if I were working there, I'd give it a shot.

Hi Teamon - Doesn't seem to be in play right now - perhaps due to Rio Tinto holding ~20% and Mitsubishi another 10% coupled with lower inflation expectations. With Anglo funding the next ~$1.4 billion in project development costs (total to be $3 billion +)it should be a good one when the time comes for the trading types. The politics shrouded in the guise of enviormentalism under the new regime is the wild card. I own it now again after taking gains in the past too, but we are talking production out ~ 5-7 years in the best case. Note: grades are quite good for both the underground & open pit aspects of the project. Happy Trading

I'm jumping on board the very next train when conductor Vad calls all-aboard.

sharkie's ABK call ain't nothin' to sneeze at either, if I may point out...

Here's time and sales.

Can I train myself to work off this?

ah no, just looked at your message again. Still looking.

It is looking stronger as time goes on.

I personally don't trust GDP figures anymore. Someone here or on another site mention to look at state tax revenue as a key indicator since 70% of our GDP is consumption, specifically sales tax. I will start tracking my home state IL and Cook & surrounding counties. Below if the direct link to IL data. 2009 Q2 has not been posted yet. I'd also be interested in finding a similar site for NY and CA.

http://tinyurl.com/mzu2nc

C, AIG, JPM, GS, FRE, FNM.

a lot of vol heavily weighted their way. I would call that volume the music powering this game of musical chairs. the record is almost at an end.

the past few weeks can also be called big bull trap as well, if you want to look at the flip side argument of a bear trap.

all the good news is out, even manipulated to be shinier than it really is.

volume is contracting across the board.

politicians have more pull for radical changes when there is panic. not when everyone is happy go lucky.

"Dear, oh dear! Where were these children trading in lithium shares when we had a gallium boom because it was the metal for computer chips"

Exactly - When it comes to trains, planes, automobiles and semiconductors, speed costs money; how fast do you want/need to go?

Ruthenium might be another up and coming semi-technology but the quantity will be minuscule. Perhaps we'll be around to witness an entire new generation of memory storage based upon the chemical reactions as opposed to the physical properties of various elements and compounds.

the past few weeks can also be called big bull trap as well, if you want to look at the flip side argument of a bear trap.

You nailed it. Topping action of a blow-off kind is a bears capitulation and bulls euphoria. Bears take their losses and the most unfortunate ones reverse their position; elated bulls throw caution out of the window... and that marks the end of a rally.

Is this what I should be looking at?

I had to subscribe to Arcabook or something like that for the info.

Ok I get it now. Very little volume, that's why I thought it wasn't working.

I pulled up AIG and its gone ballistic. Now it's too fast! Ok, I have level 2 quotes.

No, you are entirely correct, it would not be realtime access to all trades everywhere. It would be just an educated guess based on the fragment of data we had extrapolated to the universe of traders out there. But I suspect it would be quite accurate in most cases, and the more traders you had, the more accurate it would be.

I don't know everything that goes into what you do. I'm not sure how much of what you do can benefit from seeing extrapolated realtime data from other traders. You say it's a small part, since you're the man here, I have to defer to you.

All I do know is, I could provide it - or something very like it, that worked most of the time, with a few years of work.

There goes AIG. Nice call on the top. :)

ENRON-style off-balance sheet accounting becomes the celebrated norm for the Fed and the fractional reserve banking system.

Worse yet, the Fed implores the courts not to enforce their loan data. Opacity thy name is central banking.

Otis,

Don't forget to stock up on beer/wine/liquor before the new Illinois tax increase hits on Sept 1.

noticed that on google finance the "Inst. own" for C drops form 20+% to 18% now...
how could that be?

ABK

Ok i got a nice piece of that bought 44 sold 60

I read a book recently, Lords of Finance
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/books/review/Noc...

also an article from Niall Ferguson
http://www.newsweek.com/id/212143

looks like you are not the only one who's predicting a war.
a war like the one between British and German?

Is SPY displaying a cup and handle pattern today? If so, would be the first time I've seen one.

Grym - "The Chinese should have asked themselves, "How will we collect on all this debt we are accumulating?"

If things are so bad the USD is not legal tender internationally, people here will only have dollars (those worthless pieces of paper) and China will play hell trying to collect from a bankrupt country. I expect this will end in a war."

A couple of hypothetical thoughts:

1) Maybe China doesn't really care about collecting on their debt(Asian cultures are extremely long term oriented) or maybe they already have?
2) The "war" was won before we ever knew it began, but I'm not so sure who the losers were, if any.

