Bill Cara’s Morning Call
[8:00am ET] Paying attention to technical indicators: Adam Hewison INO.com has a straight-forward 6-minute video presentation of the present technical condition of the S&P 500, particularly with respect to Fibonacci and MACD.
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/sp5001209/
With respect to Fibonacci, I am a strong believer in the Wave Principle. In the investment literature presented by Wiki, the “Behavioral characteristics and wave signature” section is highly relevant.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_number
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Fibonacci_relationships
One caveat: in my view, too many newbie traders are misled by a popular marketing organization into taking the Wave Principle to extreme. They believe the Elliott Market Wave Model is a scientific tool and they don’t know that practitioners usually end up losing. In the market we are dealing with nature and we all know nature is not perfect. Having said that, I will always believe in trends and cycles and the wave principle.
In today’s U.S. equity market, there has been Fibonacci resistance at the 50%-retracement level for past 5 weeks. The longer the current price of the S&P 500 stays at this resistance level, the bigger will be the break-out, up or down, when it happens.
With respect to MACD, my personal trend and cycle guru, the late Ian Notley, was, among other approaches, a practitioner of what he called Moving Average Departure Analysis, which Gerald Appel named Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MACD
Again, for the present S&P 500, the MACD has been declining for many months and is now close to the zero line. Once negative, the MACD gives a major SELL signal.
So, technical analysts are watching these indicators closely.
In my view, so too are the Interventionists. Every time the S&P has approached a probable SELL signal since June, the money flow indicators showed that the weakest banks have boomed. That is not the public buying. For instance, this week, in many markets, including Europe and the UK, the strongest banks, like HSBC and Deutsche Bank traded as anticipated, as capital-deficient, taxpayer-controlled banks like Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Group were sent soaring. Again, this is not the public buying those shares, and the repeated instances over six months reflect, as I see it, how dishonest the equity markets have become.
Only central banks that have an unlimited capacity to print money and ignore risk can invest in this fashion; so, the bottom line is that for the past six months the international equity market has been grossly unfair to independent traders.
As we all know, most central banks have manufactured a phony interest rate too. They can only continue to do that as long as the G-20 central banks and sovereign wealth funds agree to buy the debts of their international peers. But, at the end of the day, the only – and I mean the only – result could be that governments own every debt instrument, like every building and house mortgage, every loan, every credit card debt, etc. The private investor would be frozen out because a real rate of return would be impossible. People who need fixed income would become wards of government.
In equity markets, if the Interventionists truly believe they can win, then government would have to buy up the shares of not just the insolvent, no longer credible banks, but also the equity in many industries that take high risk and those that require huge capital expenditure, like the airlines, for instance.
Common sense says, like INO’com’s Adam Hewison, there is a point where we independent traders have to walk away. He is pointing to S&P 1083.74.
This morning the S&P futures are indicating higher prices to come, but money flow indicators continue to reflect the opposite. There will soon be something akin to the Gunfight at the O.K. Corral in Tombstone AZ. Try hard to avoid having your name on a tombstone in the next month.
Have a good day.
CTA Trading Desk Report
This report will be published after the close.
Comments
Quantitative filters
Translating Berkshire Hathaway's Criteria into Quantitative Rules:
Credit Suisse has translated these criteria as follows: They select companies with
(1) return on equity higher than 15%,
(2) debt:equity ratio less than 50%,
(3) improving profit margin,
(4) selling at a discount of between 10% and 70% in relation to fair value indicated by their proprietary HOLT(TM) methodology, and
(5) has a market cap greater than $250 million.
Re point #4: Other quants simply use a very long term Moving Average to represent fair value, like say a 400-day MA. Unfortunately, the market is marketing and the sell side is consumed with the need to differentiate their services, so they come up with useless names and stories to make you think they are rocket scientists. Don't play that game.
However, if you do use a simple methodology for filtering value -- perhaps it is just the Monthly RSI below 30, for example -- I do believe your long-term portfolio performance will improve.
Having been caught up on the Interventionist Treadmill myself for the past six months, I am personally trying to get back to basics, which is why the CS article today caught my eye.
Rally on Retail Sales
Retail sales came in slightly above consensus expectations.
Retail Sales
Futures responding accordingly... actually not much of a reaction.
Re: Rally on Retail Sales
http://www.census.gov/retail/
Re: Rally on Retail Sales
From the report:
The September to October 2009 percent change was revised from +1.4 percent (±0.5%) to +1.1 percent (±0.2%).
That could be one reason futures are not moving too much.
Re: Rally on Retail Sales
Here is the direct link to the html version of the file
http://bit.ly/Dg4Ab
Today's Mornng Call
Thanks Bill.
The link to the Adam Hewison lesson was very interesting and I'm sure will be helpful. People like me need to led by the nose through something like this. Also, glad to hear both short term and longer term "How to" advice.
While I have been OK being mostly marking time in bond funds this past year, I have started going to more cash and will be looking for some good stock values over the next year.
Your RSI feature and illustrations like this will be among my most consulted tools without a doubt.
long bond moving down?
So I've been watching the long bond tumble pretty steadily since about November 30. It became more obvious recently when my TBT position went green just two days ago. When did that Dubai story break? Is there a connection? I know there was an iffy 30 year auction a little bit ago, but this movement down has been fairly steady over the past two weeks. Anyone have any thoughts?
I mean, it could be as simple as "the RSI got too high and so it sold off", but perhaps its something more.
First shots in a trade war fired by German Manufacturing
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,151...
How long are G20 partners going to hold member's debt while their manufacturing base is being decimated? How do they dump their dollar holdings without further weakening the American dollar? Is this the administration's game plan?
Chesapeake Energy
Picked up some CHK this week (and sold some puts) for the following reasons...
1. See attached 2 yr chart. It appears to be bouncing from 200d and lower trendline of channel dating back to January. Corrections from the upper trendline of the channel are progressively less steep. Decline from last 2 months or so is a bullish declining wedge. Good support in this region and a clearly defined trendline break would be a reasonable stop-loss.
2. Natural gas has been in a bear market for quite some time, and is now at an 11 month high following the latest inventory report. All we've heard about for months is the "glut" in natural gas. Sentiment like you saw when gold was out of favor in the late 90's.
http://tinyurl.com/ykqf2t5
3. RSI reasonable. 47.2 (17d) 37.23 (17w) 45.78 (17m)
4. 1.3% dividend; nothing to write home about, but much better than I get from cash at my brokerage account...
I'm certainly no expert and not trying to sell anything here, but wanted to share because it looks like an interesting play. DYODD
BAC TARP
ALOHA!!
The much lauded Bank America $45BIL repayment of TARP through shareholder dilution showed up at the US TREASURY on Wednesday, Dec. 9th. The TARP line item showed a total deposit(receipt) of $45.552BIL USD. Since there is no detail I can only assume part of that was the $45BIL from BAC.
With that repayment that leaves some $235.2BIL USD left for the banks to repay, per US Treasury FY 2009 and 2010. Who hasn't repaid TARP? Citi, Wells Fargo? Whoever it is they still need to dilute and sell assets to the tune of $235.2BIL USD to break even with the US TAXPAYERS.
However every other day more TARP funds are paid out to various entities which are never listed in detail.
Just so you get perspective on that same day the US TREASURY spent $19BIL USD and issued non marketable debt of $177BIL. Total marketable debt issuance in the form of US Treasuries(mostly short term one year or less Bills) on Dec 9th stood at $1.5TRIL USD.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes (Final)
COST - estimates raised at Government Sachs through 2013. Company is realizing higher margins and sales should continue to recover. Neutral rating and $61 price target.
DIS - numbers raised at UBS. Shares now seen reaching $38. Estimates also boosted, to reflect strong expectations for future Pixar and Marvel films. Buy rating.
ERTS - numbers lowered at Piper. Shares now seen reaching $16.50. Estimates also cut, to reflect lower game sales across the entire industry.
NOK - Upgraded to Hold @ Societe Generale
UTX - numbers raised at Government Sachs through 2011. See potential for margin improvement, aided by cost cutting. Buy rating and $83 price target.
Which will win? Both the markets and U.S Peso up
http://bit.ly/uspeso
One will have to reverse.
