[7:30am ET]. One week before the year-end holidays, with retail sales plunging and unemployment soaring, the world is bracing for the worst.
After the Fed cut its key lending rate to commercial banks to zero on Tuesday, its counterparts in Norway, Czech Republic, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Kuwait also cut interests rates. Japan, UK, Europe and Canada will likely follow suit with additional rate cuts.
In time, history will show that global interest rates will have reached their lowest levels ever.
Governments too are rolling out the biggest spending and tax relief programs in history to help prevent a global economic recession from turning into a depression.
Apparently, President-elect Obama is going to announce a trillion dollar program of economic stimuli. By the time all the other government programs have been announced, the fiscal stimulus will amount to many trillions of dollars.
As the global economy shrinks, less energy will be used. As a result, crude oil production will have to drop to the level of demand. OPEC producers have announced cutting output by a record 2.2 million barrels a day.
The world equity market too has adjusted. Prices of the Dow Jones World Index plunged during the 2007-2008 Bear market by -55.3% from 321.07 to 143.41.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJW&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p94713828946
Whether this equity is held by the people of the world directly or via pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds or the wealth managers and financial advisers of the banks, the total wealth of people holding investment securities has been crushed.
So, how will these events of the past year affect your 2009 spending, saving and investing plans? Isn’t that the issue you face today?
Are you going to acknowledge that government, central banks, OPEC, and bank wealth managers have failed you? Or, will it be business as usual?
With interest rates so low, does investment in real estate hold the same appeal as was the case for the past 75 years? Who wants to invest in 3.5% mortgages any more? Does a risk-free 30-year US Treasury yield under 3.0% have any appeal?
As I see it, there are two viable alternatives, both of which require a self-directed brokerage account. You can manage your own financial wealth, which will require some additional training, or you can retain an independent professional manager for discretionary trading in your account.
Are you going to let a registered salesperson that works for an investment dealer do that, as many people have in the past, or will you operate via an independent electronic broker? Will you ever again permit conflict of interest to exist where it affects your personal wealth?
I think you know where I stand. As I see it, you have two options and I’ll help you do whatever you feel is the best one for you.
We have to start with the premise that from this day forward it’s all about you.
Comments
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Downgrade:
INTC - to Underperform @ Jefferies & Co. Price Target Lowered from $26 to $11
New Coverage:
NOK - Sell @ Canaccord Adams
Price Target Lowered:
INTC - from $15.50 to $13 @ Friedman Billings
Currency Movers
Feverish action in currencies starting about 10 days ago. Currently the Euro, followed by the Yen, have the leading momentum.
http://tinyurl.com/43stla
edit: ROC(10 day) - Euro/USD +25.31%, Swiss Franc/USD +24.91%, Swedish Krona/USD +19.98%
Cara 100 Update
QCOM - Price Target Lowered from $45 to $39 @ Jefferies & Co.
Obama To "Shakeup" SEC
http://tinyurl.com/3upyfl
I'll believe it when I see it.
[Bill Cara note] I believe it. Mary Schapiro is not a politician like Chris Cox. She is a professional regulator. Her previous speeches should be music to the ears of the great unwashed.
going forward
Thanks Bill Cara for putting what seems to be a supremely chaotic situation into clear and unambiguous focus. I'd like handle my own investments I have to ask myself seriously whether I have the smarts and the nerve to risk a lot more in this market.
One thing is sure, sitting on cash, which is basically what I have been doing for several months (except for a very little inexpert day trading and holding some gold and silver), has become the worst of all long-term choices.
Thanks again. Your work here is extremely valuable to guys like me.
Jeff - Attachmnet Failure
Jeff - This is a repeat of a message posted earlier this morning and is in response to your email.
Submitted by spot on Thu, 12/18/2008 - 07:10. #3561
Jeff - My attachment file failed again. It was a gif file of 19KB size and got the http error again. I sent you an email response with some thoughts but hit the wrong button first; so, I'm not sure that it actually was sent. Let me know if you do not get the email, and I will send it again.
Thanks.
big deal?
Both dow and s&p just pierce 50 dma. This is a big deal?
30 seconds of DD on SLW
a lot of love for SLW here in the past few days. Big mood swing from a few weeks ago. Hmmm
- go to stockcharts.com, or your favorite charting site
- key in 3 yrs for "slw". OK, stop drooling on yourself
- overwrite slw with "$copper". Pause. Ugly chart
- now key in "slw:$copper". Make sure you're staring at the 3 yr chart for perspective. If you understand what you're looking at, are comfortable trading moonshots, and aware of any related risks, keep trading SLW. But for my money, I'd like to see copper get at least *some* traction before I get too deep into SLW. A week after Obama announced the infrastructure buildout, and copper is stalled / falling at the low...I'm viewing SLW as related to the mining of industrial metals, vs. a precious metals play in its own right with this approach... but to a large degree, thats what SLW is.
~Sleepless
ESLR bidding up pre-market.
ESLR bidding up pre-market. Sold rump position for 50% gain @ 3.15.
FSLR
I'll try a test position in FSLR today after its break through the 50 day moving average on strong volume yesterday.
Cara 100 Update
IBM - Coverage Initiated @ UBS with a Neutral
SIL
She's got the steam today!
DJ World index chart link
Bill, the link to the DJW index chart is not complete.
"The world equity market too has adjusted. Prices of the Dow Jones World Index plunged during the 2007-2008 Bear market by -55.3% from 321.07 to 143.41.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui"
Try this one, (sometimes we all forget to press the "linkable version" button below the chart)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJW&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p94713828946
Whoops forgot Drupral does not like that $ in URL's, replaced with special entity coding, " &# 36; " without space in the middle.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJW&p=W&b=5&g=0&...
[Bill Cara note] Thanks, keep reminding me. I rush and don't check this stuff.
TBT/DXO
Both gapping down. Seems like a daily thing now. If TBT breaks yesterday's lows, I'm out again with another losing trade.
Put bid for TBT at 32 and SRS
Put bid for TBT at 32 and SRS at 50
Last night I fantasized about
Last night I fantasized about the ultimate hail mary....Find a chart that "has" to go up and put all yer marbles in....Then it triples and you sell sell sell.
Very irresponsible, but kind of tempting.
gold and gold stocks
gold doing its usual pre-market plunge.
w/ yesterdays topping out action in the gold stocks in the US,
and w/ todays fall in the POG i suspect TSX traders will see the gold
mining stocks fall today, at levels lower than when gold was moving up above $850. the usual negative divergence when gold falls.
i think people still mistakenly believe that gold stocks will not act like regular stocks in the event of another market dump, they have advanced much better than the broad market but i suspect they will fall just as hard if not harder on any serious market declines.
volume doesn't look strong enough to really hold anything here at this point,
and with gold not moving up relative to the US dollars massive dump the past few days tells me we have run out of steam temporarily here.
we need to see gold and the stocks advancing on strong volume while the rest of the market is doing noting or moving down before we can say that the stocks have truly disconnected. a few weeks of divergence does not satisfy this thesis.
no one seemed to think gold stocks or gold would fall in these market panics and were proven wrong, few seemed to have learned their lesson as i see all the usual newsletter writers have praised the "end" of the liquidation in gold stocks (the liquidation they never foresaw but feel smart enough to tell us its over), be careful here.
[Bill Cara note:] I saw it and said that we had started selling covered calls against the positions we wanted to keep. We sold some other positions and we started selling short calls against purchases of longer dated calls in this industry. We did so because even with the indication that the superb gold run has got to correct at some point (ie, profit taking, and also potential central bank selling to support their currencies), there is still a probability (based on fiat money value and currency trading markets) that gold will still run substantially higher in the longer run.