We had no short inventory either... oh well. The day was very good as it was, just no last layer of caviar - settled for a paper trade and educational blabber chitchat instead.

Did something unpleasant happen at 2:00? The buck just dropped through the floor.

Bob - I agree it has gotten a little crazy. People have to be aware that these should only be very small parts of your portfolio.

I try to ignore every post on those type of worthless stocks but even so it takes time to scroll past them. To each his own but I just don't see any point in taking on the high risk of such trades.

Bobbyo, purely chart work for me. As I find other technical opportunities will follow.

Also following JL, who characterises this as a special play.

looking at rally in June and a couple of pennants (pennant within a pennant?) over long-term daily chart, I assume this is what excites the daytrading crowd I observe.

I'm just following along to profit and learn. Not offering ample profits at the moment, but plenty of opportunity to learn.

Let's see what closing looks like.

"I promise once I've made my fortune in SPNG I will trade 'real' stocks."

Sorry... that sounds to me like "I'll search for my lost keys under the streetlight, not where I dropped them" :)

I don't know any friendly Russian insults to throw at you Vad.

Care to share some?

caught a second piece of the move, 1.63 to 1.71

not really worth mentioning I know.

The rally from negative into positive does look strong, and the recent sharp drop in $USD bodes well for equities. So I figured that without my help this rally will never end, and so to make sure that the trend reverses today I sold my shares of FAZ at $23.02 that I purchased at $26.28 during a lateral move (with some boost) from SKF into FAZ.

Besides, XLF broke above the double top it established in the first part of August, and there is really no reason to keep a 3X ultra-short for the sector that keeps exhibiting some strength.

The total hit to my portfolio from this "excursion" into FAZ was about 0.25%. I may venture into FAZ again tomorrow EOD if this rally keeps going until then. Or I may wait until XLF breaks below the early August double top of about $14.3

There are none. It's a jungle world out there - weak insult their enemies, strong just kill them {big grin}.

Meanwhile, AIG granted us two more long plays... day traders heaven

Yes it was... but it's not the point... it's $2.50 for an investor who held it in his portfolio from pre-split times. For a trader who lives day by day it's a $50 stock, and volatile like no other. It's today's range so far about $11 - hardly compares to something that moves 2 cents a day, don't you think? :)

Loanletter -

The right criticizes kennedy-championed-programs like "affirmative action" as "social engineering".

It's really social RE-ENGINEERING, as every society engineers outcomes for groups born into its various social classes.

When only Boston Brahmins attended Harvard and its Law School, that was social engineering as well!

Now that Barack or Michelle Obama have a shot, I think the US is a better society.

Now if we can only de-throne the banksters of HB&B !

Vad,
I know it is all about time frames. I will download todays AIG chart as a reference to illistrate the so called MOMO trade. I assume I can guesstimate your entries and exits from your sites logs. I am sure it will be educational. Once I can free myself from that pesky job and family obligations I will be right behind Les who will be right behind you and we will trip the lights fantastic in Day Traders Paradise.
Bob

Faz 22.90, TZA 13.80 ERY 16.41

Did you all notice how nimbly I side stepped those pesky profits at the open? Just doing it the hard way.

Yeah, and you need to keep very specific proportions, with delivery vehicle being hypodermic needle...

Let's at least insert smiles, there are quite a few people read this and that's how myths are being born...

interesting flop in the dollar today, though its creeping back up.

i view this as a bottoming process in the dollar.

too much bearishness and repetitive nonsense about failed auctions and excessive US debt. the chinese are spending their way out of this just as everyone else is. we might read only about what the US is doing and sing the praises of sound fiscal discipline of gold but the USD index is telling us where the money is, and that the game of FOREX is comparative, and the US dollar is simply being debased slower than other currencies and that people are willing to hold US dollars over other types of dollars.

the report about record inflows into GLD was absolutely laughable. who actually believes and/or considers such information. inflows, and other phrases like "institutional buying" and "intrinsic demand" mean nothing. either volume is rising on an uptrend or its not. if it is then thats your only true sign of demand that impacts your investment. stories about jewlery and coin demand simply do not. they are manufactured lies to taunt you into buying gold by people who make money selling you subscriptions.

i am impressed with how gold has held up considering the USD's jumping around. that being said the broad market is also holding up hence there is a match that will quickly deteriorate should the USD continue moving up or stocks start going down.

volume remains fairly weak in the gold shares, so im still waiting before jumping back in. either we move up here on volume or we plunge down, i think either situation will be quick and deadly if you are positioned the wrong way.

gold and gold stocks will not, i repeat, they will not rally in the face of a serious market decline. for those cheering the crumbling of world markets and are long gold will suffer the same way they did last year. get your ducks in a row before buying in, do it for the right reasons.

