Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Mon., Feb. 9, 2009

http://solari.com/blog/?p=2058
http://www.dunwalke.com/introduction.htm
Follow up to Bryne and Mitchell and the pervasive corruption that seems to be at the core of finance and politics. Bill and community, thank you for highlighting how to sidestep the dangers of managing money.

Grym - "Do you understand just how the holdings listed for TBT are designed to work?"

My understanding of the TBT ETF is that it tracks the inverse of 20yr paper, opposite of TLT. Somewhere I may have the prospective (can't recall if I've bought TBT, now no position(because my play is gold) or it's available on their website:

http://www.proshares.com/funds/tbt.html

Take a look at Yahoo TLT/TBT performance comparison:

http://tinyurl.com/bvmls3

My belief is the Treasury will do their best to keep bond rates low, so expecting all manner of dirty tricks... or honesty?

The CTAB idea is catching on. Performance-based fees. Your account works around the clock.
A targeted goal of 10-20% return a year- how does that compare with the typical fund goal of merely beating a benchmark that went down 40% last year?

For individual traders, I would think the benchmark would be the annual CTAB performance in the category that matches your risk profile (Dynamic, Moderate, Conservative). If you can't come close, let them handle it.

London markets. LBMA. Physical sales depress prices. Central Banks have lots of gold to sell. Short of gold derivatives at risk. Two commercial banks hold the overwhelming majority of these derivatives. Commercial banks also probably hold the majority of interest rate swaps on sovereign debt.

The first two weeks of February sell-off. Options expiry for a new rally. Physical demand along with changes in currency markets, low interest rate regimes, sluggish oil price all contribute to support the gold market.

** I see this as an opportunity to buy more gold for a rainy day.**

vb

Dr. Cosa - agreed. I'm glad the POG is taking a breather so I can load up when it reaches the bottom of this trading channel. I will be selling mucho puts on GLD and GDX.

it's up premarket...is this just a short term move to secure the dividend?

It does look like SLW is ready for a breather ... the intraday as of Friday shows the MACD, STO and MAs on the 15 min start to roll over. That's usually a good time to protect gains, imho.

Of course, that's an easy call when the stock is poised to open over 1% lower in pre-market. ;)

I sold my TNA in pre-market. I usually come to regret these moves, but again I see the warnings in the intraday charts and I don't want to spoil what has turned out to be a good trade.

Now let's see how the morning sets up.

Forgot....sold UCO bought @ 9.68 for $10.30 this AM.

it just shot up 5%...

Today doesn't seem too bad. Observing Energy, it seems to move opposite the market lately...this confuses me.

Top of the morn sharkie! I love it when Pres. Obama gets on the stump to read his riot act. ;)

At the risk of being annoying I will continue my one man thread re: GE. Immelt is now an advisor/insider of the Obama economy team. The Obama stimulus/TARP is now extending itself to bad commercial real estate assets. GE is heavily invested in struggling commercial real estate. Connecting the dots...

sorry to hear about your mom. My prayers are with you and your family.

blue,
If only GE did not have a financial arm. They have a alternative energy arm. I think that it is just hard to own a stock overnight. Maybe the ATR is to small for a day trade in general. But then again maybe its "safe" at these levels. The dividend is another problem that could make this stock look like the BAC chart though. What do you think?

Best wishes to you and your Mom, Craig.

NYU- Stacking odds on a dice roll in the teens sometime this week...

Setting up for a perfect scalp isn't it?

Sadly he can do neither, not with the free-fall about to occur as a result of this MOAB full of about to be less valuable USD's. The Chinese can no more dump their UST's than the Fed and Treasury can avoid buying them, for nobody wants them right now.

The only change is what we all will have in our pockets that won't serve as tender for the fires that warm us.

Via Ritholtz, great long-term charts on how media always tell traders to do the WRONG thing: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/investing-via...

FRG (Fronteer) up 8% - after bidding to acquire the rest of cash-rich Aurora energy, and announcing good drilling results in Turkey and Nevada. Already cashed up (4 years of burn rate in the bank) and on the move acquistion and drilling -wise. Perhaps a viable formula for pre-production juniors?

BTW, don't chase FRG, and I'm not beating my chest. (Anybody who suggests they get more than 40% of their calls right is claiming a higher % than Buffett does!)

