Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Mon., Mar. 2, 2009

I want to buy when people are selling on fear right?

GG in the $26s. SLW broke down and i will be putting in some stink bids.

Put in a stop order this morning half hour after market open, under the mornings low, and got stopped out of this today. Bummer. I'll probably regret it, but too many times I've caught a knife expecting a bounce and she just kept on diving...

Lovely trend-day going on in SRS. Responding well to the CCI indicator (-200 has been a nice low-risk entry on the 1-min chart (looking at multiple time frames for entry tho). SRS also tends to respect the EMA20. One of my goals for the year is to get better at identifying and catching trend days.

I don't know who is keeping POG down today but whoever they are, they must have lots of moola.

I have one thumb down.

vinod/David/Craig/Mark- May do little good to post this now, but I cashed out the trading half of the portfolio at the open. And thinking about doing the same to the buy-and-hold half. Why? Talked things over with my better half last night-> we are sitting at May 2005 levels right now. May 2005 is significant in that we reached a threshold of sorts in our portfolio value, one which we are unwilling to sink below.

I'm constantly hearing about forced selling as hedge funds continue to liquidate. Why am I not hearing, and seeing in the market, any evidence of forced covering? It stands to reason that more hedge funds have been and continue to be short rather than long. Am I missing something?

I can't believe what we're seeing. It feels like it will never end...

Dude it's only just beginning

Possible interim bounce point preparatory to eventual decline to 660 or below (440?). Not advice. DYODD.

that we bounce off the 7 levels a couple of times before we slice through.

QT- We're trying to avoid the past tense of that word.

I Capitulated my Long term 10% equity position. I am 100% cash. My losses were not bad, I just got tired of looking at this market. Now a days if i don't like a movie I leave. Buy and hold is dead for Bobbyo.

don't like intra-day trading. stupid swiss broker eats up the small gains. bought slw @ 5.98, sold @ 6.35, lost 1 dollar on the trade. Go figure.

still havn't the 10G to move to IB...

... Monkey is in order, just about now!

Watching 3 stocks today on my day off: FIX, SRE, and UHS (what a bloodbath in health care)

support was breached and is now resistance. Hoping that the S&P recovers and goes through resistance and on to a significant rally at this point is just that, hope. I think the prudent action now is to plan around S&P visiting its next support, but look at a 50 year chart and tell me where that might be?

I see a tiny bit of support at 670-680 from July '96 and after that 470 from summer '94. If you run trend lines and do the colin twiggs calculation for a plunge (740 - (940-740/2)) you could maybe hope for some support around 640.

FED'S LACKER: PROPOSES TREASURY TAKEOVER OF EMERGENCY LENDING PROGRAMS FROM THE FED, BELIEVES THE FED'S CREDIT ACTIONS CAUSE MORAL HAZARD
- Have made use of Fed's balance sheet as path of least resistance because it bypasses Congress.
- Bypassing congressional approval exposes monetary policy to political pressure.
- Should not be difficult to transfer Fed lending to Treasury's books.
- Warns that government intervention adds to market uncertainty.

more details:

Richmond Fed President Lacker to speak in Washington, D.C. March 2, 2009
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey M. Lacker will speak at the 2009 Washington Economic Policy Conference of the National Association for Business Economics.

Event Details
Topic: Government Lending and Monetary Policy
When: March 2, 2009
Where: Key Bridge Marriott Hotel Capital View Ballroom
1401 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA 22209
Please contact hotel at least 48 hours in advance to discuss equipment and broadcast needs.

Hotel Contact: Alaina Austria, 703.284.1469

Media
The luncheon starts at noon. President Lacker speaks at 12:45 p.m. Audience Q&A follows.

Separate media Q&A.
Note: No live broadcast and/or audio feeds permitted during media Q&A. (Tape recorders are allowed for reporter's accuracy only.)

Speech Text
Laura Fortunato, FRB-Media Relations, will be on site and will distribute embargoed(?) speech text at least 30 minutes in advance.

Media Contacts
Laura Fortunato
FRB-Richmond, Media Relations
(804) 697-8196

Melissa Golding, Press Officer
National Association for Business Economics
Mobile: 571.236.2820

edit: seems embargoed means cannot report on until after speech is given

Is that the sign of a bottom? 3% of people cashing out? 74% maintaining or increasing stock exposure? My guess is no. Still too much hope. I feel bad for people letting advisors manage their portfolios into the ground, and people buy and holding for the long term, now just sticking their heads in the sand.

If it wasn't for this site, I might have been right there with them...