PM and commod. relatively strong given the dollar gains today
This is why I started buying on dips. SLV filled at 16.8 today and I got my miners and energy on close yesterday. I missed the trade on UNG. Impressive gain.
Edit: equities and PM caught up with the rising dollar. I will get stopped out likely.
Re: long bond moving down?
Davefairtex,
I don't believe there is any reason to panic. The 10yr was at 3.5% in the first week of November and soon reversed to 3.2% 11-30.
While we all know the rates will need to rise either by Fed action or other means, it would take a Fed jump to move them rapidly and that simply is not going to happen soon regardless of anyone's talking about it.
It is not something I can predict in any meaningful way, but I have been trading TLT/TBT a bit while holding the bulk of my money in gov. bond funds (mostly Vanguard's GNMA fund VFIIX) just to pick up better interest than any m/mkt.
I recently began to ease out, (close to 3% with a 2+% cap gain) but will wait now for another blip to the upside.
XAL - airlines
XAL - the airlines index broke out to a new high last friday. It did +16% last week and is up above 3% this week. We are at levels last seen in March 2008 and some of the components of XAL are back to stockprices of 2007.
What does the board say about this?
A simpleheaded thesis:
For some time now, based on a belief that in this rally prices have been driven up by obvious intervention, I've been wondering the following:
For those not familiar with the stock market cycle:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/st...
This choppy, prolonged sideways action is very reminiscent of stage 3 distribution, isn't it? But since we know that the public has been notably absent in this rally, the only major buyers have been institutions, HBB, FED, hedge funds, etc.
Usually these institutions accumulate at much lower prices, from the weak hands who bail at the bottom (that part done), then drive prices up to lure in the public (that part done, in spades, since March), then distribute to the late comers - rinse and repeat. But alas, this time: no public.
Who then are they to distribute to? Each other? That just becomes a game of which hedge fund gets to the exit first...and they're very quick, these guys, (see last year).
Or, all the power, money printing, marketing and fear mongering (of missing out) will be used until the public caves in and rejoins the party, causing another run up at which point HBB will distribute to them at even higher (and more unjustifiable) prices, leaving a lot of people holding the bag.
HBB will then be waiting below with a wheelbarrow waiting to take the merchandise off the hands of the distressed sellers when the market reverts to "normal"; whatever that is.
So which is it: the guys holding the bag now, decide not to wait and give us the mother of all sell offs as they try to distribute to each other (or could the FED buy enough to keep it in check?)
Or, do they hold it up and run it inexorably higher having the patience to out wait the public so they can distribute to them once they commit to the market again?
Comments?
Financials still under selling pressure.
Watch JPM, will the H&S neckline hold support? Nasdaq lagging or leading, depending on your view, AMZN, AAPL, GOOG all negative.
Wish I had a bond market decoder ring
I keep thinking something is afoot in the bond arena - or somewhere else sensed in the bond market. TBT is above the 50 WMA and 200DMA (which are very close) today and if it closes above 50, then ????
Dow up, gold seems to be holding its own but drifting lower now. In SEpt when TBT was about here, gold was ~ 1000 or a little less, then in Nov (~Nov 8 and again Nov 14) gold was ~ 1100. Gold rose from the Sept point to the Nov points. Here we are again in Dec, BUT Gold and TBT are similar to the Nov convergence. If TBT blows through 50, rates in the 20 to 30 year range rise, dollar carry (does what, collapse? stocks ??? ) then does gold fall or go up? Maybe I am trying to read order into confusion and manipulation here, but the TOG idea from a while back has me wondering and looking at TBT, UUP and gold.
Re: A simpleheaded thesis:
I totally agree. I did not see a final meltup yet. I feel it's close.
Alternatively, the public is not interested in stocks anymore. Notice that bond holdings are record high.
Re: XAL - airlines
last week action could be due to weak oil. don't know the rest. intriguing.
Morning Call
Not the way to start the day. I was reading the links from the morning call comments. After spending about a minute reading through the Fibonacci page I felt this big gray cloud descend trying to read through the equations. I need coffee.
Thanks for the insight this morning Bill.
What a mess...
Friday, December 11, 2009 11:31:13 AM
US Treasury Pay Czar Feinberg releases pay guidelines; BAC no longer part of evaluation; AIG found to have certain 'critical employee's
- Pay rules include 450 executives at AIG, Citi, GM and GMAC
- places threshold of 45% of total compensation in cash; cash salaries limited for all executives at $500K; with exception of 12
- finds certain AIG employees critical, and that a restructuring of contracts was not in the public interest
- rules eliminate tax 'gross ups' for tier 2 executives
Re: Which will win? Both the markets and U.S Peso up
Markets got the clue and dropped. I guess waiting for that was important.
Re: Quantitative filters
Thanks again Bill...just checked in qualitatively anyway. You know, we all have to chop some wood and tend the beds too. I now have some free time, which is to say how will I spend it or what will I worship? I do not know IMHO if this is the venue to become all sentimental and such, but I know in reference to your AM...this helps me to sort our concepts like Fib, etc. I am thinking the market will go up then down or perhaps sideways...I never know, but one thing is for sure; I will protect my capital because I love trading and want to be in the market in the future. I am praying I will have a nice long life like you and your wonderful dad; isn't life great!
ps: am just slightly jealous of the picture I have of you and your beachcombing ways in paradise...lol, only kidding; who me?
Re: Wish I had a bond market decoder ring
the 30 yr has an hs top that has been forming for a few months now,I would think that is making longs awfully nervous as it is a fairly big one.
option activity in the dollar
I just saw at http://www.goldalert.com/gold-price-blog.php that there was a large buyer of the March $23 UUP calls. The market is holding up exceptionally well in my opinion though considering how much the dollar has rallied over the past few days.
Re: option activity in the dollar
RE: "The market is holding up exceptionally well in my opinion though considering how much the dollar has rallied over the past few days."
I call it a stealth rally. It has been rallying against euro since beginning of november and against gold since first of december.
Thus, shorting now will not work well.
Regarding UUP, I noticed very heavy trading volume in the last couple of mounts. IMHO, there is a lot of interest in picking up the bottom in dollar. Doesn't bottom come when there are few buyers left? I will wait for both daily and weekly RSI(7) to drop down closer to 30 before buying.
Re: A simpleheaded thesis:
This is only my opinion which will get you absolutely nothing other than time spent. I have had very similar thoughts regarding HB&B...further, your thesis sounds good to me; recognizing that your question speaks volumes. I think Bill is hinting that we may have the upper hand here and not even realize it since we don't have to participate in this madness unless we choose to. Who makes the rules, the market does! Who is the market? We are! I guess greed knows not to many bounds, but it does love itself and because of this fatal flaw, we don't have to be last in line...the bread line that is.
Re: Financials still under selling pressure.
Funny, I just went long JPM...there are too many people that are bearish on these guys.
Re: Financials still under selling pressure.
I don't know TOF, but I read this...it relates to synthetic, I guess, shorts on silver and does not speak to well of JPM down later in the body. At the bottom is a link to sign up for a future report that claims to be unbiased...we will see, eh?:
http://ssomail.charter.net/do/mail/message/view
and had my eyes opened just a bit. Could this be true?
Re: XAL - airlines
XAL is now up 5,5%, driven by the world´s biggest airline DAL (+12%) on 1,5x normal volume. The sector sure has momentum.
Now is the time
to start buying oil service companies, specifically the international drillers..
Re: A simpleheaded thesis:
aiki100,
"Who then are they to distribute to? Each other?"
I think this is exactly what they have been doing.
In one of the first reports by Elizabeth Warren, Chairman of the TARP, oversight she said Paulson left about $45 billion unaccounted for. A while back Bill mentioned a slush fund being used to pump the market by the 400 Fed buyers.
It looks to me like the banks and Fed have been passing the money and stock gains back and forth in their "things are getting better" Kabuki dance. The TARP gets paid back from the proceeds of the manufactured "market recovery" by investing the free money banks got .
Just paper, or more accurately, digital doodling which fixes none of the real problems — only political ploys.
Bernanke get to be a hero, Obama gets to say we saved the world, Wall St. gets to avoid a lynching...