This list, once compiled will take it's rightful place in the pantheon of great historic lists.....Such as....

1)...French war heroes

2)...Perfect Tens who prefer to date dwarves

3)...Suspension bridges suitable for practicing high-dives

Any other ideas?

This stock is priced for bankruptcy now, stagnating this morning while its peers are moving higher. Something in Denmark is rotten.

Not getting too aggressive, and I'm buying the stock outright rather than using options. It is simply too cheap at this level and there is little premium in the options anyway.

Thanks. I swear that it wasn't there earlier. HKO

my buy order... oh well... will give it 4 - 5 days on consolidation.

McEwen takes control (53.7%)of Minera Andes, buying 121M shares at closing price C$0.33 on Feb 4. This takes care of the capital call on their 49% owned, producing high-grade gold/silver mine, pays off MacQuarie Bank, and leaves about $12M working capital.

MAI also has a major stake (along with Xtrata) in Los Azules, a huge copper deposit. Los Azules scoping study on pretax basis indicated a net present value (NPV) of $496-million and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 10.8 per cent (using $1.90 per pound copper, 8-per-cent discount rate).

disclosure: no position
DYODD

2nd, Vinod, added to CAF this AM on Twiggs reports and breakout above trading range/possible trend reversal with well defined stop.

It was with revulsion that I read Deep Capture over the weekend. Here's another missed opportunity to make the point that we're equal participants, and should play by the same rules:

The Latest from Steadyhand (Canada)

Going Soft on RIM

Posted: 07 Feb 2009 01:31 PM CST

By Tom Bradley

"The conduct at issue relates to stock options granting practices at RIM which, over a ten year period from December 1996 to July 2006 were inconsistent with the terms of RIM's stock option plan and with RIM's public disclosure."

- An excerpt from the settlement agreement between the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) and senior executives of Research in Motion (RIM) dated January 27th, 2009.

I love my Blackberry.

I think Research in Motion is a terrific company. I'm especially proud that it is Canadian and has not sold out to the foreign competition.

"Options were to be granted at an exercise price of not less than the closing price of RIM's common shares on the TSX on the last trading day preceding the date on which the grant of Options was approved."

I like the fact that the founders are reinvesting their wealth and energy in making Canada a better and more competitive country.

I own a good chunk of RIM stock through my holding in the Steadyhand Equity Fund.

"Balsillie, Lazaridis, Kavelman and Loberto engaged in the grant of Options, in which Option Backdating or Option Repricing occurred. The grant dates selected resulted in more favourable pricing for the Options or 'in the money' grants as described above. In many instances, the lowest share price in a period was chosen using hindsight in order to set the grant date and, therefore, the exercise price."

I am also highly conflicted when I read that these executives have settled with the Ontario Securities Commission on the charge of adjusting the price on options to their advantage.

I know they weren't the only ones doing it. There were others including some high profile players like Apple. There is always pressure to attract and keep top talent.

"Approximately 1,400 of 3,200 Option grants made by RIM during the Material
Time were made using Incorrect Dating Practices, many of which gave the recipient an undisclosed benefit that was not authorized or permitted by the Plan or the TSX Rules."

And I know that these guys are some of the best that Canada has to offer. We need and want them to lead us to a higher place on the global business stage.

But...

Their actions were criminal. They displayed a total disregard for the public shareholders of RIM. They knowingly diluted the interests of their fellow shareholders - shareholders that paid real money (they were not granted free options) and took all the risk that goes with owning shares in a technology company. The executives and board betrayed their trust.

All of which leads me to conclude that they got off easy. They committed a crime, and yet all they have to do is make up for the damage they caused and pay some legal bills. None of them will feel the penalties in the least. In no meaningful way will they be restricted from carrying on business. And they won't be serving jail time.

Once again, we've gone soft on white collar crime.

What was your take on HK? Do you think they will do a secondary offering with the stock price above 20?

Maybe going to pop on this news? No activity yet though it's in the accumulation zone (Took a big hit last week).

"SRA wins $200M task order
The Fairfax-based technology firm (NYSE: SRX) will help the U.S. European Command and U.S. Africa Command maintain ready forces and enhance security for global operations."

http://washington.bizjournals.com/washington/stori...