Look at the StockCharts.com main chart on the home page. At the bottom there are links to market summary and breadth indicator. For the latter, clear out the major market indexes, and insert all the important gold and silver company symbols, like GG, ABX, KGC, AEM, AUY, SLW, etc. Do nine of them. Use a fast stochastic 8 and 3 period indicator, and voila, you have a negative cross-over on them all. That is a WARNING. Some of us were watching. Some of us protected ourselves. Hope that helps.
Re: ESLR bidding up pre-market.
ESLR is trying to break above its 50 sma on the daily. No reason for this to go up if the mythological coupling to oil has any validity. Myth busted?
Did you notice UBS stopped
Did you notice UBS stopped running those stupid ads at 9:25 am?
"You and us...avoiding taxes illegally together"
Crude Oil
When Bill ignores the maneuvering in Crude, what could this possibly indicate? I have positions, and remain concerned with the price action of many commodities.
Update:09:40 - Oil is falling hard now, how can this be ignored? Throw me a bone, I got crushed when oil fell under $80......!!!
Re: gold and gold stocks
dr.cosa - "negative divergence"
If I'm not mistaken, this would be convergence...
Opportunity in Bonds?
I keep hearing that corporate/muni/high yield bonds are priced for depression type default rates and that money is not going to flow from the "largest mattress in the world", short term treasuries, then straight into equities.
It will first move out to investment grade corporates, munis, and then high yield. As instituions/individuals become less risk averse then we will see it flow to equities in a more meaningful way. The opportunity in bonds makes sense to me but I just keep thinking about the fact that if "everyone knows something it's not worth knowing". I've seen the phrase "equity like return potential in bonds over next 12-18 mos" several times.
Any insight that you may have is appreciated.
Re: Last night I fantasized about
This sounds just like my vision for PM's
RYL
This homebuilder and others have regained a lot of ground recently. In fact, many have found levels they were at before the Oct crash in the broader market. RYL is now testing the upper bound of a long-term down channel.
While I see some positives for the housing market - declining mtg rates and lowering prices and lower starts - I don't see how this helps builders improve their cash flow or helps them to meet their debt obligations. Watching still ... but there seems to be some air under these stocks.
Update: I see the reason -- Lennar's report of smaller loss on lower revenues.
Re: Opportunity in Bonds?
Schleppy, Great idea.
Instead of going into specific bonds, bond funds may be an option,
Does anyone have a list ofbond funds that they are monitoring for a possible entry ?
I went short a little yamana
I went short a little yamana this morning so far it's worked out
I almost went shor SLW woulda
I almost went shor SLW woulda made a fortune
it feels like october!
this mornings action feels like october.
spy holding a small gain but gold stocks tumbling.
again we are seeing gold stocks at a much lower level than last time gold was at $860.
TCK getting hit bad, not a good omen for the rest of the commodity complex.
ive sold about 1/3 of my position this morning.
Re: Crude Oil
I would like to see a discussion of these issues as well...are we headed to $25? My portfolio wants to know
whoof
That was an interesting start to the day's trading...
TBT
divergence on hourly MACD, added to position at 36.59.
Daytrading the Goldminers
As I added to one of the earlier points, with respect to the goldminers yesterday and the day before, we had started selling covered calls against the positions we wanted to keep. We sold some other positions and we started selling short calls against purchases of longer dated calls in this industry.
We did so because even with the indication that the superb gold run has got to correct at some point (ie, profit taking, and also potential central bank selling to support their currencies), there is still a probability (based on fiat money value and currency trading markets) that gold will still run substantially higher in the longer run.
Look at the StockCharts.com main chart on the home page. At the bottom there are links to market summary and breadth indicator. For the latter, clear out the major market indexes, and insert all the important gold and silver company symbols, like GG, ABX, KGC, AEM, AUY, SLW, etc. Do nine of them. Use a fast stochastic 8 and 3 period indicator, and voila, you have a negative cross-over on them all. That is a WARNING signal, albeit one that is short-term oriented.
SLW
Loaded up under $3.00 back when, sitting on a double, holding. Getting a little chop this morning, but it will be fine.
Re: TBT
TLT max pain shows 110 for Dec/Jan. TLT showing hourly divergence too.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
KSS - Downgraded at Merrill from Buy to Neutral. $40 price target
NKE - Numbers Cut at Barclays. Shares now seen reaching $70. Overweight rating.
PAYX - Numbers Lowered at Barclays. Estimates cut through 2010. Equal-weight rating and new $28 price target.
Re: I almost went short SLW woulda
shark- the best move to make when you make a post like that is to take the opposite trade...
Re: Opportunity in Bonds?
Where were these guys who are predicting "equity type returns in bonds over next 12 - 18 months" three months ago. Bonds have moved 20 % since then. The move is over. Have you ever noticed the pundits always get prominent "front page" space at the top/bottom of any move in anything. i.e. at oil px of $140 - "Oil will go to $200" etc.
Tell me what the "equity type" return on the ten year bot at a 2.00 yield today if a nine year, one year from now, is yielding 4%? Big minus!
Don't let these guys sucker you into what may be the biggest loss of the century - holding bonds with maturities of 10 tears or more.
They are debasing our currency. Look at what has happened to the dollar in the last week and a half. What follows is inflation. What follows inflation is bonds move down. Expect big losses ahead for bondholders.
Since we cannot predict exactly when it starts you have to average into TBT or other negative interest rate plays.
Re: Opportunity in Bonds?
Schlep and Sandy -Don't even think about it.
Wonderful!
I'm underwater on oil again! Is this a buying opportunity? The traders on the floor say oil's going to $25, OPEC cuts production to keep prices from falling. The price tanks. I cannot bring myself to ignore any of this.
[Bill Cara note:] You are looking at a futures market that has gone crazy, but that situation (gap between Jan and Feb futures) will soon be resolved. At the end of the day, the oil market is based on economics of supply and demand. The crucial factor is how much will it cost from today going fwd to find, produce, refine and deliver oil in the US to Americans, under US control. Unless America has decided to wave the white flag to the Middle East and Russia and President-elect Obama is willing to appoint Hugo Chavez of Venezuela to his cabinet, you can forget about the present goings-on in the futures market, which is to say that oil prices will not go down, but will soon be trading in the 60-75 range. It is a Homeland Security issue and Crude Oil cannot be priced at less than 60 in order for the friendlies to make a profit. Maybe the govt will take over the domestic oil industry too just like the bond traders are thinking they will take over the real estate mortgage industry, otherwise you would never see interest rates so low. In time, markets will get back to normal, chickenpookie, and you can relax. What you are going through today is the angst of day-trading when you'd prefer the market to allow you a longer time horizon. That's all.
RIMM earning after closed,
RIMM earning after closed, may be able to buy back at 35?
Re: gold and gold stocks
"i think people still mistakenly believe that gold stocks will not act like regular stocks in the event of another market dump"
A different perspective is that from late 2000 to mid 2002 spx lost 50% hui gained 450%. To date since 2000 spx is down 40% and hui is up 750%. Since their recent 52 week highs spx is down 40% and hui is down 40%. Since their recent 52 week lows spx is up 25% and hui is up 100 % (lows to highs) So the performance shows that they have not acted like regular stocks at all imho.
Re: Opportunity in Bonds?
In the Canadian landscape, don't forget convertible debentures, too. Anyone have a list of which ones trade on the TSX?