Those small enough to fail get robbed and made even smaller.
If this was a movie it would flop. Too stupid to be believable.
Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
Full Article http://bit.ly/5Xdrg5
the video is about a week old. the full story is newer i believe.
Dec. strikes will try to keep
RIG at $ 77.00... This monster will roar next year...
Re: BAC TARP
Dilution?
Why didn't these banks "dilute" 13 months ago instead of snorting up the TARP dollars in one nostril, while snorting up the individual retirement accounts with their other nostril?
HB&B's record derivative profits last quarter are a direct result of dwindling retirement accounts(ie. the working peoples saving for their futures).......
One more question! Tarp was supposed to officially end in January 2010. So why did helicopter Ben just extend TARP until October 2010?
These US HB&B's have driven up the national dept so far, I can only see a complete fiat implosion sometime before the end of 2010.
This HB&B Ponzi scheme has one more chapter.....
New movie coming out in Jan - Floor traders in Chicago
http://bit.ly/M7TPf
Man vs the Machine. I think you know who/what is winning.
Adam Hewison follow up post today
http://bit.ly/6kNKPK
I like his saying "It Doesn’t Matter What You Think!"
I am sure Vad would approve.
Let's see what Senate does next year
Friday, December 11, 2009 2:26:43 PM
(US) House passes financial regulatory overhaul bill, as expected; House approves removal of Fed sheild from interest rate audits
- Bill would establish the Consumer Financial Protection Agency
- Tightens rules for derivatives trading.
- US Senate is not expected to address the bill until next year.
Re: Adam Hewison follow up post today
I would probably formulate some things a bit differently but general idea is close to my philosophy, yes
another paired trade
Short SPX long WTIC. Look at the healthy 86 RSI on this sucker. This is simply a bet on mean reversion. I sort of stumbled onto this when I saw USO at RSI=20 and decided to go long, and decided SPX is at the higher end of its recent range and so I decided to go short. Then I checked the chart, and decided to double up.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$WTIC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p91237574205
EDIT: I actually had more thinking about why this was a good idea but too tired to articulate it now. :)
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
Edit:
Submitted by NYUGrad (1954 comments) on Fri, 12/11/2009 - 14:41 #54258
"Full Article http://bit.ly/5Xdrg5
the video is about a week old. the full story is newer i believe."
Thanks for this...intense!
SET UP QUESTIONS FOR VAD
VAD if you don't mind I have some questions for you concerning a stock I was playing around with today.
NTRI during the first hour had a cup at the open. Based (handle)for 30 minutes then had a great move once resistence was broken. I assume this setup could be either a CH or a JBE. I played it as a JBE for 2:1, +.22 but I missed out on the majority of the move. Which leads to the following questions.
1. Is a CH formation valid at the open? If so I believe the natural place for a stop would be at the bottom of the cup.Yet in this case the spread between entry and stop is .25 which makes a 2:1 set up a little ambitious even though this stock happened to cover this distance. In short I guess what is your parameters for a CH formation in reguards to stop and exit ratio. Also does the CH set up have stronger breaks.
2. I know you like to scale out of a position most of the time. What indicators do you use to determine when to scale and when to cash it in. Also how do you know when to trail a stop.
3. I have been looking for set ups that break past round numbers. The break seems to be stronger when a round number (29.00 in this case) is breached. Do you find this to be true or is it just my imagination. Is it fool hardy to care at what point resistence is broken.
4. How much does total market action come into making setups valid. Is it Ok to fight the big board tape if you have a salmon. In other words do you always look at overall market before taking a position.
Bob
(edit) link to chart: http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=...
Rating agencies - Why are they still around?
#1 Why are they still in business?
#2 Why have they not been shut down forcefully and prosecuted?
Re: SET UP QUESTIONS FOR VAD
Bobbyo,
1. I don't see clean C&H in that chart. Try to draw it, you will see how lopsided it is. Not that C*H always must be a noble china, but still :) It is a valid JBE, yes,. but here is one more important point: if you do deal with C&H, your stop is under the bottom of the HANDLE, not the CUP. This will put all your criteria back in reasonable limits. In this case, IF it were C&H you'd have the same stop as in your JBE.
2. I scalp in choppy jerky unstable nervous market. I tend to try and hold them longer and partial out if I see the trend developing and volatility calming down enough not to shake me out. I trail stop for the remainder after partialling out (i.e after reaching 1:1, 1:2 etc. Look at our long on CAT today at 56.90 and track comments on partials and trailing starting from 12:06 in trading log for a fresh illustration.
3. It's not your imagination. Whole numbers do tend to produce stronger moves. It's simple really - most people think in .00 and .50, not many think in .73 or .38... and good thing they did away with fractions, non-traders looked at us as if we were from planet Krypton when we discussed stocks in 5/16s or 11/32s...
4. Yes, I do. I really wish you'd come to conference - we will have whole separate section devoted to exactly this, how market interacts with individual stock. It's not as straightforward (although far from being a rocket science). On salmon, watch for market help you with your salmon direction - you don't need the same configuration, just direction at the moment of break.
Hope it helps
WHO DO YOU AGREE WITH MORE about the US$ ?? :)
We Have two completely opposite Opinions about the dollar recent rise here, Jim Rogers and Rob Prechter say the USD dollar has been shorted too much and it's time to buy US dollars as in these two videos links that came out today and yesterday:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXa2bj1uJRM
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/38779...
WHILE Jim Sinclair is laughing at both and thinks the opposite will happen as per his direct quote that came out today at 11:05 AM and I quote:
"When The Prechterites Attack
Posted: Dec 11 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: December 11, 2009 at 11:05 am
Filed under: General Editorial
Dear Friends,
Last night I told you the return of Mr. P was coming. Here comes the spam perfectly timed to an F-TV interview.
It is the same message that has been sent for the last many years.
During the interview the email spam came pouring into my inbox. Next came 500 emails inquiring on this subject.
Please try the search feature on the site before firing off your emails in panic.
Normally this simply re-confirms the bull.
Regards, "
The Big question to all of you here is WHO DO YOU AGREE WITH?? :))
Personally I tend to agree with Rob Prechter for ONLY the next RUN UP on the US dollar short-term ONLY but I also agree with Jim Sinclair on his long term vision on the dollar and Gold if and only if manipulation of the FEDs, HB&B and other governments stop and market was allowed to rise and fall freely and USD dollar no longer the world reserve currency. What is your opinion on this??
Meeting with Paramount Gold & Silver
For a founder & CEO of a junior gold explorer, Chris Crupi has a stand-out resume. For 5 years, he was special assistant to Canada’s Finance Minister & Deputy Prime Minister. A chartered accountant, he then moved to Pricewaterhouse Coopers to restructure and run bankrupt TSX-listed companies. For a time, he ran the Ottawa Senators Club (NHL team) and the Canadian Red Cross. No wonder that Crupi showed a keen sense of financial staying power -- of how to repair, develop and maintain it!
Crupi learned from exploration geologist Bill Reed of a deposit Reed had discovered, due to his extensive knowledge of Mexico during his tenure with his former employer (Silver Producer Hecla). Crupi founded Paramount Gold & Silver, and acquired the “San Miguel” gold/silver property currently with 2.6M gold-equivalent ounces established in the “inferred resource” category. This deposit is in the Palmarejo District of Mexico’s western Sierra Madre, which has historically yielded 40M oz gold and 2B oz silver.
The following deposits and miners are now arrayed in the Palmarejo District like a 170 km. geological chain of pearls:
Dolores – 4.5M oz (Minefinders)
Mulatos – 3M oz (Alamos)
Ocampo – 2.4M oz (Gammon)
Palmarejo – 3.8M oz. (Coeur D’Alene)
San Miguel – 2.6M oz - inferred category (Paramount)
El Sauzal – 2.5M oz (Goldcorp)
Monteverde – 1.3M oz (Kimber)
All the above, except Paramount’s San Miguel, are now producing mines. San Miguel is just 10 kms. away from Palmarejo, for which Coeur D’Alene paid $1.1B in late ’07. (some of whose contained ounces were – it must be said – were then in the “proven & probable reserves” category, with documented economic viability).