David, it would appear that you are correct (RE: post of Wed, 02/04/2009 - 14:48 #10247). UCO has traded up since 2/6. Although at the moment WTI & UCO are coming back, UCO is still substantially UP from the 9 handle. Are you still confident (within DYDD) it plays out until 2/13 as your post mentioned?

I hope it is not anther NT

Hello, I'm still on the sidelines waiting for next payday... nail biting watching PM's creep up. 2 more weeks to wait.

VDE, a broad energy driller, producer & provisioner ETF might be worth a look at as opposed to USO et al.

LEs.

That's entirely possible Vinod but I'm running on the Shanghai chart (and money flow)and can't really guarantee Hong Kong will follow.

Just charted FXI, still hasn't broken the downward trendline.
Compare to CAF.

yeh, plenty of volume in XLE.

Got a buy tip on VDE from a newsletter.

Will compare the two more closely.

Good morning! Today the first bunch of output came from my new "money pump" ACI: the sell limit order was hit at $17.50 for the 200 shares I purchased 10 days ago at $15.50. All my previous purchases of ACI constituted a gradual accumulation of a core position (400 shares) with the cost basis of about $15.70. All my future purchases of ACI will be sold with some profit. For now, I am placing a buy limit order on 200 shares at $15.50.

im torn at the moment on the gold price.
even more so w/ the USD looking weaker.

going forward i dont gold will not go up if the broad market tanks.
i dont think it will crash but any gains may be muted as the rush to cash/t-bills becomes in vouge again.

is USD moving lower a sign that the new bill will be percieved as detrimental to the USD dollar, but also detrimental to the markets, which is why gold is not jumping (or the stocks as the leading indicator?)

financials are making a power move here so im inclined not to think the above comment is true. at least not yet. i think its far too easy to paint a picture of inflation leading to higher gold w/ the passage of any new bailout plan. the mantra was the same last year and these plans did little for the gold price consider many were saying these bills would cause "explosions" in the POG.

we are not out of the woods yet by the look of today's action, lots of early session jumps followed by a slow grind back down as the day closes. im curious if we can hold onto gains today, as that would be a good sign. we need to see follow through on this market strength, too much giving back of gains EOD frustrates me and makes me grow ever more suspicious of even golds future here. need to see the reaciton to the announcement.

capitulation play, long @ 6.09. Max pain March 12.50.

Do ur own homework.

in 2/5 @ 5.45, out today @ 7.22. 30% gain. Capitulation trade

Add United Therapeutics to the list...

http://tinyurl.com/ade8l2

CP, So the following (which are listed as TBT's primary holdings) are actually shorts of 20-yr bonds which are held by these banks? Is that the way it works?

Bank of America Corp. 2.100% 09/02/08
UBS Warburg LLC 2.100% 09/02/08
Credit Suisse First Boston Corp. 2.120% 09/02/08
JPMorgan Chaseá& Co. 2.120% 09/02/08

buy stop above 10 AM, hedging.

in 2/3 @ 10, out today 12.60

long @ 40.20

i will let her run but i will not wait much below $10.50 to sell. FAS was a short term trader for me, and i fought all my emotions that were telling me not to buy, when i bought because of the technicals/stimulus. so if i turn this into a loss, that would be my fault for not listening to my learnings here.

As long as she stays over $10.50 i am ok with a $10.25 entry. I am getting the itch to sell when it dips to $10.80 too, as that also is support today.

in 1/25 @ 8.09, out today 9.93

http://tinyurl.com/c6pgvq

WASHINGTON -- The Obama administration's financial rescue plan, which Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is slated to unveil late Tuesday morning, is "intact" and just undergoing minor revisions, a Treasury spokesperson told reporters Monday.

"It's basically intact -- done, but there are minor tweaks happening," said the spokeswoman. "We are ready to announce what we believe is a comprehensive forward-looking plan tomorrow."

It takes time for a turn in the swing of the pendulum to become obvious, but I think the high-risk play right now is going short...JMO...