2nd
I am 100% in cash, will not buy anything. But losing very big in IRA and 401k. Which have fidelity mutual fund and some stocks
Yes, I am concern. My trading account is not important but IRA and 401k is.
Not watching market. I don’t know what to say?

Boy oil is just getting hammered. Down $4.63 today. Just when you think it's safe to get back into energy...gave back 2/3 of what it gained last week.

I'm with you pp...I think we're on the way to the low 600's. To that end only 10% invested. Of course I could be wrong...hope I am. But not betting on it.
S

proudPapa
I agree with you. That is the reason I am 100% in cash.
But will keep eye open. Do not want to miss rally when it happens
I will listen to all but will make my own decision

i think it's safe to say that the equity markets have not been as bad as things are for this entire period. the bond markets fully reflect how things are in my mind. there were major dislocations in the bond markets a while ago and the equity markets were only down some 10-20% for a while. the equity markets have caught up and are probably somewhat close to truly reflecting reality. however, take a look at the spreads on commercial MBS and AAA corporate bonds and you can make an argument that the equity on many of these companies should be $0.

it's pretty clear we're heading into a depression. only semantics (i.e., governments fudging with numbers) may allow us to skirt a classically defined depression.

Enough with knife catching, I'm participating as spectator from this point forward.

Excellent job Pierre, good reading on a decidedly crappy day in the markets.

"oh Man,my friend's financial "adviser" bought BAC at $50 for his account, and double down at $46 again."

So is it possible your friend's financial adviser may have had some conflicts of interest and made profit only on moving a stock? Several months ago, BAC contacted me directly to sell me on their stock @ ~$25, I instinctively smelled the familiar scent of rat right through the telephone handset.

I don't believe this is representative of the majority of investors. I track the AAII asset allocations and equities are record low in low 40%'s comparable to that of 1990 and 2002-2003. It was as high as high 80%'s in 2000. Obviously the oversold can get more oversold, but this feels like panic selling and should be an intermediate low.

Computer records, maybe both medical files and a keychain USB memory chip?

My mom was taken to a Kaiser Hospital on an emergency.

They spent the next 24 hours trying to figure out this was a dimentia patient with the flu.

Spinal taps, hospitalization, endless stress on an old woman...all because they couldn't access data from other area hospitals and doctors.

LOTS of DANGER and WASTE. The down times are not a good excuse for th rampant waste from seperate hard files.

This could kill you and has killed lotos of others. Think allergies to various medicines, all the needless procedures to find out what is already known.

That's my practical experience.

ALOHA!!

For the past couple days I have been referring to Henry Hazlitt's book written in 1946 as "ECONOMICS 101" ... that was purely subliminal as I consider the book should be ECONOMICS 101 in every public school and university! I consider it ECONOMICS 101 and highly recommend reading it or re-reading it! Especially CHAPTER 17-Government Price Fixing and CHAPTER 22-The Mirage Of Inflation ... both of which we have been forced into by BIG GOVERNMENT who seems to be always expanding its stranglehold on anything that remotely shows any sign of being "FREE"(stock markets especially)!

The actual title of the book I am re-reading is "ECONOMICS IN ONE LESSON"!!

The very first sentence in CHAPTER ONE of THE LESSON, he wrote in 1946 was: "Economics is haunted by more fallacies than any other study known to man. This is no accident."

NO ACCIDENT indeed ...

My apologies to Henry Hazlitt for the error ...

The end of the story for Americans comes down to the simple truth ... "DO YOU KNOW WHERE YOUR MONEY IS?" When you hand off your hard-earned money to some stranger with a little "money manager" shingle on his wall what do you expect. Any time you ask others to create "wealth" for you while you sip margaritas you become the PT BARNUM motto about one being born every minute!

The hard reality that even BERNANKE needs schooled on ... DEBT DOES NOT EQUAL WEALTH! Oprah, are you listening? This is NOT the most wealthy Nation in the World! Every Nation is impoverished by FIAT!

IT IS WHAT IT IS ...

What, the selling? Just beginning? If this is the beginning of that, we're headed to Dow 23. Seriously, I've posed this question in the discourse before but I haven't seen an answer - perhaps everyone else is wondering the same thing? There's always an article on hedge funds that make it sound like there's more shorts on their books than longs. I think the question is a valid one, unless I'm misunderstanding something.

kaimu - "Any time you ask others to create "wealth" for you while you sip margaritas you become the PT BARNUM motto about one being born every minute!"

I may have been born at night, but I wasn't born last night!!! ;)

just bought some at 4.30 because it felt bad and goes against rationality.

Just remember bear market's last longer than anyone expects, valuations don't take presidence when technical's point down. There really hasn't been enough money lost yet. We haven't seen enough of the media screeming for Bernie's head, the last of his type hasn't been flushed out. In other word's you ain't seen nothing yet with this economy.