Paramount has assembled a large land package around San Miguel (currently over 1800 sq. kms.) which virtually encircles Palmarejo. The company plans major drill and study programs culminating in a preliminary economic evaluation by Q3/11. The aim is to prove up over 5M oz (the current “magic number” which attracts strong interest from senior producers).
Paramount’s strategy is reminiscent of that of Seabridge Gold -- which has gradually expanded and upgraded its massive KSM deposit to reserve status, while courting a buyer or partner to initiate mine development. In fact, Seabridge CEO Rudi Fronk sits on Paramount’s board. Over a recent ten year period, Seabridge was the best performing US-listed gold stock. Long-time Seabridge financial backer Albert Friedberg owns over 16% of Paramount.
Given the major infrastructure already present in the Palmarejo District, given Mexico’s growing popularity among mid-tier and senior producers, and given the strong outlook for precious metal prices, Paramount may be able to take this “Seabridge strategy” to full fruition relatively quickly.
Success seems to depend primarily upon three questions: how quickly can Paramount find more ounces in its land package? Can they move more ounces from the “inferred resource” category to the more valuable “measured & indicated” and ultimately to the “proven & probable reserve” category? How will investors respond to reports of Paramount’s progress?
One “ace in the hole” is that Paramount is incorporated in Delaware and trades mostly in the US – unlike most juniors which are Canadian incorporated, and trade primarily in Canada. It’s easier to get noticed in the US (with 48 listed gold stocks) than in Canada (with 500).
Past results from the Palmarejo district are very encouraging. There is the old saying that the best place to look for gold is next to a gold mine. The San Miguel deposit is “in the neighborhood” of 6 gold and silver mines! But, of course, the “devil is in the details” of each deposit.
What about country risk? Mexico’s regulations and mining culture are well-established, and broadly well-regarded as the 2nd best mining environment in Latin America. The Calderon government is business-friendly, and has 3 years yet to run. Does the drug war pose a threat? Crupi is the 3rd mining CEO working in Mexico who has told me flat-out that they have felt zero impact. (I believe this was an urban drug “industry dispute”, now inflamed and broadened by Army intervention.)
Is there financing risk? Paramount raised $9M in the March, 2009 depths of the financial crisis, and $23M in October. Mr. Friedberg, who took $4M of the recent financing, is a deep-pocketed and patient investor. Having done extremely well with Seabridge and Arizona Star, Friedberg has chosen Paramount as his current gold play.
By the way, Crupi himself is the 3rd largest Paramount shareholder with 4M shares. It’s encouraging to find a CEO with so much skin in the game. There is an overhang of 15M in-the-money warrants with 3.7 years left. Many of these (12 million) are held by Friedberg, whose interest is long-term. Crupi adds that Paramount has $20M cash, and expects to collect $15M from all the outstanding warrants.
My main question to Crupi was whether the “sweet spot” in mining hasn’t shifted (due to the financial crisis) away from pure explorers and towards emerging producers with internal cash flow, and large exploration upside. He then mentioned plans to initiate small-scale production (at zero capital cost) in partnership with one of the miners in the Palmarejo District with excess mill capacity. I believe this would make more likely the success of their strategy.
The key criteria in Crupi’s view are maintaining strong financial backing, and using 1st class drillers, assayers, and consultants to work methodically through an eventual partner’s or acquirer’s checklist. (Paramount’s geology staff has long experience with seniors, and also draws on significant help from Seabridge). He confidently stated that Paramount can move ahead for 3 years on funds raised to date. Coming from someone who financed and restructured bankrupt companies for a living, his confidence seemed credible.
Crupi’s personal style is low-key, affable and direct. Spending no time on his formal presentation (since I had already read it) he plunged eagerly into 1.5 hours of open discussion, and answered all questions candidly and fully. His company surely warrants following by those seeking to invest in serious, high-quality juniors.
Full disclosure: no position
The above is merely a write-up of a meeting, with a run-through of company documents; no significant due diligence has been conducted. Always do your own due diligence before investing.
Since I graduated college in 1999...
the past 10 yrs in charts. So in 1 decade, I have experienced two shocks to the financial system via the dot-com bubble and the credit bubble. Could be why i am now a cynic? What will the next 10 yrs be like?
Montly Charts
S&P http://bit.ly/6j1ltq
QQQQ http://bit.ly/78ARdO
CSCO http://bit.ly/6eketu
GOOG http://bit.ly/7hkdKY
AMZN http://bit.ly/57y0jW
PFE http://bit.ly/8EYK1p
GS http://bit.ly/6bLvhJ
AIG http://bit.ly/75BAA5
F http://bit.ly/6aNKMm
AMR http://bit.ly/50tKWG
PCLN http://bit.ly/7lOqyx
NTRI http://bit.ly/5NfxCy
$Gold http://bit.ly/76lA2D
David Patch and Bill Cara Letter to State Representative
On October 20th, on this blog, Bill urged his readers to take action.
http://tinyurl.com/y92f8dz
I wrote to the people he urged and also to my state representatives the David Patch letter and also included some comments of by Bill Cara. Well, today I actually got a live phone call from a staffer of Representative Todd Tiahrt of Kansas from his Washington D.C. office. The staffer thanked me for sending the email and introducing them to the information that Bill Cara and David Patch provided. Then he then talked about a new bill that was against "too big to fail companies" while I was trying to figure out what the email I sent was about. It was so long ago, I had to go back and see it was about investigating the SEC.
Anyway, the staffer mentioned B/C's and Patchie's name twice, so maybe we turned a representative staffer onto this community that has the ear of one of our Representatives?
Re: SET UP QUESTIONS FOR VAD
"Yes, I do. I really wish you'd come to conference - we will have whole separate section devoted to exactly this,"
First I would like to thank you for your answers.I feel they are a real benefit for me. I'm going to stick with DBI and JBE setups for now on scalps. In addition I will keep the edges on the CH even for now on.Secondly unfortunately the conference is on the biggest soccer weekend of the year here in Arizona. I'm a devoted soccer dad so while you are drinking Cuba Libre's with your toes in the sand i will be watching a min of 9 youth soccer games.Ugh. Lastly let me tell you a little secret about myself. I am the bad crowd. I have a hard time imagining myself going to the "BAHAMAs" to look at little sqiggly lines on the computer. I would instantly go native and probably sabotage any lesson plans you and Bill had by promoting the most base instincts of all the wouldbe traders. Of coarse I would expect Bill and yourself to join me. Yes a memorable weekend, but one with little learning. No I think it is better for me to sign up for the Wichita Kansas conference or maybe the Calgary one. Bahamas to learn trading. I wish it were possible.
Bob
Frank Holmes on Gold on BNN
Yesterday, Frank Holmes, manager of the oldest US gold fund USERX argued in favor of (his?) actively managed funds vrs. gold ETF's. He also offered views on gold's ongoing bull market.
He reminded viewers that the January, 1980 peak in gold prices was $2300 in today's dollars. By contrast, all other commodities have surpassed their inflation-corrected peaks of the 70s:
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip244932
CLF and V added to S&P 500 tonight....
.......
There are many alternatives to ' Cap and Trade '......
The CME knows this, as does its founders.... Carbon sequestration is a ruse.. CO 2 can be reused in many ways ... cement, fuel, plastics, Energy.... Coal prices will be much higher in the years to come... http://www.sandia.gov/news/resources/releases/2007...
Re: BAC TARP
Kiamu,
I suppose by now you've heard the thrilling news that Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown, yaaa - the exact same ex-gubernator of California - has offered to be the CEO of BAC for FREE. Maybe he knows they can hide his huge bonuses and stock options?
Supposedly BAC and other TARPees are speaking out loud that the main reason they are paying back the funds is so Obama and friends can't lord over them with HAMP and limits on pay packages to their favorite CONgressmen/women.
Funny thing: a local savings and loan we know is 'resisting' responding to a borroower's loan modification request. They seem to think if they didn't take TARP they can tell folks to bugger off.
Oh yea.
Re: Frank Holmes on Gold on BNN
Here is information on commodities showing:
All time highs
All time lows
% from high and low
It may be a useful sheet for some.
P.S. Knifecatcher thanks for the big wave vid.