I agree that the trend may be changing up for a change. One can see it on the charts of miners, energy or even CAF. Even SPX has higher lows.
The point is that a lot of people jumped to buy stocks on the hope of passing the stimulus in the last couple of days. Some indicators reached top levels similar to the first week of the year. This is unsustainable and IMHO, weak money have to be shaken down before market can proceed further. I used to believe in a retest of Nov lows. Now, I'm not so sure anymore, but spike down is coming nevertheless.

they have more guts than I. the equity is already 3X leveraged

FAS
http://tinyurl.com/bevauk

UYG (13,637 $4 Feb Calls traded today) = crazy gamblers
http://tinyurl.com/b72f98

Moody's rvs'd outlook to stable http://tinyurl.com/b42wzh
No position yet.

"UYG (13,637 $4 Feb Calls traded today) = crazy gamblers."

NYU- I'm not so sure they're either crazy or gambling.

The ratio of U.S. bank concentration is certainly rising to apocalyptic levels...

New data from the CFTC, provides the clearest proof to date of a manipulation in gold, thus vindicating the long-held position of GATA (the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee). It is my hope and expectation that GATA, run by Bill Murphy and Chris Powell (Ed Steer, a director, is a close friend), will take the evidence and do everything in their power to ram it down the manipulators’ throats and end the gold and silver manipulation.

The Bank Participation Report for positions as of February 3, indicates that three or fewer U.S. banks hold a record short position in COMEX gold futures of 111,190 contracts (over 11 million oz). an increase of 28,690 contracts from the January report. The previous record short position by U.S. banks was 86,398 contracts in the August Bank Participation Report.

Allow me to put the concentrated short positions in gold and silver into perspective. As the February BP report indicates, one or two U.S. banks held a 29% share of the COMEX silver market and two or three U.S banks held a 32.1% share of COMEX gold futures. Of the 73 markets covered in the report, no other market has a U.S. bank percentage even close to silver and gold, save the smallest market listed, 90-day EuroYen Tibor (Although I have over 35 years of futures experience, I don’t know, nor do I wish to know, what that is).

Please keep in mind that the Hunt Brothers and all their reported associates had a futures market position (COMEX and CBOT combined) that was under a 10% share of the total silver futures contracts outstanding at that time and were charged with manipulation. What aren’t short positions three times as large also manipulative?

The evidence in the February Bank Participation report is clear - two or three U.S. banks held a record net short position equal to 15% of total world annual production of gold, a staggering and unprecedented number, exceeded only by the absurd percentage in silver (currently 20%). In every reasonable measurement of market share, two or three U.S. banks are completely dominating and controlling the gold market. All according to government data.

Who gave these U.S. banks the right to manipulate gold prices? The U.S. Treasury Department? Why are banks who are receiving taxpayer bailout funds even shorting gold and silver in the first place, especially at a time when so few other big entities chose not to? Shouldn’t they be looking to make loans to real people and businesses and leave market speculation to others? Are there no honest market regulators left? I sure hope gold people get to the bottom of this and give these crooks what they deserve

http://tinyurl.com/bb635g

I agree that many astute investors are on the sidelines presently. Why? Because you'd have to be STARK, RAVING MAD to step out infront of this stimulous bus. When the market's ready to go up, astute investors will quash the asks, manipulate the bids, buy and sell to fool everyone out of their stock and then, when they're Goshdarn good and ready, then the price will rip. But stocks really cannot move until they are owned mostly by the big boys and the little guy has been tossed overboard anyway. My point is that only when the future direction becomes clear will that accumulation begin in earnest. Don't underestimate the big boys' ability to price stocks where they want to for as long as they're able, which can be quite some time.

When it's time to invest again folks, you will know it. There will be a break in the paradigm, a new situation or an radical increase in our prominence upon the world stage. Perhaps the recession will one day play itself out and signs of true life will be palpable. As in, housing gets going again and jobs are actually being created and stuff like that. Then it's time to plow your hard earned money in. This stimulus nonsense aint the catalyst. How could it be? Things are still too Godawful, from the investor perspective. But if you want to learn to dance the naked limbo with firesticks in both hands and a bullwhip strapped to your backside, I know a certin russian who can scalp like Jesus, but take a couple Maalox first:)