Something just occured to me, and maybe I'm being slow, but I'll share it anyhow.

Conventional wisdom is that market corrections are steep, dropping hard and fast, often bounce hard from lows and then slowly and steadily climb to new highs. I feel like people are still expecting the same behavior in the current market, i.e. a bounce and turnaround, followed by multi-week or month rally.

But this bear market is behaving more like an inverse of a regular market:
Corrections are steep to the upside, rising hard and fast, often bounce off the high and then dither down to new lows.

This seems evident even in todays intraday S&P chart where there are many little mini-rallies lasting 5-10 minutes, followed by a slow grind lower for the next 15-30 minutes.

If true, yes, could have fast rally, but it will be too short so once it is confirmed, most of gain is gone, and it will be close to reversing back to the downside, people buying on dips and getting screwed yet again...

David- Since you bring it up, I feel I need to clarify. I'm cashing out today (and in fact, I will probably cash out the buy-and-hold half as well) b/c the value of my portfolio has hit a psychologically important level for ME. I've always maintained (somewhere in the back of my mind), that I will not allow it to drop below X. It's basically at X, which I last saw in May of 2005. The other point is that I re-entered the buy-and-hold half the week of October 1 of last year, around DJIA 10,500. Cashing it out now at 6900 is a tolerable 'loss.' If I had not exited at 14,000/re-entered at 10,500 I may have an entirely different perspective on things.

Is that the ultimate buy signal?

Hard to know what to do short term. Both cases could be argued IMO.

I don't think using 2nd_ave as a capitulation point or to signify a bottom is a great idea. 2nd.I Have a lot of respect for you and appreciate all your posts. I know you don't need it but I wish you the best of luck.
Bob

One of my favorites Ron. Second the recommendation

too funny. but that's about how to play this market.

Took the escalator up and the elevator down... Not surprising, more like entertaining because it seems like someone's intentionally knocking it down. I'll buy more if they can show me really impressive lows.

There is an interesting summary of the Great Depression at the Northern Trust website. (This is one of the banks who have decided to return the bailout money.)

Paul Kasriel points out how the 1929 to 1938 crash was divided into two clear segments. I also found it interesting how similar current tax increases and other action mimics the first go-around. In addition he points out and documents the improvement which occurred prior to FDR's New Deal policies were implemented.

Let's hope we don't get another Smoot-Hawley type congressional tariff reaction.

--------------
February 09, 2009
The Great Depression - Just the Facts, Ma'am
http://tiny.cc/JimCg

Don't confuse the bottom for a bottom.

Make no mistake we are in a secular bear market that will have rallies and won't be over until 2012-2017.

That is the average time for CPI adjusted secular bear markets.

Buffet proved his ignorance by betting on what he said were weapons.

This market does need a bounce.
One I would like for about 5-8%.

Of the replay crash from October will continue and -300 is the new -500.

Not liking gold or real estate.

Folks what is going on with this site?

I been tring to pass a heads up to everyone.

**** Tonight we are suppose to drop and tomorrow we are gap down. So shower up at the Holiday Inn tonight because we continue our trip downwards to "you know where".

Will somebody please ring the bell when the Politicians leave our sandbox?

I'm 94% cash and still getting raped on the small positions that I do hold. A lot of talk about possible retracements off Dow and S&P500 - ok, but many of these S&P500 "bottoms" i.e. 660 level or Dow 6K have been continually revised downward. What I do not see is what will reverse this market...I mean, it could play out as a lower support around 6K Dow and then a rally higher before reversing again and making lower lows....on the other hand, it could just be straight down from here - ruthless plunge or brutal slow grind doesn't really matter at that point, 'coz we won't be coming back...

Also just looked at a chart of U.S. debt as a percent of GDP - in 1933, it was 299% which is a mountainous PEAK standing out from the period 1870 thru around 1980 - until we got to Q3 2008, when it reached 358% !!!

So you can read all about it, but when you see it on a chart, that is pretty sobering. What were they thinking?

Coincidentally 1933-1934 was also the period of the famous FDR decree of confiscating everyone's gold at 20 and then fixing the dollar at 35.

I always look thru to see what is making 52-week lows, and lately a lot of them, but I am no longer buying dips and selling rallies, as at this point I kind of prefer to do nothing but watch.

Sorry for the double post, please if one can be deleted.

Hey - I feel aweful about this market but it can stop us from playing the hand being delt.

Capitulation is near as hope slowly turns into fear (nowhere near dispair at all).
Fade out on longer rallies. Set stops manage risk.
Small bets only.