[Bill Cara note: Is the TSX actually trading today?
Re cv debs, the Wall St Journal has a list. These are very good choices actually for risk averse accounts, but you have to be sure that the corporate financials are very strong and that the most severe recession will not kill the interest yield or the stock price. I'd check the dividend yield and pay-out percentage. If both are fairly low and the corporate debt is very low then the company stock is likely not to be a problem in future and the interest payments ought to be ok.]
alright...that's that.
alright...that's that.
Re: TBT
I see that div, too. Price hit low this a.m. just above my stop. If it holds, and if the signal line on that hourly MACD turns up, I may add to my position.
Tarullo to be appointed by Obama to the Fed board
His bio indicates he has a new book in the works that should be of interest to us all:
Daniel K. Tarullo is Professor of Law at Georgetown University Law Center. He returned to full-time law teaching in 1999 after a decade in private practice and government service. He teaches in the areas of international economic regulation, banking law, and international law. During the fall 2005 semester he was a visiting Professor of Law at Harvard Law School. He was Frederick H. Schultz Professor of International Economic Policy at Princeton University during the fall 2004 semester.
Professor Tarullo's recent publications include articles on sovereign debt problems, the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention, dispute settlement in the World Trade Organization, and reforms to the international financial system. He is currently at work on a book dealing with international banking regulation.
Opportunity in Bonds
You might want to monitored HYG which is an ishares junk bond fund. Huge volume yesterday. I bought yesterday and sold this morning since its run strong three days in a row. Looking for a pullback to re-evaluate.
Look like it is going stay at
Look like it is going stay at this narrow range until 3.00p.m
And screw all option players. Tomorrow s expiration day
Re: 30 seconds of DD on SLW
sleepless you might want to put the whole precious/base metal and energy complex in the same basket. All are taking their lumps today.
Re: TBT
Doug Kass threw in the towel on half of his TLT short. Howard Gold gave up his TBT position on MSN Money.
The obvious, easy trade usually doesn't work for me. And I'm usually early to buy and early to sell.
Re: gold and gold stocks
thx for the breakdown tbar,
the action of the stocks in the past few months is what im referring to
as the past few months have seen the wiping out of so much of the past few years gains in gold stocks.
people who were on the boat for market crash but mistakenly felt that gold and the gold stocks would decouple were very much wrong, regardless of the gains the past few years.
Re: TBT
I think it's going to crack at some point, but I want to wait for it to blow up first. I'd rather capture 75% of its move when I'm more sure of its direction. At least that's the plan...Good luck to all trying to trade this one.
Re: 30 seconds of DD on SLW
Yes, we've all seen this happen many times before. It happened all the way from oil at $145 to oil at $40.
TCK
TCK hit the bottom of it's recent trend channel (14 days)and just to clear out the stops, went to 4.95, which is a decent stop for an entry on this pullback. Sure a nice little stair step pattern.
You can run the same chart for UUP/UDN/$USD and see the same channel in reverse (down) which will confirm what TCK will do. And PM's....
Do your own DD/gut stirring....I'm attending that gut stirring seminar in the Bahamas with 2X4 reinforcement.
SLW
looks like healthy profit taking. not worried
Re: Wonderful!
thanks Bill!!
Re: TBT
bsi87,
I watched TBT for a few days and got in today at 36.75.
What is your target to exit?
Re: Wonderful!
Thanks for that thoughtful response to CP's post, Bill. It's so easy these days to lose sight of the long-term fundamentals of a market during periods of short-term uncertainty. Oil seems to be a perfect case in point.
Re: Opportunity in Bonds?
What I am referring to is not US Treasuries but corporates, munis, and even some foreign debt, ie Brazil, that has continued to get slaughtered with the panic and flight to safety. The yield spreads between these and treasuries are at all time highs. I have heard high quality corporates are pricing in a 16% default rate. I guess the question is whether these spreads are justified or will they revert to the mean. Meaning collect high yields now and then price appreciation later. Also looking at this more like a trade, not holding long term or to maturity.
I own some TBT and agree that there appears to be a huge bubble in treasuries.
Re: TBT
Stopped out yet again. Jack, this trade is still finding its bottom.
Re: gold and gold stocks
Dr Cosa, I for one never considered it could be as bad as it was since last march. The lesson for me is trade what is not what you expect, but still it seems huge losses were unavoidable for myself.(not being nimble enough at trading) In retrospect just a simple uptrend break on the weekly chart should have been enough to go to cash and wait a few months.
Big picture
Looking at the bigger picture, housing prices are still falling. This is the most substantial housing price decrease since the GD. So, is the housing market leading the equities market? It seems plausible to me!
TBT and TIP
I paired my TBT with TIP. My thinking is that TIP will go up on the fear trade along with TLT and hedge my TBT. While fear is bringing money into TLT my TIP will rise while TBT falls. When TLT falls, TIP will fall some (but be buffered by concurrent inflation expectations) but TBT will rise 2x. So far it has worked.
Re: TBT
here's what I see.
on stockcharts.com, if u plot TBT:TLT, the 7 day RSI is 10.89. It is nearing capitulation (RSI 7 day < 10). TBT gapped down at the open yesterday. The daily MACD is showing divergence for TBT. TLT 7 day RSI is 91.27. The Triple RSI screen for TLT has been in the distribution zone for 16 days. Volume yesterday exceeded the previous day with about a 3 pt gap up opening, suggesting a buying climax. The 3 pt move exceeded the 10 day ATR of 2.38, a larger than normal move.
Volume this morning for TBT is about 47% of the 10 day average already. TLT is 27% of average.
One could set a contingent order to go long TBT when/if TLT fills the gap at roughly 117.86.
We'll know in the fullness of time.
Re: TBT
It sure smells like TLT wants to crack downward. But perhaps my short bias is wafting those fumes...
Re: TBT
Is this one of these trades that gap will never get filled?
I doubt it. This reminds me the oil story that kept up and up and up earlier this year (feels like last year). I tried to short it in May and June using options and got burnt badly on short expiration. People using old fashioned shorting and a lot patience did OK shorting oil.
10 year (TNX), opinions and concerns...
Don't be surprised if the TNX gets a One handle next year.
Where are producer nations going to get their revenues? Not enought from commodities.
Mortgage rates for 30 year fixed loans are at historical lows of 4.75% (should be able to get that with little fees) but who are they benefiting? Expeect them to get much, much lower next year but no real benefit to the existing home owners with problems. Only those with equity and income in homes will benefit. Also those who are shopping for homes will benefit but those shoppers probably aren't facing economic challenges. Thus less buyers to demand homes... Look out hou-mart shoppers as prices are still falling.
IMHO - for the rest of the post.
Rates will and should be low for a long time, one to keep banks a float with free money and number two to keep consumer financing costs low as possibible so they can then in turn demand stuff that comes from producer nations...
Government bonds; will and should continue to have investment appeal because the tail does not wag the dog. The dog are the spenders (consumers) and the spenders are in a pool of deep ca-ca.
Expect lemmings to continue to buy these government bonds hand over fist, FED pretty much said they will do what ever it takes to prevent deflation (only problem is they can only control one "Letter" (Monetary units) of the formula and not the important one "Velocity".
Stay away from the bond trade for a long period of time (long or short), there will be a time to gamble on the bubble but now isn't the time.
The patient is very very sick (global economy) and the bond market debt (and central banks) are the only thing keeping it on life support.
The world needs more debt (money) issued and the only instrument left to issue the debt are world governments.