I just bought 2000 shares of WGW at $1.75, replacing the shares I sold at $1.88 a couple of weeks ago, and placed a sell limit order at $1.95 for them. Even if WGW falling further in the next few days, I think that the probability of WGW hitting 1.95 within the next 2 months is close to 1. The gold chart looks pretty interesting today -- every abrupt decline gets bought rather fast. So I don't think the fundamentals for gold rising in the next few years have gone away -- this is just a local sell-off. If WGW falls another 20 cents, I'll buy 2000 more shares (I just placed a buy limit order at $1.55). Let's not forget the old faithful money pump. :)

A country's currency value is their stock price. Governments, like corporations, will do whatever it takes to support their stock price. The past two years of financial turmoil should have caused the U.S. Dollar to crash. But it hasn't yet. In my opinion, the U.S. Government is shorting gold, via the banks, to support their currency. As simple as that.

direct or indirect.

hope they find who did this asap and inflict communism type punishment for those guilty.

ALOHA !!

The two clear leaders in terms of energy consumption for the future(to 2030)as forecast by the EIA(Energy Information Administration)is coal and natural gas.

Link: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/ieoreftab_2.pdf

According to these forecasts for energy consumption this "recession/depression" will be a minor speed bump! According to what I saw in my travels I could see no evidence at all of even a recession if "traffic" is an indicator! Most people I spoke with agreed ... The streets of Nassau were not exactly empty, that's for sure, as I did rent a car there and drove both day and night there for eight solid days exploring the island. Two trips I made I had Bill Cara as my passenger! HA!! If you are used to driving in Australia then you'll do fine, otherwise WATCH OUT!

It works like this.

Any government will do anything to avoid the political risk involved in a total collapse of their sovereign debt. But commercial banks, on the other hand, are involved in a risky, overleveraged off balance sheet trade called interest rate derivatives. The short term expedient is to dishoard central bank gold. It doesn't get trucked away, it just sits there as its title changes and its value fluctuates.

What commercial banks did initially to provide liquidity to borrow money to buy sovereign debt the world over was to create a heavily laden market with derivatives held over the gold price. The gold price lack of movement over decades was seen as a risk free trade if you held short, and the proceeds, or the "assets" from this trade were used to expand the interest rate derivatives trade on sovereign debt.

Sovereign debt was also seen as "riskless" as a basis for derivatives, since governments would tacitly approve of the derivatives held over sovereign debt, and there was "no way" that this kind of trade could fail, at the same time as expanding the scope of sovereign debt.

Now the amount of leverage on these so-called riskless derivative trade is probably in the area of 100X, because it was, at one time, riskless. So the "liquidity" created in a short of gold scenario, probably tied to interest rate derivatives on gold leases, may also have a dire effect on the "liquidity" held in securitizations over sovereign debt.

So Central Banks, whose sovereign debt is at risk due to "riskless" short of gold derivatives, forces dishoarding, because the amount of leverage on these so called "riskless" derivatives held against interest rates is tremendous, probably 100X. Generally derivatives "assets" notional value is 10X cash flow, but because these are "riskless" the level of borrowing "allowed" is an order of magnitude higher.

It is a factual error to assert that the value of the currency is defended, when the very long term chart shows that the price on sovereign debt has only appreciated in the last 26 years while the currency depreciated. What we have is a "negative" gold standard dependant on a long term depreciation in the currency and long term depreciating gold price. (Not to put a too technical fine point on it, considering the silver market has the same structure as the gold market we have a "negative bi-metalism" money standard.)

Over the years, the "government" has become synonymous with the expansion of the securitizations trade, and is fully beholden to it what was once an independent democracy and the politicians are hung by short term political expediency. Anyone who tries to struggle out of the arrangement finds themselves in an ever-tightening noose.

Just look at the trouble Ecuador has repudiating its fraudulent government debt, and that's a full-on socialist state.

From SEC filing:

"Current 2009 guidance for reported EPS is $2.85 to $3.00, including adverse currency impact of 80 cents at current exchange rates. At spot rates in mid-December, guidance would have been 40 cents higher."

Seems like a fairly straight-forward, inverse dollar play to me. Huge dividend.

Still just watching. Any thoughts?

ALOHA !!

Petrohawk(HK:NYSE)is a company I have an intimate relationship with now since they are drilling on my family's North Louisiana natural gas property near Haynesville,LA and in East Texas. These properties have been in our family for over 100 years now and some were grants signed by Sam Houston. I own no shares and so I cannot comment on any shareholder info other than geologics ... These guys have a high success rate in bringing in wells, somewhere around 95%+, while they have cut production costs and grown revenues consistently year-over-year.