I don't know who is keeping POG down today but whoever they are, they must have lots of moola.

Something to consider-
http://www.gata.org/node/7208

What a shame. Failure to back up a hard drive is the height of ignorance (or laziness or discipline or all the above). Large scale businesses can afford to record data simultaneously on two or more drives in real time - no excuse for inability to service their customers - same with the library. I back up my daily files every evening and my entire computer every weekend. It's not a question of whether your HD will fail, it's only a question of when.

Hey

I feel bad about all of this, not fun but not going to stop me from making or trying to make a profit.

Capitulation is near as hope slightly turns into fear (no where near dispair, which is years out).
Fade the rally, set your stops. Small bets.
Oh. IMO Asia will not recover this year, do not bet on that as it is my third favorite short behind housing and gold asbof today.
Especially china.

All above are my opinions, do your own homework.

2nd - perhaps you are right and I am wrong. I admit that my crystal ball is pretty cloudy recently and my luck is lacking.

QT - "Will keep you up todate on this VOODOO Wave Elliott stuff."

Please do, sure makes everything else seem like DOODOO! :)

Brieanna, thank you. Since I own physical gold I should have known all about this, but didn't. As Fran6 once said of me, I am probably uneducable. Much appreciated.

Casey,

That, my friend, is some of the best advice that I have heard thus far.

peace!

vb

Korvus said: "It's become clear that we need more protection than your average blog..."

I felt this community was unique the first time I was introduced to it a year or so ago. Obviously our communtiy core values and goals fly in the face of some established thinking and could hurt some business models if these ideas gain more momentum. Korvus' comment tells me we are on the right track.

Many thanks to all who contribute to the blog behind the scene. You are doing one hell of a job. I thank you.

Bill, (if you catch this) please say hello to Gil when you meet!

Cheers

Shannon

Dow 20 year looks ugly....

Elliot Wave analysis sounds ominous....

I'm waiting for the press to start screaming...."President Obama are you listening!!". And the talking heads and media rubberstamps to begin stating how he can fix it or slow it by just "doing something". Cramer started in like that today. How does he stay on the air???

Can Washington "fix a problem" that is global and has been put off for a decade or more? SEC reform and the stuff Bill talks about will take men and women in DC who's balls are bigger than there re-election coffers.....we'll see if we got any of those in poser.

Someone said it here last week, "How does Sec Tim try to manage markets while 40 Trillion in debt unwinds?"

When Bill states that the banks and the politicians are slugging it out behind closed doors, it seems like a few more weeks like the last few and we'll see how solid the insides of Washington's (and the world's) leaders are......what will it take for a blow-up or massive revolt in Eastern Europe to catch fire????

My solution......personally, learn how to trade and protect capital....as far as this mess we face....let the banks fail, repeat the S&L scenario 20 years ago and try to manage the fall-out.....

I bought a small lot of SDS today after it sold a bit early am...did not enter a stop or a sell limit....wish I did, it may snap down tommorow....

nice to read you all today..........I'm still learning lots...i'd like to catch a snap up on FAS as shorts cover....waiting...what a time to start on the learning curve.......nutty

DB

I've been convinced by Bill on the arguement that gold is destine to go up....how and when is a giant lesson for me....

This mess does seem extremely complexed with all the "unknowns" and interdependancies.......it looks like a giant game of dominoes with somebody sticking their hands in from time to time stopping a section from speeding up ans running out of control.....like the "round numbers" hit today that you mentioned...

Was it something we said? I consider such an attack a very cowardly compliment of sorts.

Bail out the crooks, and force the working class into tent cities......Geithner says he needs to prop up AIG or the fall out will be catastrophic. Bull!
I say prove it! Let all the greedy corporations fail, and pass a law that punishes the crooks that reaped the extravagant windfall pay packages with immediate execution in hopes the bacteria induced gene that causes extreme greed in crooks is eliminated right along with typhoid, malaria ....

Posted by QT: "Most traders are expecting a gap down at tomorrow's opens."

Actually, as of right now the S&P futures are up 0.35%... Does the Elliot Wave theory adjust its predictions based on the announcements that the government makes of the new plans to revive the economy? I bet the stock market trajectory for 2010 would have been very different if no $787B fiscal stimulus plans were passed. And I bet additional monetary and fiscal measures will be announced this year.