Can we possibly believe that the world is going to stop buying bonds? that would be like pushing the globe off of a cliff, starving the globe from money, i mean debt which would result in more Global defaults.
Obama is going to have a 750 bil to 1 trill (prob 850 bil) digging and filling holes and changing light bulbs plan (some of the stuff is needed very much so! seriously), the world already knows it. They shouldn't shun that bill of an opportunity to attempt to get the globe going forward. They will line up to buy the debt and support our deficits as more and more credit is being destroyed.
The bond market is screaming deflation, the USD currency is in a counter trend move with the EURO. Currency speculators will be in for a massive dissapointment next year when the USD does another 180 because of the news from our friends across the pond.
Expect a seasaw of back and forth rush from one currency to the other as everyone tries to game the trade.
Waiting for my opportunty to buy Gold but I do expect a much lower price.
Oil will crush $35 next year... Didn't believe it would be so soon. geopolitically this is going to get scary. I would imagine Greece isn't going to be the only country with social unrest.
I am thankful for health/happiness and that I have things to be stressful about.
I kinda like CDE long...small
I kinda like CDE long...small pos
Re: TBT
Those divergences on the hourly and daily charts for TBT/TLT are incredible. But I'm not going to try to front run this trade any more. I'll wait until we get confirmation of a reversal. I like your idea of a breakdown in TLT to 117. That leave plenty of room for a good trade in TBT.
As you say ... time will tell the story.
Re: TBT
I would look to start taking something off the table when TBT approaches its 50 DEMA which is 51.82 today or the 7 day RSI gets in the 70 area. JMO for now.
new comments
Bill
this tab is great, saves a lot of time scrolling thanks.
Bush considering 'orderly' auto bankruptcy
This news is flashing on headlines now.
Re: TBT
the 10 day ATR is 2.06, a day and half trailing stop would be 3 bucks or so, if you are trading in the hourly/daily/weekly time. Obviously if u are trading in shorter timeframes, the ATR would be smaller.
SLW : Back nibbling at 5.89
SLW : Back nibbling at 5.89
Re: Wonderful!
Thank you Bill, I feel one hell of a lot better after my morning stroke, a pot of coffee, and your clarification.
BTW - "Maybe the govt will take over the domestic oil industry too just like the bond traders are thinking they will take over the real estate mortgage industry"
I don't anticipate US government taking over domestic oil industries like in other countries, but the situation in NAT gas is gov price control in my view (No LNG exports save some small exceptions). The US sold off huge amounts of oil in earlier days, so there's a de-facto energy policy in there somewhere.
Mortgage industry - Unfortunately the Gov will have to take over this industry, IMO the situation doesn't seem to be stabilizing quickly enough to avert disaster.
Re: 10 year (TNX), opinions and concerns...
I think you are absolutely correct, however, things will get better before they will get worse. This is how the markets work and besides, Christmas is coming.
Re: SLW : Back nibbling at 5.89
I have been expecting this pullback/profit taking. I am just glad it happened cuz i was starting to extrapolate imaginary pullbacks.
At least now i can stop guessing the when and how much on the pullback.
As soon as i get my bonus i will prob look at other opportunities but also look to sell calls to lower my cost basis, and not have to guess a good entry point. (this concept by the way was never taught to me at NYU Stern -Finance) or i was sleeping when they did teach it.
i often wonder if i would have been better off going to Baruch College, an excellent city university in nyc, and not be in student loan debt. i know the answer already.
Re: new comments TAB
Mikede, what new comments tab are you talking about ?
thanks,
TLT
intraday head and shoulders forming?
Re: 10 year (TNX), opinions and concerns...
norm - "Only those with equity and income in homes will benefit."
Risking the chance of taking this out of context, I cannot agree entirely. I have 100% equity in my home (aside from annual property taxes, a separate subject). If the value of my home falls, aren't I taking a haircut as opposed to holding cash?
Re: TLT
just don't know when the head will appear.
HYG
Telestar3d.....Thanks...I will put it on my radar screen.
I seem to remember quite a bit written in Ben Graham's "The Intelligent Investor" about discounted/distressed debt...I'll have to head to the library and re-read.
Bill's gold stock - stockcharts tip
Great Stockcharts tip! Furthermore, if you want to look at any industry group. Click on the 'CandleGlance Groups' link. When the screen loads, scroll down to the bottom and you will see a link to several of the major industry groups preloaded. Or you can create your own and save them.
Excellent entry/exit tool.
GS
Like Bill said, GS sure knows how to make money.
http://tinyurl.com/5xxa88
Re: gold and gold stocks
Yep, the sad part about timing that's 180 Degrees out is you either sell at substantial loss or wait it out for who knows how long just to retrieve your capital.
Timing is everything if your horizon is less than 10 years. 10 years of compounding can make the difference between a nest egg and a goose egg.
quasi
When you log on to Cara's Commentary read all the posting log off. The next next time you go back on at the the bottom it shows you how many new comments since last time you read the Commentary, click that it takes you to where you left off.
Re: TLT
If it gets down to mid $120 today then I think we may be in a intraday h&s
Final fling
My contention, for the past year, is the Final bottom for equities will be when the Dow reaches the 6500 area. Has anyone noticed that large cap techs ( ie: msft, csco, intc, aapl, rimm, etc ) have not had anything close to the bounces off ' existing ' bottoms that other sectors have had ? Look at FLR, RTP, AUY, GS, etc... Some bounces have been 100%.. My point? Look at the DOW chart for the 1995 - 1996 time frame. Now look at the 95' - 96' Nasdaq chart, Specifically the ' Fab 5 '- CSCO, MSFT, DELL, INTC, ORCL... Now, overlay these charts with the Dow.. A literal explosion upward, with No backfill in the gap... All major gaps eventually fill.. This is no exception
Re: 10 year (TNX), opinions and concerns...
Light Bulbs - Who manufactures those LED house light bulbs? With an energy-conscious president (if you can actually believe what you hear), Energy saving technologies are going to the moon when inflation kicks in.
Re: Final fling
Perhaps, but does the fact that the current crisis is financially oriented in nature come into play for this theory? This might explain why small caps would be hit especially hard.
Re: gold and gold stocks
so, if I invested $100 bucks in the market in 1998 and held, how much would I have now? Goose egg.
Re: 10 year (TNX), opinions and concerns...
Cree in SC is one company. There are a couple of large companies I can't remember off the top of my head that have divisions that make them also
Social Equity / Wall Street Bonuses
This CNBC article made me want to punch "Mr. O'Neil", "Mr. Gross, " "Mr. Kim" and their ilk:
http://tinyurl.com/3hxv39
I believe in free enterprise and rewarding risk and honest work. But this, this is simply disgusting.
And now the transferred their risk to us. They keep the reward, of course.
Re: GS
They know how to suck blood from poor unsuspecting/unconcious victims, Primarily children this year...
Re: 10 year (TNX), opinions and concerns...
And speaking of LEDs and Cree, this just came across the wire:
http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/news.html?re...
Mikede, re new comments (Korvus)
Yes thanks, I use that feature quite a bit, very handy.
I was thinking maybe you had found a way to pick up on when Bill adds a note to a previous post. In the old typekey system when I refreshed, my browser would go to the first new post, even if it was Bill modifying an older post, it new something had changed.
Under this new system, myself and others often miss Bill's added comments as they don't show up as new posts. If we edit one of our own posts, it shows up as new even though its still in the original order of the posts, (time stamp is changed). However when Bill edits someones post it does not show up as new and thus are easy to miss. Of course if the reply button is used it shows up as a new post with a link to the original post, but I understand why Bill likes to place the comment directly in the original post.