Bill -

The clunkers are destroyed with a destructive acidic compound put into the engine block under the program and then presumably sent off to the crusher.

How about the double taxation (income and sales) on the "Cash" that the consumer never knew about? The IRS allowed dealerships to deduct the trade-in value in a standard transaction but not in the cash-for-clunkers program. Gotcha! Cash-for-clunkers will just make the automotive sales crash harder next year while raising more debt. Beyond silly.

The turbocharged sub-2.0 liter diesel getting 50+ mpg has been the solution to $7.00 gas/diesel in Europe for decades. Ford makes an outstanding little diesel as do most other manufacturers. Solution is to drill for more oil in the U.S. and raise fuel prices at the pump for non-commercial light vehicles while kicking off a coal-to-liquid industry as well by allowing U.S. Armed Forces to sign long-term supply contracts. Someday, all this will not be an option but a necessity, IMO.

Cheers.

(insert smiley here)

Bill,

The clunkers are required to be disabled on site. From what I have read the dealer must pour in a chemical that completely renders the engine inoperable and the car must be completely scrapped - no sold parts or resold clunkers.

The one thing that irks me the most about this program is how hastily organized the whole thing was carried out. It was obvious that there was no relevant demand study used as initial demand for the program tore through the allocated funds with dealers staying open until crazy hours to fit in the bum rush of buyers before the clock struck 12.

Wouldn't we have all been better of if the government had offered a somewhat more modest incentive that could last 1-2 years and lead to longer-term employment (dealerships may need an extra person or two for a couple years rather than 10 extra employees until the end of the month) (Car manufacturers able to gradually clear inventory and restart manufacturing lines).

Unfortunately the U.S. government is still looking for short-term fixes to long-term problems. Not to mention that this program doesn't provide any incentive for people who don't have cars in the first place.

It's just amazing to me that our Congress can pass such legislation without a basic cost/benefit analysis for everyone to see and measure progress against. Then again, whats new?

I wonder what the cash for clunkers program will do to steel prices?
More deflation?

"A Dutch hydro engineer has come up with a "water footprint." At a conference in Sweden, he and other participants discussed water waste, supermarkets filled with fruits and vegetables produced in some of the world's most arid regions and ways we can stop wasting our most precious resource."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,6...

China Mobile bounced off its trendline today at 50.50. Daily RSI now rising ever so gently. I'm sure I got in too early, but I figure, I need some longs to balance out those shorts of mine, so why not pick up some stuff that's a little bit oversold. Plus, the stop is pretty close by.

While are attention was on AIG. OSK made a 25% gain also. In addition it had a cup and handle MOMO breakout in the first hour. Anyone catch it.
Bob

We need more new homes? Sure, sounds like a worthy priority!

That's just it, a hydro engineer who isn't an agricultural expert.... Fruits and vegetables need fewer petrochemical pesticides and fungicides when grown in an arid climate.

So I've lately been looking into paired trades, because I get this sense watching the daily movement that relationships between the different commodities (for instance) changes from time to time. My latest paired trade concept is gold/oil.

Specifically, this chart here - "barrels per ounce". This is a weekly chart, and its bottoming out here at 13. Weekly MACD looks to be rolling up slowly, and there is a nice divergence in the RSI-7.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$WTIC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p61036421965&a=176589757

Conceptually, the thought behind this trade (long gold, short oil) is, this is a trade based on reflation without an economic recovery. You're betting on a double dip recession, while hedging yourself just in case the buck tanks hard, which presumably will bring gold up along with oil.

In a reflation, gold & oil will presumably rise together. If the economy tanks, gold will still fall (won't it dr.cosa?) but oil will fall even faster. Oil will only rise faster than gold in a real recovery.

The program, as many of this ilk are, was originally designed as a welfare mechanism to help out the less affluent among us.... giving them an opportunity to purchase an new vehicle and ostensibly helping them out with things like, getting to work and saving on repairs and fuel. It was not originally intended as a "green" tool, although this quickly became one of the primary selling points.