Why would there be a gap down tomorrow? Given the huge wave of selling that happened today upon seeing that the November 20 low was broken, I think there is a far better chance of a gap up tomorrow, since those who were hesitating last Friday between selling on Monday or Tuesday have definitely sold on Monday (today). Whether tomorrow's gap up will result in an up day or in a down day is anyone's guess. I think the chances of a down close tomorrow are slightly higher, since those who are "almost" ready to sell now will probably wait to see whether tomorrow's gap up will develop into a real rally, and after seeing that stocks are not moving up (assuming that potential buyers, like myself, are not willing to stick their necks out until S&P hits 660), they will start selling the market down.

korvus - Thanks for looking out for us today, it's greatly appreciated!

One word korvus, 'nasty'.

I could have bought into this in the early stages, but I think the banks are on the ropes. As Bill has opined in the past, taking the market down to hard and they destroy their bread and butter: the gullible masses.

Well, the market has been taken down, the bread is getting stale and the butter is getting rancid. People will get more and more disenchanted. Not to mention making a 2% MER on a mutual fund or % of assets under management, when assets have been halved, make up a much smaller number.

HB&B are no angels, and I'm sure they pull a lot strings to the detriment to the public, but I think this bear market is well out of their hands at this point.

"it's much better to do the right thing with 200 shares than to trade like a moron with 2000, right?"

Well, as Bill says, there is time for everything. 100-200 shares is a training size for most stocks but for the most volatile ones. It takes you a step above paper trading as actual money is on the line, yet there is not as much pressure as to create all kinds of psychological aberrations. As confidence builds up, you increase your shares size, step by step, following the procedure of checks and balances described in the upcoming CTAB course. The procedure makes sure that you know when to increase the lot, how to make sure it's working, how much time to spend at each step... As with any other profession, it will work if you do it right.

"You can never make anything work. NO amount of wishing or hoping ever moved a stock."

Right on. It's an ocean. Wish all you want but either you read which way the currents go and get in the right one or you'll be taken in an undesirable direction. Mental command won't turn the current (sorry New Agers) - only getting in tune with the ebb and flow will take you to your destination.

2nd
I started plying and understanding market one year ago. My IRA and 401k has mutual fund which are same in over 10 years. I have not made any change to it except added few stock this year. In 2000 down turn I was down over 100k in these fund
And it is painful again. Do not want to make any change now. I do not have any bond fund in it or cash in it. There are millions out there like me who do not understand the market. My son just asked me “should I cut back my deduction in 401K, it going down every day”.

The seems to be some consensus on the uptick rule and mark to market... though, the administration is holding out on changing it for some reason. HB&B not done selling short yet, that's why. I don't know...

But when those issues are addressed I think that will create a short-term bottom. HB&B just have to give the ok on the changes...and the market will have a major bounce back...but that's after they get all they can by going short.

Thanks to all for your insights. Thanks Korvus for your monumental work today.

And...(not a but at all)...

I don't understand why we NEED to trade? Can someone tell me why? I understand if there is some compelling reason (like the "long run" crowd) but is anyone here in that boat? Perhaps there is, and for you I wish you wisdom and insight. Perhaps for the rest of us we don't. If so,isn't the prudent way to wait and see? So what if there's a 20% move up or down? Do we HAVE to catch it? This is hard earned money we're talking about--at least as long as it has come value shouldn't we take care to deploy it only when we believe we have a good chance at making something on it? Risk/reward. Aren't the risks very high right now? Seems to me never higher...so wouldn't just standing by and watching, reading, analyzing (as per Bill's criteria) be safer than trying to do something in the hopes we will succeed? As we all know hope is a useless investment vehicle.

Yes, I would love to make a pot full in a short time period. I'm not that smart to really know how. So I'll try to be patient---not a long suit in my arsenal for sure. But when I think of my kids and wife (who I assume will outlive me) I'd better be darn sure I'm increasing the odds in my/their favour.

Just some meandering thoughts from an old salt.
S
ps Who is reading this at 10:00 pm EST anyway? Get a life salty!

2nd- So that WAS you I ran into at the cashiers window early this morning. Took a 1.5% hit but saved about 6% from there. I did buy for my 7 year old at the close though. Only 50% of the planned allocation.
It's funny, I had the same heart to heart with my wife about 6 months ago and we fixed our X then. Now about X+5%. 95% cash now.
See you at the open, I put a coat on the seat to my RIGHT.
Seriously, man...Thanks for keeping an eye out for me. Maybe that's what this is really all about.
Best

"'Bad Bank' Funding Plan Starts to Get Fleshed Out"
http://tinyurl.com/bmnjda

"Obama considers funds to buy bad assets: report"
http://tinyurl.com/a9zgrz

Eventually all these fallen financials will rise on the backs of us the taxpayers. too many congressmen/senators/etc have their own wealth tied up in AIG, C, BAC etc.