Korvus any way to flag Bill's post edits as "new", that would solve the problem.
short term back in
short term section of the account is back in gold after todays swift dump.
HGU @ $10.60
stop at $10.20
sell 1/2 position @$11 then raise stop to $10.80, sell the rest at $11.50
Re: gold and gold stocks
"so, if I invested $100 bucks in the market in 1998 and held, how much would I have now? Goose egg."
Hmm, in a general sense yes. In the case of Wall Mart and PM's that would be slightly different. Timing and quality are key.
Re: Social Equity / Wall Street Bonuses
I remember when I first read Liar's Poker and thought that it should be a warning to some of the other Wall St. firms that saw what happended to Salamon Brothers and its CEO. Instead, it served as a blueprint.
CREE
nemo - Yes CREE, thank you. I owe you a few flakes...
RIMM earning after closed
Vinod:
I too am anxious to hear RIMM’s report this evening. The new “Storm” has been receiving mixed reviews with stories of mass returns taking place.
Estimates are for $.83.
Bad news ….I’m thinking gap set back on 10/02/06 gets filled by year end.
Good news….I get some relief on shares purchased at a much higher level.
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/12/blackberry-sto...
Howard Gold
closing his TLT short and waiting for the bear market rally...hmmm.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Str...
HYG
Really moving now. No Position. Would any of you TA guys like to comment on the chart?
Re: HYG
HYG already has hit its 50 DEMA at 69.50. RSI 7 day is at 82.
JNK appears to have more upside at this point.
FD:Long JNK.
TSE:MBT
Good morning, all;
I have been watching the Canadian telecom stock Manitoba Telecom (T.MBT) and recently have been interested in holding it in the "widows and orphans" portion of my portfolio.
It's recently fallen completely out of bed (range approx. 39-42 bucks; now down to $31.35 this morning) and I was curious if anyone follows it and has insight as to why it's been hit so hard lately. Their recent 2% growth rate is nothing special, but with an 8.25% dividend I expected more of a floor to be in place.
Could anyone explain why it's been taken out and beaten recently? Could BCE actions be having an effect? Any insights greatly appreciated.
Thanks!
jrinbc
Re: Tarullo to be appointed by Obama to the Fed board
So where IS this change that the presumptive President-elect claimed to be bringing to the Beltway?
Tarullo is a tool of the very Liberal Ivy League Elitists who have wrought upon us all the mess we have today! A quick examination of his background reveals a career steeped in the underworld that is Lobbying as well as a stints for the Leftist-Socialist icon Ted Kennedy and Center for American Progress.
We need another Socialist pablum puking yes-man in the Fed like we need the Fed in the first place. Fact is, we don't.
FXI petering out?
Taking a nibble at FXP with tight stop...
LED lights and manufacturers
Here's one of my short lists for those interested in this subject. I haven't done much DD in this area, although it has been of interest for a couple of years.
Arima Opto: www.aocepi.com.tw
Avago: www.avagotech.com
Citizen Electronics: www.c-e.co.jp/e
Cree: www.cree.com
Epistar: www.epistar.com.tw
Everlight: www.everlight.com
Nichia: www.nichia.co.jp
Nomura Research: www.nri.co.jp
OSRAM Opto: www.osram-os.com
Philips Lumileds: www.lumileds.com
Seoul Semiconductor: www.seoulsemicon.co.kr
Stanley Electric: www.stanley.co.jp/e
Sumitomo: www.sumitomocorp.co.jp
Toyoda Gosei: www.toyoda-gosei.com
risk
is increasing here. Comparing to volatility measures, DJIA, SPX, and NAZ are all above 75. P/C ratio is dropping.
Re: HYG
Thanks bsi87....HYG is certainly getting more volume.
RIMM earning after closed
Sorry 9/29/06 not 10/02.....can't even read my own trading journal these days.
I flipped to the long side in
I flipped to the long side in Yamana after getting out of my early am short profitably.
ABK
bought some at $1.35
Re: LED lights and manufacturers
Article in NYT a few months ago said Phillips was skipping fluorescents in favor of LEDs but that they still cost $100 per lightbulb.
Re: Mikede, re new comments (Korvus)
It is a little odd that Bill's edits don't show up as new... I'll take a look at it.
Re: risk
I see that the market is overstreach some, but the thing is with the record high bonds and yen, I don't see it a top. Bonds and yen have to plummet first.
Another thing is while the general market is going down, FAS and TNA refuse to drop and I was unable to buy them back on a dip.
Correction: FAS just filled at under $25, TNA relatively strong.
Re: LED lights and manufacturers
Yes the payback is still pretty long and hard to justify on a cost basis for consumer use, but costs are coming down quickly.
Right now I only see the advantage for critical applications where long life and reliability make it worthwhile. I'm seeing early adoption in areas like traffic lights, emergency lighting and coastal navigation buoys, etc, particularly where the labor to replace the bulb is far more than the cost of the bulb.
Re: LED lights and manufacturers
RE: $100 a bulb. This is what I thought, but I saw LED bulbs for $5 each (replaces 40W) in Sams Club recently in 3-pack. Not sure of quality though. When the Phillips compact fluorescent bulbs came out in high volumes, they were $15-20 each, now they are $1-5.
Re: re Edit comments (Korvus)
Seems to be related to Bill's level of admin rights where he can edit any post, but it doesn't change the time/date stamp. When we edit our own posts the time/date stamp is updated thus its identified as a new post, although it is sometimes hard to tell what was changed / edited. It is helpful when the author indicates what was changed ie [edit] comment, but this is currently a manual task. If useful perhaps the edit post screen could put all edit changes in italic, although its often not necessary for some of the updates, ie spelling corrections.
Gadzooks! I cashed out of
Gadzooks! I cashed out of yamana at six-eighty three
TBT
I was stopped out of my TBT at 36.33. Waiting for a re-entry point. I'm still holding my $120 puts on TLT that expire tomorrow. I have mentally written them down to $0.
SLW
Below $5.45 USD.
waiting for market close to give signal
if we head south into the market close for the miners then im looking at
a short term dump here over the next few sessions.
if we can finish reasonably intact this day of carnage may be a distant memory as gold bounces around $850-860 before deciding where to go next.
$900 would be nice!!! but hte USD just exploded higher along w/ bonds,
lets see if this move has legs.
Re: TSE:MBT
MBT is a pay daddy stock, Kevin Oleary I have tracked it, but due to BCE the telecom sector is down, I will pick it up by friday. for the dividend
30 year Treasury future
Anyone know the last trading day of the front month contract? Is it tomorrow? If so, I wonder if short covering or something is responsible for the run up?
The jaws of death
seem to be shutting down (see my yesterday's post), and the "orderly bankruptcy" for automakers adds more uncertainty to the situation, so I sold 1/3 of my SWC a little while ago at $4.66.
TLT/TBT
As I had suspected yesterday, TLT is getting an extra boost from the falling market. However, when the current cautiously-optimistic market mood will change to the pessimistic mood once again, THAT might be the time to start scaling into TBT.
Re: The jaws of death
Last time I saw the vertical ascend of TLT was mid 2003, and as we know, that was the time to be in stocks and out of $, even though everyone was worried about deflation. Incidentally, that was the last time RSI(14) was over 80 (besides now).
So basically, what we are seeing now, is the dumb money accepting and embracing deflation. We saw the opposite earlier this year with blow up with gold and oil when dumb money only knew inflation (but Bill was warning about the top).