Unfortuneately, it really has not lived up to its original intention. The poor and jobless, the less affluent, do not qualify for the loans necessary to procure the new auto, even with consideration of the clunker discount. Essentially it has become another corporate giveaway... ahem, economic stimulus debacle... ahem, forward-looking debt opportunity for our offspring... whatever you want to call it.

Cars were traded in and a value accreditation was assigned based on things like average mpg or fuel efficiency, and auto age which was intended to take into account the lower emission standards of older cars. The clunkers' engine blocks are destroyed and the rest of the auto is available to part out. I watched a 2001 BMW run for a full 5 minutes before sucummbing to the toxins within its engine block... as an auto aficionado, it made me a little sick to my stomach. A perfectly good and extremely well-engineered machine being completely and inaccessibly put out to pasture to satisfy political edict... now that is what I call social engineering at its most poignant.

Not every car turned in was a BMW of course... but most people turning in clunkers tended to be employed with some savings (ie, they qualified for bank loans).. They certainly not the demographic originally envisioned.. Buyers were taking advantage of the compounded benefits of an auto industry caught with too much stock and promoting very agressive low-interest and high rebate discount programs. Oh yes, an opportunity for some to be sure.... but at what a terrific cost. I find it terribly unfair that I am reguired to subsidize such total unmitigated and utter BS. No, the real winners were corporate cronies of the auto industry who received a landfall gain in being able to offload unwanted, un-needed and rapidly depreciating commoditties.

But now new cars will be built to replace those sold, thus providing jobs to the unemployed ,saves the economy from utter destruction. Uber fantasy IMHO. Oh yeah, and now auto parts companies are clamoring to congress that their CEOs deserve multi million dollar bonuses too so that their "talent" doesnt go elsewheres... this after having laid off multitudes and gutted their employees insurance programs... We need more of this kind of talent?

Ah well, at this rate, there will be some handout that I qualify for eventually. Cash for Cynics Program...WHOHHOOOOO, free money!

"I wonder what the cash for clunkers program will do to steel prices?
More deflation?"

The steel producer equities jumped with new material orders from Detroit. Now the program has ended, I expect they may sag unless the cash for home appliances program provides some support.

Just heard on the way home - from a caller on a radio call in program - that the he found out that the "cash" for the klunker is taxable as ordinary income to the purchaser. FWIW, I have not done the program so this is clearly 2nd hand, but to me, typical of the govt.

ALOHA !!

Jock posted-"Until and unless Uncle Sam declares he's going to be buying X and Y rare earths for a strategic stockpile at set prices over a long period (no sign of this happening) I can't see how projects can develop outside China for most of the rare earths."

One step further ...

The long term ramifications of the "minor metals" that we speak of will come under pressure as the World struggles with globalization in terms of resources. It is very easy to globalize MOUSE CLICKS and Dell Tech Support, but very, very extremely impossible to globalize mining deposits. Imagine a World where the USA had to depend on its own mining resources and not have the ability to seek resources elsewhere in the World. This is what got Japan into WW2. The Von Mises book PLANNED CHAOS shows the relative importance of resources and the connections that cause wars. Essentially it boils down to the "haves" and the "have-nots" where resources are concerned. I believe the Chinese are much more proactive on this issue than America. When you have a country consumed by debt your main focus is to keep solvent and not default, so your energies are diverted to service the debt and not your Nation. Of course the US FED prefers it that way and has worked a very long time to put America in this PONZI scam. China does not have that DEBT anchor, quite the opposite! So if you wonder why you never hear about the USA out in the World securing reserves like China is then I guess that explains it. Dependent Nations like the USA and Europe G8 can do nothing but watch. America may be safe in the thoughts of the supposed "Strategic Reserves" but it is a proven fact that like US workers who only have two weeks of savings in reserve so too does their government. US Strategic Reserves equals FDIC reserves. Besides those reserves are ultimately "politicized" and not strategic in any way. If they were really "strategic" then they would be 20 times larger and placed in all parts of the USA not just in the South. As it is the "strategic" part is just focused on military fuel, not civilian.

Ah-h-h-h ...

Looked like an interesting post Jock. Sadly, all I can see up here in Canada (a little 12 hour drive to Des Moines) is:

"We're sorry. This video is not available in your region due to rights restrictions."

This is becoming an all too frequent occurance for internet content coming from the U.S.. So be it. If only they had done that with all that financial products crap that the U.S. foisted on the planet, we'd all be a bit better off.