I waited till I was livid and screaming at the screen
Then put 30% of what liquid assets I have left into metal. IMO, this was/is one of those games where everyone on TV says to wait till 1120, 1100, 1080, 1060, 1050, or XXX, etc before reloading, but when everyone is waiting to reload cheap, it never gets there long enough while our markets are open to actually reload, and if it were, there wouldn't be any metal to buy or the premiums would be doubled.
My history has been that when I get to the point where I'm screaming at the screen and pounding on the desk, its usually very close to the panic dumping point where its time to buy.
Is it too high to buy? Yes. But God help me if I find myself still holding lots of US dollars 2 years from now because I refused to move it out when I had the panic and the cash to do it.
I wish we had honest money so I didn't have the need to protect my wealth like this.
ECH - Chile etf - Overbought
I've been looking at ECH for a while, and it seems to me it is overbought. Can anyone tell me why the Chile Stock Exchange is so strong?
The ECH etf holds about:
13% Copec (forestry, fishing, fuel distribution)
11% Endesa (power generation)
10% Enersis (power generation and distribution)
7% SQM (Nyse adr; fertilizers, iodine, lithium; POT owns 30%)
7% CMPC (pulp, paper, wood)
So they are mostly protected businesses, but anyway when stock exchanges falls also this kind of stocks fall too. Any opinion?
MHFT looking long-term at the nuclear renaissance
Unless you’re a nuclear engineer, you are probably unaware how far the technology has moved ahead in the last 30 years. The first generation produced the aging behemoths we now see on coasts and rivers, which used high grade fuel that would melt down if someone forgot to flip a switch. Think Chernobyl.
Generations two and three never got off the drawing board. Generation four is known as a pebble reactor, which relies on a new form of fuel embedded in graphite tennis balls that is just hot enough to generate electricity, but too weak to allow a disaster. This eliminates the need for four foot thick, steel reinforced concrete containment structures, which accounted for 50% of the old design’s cost. Low grade waste can be stored on site, not shipped to Nevada or France.
I’ll write more about this fascinating technology later. The permitting process is being shortened from 15 years to four by confining new construction to existing facilities instead of green fields, urged on by a less fearful public and even some CO2 conscious environmentalists.
http://blog.madhedgefundtrader.com/
MHFT proposes an ETF for the industry
Re: There are many alternatives to ' Cap and Trade '......
We used to call the process underlying one of your alternatives "Water Gas" a long time ago.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_gas
Not a bad idea given the possibility we may have to endure the Global Warming farce (I did not believe CO2 was causing the new "Ice Age" back in the 70s either). Good use for coal and carbon if we drive energy prices way up first so it is economical.
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
Great read. Taibbi is correct, while everyone was focused on health care the banksters looted the Treasury.
Re: I waited till I was livid and screaming at the screen
I agree with you Cheapy and ditto the Pound.
I already have a decent amount of bullion,if we get a shake out in the PMs at sometime in the future (which is quite possible with dollar strength surfacing) I will buy more.
Colin Twiggs comments and charts update here for USD and Gold.
http://tinyurl.com/y8a67nb
Re: Rating agencies - Why are they still around?
I'm afraid your questions are like asking why is the sky plaid?
#1 Because they are part of "THEM"
#2 See #1
When I was a kid there was a Saturday morning radio show called "Let's Pretend".
It was fun then... now it's sick!
This sickness starts at the top — a new twist on "Trickle Down".
Re: I waited till I was livid and screaming at the screen
Cheapy,
We've all made wrong choices from time to time.
If you are that emotionally involved, IMO, you need to reevaluate your participation in the markets.
1. This is obviously too much on a single call.
2. Perhaps you need to take a total time out and work on your plan.
Suggestion: Try doing some pseudo trades for a bit (NO money). Sure you'll wish you had been in for real when things go your way, but just keep track of the good and the bad for a while until you find your style working on average.
Some days, weeks, or months when I'm down a look at the percentage change gives less pain than the dollar amount.
Thirty percent is, IMO, just too much and you are betting, not trading or investing.
If it is a coin toss...Don't do it!
I have been in the stock market since 1969 and NEVER been less sure, never been less trusting, never been more disgusted with the obvious manipulation by Congress, Presidents, regulators, rating agencies, media, financial advisers, brokers,.... the list seems endless.
Direct your anger at them — the market does react to what you want.
OVER $1TRIL
ALOHA !!
On Thursday, 12/10, the US TREASURY issued over $1TRIL USD in short term marketable debt, US Treasury Bills and CMBs were at $119.4BIL USD which brings the total for those two line items to $1.15TRIL USD. CMBs are issued to make up short falls, at a discount.
So the past ten days has been quite eventful for "firsts". On Dec 3rd the US Treasury reported spending(outlays) for FY 2010 crossed the $2TRIL mark and Thursday, Dec 10th the US Treasury crossed the $1TRIL mark on short term US DEBT issues. Compared to last year, FY 2009, Obama is outspending Bush by over $100BIL USD in each of those categories.
If you look at Defense line items then Obama, based on Dec 10 numbers for both FY 2009 and FY 2010, has spend over $3BIL USD more than Bush the WARLORD so far. Pretty hefty for just "mulling" over options in Afghanistan!
Then if we look at Unemployment in FY 2009 total outlays were $11.52BIL USD on Dec 10th, now under Obama it is at $28.83BIL USD, that's a 250% increase. If the cost of Unemployment Benefits are increasing that fast then where are all those jobs?
The gross US PUBLIC DEBT is just $11BIL away from crossing the debt limit again. Last week it crossed the $12.104TRIL debt limit once already. The "official" US PUBLIC DEBT limit is just $66BIL away from being crossed. Add another $1.8TRIL ... 70 years of fraud!
I get tired of hearing about these measly "deficit" numbers like $1.4TRIL! Who cares about deficits when US DEBT and SPENDING have already blown past $11.2TRIL USD in just over two months!! We need to take this US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT and put it in the FACE of every elected US politician to explain. I did that with Senator Akaka(D:HI) and he failed miserably to explain just one line item. To me the US financial media CNBC, CSPAN, CNN all of them are waving their hands, flailing about, saying, "HEY LOOK OVER HERE DUMMY ... HEY, OVER HERE!!!" So WE THE PEOPLE fixate our focus on total nonsense events and data that is absolutely useless and completely fraudulent, meanwhile the "real" financial news is happening at the US TREASURY and the US FED right under our very noses, all in secrecy, with little to no accountability for any thing at all. I mean that's what I call a TIN HORN THIRD WORLD DICTATORSHIP! A very few dictate to the masses what our financial futures will be. How in God's name do you get caught cheating the IRS and then be Sec. Of the US Treasury? I may be biased here because I am in the middle of a tax audit, having to account for every dime, while the real thieves are out chasing "rainbows" free as a bird! Spending and looting TRILLIONS upon TRILLIONS!
The herd says the US Dollar short is too crowded. On a fundamental basis "gazillion USD shorts" are not enough to match the "gazillion fraud" that the US Dollar FRN represents.
Lets see, the usual suspects and their usual MO:
1-EMERGENCY CRISIS
2-NEW RULES
The above political MONOPOLY "play book" has been used going back to 1900! Wash, rinse, repeat ... Wash, rinse, repeat!
The best "play book" for Americans would be to just "clean house" and "eliminate" both the POLITICAL and the MONEY MONOPOLY.
You know I doubt that any of the auditors at the State of Hawaii or the IRS even knows what a US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT is. When I worked at the IRS in the early 1980s I was barely even taught what an "outlay" was! I should be auditing them now!
God grant me the serenity
to accept the things I cannot change;
courage to change the things I can;
and wisdom to know the difference.
Man ... its hard as hell some days.
HA!! I can't believe I worked the Serenity Prayer into a US TREASURY report! HA!!
Re: Meeting with Paramount Gold & Silver
Hi Jock - Nice summary of Paramount and the Palmarejo area for us. I worked with Bill Reed during his early efforts on Noche Buena before the project was acquired by Hecla - a good ore finder. Not sure I like the company's plan to divert focus with piddly production efforts, but what the heck I will bite. Wish I displayed more clarity of thought on the royalty companies back during the depths of despair, evidence Royal & International of recent - do you know of any smaller royalty plays of interest? Previously I requested your take on Goldcorp vs. Terrane as the better play relative to the Mt. Milligan project -any thoughts? Happy Trading
U.S. of Goldman
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/did-obama-sel...