The tricky part is to time the top as the top of oil bubble was very hard to trade (at least to me, gold was a bit easier).
Now, if Bill is saying now is the time for TOG, I will believe him.
Re: The jaws of death
right..so puts on tlt or tbt would have been the right choice.
ok back in yamana
ok back in yamana
Re: ok back in yamana
Why is it so cyclical?
Re: GS
Do you recall that when somebody here remarked that Henry Paulson only paid a small amount for taxes in 2005 or 2006, I followed up by saying that, if true, somebody had better call the IRS because there would be a serious problem there. I have no doubt that this story, when the truth is fully outed, will sicken the average American. I hope you all show outrage. Paulson should be the poster boy for that outrage.
SLW
Now that I sold all my SLW June 2.50 calls yesterday and the day before for a 120-150% gain, I have generated some cash to buy SLW shares. Buying shares today is obviously too soon after a multi-day monster move. Selling $5 January puts now for 0.65 would either lock in a 150% annual return if the put expires or allow one to buy SLW for $4.35 NOW. However, tomorrow one should be able to sell the $5 put for even more money.
I have just placed a buy limit order for 500 shares of SLW at $4.5, in case SLW has a spike down tomorrow before I wake up and then starts going up. If I see that SLW is down again tomorrow at 11am PST, then I'll sell some $5 puts on it.
WGW
Placing a buy limit order for 2000 shares at $1.25, to replace the shares I sold a couple of days ago at $1.45.
GRS anomaly ?
Most of the gold stocks are down 7+% and GRS is up 4.8%. Can anyone explain this anomaly ? The volume is pretty low.
SLW Fib retracements = $5.29, 4.77, 4.25 usd
SLW Fib retracements = $5.29, 4.77, 4.25 usd
And i also feel there is heavy support at $3.60.
Let me know if my fib's are wrong.
Oil falling knife
As falling knives go, oil seems like a good candidate. The risk/reward looks favorable in this range. Would prefer the stocks to etf.
The stocks, however, have not really moved in unison with the oil price. Perhaps in a week or two the stocks will be more favorable. The action should be interesting nonetheless.
Re: GS
Bill, you certainly do have the ear of some important people and im sure that you have expressed your opinions on the markets as a whole. IMHO, i believe that the new administration must restore the confidence in the markets, all who have profited, one scandal after another must be brought to justice.
Just got my first shot of synvisc in the first knee, the replacements will have to wait as i am too young, :), and am now easing the pain with vecchia romagna in espresso, thanks to all who have cared to write.
How much?
I wonder....how much Hank "Madoff" with?
Re: Oil falling knife
Looks like a gap needs to fill here. If it continues this steep descent, I might pick some up in the 32 or 33 range for a bounce. Missed the big down move today no thanks to lunch so just waiting for a set up...
KC
Re: risk
I didn't say a top. I said risk was increasing.
TBT
capitulation. RSI 7 day <10
DISH
bought DISH at 11.19
Re: TBT
couldn't agree more and believe we will be rewarded. i'm probably going to re-enter the TBT trade if it trades back above 36.50
PFIN
Anyone tracking PFIN.
Paulson's stock sale of $492 mil was tax free
Paulson files to sell $500 mln of Goldman stock
http://tinyurl.com/4ucbze
By Steve Gelsi, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:12 p.m. EDT June 30, 2006 NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Former Goldman Sachs CEO Henry Paulson filed to sell about $500 million worth of Goldman Sachs stock late Thursday shortly after the U.S. Senate voted to confirm his appointment as U.S. Treasury Secretary.
Paulson filed to sell 3.23 million shares in a shelf offering of Goldman Sachs stock according to a prospectus filed with regulators. Based on the bank's closing price of $152.50 on Thursday, the stock is worth about $492 million.
The banking chieftain is unloading the shares to adhere to conflict-of-interest rules.
In addition to the 3.2 million shares, Paulson also owns restricted stock units representing 494,054 shares of common stock, all of which are vested and deliverable. Based on Goldman Sachs' closing price of $152.50 on Thursday, the restricted units are worth about $75 million.
He also owns options to purchase 680,474 shares of common stock, all of which are exercisable.
Paulson's common stock, together with the shares of common stock underlying the restricted stock units and options represent approximately 1.02% of the outstanding shares of common stock of Goldman Sachs.
Paulson became chairman and chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs in May 1999, $35 million in salary including cash and stock options in 2005.
Interestingly, under U.S. government ethics rules, while Paulson is required to sell the shares, he is also exempt from paying taxes on any capital gains on the sale if he obtains a certificate of divestiture. The rule granting the exemption is designed to make sure prospective government employees who own a lot of stock are not dissuaded from joining the government.
Earlier this week, the Economist magazine estimated the rule eliminate a tax liability of up to about $200 million for Paulson.
As a result, Paulson, and others in the same position, are able to sell shares have the funds reinvested in more diverse holding, and will only be subject to taxes on the capital gain when and if they are later realized.
Tapped by President Bush in May to succeed Treasury Secretary John Snow, the 60-year-old Paulson joins a long line of Goldman executives who have left the firm in recent years for public service. Read profile of Paulson
Paulson, who joined Goldman in 1974, is following the path of former Goldman CEO Robert Rubin, who was Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton.
Other recent Goldman Sachs executives now in high-profile jobs include New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine and John Thain, a former Goldman Sachs operations chief who now heads up the New York Stock Exchange.
Current White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolton was working at Goldman before being tapped as policy director for President Bush's 2000 campaign.
Shares of Goldman Sachs fell $1.09 to $151.11 on Friday.
Steve Gelsi is a reporter for MarketWatch in New York.
Paulson's income tax
Bill,
If I remember correctly, Hank Paulson saved $100 million on capital gains taxes when he left GS for the Treasury.
There is a law which benefits someone who leaves private industry and takes a federal job.
I found the following in a Goggle search.
"Paulson sold his 3.23 million shares in Goldman, worth about $500 million at the time, when he took the Treasury job, according to regulatory filings. He was exempted from paying capital gains tax on the sale of those stakes under a rule meant to avoid penalizing wealthy people who take government jobs and are forced to sell assets.
Paulson also sold about $25 million of holdings in a Goldman fund whose sole asset was a stake in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the world's largest publicly traded financial institution. The bank raised $22 billion in its initial public offering in October 2006, the world's biggest IPO.
Re: Paulson's stock sale of $492 mil was tax free
Talk about ethics rule that created the $200 million conflict of interest that will end up costing the world $200 trillion when all dust settles down.
This is a glimpse how things work under a disguise of democracy and fairness.
Let the little guy pick up the IRS bill.
I feel there will be a huge backlash against GS at the end.
One thing is sure though, Paulson is one very smart crook.
That rule may be well-intentioned but serves basically as a loophole for rich people to sell tax-free.
RIMM up 10%
after hours...
Re: RIMM up 10%
it's back down to about up 2.5% or so. decent earnings.
Last Friday’s Ice storm knock
Last Friday’s Ice storm knock power down in half of N.H and many community in MA.
Some are still without power. This Wednesday night storm dump 4 inch of snow and 12 inch of snow coming starting tomorrow afternoon. 8 inch more will come in Sunday. Winter official has not started yet. Look like it is going to be some kind of winter
Re: Paulson's stock sale of $492 mil was tax free
The stated mission of the Treasury Department (from Wiki):
"The Treasury Department is the executive agency responsible for promoting economic prosperity and ensuring the financial security of the United States."