Mackinaw - Try it with a telephone modem.

"I can't get hockey video in Bahamas from TSN Canada."

That's just cruel and unusual punishment. :)

BTW, I found Jock's video here: http://www.pbs.org/pov/utopia/

Great job.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/minyanville-mo...

Mr. Practical from Minyanville (a manager who runs a 5 billion dollar fund and is as ethical as Bill) gives a lengthy summary of the scope of the problem.

I doubt it will work, but here's a link through tinyURL:

http://tinyurl.com/kp8gu8

I happened to view this mini-documentary last week and learned nothing in particular except that this was in fact a brand new and absolutely spectacular shopping mall on a scale that would make any modern city proud, it seemed like it was fully functional with escalators running and lights ablaze, security, janitorial, the whole nine-yards... Yet, not a shopper anywhere in sight, parking lot was barren. I think it's been this way for a couple of years, shoppers just never showed up.

An article from Forbes:

http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/17/retail-malls-shop...

The reason is clear! Everyone is here!
http://tinyurl.com/lrcfn9

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Investors are still trading common shares of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and American International Group Inc. by the billions, even though analysts say their prices are almost certain to go to zero.

All three are majority-owned by the government and are losing huge sums of money. The Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulators lack authority to end trading of stocks in such "zombie" companies that technically are alive -- until the government takes them off life support.

***continued on Yahoo News

Why, why do you trade this crappola? The plug can be pulled instantly. Do you also trade the GM bankruptcy shares which are pink sheeted?

Here is a companion article link I found on your blog, Dr Sen. Minyanville and Martenson on this issue go very well together...
Thanks for your posts, both here and your site.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/martensonreport/shel...

The financial coup continues - eventually people may see this for what it is.

Its been a laggard but up 6.7% today and 3% after hours. What does that mean for the NAZ tomorrow?

Before its downfall in the bear market I viewed it as a massively overpriced stock. I still don't have much interest. For starters, they pay nothing and have a rather large debt load. RSI-14 is 73 per Finviz. ROA is not too good at 7.3%.

Mac- Having read most of your posts for the last few years, I'd say you are doing damn well. Keep it up!

2nd- " Keep you posted on my research into custodial IRAs and income property investment."

I was going to ask you today about an up-date on that. GL, my friend. Talk to you soon.

I hear buzz about a smart phone for introduction in the Chinese market. Motorola has been scrambling to regain footing in that market as well, they're getting kicked in the pants.

Apparently very hot... could be a bunch of hot air, I have no way of verifying the case personally.

Listen, the truth is, if anyone has a really good situation going on, a strong business, inherited wealth, money they made, whatever, the bottom line is, if you don't need the market's headaches, uncertainty, stomache aches, whatever. Believe me, it's a lot better to inherit XYZ Widgets incorporated or whatever and bank a couple of hundred thousand a week than it is putting your cash on the line, particularly if your methodology isn't kicking the results your looking for. We all must know a thing or two about that subject. The market's really for scoundrels like me who really have no other way of making money, no real marketable skills:)

I prefer to think of this as someone branching out and exploring the other fruitful areas of his life, rather than turning his back on an "insider's game" or a rigged market or whatever unfortunate truth is depressing us today.

So bon voyage my friend. Peace love and happiness upon you. Truly, the market isn't for everybody. Hell, it's hardly for anybody. Like I intimated, you'd have to be three quarters nuts doing what we do. Make that completely nuts:)

2nd, best of luck in your new ventures. I have always enjoyed your posts and your musical diversions.

This song is for you.

http://tinyurl.com/l3ysuo

Davefairtex,

Interesting justaposition. The daily does not look very good but if you put it in practical terms for the stock investor vis-a-vis ETF's then there is a possible bottom. See GLD or CEF over USO.

Try this article from Uber Bear Bob Bronson:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/bronson/2...

If I had to say any company which both represents tech stocks and basic materials at the same time, its Tiemet (TIE)

No huge rally there over several months. In fact, the top of the rally there is clearly defineable. Note the drop-off in volume in the last few weeks.

2nd -

It's posts like yours that have kept me encouraged to try to wrestle with and understand (?) this ridiculous beast. I have benefited enormously from your insight and good humor and hope you will find what you're seeking; and perhaps, that you won't be gone too long.

Wishing you many good things.