Link: http://www.petrohawk.com/ir/ar/documents/Petrohawk...

From news dated Feb 3, 2009 ...

Petrohawk Provides Fourth Quarter Operational Update

Final Proved Reserves up 34% Year Over Year at 1.42 Tcfe, 419% of Production Replaced

Haynesville Shale Gross Operated Production Reaches 160 Mmcfe/d

HOUSTON, Feb. 3 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Petrohawk Energy Corporation ("Petrohawk" or the "Company") (NYSE: HK) provided its fourth quarter 2008 operational update, including additional drilling results in the Haynesville Shale and proved reserves for year-end 2008.

During the fourth quarter, Petrohawk drilled 218 wells, with a success rate of 98%. On average, 32 operated rigs and 15 non-operated rigs were running during the quarter, including a combination of spudder rigs and horizontal rigs in both the Haynesville Shale and Fayetteville Shale development programs. For 2008, Petrohawk drilled 739 total wells, also with a success rate of 98%.

Production for the fourth quarter was approximately 361 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (Mmcfe/d), a 15% quarter over quarter increase and a 52% increase over fourth quarter 2007, on a pro forma basis. Petrohawk exited the quarter producing approximately 400 Mmcfe/d. Full year 2008 production was approximately 305 Mmcfe/d.(more)

Link: http://www.petrohawk.com/news/?id=1251165

Share price has 52 week low of $8.95 and high of $54USD ...

This is a new relationship for me so as I get more acquainted with the company and its management I can offer some updates periodically.

I felt the presence of bigfoots in the forest today. Took my profits in CNQ and AGU, sitting on Yamana @ $10.4 av. What'll they do next?

*US SENATE VOTES TO LIMIT DEBATE ON $827B STIMULUS BILL; A PROCEDURAL VOTE THAT ALLOWS THE BILL TO MOVE ON TO A VOTE ON AMENDMENTS AND A FINAL VOTE ON TUESDAY
- vote was 61-36, overcoming a filibuster

Checking in from a library "down under" . . . nice to read Bill's WIR to stay in touch.

Although placing a slug of cash on the sidelines and picking up some FXA @ 66 before leaving, left some positions open (and fortunate I did).

Received confirm emails from on GTC sale of 70% of TRA position at 23.91 and closed defensive OXY Feb 55 puts position for small profit last week.

Kaimu- "If you are used to driving in Australia then you'll do fine" --
that's exactly what I'm doing . . . had a nighttime experience dodging kangaroos and all . . . down in SE Australia now, (no time to visit Perth Mint).

Have a good week everyone and Bill, thanks again for all your work!

just posted a 1 year gold chart w/ some moving average studies on my blog,
comments as always are welcome:

http://jglobal.blogspot.com/2009/02/moving-average...

I've been upset that I've made some bonehead decisions legging out of covered call positions but then I put things into perspective -- My mother is in not in intensive care, my sister is not berating me for decisions I've made, and I am not impacted by the terrible fires in Australia that have taken so many lives. Suddenly I feel embarrassed to be worrying about a few dollars I've donated to someone else. To those in real pain, please accept my condolences.

Taking good questions. making clear points. a salesman's salesman.

Made the short/midterm/longterm reference to spend now to stop the slide, but once we equalize we have to all act more prudently and not buy homes with zero down.

i just hope politics doesn't wear him out.

He's DECENT, honest, worldly-wise, hard=working, and super-intelligent. What more can we demand? If conservative pundits were fish, they'd all be CARP !

He couldn't possibly be different!.....Could he?

footnote: Obama is the best leader we could hope for at this juncture; but it's unlikely a depression can be avoided. Trade gold stocks, and don't take it out on Barack ...

http://tinyurl.com/clqheq

it sounds like progress to me. A compromise but a step fwd.