I for one would prefer that no one with $492 million dollars EVER be put in charge of "promoting economic prosperity and ensuring financial security" for me or my family. I am sure there are some great multi-millionaires out there - sorry Gates and Buffet - but the only interest I have in you looking out for me is if I buy your companies' stock.
Paulson is just a reflection of the immorality that has run rampant in federal politics. As long as markets were "going up" every politician was just peachy to declare that all was well!
Re: How much?
"I wonder....how much Hank "Madoff" with?"
No telling, but I'll be dancing in the streets when he gets his Ascot too.
"YORK (Reuters) - The New York Law School on Tuesday sued investment firm Ascot Partners LP, its general partner J. Ezra Merkin and auditor BDO Seidman LLP over investments with Bernard Madoff, the man accused last week of one of Wall Street's biggest frauds."
http://tinyurl.com/4swwm9
After Hours
A huge gap up after hours, too bad I wasn't around to buy today.
RIMM
5:00 pm conference call in progress....waiting for reaction.
SLW
I still see buying opportunities coming in the 3.60 to 4.15 CDN range...2.92 to 3.55 USD range. This should be a test of support in this area and if it holds then it can start its next leg up.
ACI
Placing a buy limit order at $15 for 200 shares of ACI. I want to *gradually* build up a position in it for the next economic recovery. If ACI drops below $14, then I'll sell January $12.50 puts on it for 1000 shares (at that point the puts should cost more than $1.25, giving me a good average cost basis if the shares are put to me, or giving a 120% annualized gain from this transaction if the puts expire).
More 3X ETFfor Bull
More 3X ETF
for Bull dZK/EDC/TYH and for Bear DPK/EDZ/TYP
Re: SLW
I hope you are wrong. But i dont think we will see 2.92 to 3.55 USD, unless the dollar rockets up on macro issues.
The immense buying volume is telling me A) some development is going on outside of just the base metal correlation. B) the dips are in line with Fib retracements and show healthy profit taking.
But me = novice. If we see 2.92 to 3.55 USD, I would expect put prem to rocket up and i would be selling puts to bank the premium and hoping they are executed.
At least that is the bedtime story that helps me sleep at night :)
"Natural Gas and Crude Part Ways"
That was the headline of a WSJ article of Aug 27 but it's less true today. I can show you some numbers after you read the Free Preview of the article which I saved. To wit:
"By several measures, natural gas looks awfully cheap compared with crude oil.
In the U.S., natural-gas futures trade at the steepest discount to crude oil in the past 18 years, according to CIBC World Markets. Crude closed Tuesday at $116.27 a barrel, or $20.05 per million BTUs on an energy-equivalent basis, while gas settled at $8.278 per million BTUs, or 41% of the price of oil.
With storage levels only slightly above a five-year average, "gas should be typically trading at the 60-70% level," said James Williams, an energy economist at WTRG Economics."
That was then and there was money to be made in a spread of buying UNG and selling USO or, even better, buying DTO (2X short crude). I have been following the ratio of gas to crude by following the ratio of UNG to USO, since late August. Amazingly it was the same as the BTU ratio reported by the WSJ in August. (Were these two ETFs originally priced on an energy equivalent basis?) Today that spread is 71% of the price of oil, about in line with the top of the 5 year average.
What does it mean for the future? I don't know but I can tell you if you used XOM as a proxy for UNG for the last 3 months, you would have done even better plus had a dividend. Exxon seems impervious to the price of crude and NG for the last two months, except for today.
FD: I own COP and MRO but not XOM (drat that.) No USO, DTO or UNG since I got burned by gas.
Re: SLW
NYUGrad, I sincerely hope to see SLW below $3 with silver above $9/oz. That would be a great buying opportunity for SLW. Since I don't doubt the long-term story for SLW, any pullback is a welcome opportunity to make some extra trading gains. So I really hope that my buy limit order for 500 shares gets hit tomorrow at $4.75 (I have moved it up a bit based on your Fib retracement levels -- thanks for posting them!). If I see SLW under $5 when I wake up tomorrow, then I'll sell some $5 puts on it, which will hopefully cost more than $1 at that point. If I see SLW under $3.50 at some point, I'll sell some $2.50 puts on it.
good news for TBT holders
Yen reversed today and lost over 2%. Unless this is a one day fluke, the bonds should go down. The correlation is very strong.
Re: good news for TBT holders
Thanks for that info. Am looking forward to the weakening of $ & TLT, unfortunately.
Quiet Tonight,
Suprising, given that tommorow is options expiry date. What's everyone looking at? I was heartened to see strength in HYG today:
http://tinyurl.com/3g83lc
And Municipal Bond Funds, like:
http://tinyurl.com/48dpkp
These are encouraging signs; a return to risk. Not really a suprise given the paultry returns treasuries are offering.
It won't be long before other downtrodden classes are in vogue. In particular, Oil's action today is looking like silly capitualtion:
http://tinyurl.com/3u33cc
Today both the OEX and VIX
Today both the OEX and VIX were red. VIX and the OEX cannot be the same color and it is rare. When this happens there is something wrong. If the VIX has been correct than tomorrow should be green day for OEX.
My take for tomorrow $USD
My take for tomorrow
$USD will go up, gold down, oil down, market will go up
Will gamble with OEX call that is going to expire at end of the day
Re: good news for TBT holders
"Yen reversed today and lost over 2%"
Could you explain the relationship between a weakening Yen (strengthing USD) and Treasury yields? I would have thought that a rising dollar would attract purchases of Treasuries (as more Yen can be bought back at a future date) thereby lowering the yield (which is bad for TBT).
MBT
jrinbc,
I have made previous posts which have been very bullish on MBT and after their recent announcements of solid performance I see no reason to walk away. I am long MBT and will add if it should see $30. In the meantime, I will enjoy the dividend and buy some time. The only reason I can see for weakness is the fact that Manitoba itself is the source of most revenue and recent news re falling real estate ( Manitoba has had a substantial run up in values and is historically a low-price real estate market ) may be a precursor to lower economic activity in the province which will somehow translate into lower telecom performance..... just a guess. Even if they should slash the dividend in half - I'll still appreciate the 5% yield!
refiners
crack spread is inversely up as oil is down, its doubled in three days, for those who chickened out on dug and dto like i did thinking oil would base at $85 this might be a play as I just know driving will increase as gas is close to $1.50.
FORD
ALOHA !!
Today I fielded a call from one of my regular customers who has been buying flowers from us for some ten years now. She is an older lady in her late 70's and lives in Malibu, CA. Today she told me that back in the early 1950s she bought her home there for $17,500USD. Its probably worth 1000 times more now! So much for deflation!
We talked about the economy a bit and she got onto the subject of FORD(F:NYSE). She told me she has bought FORD cars over the past fifty years but she announced that this was her last FORD car and she was switching to TOYOTA. Why? Well, we talked about the BAILOUT and the management of the BIG 3 but I told her I thought the only thing missing from all this financial debate was a PRODUCT!!! Without a PRODUCT that consumers want to purchase you can spend $1tril on the BIG 3 and they will never survive. That is when she mentioned the SERVICE side and that was why she was dumping FORD after fifty years! She had transmission problems within her warranty period and FORD fought her about it and ended up only paying for 1/3 of the cost for a new transmission. Well, that so irked her that she printed up 1500 flyers bad mouthing FORD and she put those flyers on parked cars at various grocery stores and malls around her neighborhood. Her anger was palpable over the phone. Nothing loses customers faster than lousy service. Now FORD has lost a fifty year customer on one transmission. How many other stories are there like this out there? Isn't this the real reason the BIG 3 are begging US TAXPAYERS for help? Yet there is no mention of this aspect in the BAILOUT debate.