Okay CP, I'm trying to wrap my head around this, so let me throw this out there.
Interest rates are low for a couple reasons, one the fed is keeping them low to help bank margins because they need to make a boatload to cover all that nasty debt they hold in the form of defaulting loans and they need margins on the decent loans they still have. They may also be using margins between foreign central bank agency debt and treasuries to fill some of the gap mentioned in Mr. Practical and Chris Martenson's articles.
Next, when public demand/needs are down there is low demand for loans and commodities, so interest rates are down and commodities hold. Equities run because the dollar isn't exactly strong and investors/traders/what-have-you are looking for return on capital and with interest rates down, bond yields down and no public activity to get return from, equities are the only game in town.

However, there is only so far the equities markets can go with no prospect of real profitable returns as there is no public demand for products, falling employment, etc. None of this looks particularly positive in this kick the can plan.

About the only thing I can think of is paying off debt and buying durable hardgoods that are in short supply that a growing world population will need, as sooner or later the created debt has to be paid, the bad debt will be paid down or written off, or there will be a currency default which will make dead presidents worthless pieces of paper. Then some commodities depend on demand, and without economic activity there isn't much demand and with worthless money we will be forced to about give them away.

I wonder about 2nd's plan as any income properties will have payments (unless paid for) and someone has to have income in something besides dead presidents to pay income for income property to be income property, not to mention what taxes will be like on property. Then, unless it's held in a ROTH IRA ( not mentioning ROTH changes here) standard IRA deductions will be taxed again as income.

This isn't leaving a whole lot of choices for return on capital or return OF capital....

Anyone have a better view? Bill? What say you?

Hmm you make a good point Illini. I think GLD:USO might actually be a better trade in this direction, since going short USO you win with the USO contango degeneration. When the time comes to flip the trade (long oil short gold) then futures are probably better.

Unfortunately, I couldn't get any USO today so I had to use futures to do the trade.

In either case, the weekly chart gives you a clearer picture, especially with MACD and the RSI divergences.

Late reply - my internet was broken most of the day.

I mostly disagree with the Seeking Alpha post about lithium feasibility. I have first hand experience with various battery technologies (albeit hobby related) and closely follow the birth of EV industry.

1. The key economic metric for EV battery is the cost per total lifetime charge (EV range between battery replacements) is excellent for the current crop of commercially available cells with LiMPO4 chemistry. The best examples like cells from A123 take 2-3k deep cycles before their performance drops. For comparison lead acid handles only 200-300 deep cycles, Older lithium-ion (including polymer type) and general purpose NiMH also about 500 deep cycles (although Prius batteries are a very special optimization of NiMH chemistry and can handle more cycles at the expense of lower energy density).

2. LiMPO4 are substantially safer than earlier generation lithium tech (remember stories laptop/phone fires).

3. LiMPO4 can be fully charged very fast - A123 cells can be safely charged in just 15 minutes. And this number is improving with newer chemistry variations.

Also note the disclaimer of author affiliation with Axion Power (develops new lead tech) and Exide (big lead acid house). Not that I have problem with that but this is not an independent view.

One point of the article that I agree with is that Congress has no business selecting what is the best battery chemistry. Financing fundamental research beyond 20yr patent boundary horizon - perhaps, but daily engineering work ?

My own disclaimer - my electric bike is powered by the pack build out of A123 LiFePO4 cells ;-) But I have no financial position in this industry. China has too high concentration of lithium mining / production for me to feel good about risk/reward profile.

On a slightly different subject - I think current business model for PHEV is not optimal. It would be much better to design a vehicle with modular battery pack (such that individual vehicle battery can be scaled to the desired daily driving range) and use a rental model for the battery modules. Thus if a person daily commuting range changes for whatever reason from say 30 miles to 10 miles he can change his rent to just 1/3 of the pack. Also takes care of lithium recycling and any battery service issues.

Thanks, putting that much money on the line for a single trade in the financial sector is not my cup of tea. But they were right and they made money.

Here's a video about High Frequency Trading from Patty Hirsch:

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/200...

Chris, when I lived in Sydney I was the Sheila from America taking some bloke's job. Only the men called me mate and their tone was not particularly affectionate. Once I made the serious mistake of entering the men's bar on Anzac Day and got a drubbing by a cobber. I was Scarlet O'Hara to their Crocodile Dundee. There were 2 factions to consider: the Aussies or the English and neither welcomed an independent gal with attitude. My women friends turned out to be Kiwis so next stop Auckland. This site has it's cobbers and it's enlightened too. Kia Ora!