Salty you are right you don't have to trade. Speaking in wall street language. If you did not trade the last month you would be beating all your BENCHMARKS. aS FAR AS risk/reward. The further the market goes down the better the risk/reward ratio will become in pure mathematical terms. That is why I and many others on the board use the oversold and overbought indicators. Bill's RSI triple screen is a good way to find a stock you might want to buy at a discount price.
Bob

Gold is indeed taking it on the chin right now. I would have to agree with Bill, however, about gold rallying once the equities start to rally, since the latter will weaken $USD's appeal as a safe haven and correspondingly help all commodities denominated in $USD. In the long term, once the economy begins to recover and the velocity of money will increase over the hugely increased monetary supply, inflation & gold will zoom. So I am not worried about gold now. In fact, if I see WGW below $1.60, I'll buy more of it.

S&P futures are up 1.32% right now. Could it be that the remaining "careful wise men" have capitulated today, and tomorrow's gap up will follow by a fast&furious rally that will leave all observers behind? I am placing a buy stop limit order on GROW now for 1000 shares (a small long-term position to which I will add on further weakness): stop at 3.56, limit at 3.6.

Obama buying assets will not save us... it is just another version of the same ol plan, Paulson's Tarp IDEA at the expense of tax payers.

For example - a business starts it's business by funding $100: 80 from debt 20 from equity.
We all know that assets and equity have gotten hammered, assets way more than equity across the board. THERE IS NO WAY the liabilities across the board can support the assets and equity prices. Our fearless knuckleheads on k, penn and wall street can't fix that by another fraud/con of tax payer money.

Elliot wave sequence.

We are in Primary 1 down of 5 total waves (these are big waves as Primary one started in October of 2007 (at the top). With in Primary 1 down we are in Wave 5 or we can say we are in wave 5 of primary 1.
Within in Wave 5 we are in minor 3 (this is a flexible count). Minor 3 has extended very far so far and is highly oversold (we know that).
minor 4 up is next and should form anyday now...
should take us up to fill in the gap of the around 725-735 and should extend farther up to 760-775 (at this point every pundit will be SCREAMING the bottom is in!!!!!!!!!! Remember that, or for once they could be wrong because this could be a bottom)
minor wave 5 (if it is fulfilled) will take us down to 600-675 in the SP and this will complete the wave sequence of Primary 1 (if and only if - IMO 780 is broken with confidence Primary 1 will be complete and we will be in Primary 2)
They say the turn from Primary 1 and start of primary 2 (600-675) could be very, very difficult to time or impossible, anything is possible with this market though.
Primary 2 will have an ABC structure/sequence. A UP, B DOWN - sidewades C UP. That will complete primary 2
Primary 3 will be a 5 count down structure (just like Primary 1).

Hope that helps... getting bullish is near but not yet, when/if you do turn bullish, baby steps... Fade the rallies and set stops.

This whole VOODOO is social mood and natural markets, add some sediment indicators, FIB lines and a few other TAs and you have an idea. Amazing stuff. R. Elliot was on to something and Prechter really made it slightly easier to understand.

I am a believer because of the fact is this.... Put one person in an area and you really can't predict them, put 1000 people in an area and it is more predictable. We are always acting like a market, IMO social mood drives markets.

Don't quit; as this bear market has much, much more to go but there will be great times to make losses back, gosh knows i am doing that and it isn't easy. Just be mindful that the credit/money/debt problem is much, much more complicated and bigger than we imagined. This is a Grand Super Cycle Crash that is similar to the WINTER part of a K-cycle, which could also fall in line with Von Mises theories too...

http://www.webtvhub.com/bankrupt-britain/

Watch videos...

Niall Ferguson, respected economic historian- second video is 5 minutes, worth watch.

After thinking some more, I figured that buying stocks now is a reckless thing to do for those who already have a sufficient long exposure and also some ultra-short shorts. Consider the following possibilities:

1. If the market rallies starting tomorrow for many days, then I will get to sell at a profit the stocks I purchased last week, so I won't feel like I had wasted any opportunities.
2. If the market stages a one-day rally tomorrow and then goes down the next day back to S&P 700, my portfolio will increase in value because ultra-shorts evaporate on fluctuations, so it will feel as if I had made a very well-timed trade of this one-day bounce. If S&P drops below 700 after tomorrow's bounce(assuming it lasts only one day), then I will act as in case 3 below.
3. If the market goes down tomorrow, then same very stocks I want to buy now can be purchased in 2 weeks at a great discount by selling March puts on them tomorrow.

So I am canceling my buy stop limit order on GROW for tomorrow.

ALOHA!!

For those of you who do not speak GERMAN the title of this post in English is BURNING CARS!!