Edit: just for the record i dont like any bailouts. and i hate that this is more debt. but i am not the president. i keep telling myself "it could be worse"

Friend send me this Email
DNDN -before April trial results are in. Gamble pure speculation high
risk reward.
Provenge is expected to have yearly sales of $1 BIL. If it's approved,
you can expect DNDN to trade in the $30s within 6 months. The company
will not be DNDN for long after that, it will be bought out .
In a meeting with the FDA on May 29, 2007, Dendreon received confirmation that the FDA will accept either positive interim or final analysis of survival from ongoing Phase 3 D9902B IMPACT study to support licensure of Provenge. The primary endpoint of the IMPACT study is overall survival (an event-driven analysis), and time to objective disease progression is a secondary endpoint. In October 2007, the Company completed enrollment of over 500 patients in the IMPACT study. FDA agreed to amend the special protocol assessment for the IMPACT study.

anyone has any other information about DNDN?

"Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is seeking to draw investors into the U.S. financial-rescue program, aiming to add private funding as a new component of proposals to address the toxic debt clogging banks' balance sheets."

Oh boy, I just can't wait to get my hands on bundles of this toxic debt.

My impression of today's press conference is that we may have a Pres who is much more intelligent and engaged than any predecessor in recent memory. Attributes much needed. Gives me hope.

Chickenpookie

Toxic assess is better than no assess.

ALOHA !!

One of the first line items under "Withdrawals" at the DAILY TREASURY STATEMENT is something entitled "Commodity Credit Corporation" or CCC ... ANyone here know what that is? Has it ever even been mentioned on national TV yet? On 60 Minutes?

I mean so far we have spent $16.3bil USD($3.6bil per month)on it. Just on Feb 6th, last Friday, we US Taxpayers spent $55mil on it in one day! More than double food stamps and temporary services for needy families combined!

Here it is over at the USDA and FSA(Farm Service Agency)...

Commodity Credit Corporation Programs
Program Summary

The FSA through the EERB has been engaged in an ongoing program to address groundwater contamination at grain storage facilities that were formerly operated by the CCC. The CCC grain storage program was in operation between 1933 and 1972. CCC no longer owns any storage capacity.

During the conduct of CCC grain storage operations, fumigation and rodent control were routinely conducted using chemical compounds containing carbon tetrachloride (CT). In 1985, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency determined CT to be a probable human carcinogen. At some former CCC grain storage locations, residual effects of fumigation have led to groundwater contamination due to unacceptable levels of CT. Since the first discovery of contaminated groundwater in 1988, CCC has been engaged in an active program to identify affected sites and respond with appropriate action to safeguard public health and protect the environment.(more)

CT is a "probable human carcinogen" ... Don't they know yet? Its 24 years later and it is still "probable"? We spend $55mil a day on "probable" ... How long do CTs last in soil? Are they even in the soil still? Seems it would be cheaper to just replace all the grain silos in America by now!

So, in essence it is a continuing investigation tied to the EPA that never ends! Man, I wonder what fat cat is on that gravy train? Seems like a perfect job for Tony Soprano!

Then there is the line item in Table IIIA entitled "Hope Bonds" where there is a big fat "0" in every column, yet I am sure it is costing US Taxpayers something to administer this bond program. Why have it? Has anyone here got a Hope Bond yet? Has anyone here even heard of one? Some politician's "pet project" I suppose! It sounds good, if we want to buy some "Hope"!

This is just two line items among many and many more not listed in detail. The waste is truly overwhelming ...

ROME BURNS ...

Government takes care of its "friends", at taxpayers' expense. Medicaid is a classic example: attorneys put millionaires on the public dole daily for all of their nursing home and medical needs. Any money that stands in the way of Medicaid eligibility is transferred quietly to the spouses and children of the "manufactured" Medicaid recipient, an early "inheritance". The government turns a blind eye and makes every effort to approve cases brought through attorney "friends". Lobbyists keep the wheels greased; it's "only taxpayer money". In the meantime, the truly needy often go without. There are no remaining funds for such "unentitled" individuals as the developmentally delayed or the mentally ill. Taxpayers throughout the country are paying for these handouts to the "well-to-do", and lining the pockets of the attorneys behind them. Medicaid is 61-85% Federally funded. Medicaid rules are not handled uniformly throughout the country, despite significant payment of the burden with our Federal Tax dollars. So, some states allow abuses. Public outcry is a possible solution. Government employees can't blow the whistle... Many of them would, if they could. This outrage enjoys government-imposed silence. No doubt, there are other such abuses for which we all must pay...

looks like an excellent short.