Loannetter and Bill

I feel overall, the group here does not respect women.

Sorry, loanetter, that you were offended. I have been offended more than once and IGNORED.

vb

Vb, the ignore function (click ignore user) is very freeing-- try it!

Mackinaw said:> This is becoming an all too frequent occurance for internet content coming from the U.S

Ditto in Europe. We see how globalisation serves some, but not others. Guess free, publicly supported media wasn't part of the global media (money making) agenda.

The deflationary argument to counter the thought that all the money being generated will end up in the hands of consumers is this:
It's being used to write off bad debt.

It's happening both on the Fed side with the loans to the banks.

It's happening on the Treasury side with the bailouts of Fannie, Freddie (whoever else they're bailing out this week) and soon FDIC.

I am finding that the dispute between deflationists and inflationists is mostly due to the fact that those terms are overloaded, referring both to a monetary phenomenon (where we definitely have deflationary activity) and a pricing phenomenon (where it's muddier: housing prices and rents going down, but commodities holding up or going higher and food prices definitely going up)

CP,

We are more likely to have trouble getting into O'Hare.

Illini is right, I'm in Rockford where (thanks for the link) I see we are listed as much cooler overall. Must be the global warming I've been noticing. Actually we had the coolest July in decades this year.

When we built 42 years ago we had extra insulation and have topped it off since. I modified the original plan so we can close off various sections and direct the heat to where we are at any given time of the day or night.

We added a family room (30 yrs ago) with a wood stove which burns with a very low flame and two or three small logs will keep it very comfortable all evening without affecting the thermostat and furnace.

One son lived in Minneapolis for several years and while I am not surprised at the winter numbers for them, it always seemed lot a much hotter summer there.

I should go back and see what time period these numbers cover — possibly since they began keeping track and I'm just too young to know different :-)

I have pictured you somewhere in the (not too far) east.

ALOHA !!

2nd_ave ... You have been and still are a valuable component to the Cara community. Mahalo for that!!!

God, where would I be without CHANGE! You know life is nothing but a series of adaptations to your environment and I have always looked at CHANGE as something very positive and exciting and for me it has always made me a better person in the end. More wealthy in many ways other than money.

A tip of the hat ... I raise my Primo Beer bottle to you mate!!!

I think you will be the better for CHANGE. Not that trading has to be thrown out with the bathwater, but just the diversification aspect.

I cannot sit in front of computer screens all day and trade. I am just not made that way. I have to be out in the World and networking with people. Believe me I do a lot more of that than I ever let on here. Though if you ever visited me here you would think I am a hermit! HA!!

For me "networks" are the key and the bigger your network the greater your chances are to be successful. I would not have had one tenth the success I have now if it were not for my "networks".

So yeah ... get out there and diversify and build your network. GO BIG!! I doubt you can go wrong and I am sure you will be successful.

Give my regards to SF!

Keep in touch and all the best ...

THANK YOU Kaimu. That's about what I was picturing, you said it another way which put it clear focus for me. Mr. Practical's story was too convoluted to follow for me. As usual you made it easy.

Good on ya Mate.

Loannetter and VB,
I hope you don't think everyone here is a pig, because some Caraistas respect you. Maybe not so much for your gender, but for what you contribute.
I may a bit slow on some details, but if it weren't for you pointing it out, there would be no way to know by your screen names or contributions what gender you are and honestly to me, it didn't and doesn't matter. I respect your contributions and that you happen to be women really isn't germain (at least for me). It seems the majority here are men, they think like men, they write like men, they reveal themselves as men (add cavemen and grunting sounds here). Sometimes that's good, and sometimes not.
But don't let that dampen your spirit or color your attitude. You both are as capable as anyone here, and in some ways more so, because as women you bring something here the rest of us, for the most part, can't contribute.

As for Australians, I am in the dog biz and most of the people I know on the continent are women, and highly accomplished strong women at that, but I know a fair number of men as well and there are some good blokes as well as Sheila's. I also know a number of Aussie men absolutely full of themselves and proud they live the hard life, work hard, drink hard (could be a big part of the problem) and fight hard. (Add caveman and grunting noises here). There is dysfunction everywhere, but in the long run, things change.

Continue the good fight and know you are respected.

2_nd,

this decision of yours to distant yourself from the market is no excuse not to come to CTAB conference, right?

Don't disappear!