Re: I waited till I was livid and screaming at the screen
The good news was I was sitting there screaming at the screen, watching gold go to hell in a handbasket, with huge asks, and almost no bidders, and for once, I wasn't already long. I guess I felt it should have been going up, not down, etc.
In the past, in moments like those, if I were to sell in panic, it would almost for sure be within 5 min of the bottom. This time I bought instead and turned off the screen. Ok, I bought a bit too much, but where else can I put my money?
Is it a gamble? Yes. But holding US dollars which Bernanke, Geithner, and Obama are doing everything they can to scuttle on any given day, insures my bet. I sat there for months watching my dollars shrink in value. And these bozo's, and the other Fed governors that also speak on the matter act as though the dollar declining isn't a problem, and as though there is nothing wrong with it? Well, maybe *THEY* didn't spend their LIVES working 100 hr weeks, on call to clients 24/7, 364 days a year, and living frugally, saving that money to be able to safely retire with some reasonable comfort. They are STEALING the value of the money. Call it anything you like, but that's the way I see it.
WHAT GIVES THEM THE RIGHT? The Constitution sure didn't. So I take matters into my own hands. A gamble, yes, but short term. Long term, they will continue to print, because they desperately are trying to avoid the depression their bubbles (both parties and the Fed are equally to blame) have caused, and printing/stimulus is the only way they think can kick the can into someone else's term. Americans may never see it as hyperinflation, because in general they have no money, but the rest of the world is awash in US dollars, and will eventually find a way to unload them.
Re: I waited till I was livid and screaming at the screen
ALOHA !!
cheapy ... What is happening in America today can be summed up in one word ... "illegal". But, the matter is not that these actions are "illegal" but that WE THE PEOPLE allow the illegalities to continue. Only WE THE PEOPLE can enforce the US CONSTITUTION and the DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE and our BILL OF RIGHTS. Enforcement is the only missing ingredient. The laws are there and have been for over 200 years.
You and I and everyone on this blog including BILL and VAD have to live in a World of "reality". None of us can "legally" counterfeit money.
This debate between inflation and deflation is a diversion. Why? Because even in the Great Depression when deflation ruled few could find a job, hence living standards suffered. The same applies in hyperinflation today in Zimbabwe and as well during the Weimar Republic when inflation ruled. Those facts leads me to seek the common denominator and that is a "corrupt government" and its money. many here will say ... wait ... but in FDR days we were on the gold standard. We weren't because FDR took us off the gold standard in 1933 and confiscated all the US citizens gold. Americans were not allowed to buy gold in America until 1971. From 1933 to 1971 you needed a US Treasury issued "permit" to buy gold and they only gave those out to commercial entities for jewelry/dentistry production.
Gold and silver and commodities have no liabilities, no counterparty risk. Gold cannot default or BK. That is what makes them valuable, not inflation or deflation.
Go here and read what it was like for Americans living in a "real" depression.
LINK: http://www.rinfret.com/depression.html
After reading that link can you say we are any where close to that today?
The main example of "deflation" the past 20 years has been Japan. Yet TOKYO is now the 5th most expensive city to live in the entire World. Can you have ever rising prices and deflation at the same time? Or are there multiple "realities" at play here?
Now compare that experience to the supposed "deflation" now, or as I have heard mentioned "Great Depression 2", where government promises backed by unending debt printing keeps 99% or Americans from suffering the experience relayed at the link above. But there is a cost for that "voter subsidy" we vote ourselves every chance we get. None of us want to feel pain! That is the human condition that our entire monetary and political systems are based on.
NO PAIN ... NO PAIN AT ANY COST! That's is not reality. Its like believing you can spend yourself to prosperity! An absurd belief to you and I yet in Washington DC it is reality.
Kaimu - I understand better now. What follows is criminal
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Senate is poised to clear away a Republican filibuster of a huge end-of-year spending bill rewarding most federal agencies with generous budget boosts.
The $1.1 trillion measure combines much of the year's unfinished budget work -- only a $626 billion Pentagon spending measure would remain -- into a 1,000-plus-page catchall spending bill that would give Cabinet departments such as Education, Health and Human Services and State increases far exceeding inflation.
After a 60-36 test vote on Friday in which Democrats and a handful of Republicans helped the measure clear another GOP obstacle, the bill was expected to win on Saturday the 60 Senate votes necessary to guarantee passage. A final vote is expected Sunday.
The measure provides spending increases averaging about 10 percent to programs under immediate control of Congress, blending increases for veterans' programs, NASA and the FBI with a pay raise for federal workers and help for car dealers.
It bundles six of the 12 annual spending bills, capping a dysfunctional appropriations process in which House leaders blocked Republicans from debating key issues while Senate Republicans dragged out debates.
Just the $626 billion defense bill would remain. That's being held back to serve as a vehicle to advance must-pass legislation such as the debt increase.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Senate-GOP-denied-on...
I am gobsmacked. When are mid-term elections?
Re: I waited till I was livid and screaming at the screen
No, its not anywhere near that bad at all, thanks to all the safety nets.
What happens when the rest of the world balks at lending us additionally all its savings every year? Do we print? Or do the safety nets go away? Not pretty choices, either one.
Re: I waited till I was livid and screaming at the screen
Cheapy says, "WHAT GIVES THEM THE RIGHT? The Constitution sure didn't."
Right you are.
I got this today from a friend. While it has to do with the House health care bill, the principles involved are the same as in the markets and banks.
----------
Michael Connelly of Carrollton, Texas is a Constitutional lawyer and has
read the entire health care bill and has some comments, not about the bill,
but about the effects on our Constitution. It's a broader picture than just
health care reform.
"...it is a convenient cover for the most massive transfer of power to the Executive Branch of government that has ever occurred, or even been contemplated. If this law or a similar one is adopted, major portions of the Constitution of the United States will effectively have been destroyed."
"This legislation also provides for access by the appointees of the Obama
administration of all of your personal healthcare information, your personal
financial information, and the information of your employer, physician, and
hospital."
Michael Connelly
Retired Attorney, Constitutional Law Instructor
Carrollton, Texas
http://michaelconnelly.viviti.com/
Re: I waited till I was livid and screaming at the screen
Kaimu,
What you say here makes total sense, but...
What happens if/when gold is confiscated again?
I won't live long enough to see enough of these guys voted out. Even if they were all removed a new bunch would simply take over while this crew goes to the lobbyist club.
Unless we can make substantial constitutional changes limiting the power of congress what chance do we have? What chance do we have since they must first allow it to occur?
Since the Constitution is already being ignored would even new amendments be followed?
Re: Meeting with Paramount Gold & Silver
Luggie -
Thanks for the kind words. I suspect that a bit of actual production by Paramount through an nearby mill would convince some potential partners and/or acquirers that the ore is economic for sure.
I'm intrigued by your experience with Bill Reed. Wasn't Noche Buena the deposit that Seabridge just sold a year ago? near Penasquito?
The major royalty plays (RGLD, FN.TO) didn't seem to me to have performed THAT will after the '08 bottom. I was (stupidly) waiting to buy ROY after non-precious mineral prices came back down in the anticipated "double dip". But FN.TO was smart enough to pounce now, and gain control of ROY's database on the all 3500 mineral royalties in existence globally.
I think that as gold prices trend higher, new gold royalties get more expensive. So, I'm more interested in prospect generators, who "generate" royalties as they sell off interests in their properties. So far, I've only found 2 or 3 prospect generators who are as savvy in dealmaking as they are in geology: FRG, ALS.TO, and possibly TAS.V.
FWIW
tabibi's new piece on Rubin
Somebody flagged this, and it is a MUST READ - to plot your self-defense.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/3123464...
Ever since age 18, my motto has been: " I TRY to be cynical, but I just can't KEEP UP!"
Now, moreso than ever.
Re: Kaimu - I understand better now. What follows is criminal
ALOHA !!