In Germany those who have been displaced see their futures going nowhere, especially the youth. What to do with that rage and anger? Well, in Germany there are a lot of BURNING CARS, mainly the luxury cars of the rich, like Porsche and BMW and Mercedes. So many in fact that there is now a website that tracks these BURNING CARS. Most of them are burning in Berlin but as the map shows the burn radius is widening and has totally blacked out a large portion of the map! Every pin on the map shows the location where a luxury auto was burned.

BURNING CARS LINK: http://www.brennende-autos.de/

As Bernanke and OBAMA sit in their Ivory Towers begotten from their paths through the Ivy League universities of America there comes a time when we must ask just how long should we put up with the fraud that is now the US government and its US Dollar? For those who burn cars in Germany the time is now!

I have often thought that the elite powers-that-be wanted a black man in the White House just to buy them more time to confiscate wealth!

Seems the "paper shufflers" of the World have forgotten that they must also live among the newly downtrodden whose road to ruin was paved by the "new products" of HB&B's derivatives. No transparency and no regulation seems a lot like TARP and the IRAQ WAR, where the doors of government are slammed shut and behind those closed doors deals and compromises are made in private and WE THE PEOPLE only know the results of such meetings on the Evening News ... NO DEBATE ... NO SAY ... TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION! This is not the government we were entitled to in the Declaration Of Independence. It is our duty as WE THE PEOPLE to reclaim our rights and our freedoms under such tyranny.

Please read this passage I copied directly out of the Declaration Of Independence as it gives WE THE PEOPLE the absolute right to replace any despotic government that stands in the way of our pursuit of Life, Liberty and Happiness.

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. — Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world."END

"IT IS THE RIGHT OF THE PEOPLE TO ALTER OR TO ABOLISH IT AND TO INSTITUTE NEW GOVERNMENT ..."

I cannot envision that the government that now rules over us is anything but "a long train of abuses and usurpations ..." where "the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States" exists. What else do you call the past 90 years of abuses by the US FED and the US CONgress? What say did WE THE PEOPLE have in TARP 1 or 2? What DEBATE took place? What DEBATE took place over the IRAQ WAR? Overwhelmingly WE THE PEOPLE rallied against any BANK BAILOUTS, but our representatives did not obey the voice of the people.

That is TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESNTATION ... PERIOD! I have told my Hawaii Reps to start packing and I'll even throw their crap into a UHaul for them!! I consider them all LAME DUCKS!

The KING OF GREAT BRITAIN is back! Time for a TEA PARTY!

REP DEM GET RID OF 'EM!

Very interesting but can you show us some charts? I used to like the idea of EW but it kept changing its wave count so often I gave up on it.

Salty,
Do I take it that the 'old salt' means you are a sailor? If so, may your sails be full and trimmed to balance the helm!

You are right, Why trade? If your ambitions are longer term use longer term indicators. I trade shorter term indicators for entertainment but my serious money is in the longer term portfolio. In that one I will not go long until the total price bar is above the 50 week EMA and RSI(20) is above 50. I do not catch the early risers but get most of the long term trend. Obviously reverse this for going short on longer term downers like BAC where an entry around $50 and exit now would give you $45 profit.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/03/killer-bees.html

BeeGees
TD Differentials
Some interesting candle and PnF charts (UNG, AAPL, CME, DISCA, FCX, and more)
The Mamis-Meisler breadth oscillator in Dante's 7th level of hell
The Killer Bees

Good luck. We'll need it.

Ron

Hulbert: No where near. For what it's worth.

http://tinyurl.com/avgpzu

nemo,

A well documented picture of the collapse until 1932, but with a major remission before another less serious, but bad enough downer to 1938.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29468267

As the markets in 2009 are replying the 2008 script very well, what is the reason for that? Is this tax related selling? As the matter af fact, 2007's turning points were also alligned well with 2008 (march and summer low, may-june and end of september peaks, november low, etc). I can't help but notice that 2003 low was in march and McHugh observed trend reversals every march.

Quasi
Thanks... you were very helpful.

Your comments about burning cars really hit home. I went out this morning and torched my neighbors SLK. I did want to make a political statement so I left a copy of your above post taped to the garage door.

That is a good one. HA HA HA.
Did anyone see the ex CEO of AIG on tv this morning. he pretty much confirmed what Kaimu is saying in his posts. TARP money is being used to pay counter-parties (GS) at PAR on their credit obligations. THis is robbery, yet the american public does not seem to care. When is the Amer Public going to stop being rubes. Why doesn't the media do an expose. Very saddening.
Bob

Anyone else wondering if Madoff's wife Ruth can prove the source of her income to purchase that snazzy apartment and amass a few million dollars that is separate from Bernie's scheme?