So we already know the BIG 3 don't have the sales to be profitable and that is because they do not have a decent PRODUCT and SERVICE to sell, otherwise why would they need to be BAILED OUT? It is as simple as that. Can the US CONgress legislate a great PRODUCT? NO ... Can TARP provide a great PRODUCT? NO ... Can George Bush create a great PRODUCT? NO ...
Somehow TOYOTA and HONDA produce great PRODUCTS and the consumers are voting with their dollars. As I have pointed out before I bought a TOYOTA truck because of its "resale" value. The US government cannot change consumer sentiment. They cannot change a lousy product to a great product by legislating.
It is like everything else that is wrong with the USA today. Not even a US Peso is a great PRODUCT. Fiat and this "floating currency" concept has had its day! FOREX just like COMEX is a gambling casino. That is all this fiat monetary system is ... one BIG CASINO! Is that anything worth basing a business or your child's future on? Everyone's future is built upon constantly shifting monetary sands!
IT ALL WORKS ...
THE BAG LADY PAPERS
ALOHA !!
The Bernard Madoff affair has real life repercussions. So does the loss of Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros and the countless other banks that have gone under over the past year. The difference though is that the Madoff affair has hit the rich New York insiders and not the Middle Class outsiders.
Here is the real life dilemma of ALEXANDRA PENNEY of the BAG LADY PAPERS.
Link: http://tinyurl.com/6fecgw
$50bil or $17bil or whatever the "real" number is it has caused real human tragedy. Call it the SEC's fault of whatever "social inequity" you care to conjure, but for me it is all about the FIAT. In heaven, surely, LEVERAGE must be a great sin!
Welcome to the real world bag lady!
Re madoff
stunning if this is true,how could the sec miss him?
http://online.wsj.com/documents/Madoff_SECdocs_200...
just ranting
Kaimu,
How right you are. I hate that company. Why? Because at one time I thought the patriotic thing to do was buy Fords instead of Toyotas. Having a choice between a Ford Club wagon and a Toyota Landcruiser, I stupidly bought the Ford--and that after an absolutely dismal experience with a new Aerostar. (OK, stop cackling, Ford execs!) At that time there were many experts claiming that American cars were being built to the same high standards as Japanese cars, the manufacturers having figured out that consumers wanted quality--as if Americans were Swedes--Ha! fat chance! Actually, we just got slogans, such as "Quality is Job 1". I figure I lost at least $60,000 buying new Fords. My impression is that they do everything they can to economize production, including such things as thinner coil springs encased in plastic, so that if the plastic cracks, the spring fails (my Aerostar-I backed into a snowbank). I came to believe that I really bought a maintainance money pit with wheels. Later I was thinking about buying a Volvo, but when I learned that Ford owned that company, I bought a Saab instead (GM instead of Ford--the Saab has been a money pit as well). Have you seen the book "Gotcha Capitalism"? In addition to getting rid of the Fed, wouldn't it be nice if we could also stop getting bilked and cheated on every side by telephone companies, credit card issuers, car manufacturers, HMO's, banks, ad nauseam? We are all slack-jawed patsies as far as those predators are concerned. Thinner coil springs encased in plastic, that's American capitalism! Why don't we just stick to exporting Britney Spears videos to Muslim countries...
Re: Re madoff
ALOHA !!
tbar ... Yep this report came out in 2005 and the hedge funds went under SEC rules in 2006 so obviously the SEC was asleep at the wheel. Look at the major entities involved with Madoff back in 2005! I wonder if those hedge funds got out in time? Probably not!
This guy actually thought by Feb 2006 the SEC would scrutinize Madoff. Apparently if you are the co-founder of the NASDAQ you get a pass at the SEC!! The Middle Class and the US TAXPAYER have always been expendable ...
This all just adds to the velocity that is building for the "C WORD" with relation to US markets and the US Peso(aka:US DEBT). How much FRAUD can the USA dish out without suffering some serious BLOW BACK from the rest of the World, including the US TAXPAYER.
FIAT money creates diminished morals ... which is the same as saying lack of a long term "store of value" causes moral decay and leads to social unrest. If money becomes worthless then what good is your life's work and your accumulated savings and assets? Corrupt money makes a corrupt society!
BEN are you reading this?
Re: just ranting
ALOHA !!
Yeah ... as an American I bought Ford and Chevy as well, but I also bought VW and FIAT and TOYOTA. I have never owned a HONDA car though, but I do have a HONDA motor on my generator and sprayers and I do own two HONDA RUCKUS! Give me a better PRODUCT than TOYOTA puts out and I'll BUY AMERICAN again!
As an American I am always feeling like I am running a gauntlet of government regulations and taxes and bank financial fees and charges and interest rates that are just there to thieve as much of my hard-earned money as possible.
There is no reason on this Earth why banks should get even 9% credit card rates, especially since their customers are BAILING them out!
Eliminate the US FED and the member banks who are the middlemen. We workers create the wealth, it is our money, so why does the US FED and its banks have the right to charge interest? Have the US Treasury issue the money and eliminate the middlemen and their exorbitant interest rates. The US government and the US Treasury belong to WE THE PEOPLE and not the other way around. WE THE PEOPLE own the money not the US FED and not JP MORGAN CHASE! There should be no interest charged. The US Treasury operates on tax receipts only just like the US government. If tax receipts do not cover government costs then government and its spending needs to shrink not WE THE PEOPLE!
This concept that WE THE PEOPLE owe our government is a total fraud. If the US government created the wealth then I would have a different opinion! Our Founding Fathers would have strung up this current CONgress for tyranny a long time ago! How else can you describe what you see on TV every day other than out and out TYRANNY? I can read the US Constitution, the Declaration Of Independence and the Bill Of Rights, so lets call it what it really it is!
TYRANNY ...
As they say in the venerable institution known as AA(Alcoholics Anonymous) ...
ALL OUR BEST THINKING GOT US HERE !!
Re: good news for TBT holders
It may not make sense but works. Compare yen and bonds. Both short term and long term. The correlation is striking. Someone more experienced in FOREX may want to chime in. To me, Yen should be good to short too.
Re: Re madoff
Kaimu, yes I see he mentions that he 1st brought it to their attention in 1999.Incredible but not surprising.
Oil sure is not making much sense?
Re: Ford
The average unhappy customer/voter tells another seven people of their dissatisfaction. The tranny lady is REALLY pissed.
I've owned fords for a while, an 86 Club Wagon that I put over 400K, an 84' Ranger (POS) that is the little truck that IMO, opened the door for Toyota, and newest truck a 99 F250 super duty that so far is following in the tiretracks of the Club Wagon....which is good.
I have the good fortune to travel and rent cars. I rented an Astro van once and worried RAIN would dent it. We also looked at a Focus and I can say I've seen Japanese beer cans with more structural integrity.
So they make some decent vehicles and some total junk.
They may not make much of anything soon.
Ultra ETFs
The bear 3X's just broke through intraday support. We should get a retest of that as resistance rather soon.
The bearish divergences on TLT remains extreme. Showing up on every timeframe through the daily. But it won't break down. I have a feeling it's gonna be spectacular when it finally does.
Update: Well, TZA is following a nice little trendline down on the 1 minute chart. That's your resistance.
And TLT is the ETF that just refuses to die. ;)