Les ... The criminality of America will only get worse as each elected criminal will now want to "paper over" one crime after another. The ORIGINAL SIN of government is DEBT. The ORIGINAL SIN of American voters is thinking that voting for that DEBT is a free lunch. For the past many decades everyone has been fooled into believing that Keynesian Economics was a "win-win". As Nixon said when he removed the gold standard for the World forever, "We're all Keynesians now!" Isn't that obvious that all this is PLANNED CHAOS, with that one short monetary statement that Nixon made? It is obvious that not only Nixon knew the ramifications of no gold standard but also the global governments at the time knew. Yet the entire global government down to Columbia and little specs of government in the South Seas went off the gold standard. The idea of unlimited spending is such a "drug" to career politicians and those in power then and now.
Given the HUMAN CONDITION then there is no way for this to end other than a monetary crisis. Those in power will not volunteer to give up power will they? I see no signs of that happening. Read the article you linked to. What is their "solution"? More spending ... more DEBT! The only "non-violent" means left is the voting booth. Next is the "streets"! I honestly have no love for rioting, as I got a taste of what can happen in the late 1960s, but I have greater disdain for the "status quo".
"There is only one class in the community that thinks more about money than the rich, and that is the poor. The poor can think of nothing else."- Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)
From the DEPRESSION link above:
"THERE WAS NOT ONE SINGLE PRIVATE OR PUBLIC INSTITUTION THAT WAS UP TO THE TASK OF COPING WITH THE DEPRESSION. EACH AND EVERY BIG SHOT INSTITUTION TOTALLY AND MISERABLY FAILED TO COPE OR TO EVEN UNDERSTAND WHAT THE HELL WAS GOING ON! THEIR COMPREHENSION WAS ZERO AND ALL THEY CONTRIBUTED TO THE DISASTER, WERE MORE DISASTERS. I LEAVE NOBODY, NO ONE, NO INSTITUTION, OUT OF THAT STATEMENT." -Laura Rinfret 1946
I have to ask ... With such a long, long, very long and disastrous fiscal and monetary history as the two party POLITICAL MONOPOLY and the US FED MONEY MONOPOLY why is it we still vote them into power?
I have to say I keep coming back to the "Stockholm Syndrome". Its a global thinga-ma-jiggy, so just don't believe it is only America, as every global central bank acts in "concert"!
Just what is this great "benevolence" that this Congress and Congress past allows us Americans? To let our kids pay off this debt. Is that it? Is that what our Freedom and Liberty is now? Such "benevolence" and HUBRIS ...
Rig Count down
Rig utilization is down for the 2nd week in a row in the Middle East. Demand seems to be waning.
http://www.ods-petrodata.com/odsp/weekly_rig_count...
I'm leaning more towards a double dip recession. The stimulus has not gone to create any lasting jobs. I read a report showing where California's stimulus money went for the county I live in. I recall, reading out of the millions given to my county only $65000 went for energy projects. I would guess by line item about 98% of the money went to the schools so they wouldn't have to lay off more people right now. I am becoming more convinced we may see a second shoe drop next quarter. IMHO
Re: tabibi's new piece on Rubin
And here's the perfect book end to Taibbi's RS article, from one of the men who Obama has ignored to his and our great detriment.
Goldman Trades Shouldn’t Get U.S. Aid, Volcker Says
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
I thought the board was generally sympathetic to teabag rallies. Was I mistaken, or you guys endorsing this article didn't read it in full?
This is his view of teabaggers:
"A vast horde of frowning, pissed-off middle-aged white people with their idiot placards in hand"?
"These are the kinds of voters whom Obama's gang of Wall Street advisers is counting on: idiots"?
"They hate him... because he's black, and wasn't born in America, and is married to a woman who secretly hates our country"?
Whatever he says in 5 pages before this one, quotes above are enough for me to dismiss his rant. I wish those who endorse this kind of write-ups (laced with profanity, too) at least made some qualifiers about such, let's say controversial parts.
Re: Meeting with Paramount Gold & Silver
Hi Jock - I worked for the company that put the first holes into Noche Buena (near El Chanate in Sonora) / Bill Reed got us into the deal as a contract geologist. It then ended up with Hecla etc. Work I have seen suggests its pretty low grade, but with more tons it might make a mine someday. We also vended an intriguing property to Minefinders given they have the gift of ore finders and now miners too - I continue to trade the stock, but once in production the smaller ones seem to lose allure. I have been keeping Fronteer on the radar since you mentioned this before (often I look at people involved before other parameters) and Jim Lincoln - V.P Exploration is another top hand. Have a good weekend.
Tiger Woods: you've no need to apologize !
How can the world expect fierce behaviour on the course by day, yet meek abstinence when cougars offer the spoils of victory at night?
You haven't mauled or murdered anyone. You haven't even tortured any dogs!
After all, you're not "Pussycat Woods". You are a TIGER!
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
I'm not sympathetic at all to that movement, but that's beside the point isn't it?
Vad, you must be very gentle in the best of ways to be offended by Taibbi's language. But you should have read the whole article as he offers a blistering indictment of Obama's sell-out to Wall Street.
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
I read it all and I endorse it except for the totally unnecessary profanity. To dismiss this otherwise great financial/political piece of journalism because of one or two failings seems to me to be throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
His comments on tea baggers may be too general and over the top but I think there is an element of truth there when you look at the political nature of the rallies. Ask yourself: Where were these people when GWB was still in office and the financial house of cards was collapsing? Hardly a grass roots movement,yet.
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
I am not "gentle" about the language, believe me. But there is a difference between what we use in our private conversations and what we drag into public forum. Language you use during beer rounds with friends may not be suitable for the public speech, don't you think? But, why do you focus on the point I made in passing? Mostly I talked about his descriptions of the people in that movement, ones I quoted.
And, you really think I read last page only?..
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
Well, maybe I don't view it as great piece of journalism because he seems to discover now what was painfully obvious a year ago, as "team" was introduced. So all these findings look a bit trivial to me - kind of "you don't say... by the way, where were you last 12 months??"
Re: Tiger Woods: you've no need to apologize !
"How can the world expect fierce behaviour on the course by day, yet meek abstinence when cougars offer the spoils of victory at night?"
No offense Jock, but I'm not sure why anyone can be even slightly interested in or impressed by watching other people swatting a little white ball down a "golf course." And I couldn't care less about "Tiger" or his personal life. Just another media distraction from the real issues confronting us...
Not one to judge another or rate the character of another, but I don't blame the companies he endorses for dropping him either...
KC
I wish the fervor of entertainment news could be unleashed
on investigating & exposing wall st.
Google Phone - strategy selling unlocked GSM carrier agnostic
http://bit.ly/8IgVLu
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
Good point. Article is just a very good summary of what happened going back to Rubin and Clinton. Matt ties it to the present rather forcefully. Good as an eye opener for many and a reinforcement to those that saw it coming. I rank myself culpable since I once thought Rubin was A-OK and did not wise up (financially speaking) until the crisis hit and later when Obama's appointments unfolded, especially Geitner and Summers (not to mention some others in non-financial positions). The administration and congress, as with it's predecessors, are servants of Wall Street not to mention the military cartel.
Peter Schiff debates David Epstein of columbia U.
1 hour debate
http://bit.ly/5wL06N
David is a prof of political economy.
Just a fair warning, one person is a teacher/economist and the other a business owner and money mgr, running for senate in ct
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
While it's all true, there is one more, and deeper, reason why I am skeptical about this kind of articles. Let me try...
I continue wondering: how come all this indignation, all the angry write-ups and videos are so shallow and misdirected - in that they express anger aimed at certain people or organizations, try to paint them as main cause of troubles, try to blame whole debacle at this person, that group or this bank. This is so juvenile... As if we had Tom Thompson instead of Ben Bernanke, John Johnson instead of Tim Geithner and Silverboy Socks instead of Goldman Sachs, things would be oh so different. No really? This is the SYSTEM that is all warped up and corrupted, and no matter who is put in this or that position in that system - it will lead to the same results with insignificant variations. If Fed itself is a concept harmful for financial health of the country, what difference does it make who is chairing it at the moment? If the framework in which banks operate is structured in a way that puts at risk whole financial system, what difference does it make whether we have GS or JPM or MS or whatever else as the most powerful bank - and who heads those banks either while we are at it? Whoever you put in charge, will get just as corrupt just as fast - because people act accordingly to motivations set by the system in which they operate. Whatever you do to organization that you consider evil, it will be replaced by just as bad one - because the framework remained the same. Was it Gorbachev who ruined USSR or was it a rotten system that crumbled under its own weight? Would it exist for much longer if someone more conservative came to power instead of Gorbachev?