Also, still looks like someone is attacking the site. It's sucking up lots of memory and affecting typing.....which is the point I suppose.

20% of allocation...

Just flipped some Yamana off the bottom.

Bank of Canada dropped interest rates today to 0.5%, the lowest ever.

In @ $13.22

2nd- As I sold @ the open yesterday, I thought to myself...Who is taking the other side of this trade?... My client called me at about 11:00 laughing and asking me how I liked the market. Believe me, he did. He plays X+3B.
Back in PXP @16.90
Edit: To be fair he is a really nice guy that I also consider a friend.

if they bought yesterday's close, it looks like they're taking profits now...

like clockwork,

almost too perfect of a drop right at the open.

USD has been looking toppy but continues to march upwards much to the irritation of many who insist the USD should go down and has been enjoying a bear market rally.... for about 8 months now...

lets face the fact that the USD will continue to shine as long as there is persistant instability in the market and bonds do not fall off a proverbial cliff.

for us gold bugs lets thank our lucky stars all this USD strength did not bring gold down, and that hopefully if and when the USD begins a correction, gold will benefit greatly. the question is, what does the USDX have to go down against?

if gold does not bounce back quickly from today's take down, then $880-$890 is not far behind, but id rather get it out of the way than just shuffle around. if the next move up is up and over $1000, then lets get moving. i dont think it will be as easy as people think. a move to test the old highs followed by a nice take down before resuming the uptrend would be too easy for gold. gold is never easy, hence the reason it is so hated by the mainstream.

and by "hated" i mean misunderstood.

Indeed Seamus, yet we are still off around 55% in the ASX. We have a lot of sheep over here. And I'm not refering to the type you eat!

Ok I will ask what in the heck is X+ 3B

LOL! So I take it you don'tthink she earned enough to justify the apartment and over $6 million?

WOW....looks like Ben said the wrong thing......look out below....

In @ 16.90 out at 17.40...still itchy as hell.

shark- Surely you jest. True atonement in her case would require a permanent "Wife Swap" with a Bhangi family in Northern India.

Bank of Nova Scotia is refusing to lend to hedge funds that short the Canadian banks. Is this the new wave?

IMO, it's just a matter of time until SEC bans all 2X and 3X ETFs (long and short) and all those inventions that are causing havoc in the market. SKF has already traded $700M today, XLF: 190M.

Dr. Cosa,

I was thinking yesterday the same thought, "What does the dollar have to be weak against?" I cannot think of any other measure. I can however think of a behavior. Those who buy USD. Can they prop it up for years until it serves their purpose?

I simply don't understand these issues nor the buying power of central banks and all the quote un quote "flight to safety" money.

The bet on Gold and against the USD would only make sense to this simpleton (me) as a long bet. Waiting out the forces that pound Gold down and prop currencies up until it no longer serves their purpose or they become ineffective (less effective) in their ability to manipulate the price.

In keeping with the new deflationary policies, CITI-GOV is considering to issue a new type of credit card where balances earn a small amount of interest.

CP- a small amount of interest is exactly what they will attract

MARCH 3 WSJ online By NORIHIKO SHIROUZU

BEIJING -- Geely Holding Group is likely to bid to acquire Ford Motor Co.'s Volvo unit, people familiar with the situation said, in what would be a bold attempt by a Chinese auto maker to expand internationally amid the global downturn.

Geely is expected to submit a bid for the Swedish car maker as soon as next week, two people familiar with the situation said. There are at least three other possible bidders, one of which is also a Chinese company, according to one of the people.

Ford and Geely have been talking about Volvo for several weeks, the two people said. According to one of those individuals, Geely Chairman Li Shufu met with senior Ford executives in Dearborn, Mich., where Ford is based, in mid-January, around the time of the Detroit auto show. Other representatives of the companies have held separate talks in recent weeks, the person said.

A person close to Ford acknowledged the Chinese company had been in talks with Ford for more than a year over a possible Volvo deal.

bobbyo,

"Why doesn't the media do an expose on this."

I would think 60 minutes would salivate at the thought of assigning one of their sharpies to expose something like how the TARP money is being used for paying counter party obligations. Instead we will probably see many stories on how the rip off artists already exposed live in luxury, and some poor factory worker who cannot make ends meet.

Maybe the media market guru's think "we the viewers" are not interested in those details?

That the Vermont Senator is asking Bernanke. I would love to rip Bernanke a couple of new ones myself. He reminds me of the time I beat the bananas out of David Shaywitz during recess all the way back in 2nd grade because he was such a human turd.

as is daily report

bought MIC too early. Up 30% today.

TIMING, TIMING, TIMING...