That's why all these authors discovering another name to blame, putting hopes in someone or expressing disappointments in someone else do not impress me much - until and unless they start talking about real problem. Their anger rings hollow with me because it's nothing but distraction from the real problem. The more we focus on punishing individuals the less we think of fixing the system - especially when the focus is on such insignificant positions as executives of AIG with their bonuses... but it scores such great political points and pictures the crier for punishment as one of the people... heh. Color me skeptical about reforms of such "depth" and about authors putting focus of attention on particular people or banks. Misdirected anger is even worse than meek ignorance.
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
ALOHA !!
From what I have read in Matt's articles generally he would have made a great Hitler Youth commandant! Where questioning the political state was VERBOTTEN, especially the one from whence he gets his celebrity status.
The very reason that we have such Freedoms here in America can be described this way back in 1770.
"A vast horde of frowning, pissed-off middle-aged white people with their idiot placards in hand"?
In fact I am not so sure he did not lift that from an account of one of King George's Admirals sitting in a British Navy Man O War off Boston Harbor.
I did not know it was illegal to protest. One could ask the same of the Vietnam War protesters who did not show up until May 1964 after Eisenhower sent advisers to Vietnam back in 1959, five years later and over a year later after JFK committed 16,000 US troops to Vietnam. At first the Vietnam War protesters were just crazy hippy types and students coming up to draft age. Then KENT STATE wasn't until 1970 11 years after our first involvement in Vietnam. The majority of people in America did not fully oppose the Vietnam War until 1971 when polls showed that 72% of Americans felt the Vietnam War was a mistake. Nixon ended the War officially in 1975, another four more years later. Had there not have been any protests at all we would still be in Vietnam today. Now look where we are.
If Matt were in charge of protests during the Vietnam War he wouldn't have started until 1976! I cannot believe guys like this have any credibility left. Rolling Stone ... isn't that the same magazine that hated LED ZEPPLIN? Of course Rolling Stone has made its mark in the journalism world covering monetary and banking agendas.
I agree with VAD he loses all credibility with his vocabulary of filth in my book! Matt wants on the bandwagon that started years before he was even voting. TOO LITTLE ... TOO LATE MATT! Go write about LADY GAGA!
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
Vad, I submit to you that in times past, the system was much the same as it is today. I believe that people DO matter. Volker vs Bernanke is one case in point.
And I dare say, "the system" is people. Certainly, people with an institutionalized way of doing business, but people nonetheless. And I feel strongly that people should be held to account for their actions. For example: trials at Nuremberg dismissed claims by defendants that "we were just following orders." I feel that in our case, the people who committed this "control fraud" should not get a pass, and a big enough public outcry might just force the hands of the politicians into actually enforcing the laws on the books. Prosecuting people who committed crimes is critical to maintaining the rule of law.
As for people making a difference - Obama could have listened to Volker instead of Summers. He could have pressed banking reform hard, instead of focusing on health care. Choices by people matter. People and what they do - matter.
Certainly systemic reform is important too. I feel we really do have enough capacity here to do both.
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
VAD,
Your stance is confusing in my opinion basically your assumption is a lament that I hear the teen's say all the time. "Don't hate the player, Hate the game." Why not hate them both. I don't see the "System" as a static closed system where you put input here, you get output there. This system is re- engineered constantly and the designers of this is the players themselves. How can the system be fixed when all means of modification is in the hands of the players themselves. So if changes are to be made the players are the ones that need to be replaced first. At least Taibbi is naming the players. All other media seems to be part of the system. I for one will not dismiss his efforts no matter how much he cusses.
Bob
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
ALOHA !!
Volcker is the same "money machinery" that Bernanke is only a different model. They both serve the US FED and don't get conned into believing Volcker is a Saint of WE THE PEOPLE! He's no more saintly than Greenspan is. In fact they both served US FED Chairman Burns together planning interventions way back before 1980 ever happened! Volcker did what he had to do to break the back of the festering "gold is money" movement. He had to retain fiat power against the masses and he did. The only reasons those FED FUNDS RATES went as high as they did was to convince those who held gold and silver money to sell and hold an FRN again. Those FED FUNDS RATES could have gone to 40%. What difference does it make when you have a printing press? Add in a bit of COMEX rule changes and MONEY MAGIC happens! The COMEX has been a veritable cornucopia of fraud for many decades now. The COMEX motto is "PRICE control not "discovery"!
The system is THE PEOPLE, I agree, so the only people that can change the system do not reside in NYC or DC they reside in WE THE PEOPLE! Its back to basics which can only be found within the US CONSTITUTION and the DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE, the original law of the Republic. The US FED is an illegal MONOPOLY ... period! ENFORCE THE US CONSTITUTION ...
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
Kaimu, I fathom that you would agree with Taibbi's political opinion on a majority of issues he writes about, yet you can't let go his one fluff piece on your beloved Tea-Baggers. Quite frankly that article was hilarious. In fact you had a much milder take on the double meaning of the word on more than one occasion. Don't remember? How about Tea-bagging and prison in the same sentence. Maybe you are upset that he is stealing your material. As far as his description: A vast horde of frowning, pissed-off middle-aged white people with their idiot placards in hand"? It sure was an apt description of the 30 min event I attended here in Tucson. Surely you have to know that the original earnest, independent, Tea-bagging cause has been usurped by Know Nothing Bushites who take up all issues in juxtaposition to Obama. That was Taibbi's point.
Bob
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
Vad,
Taibbi's comment regarding teabaggers is just another distortion and an extension of the Obama supporters attempts to discredit protests by a broad spectrum of US citizens.
My only negative on teabagging is it doesn't go far enough. Here, for example there was more concern about the possibility of actual tea being thrown in the river than about the need to stop the trampling on our rights. Some protest!
As one who voted for this black man (He is also half white if color is a big deal to anyone.) when he ran for Illinois Senate, I fear him as president. His wife has made her contempt for America no secret. IMO he is the worst in a long list of bad National Chief Executives.
Here is the website of a Constitutional lawyer who has done something no congressman is likely to do — he read the entire House Health Care Bill.
His main concern goes beyond the financial cost. He worries about the many violations of the US Constitution and the lasting effects this bill will have. There are far reaching precedents this bill would set allowing intrusion into the lives of all of us — and all who follow us.
http://tiny.cc/14acL
Bloomberg has a top story on Nakheel/Dubai
I'd post a link, but am a luddite and don't know how to "tiny url" it for eveyone here.
The bottom line is that tomorrow is D-Day for Nakheel's main 'sukuk' and although a deal has been floated at 70 cents on the dollar with the other 30 cents to be floated in new securities, I'm thinking that's it'll be a tough sell given the state of the banks involved (can they even afford to do that?).
At the tail end of the piece, it mentions that there may be cross-defaults on some other securities, too. That reminded me immediately of General Growth Properties situation right before they declared BK in Feb '09.
If I were a betting man (and I am!), I'd say next week is going to be pretty rough and I don't think the Sheikh is going to ante up and kick in.
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
While I agree with most of his criticisms, I view him as one who has found a parade and jumped in front.
Many others capitalize on the emotions involved in any issue. Some in more discrete and polite ways (Obama's listing of public grievances during the campaign) and some with great bombast (Rush Limbaugh).
There are scores of books, articles and bloggers who seek attention with similar exaggerations and over simplifications.
I often find a basic agreement with certain of people's views, but can't swallow the whole personality as a political heavyweight or qualified candidate. (Sarah Palin)
To lump the teabaggers into such a negative and base group is just lazy journalism and totally unfair. (If in fact this is journalism at all.)
Re: Bloomberg has a top story on Nakheel/Dubai
nebish,
To make a "TINY" just copy the the URL of the site you wish to shrink...
Go to http://www.tiny.cc/
Paste in the URL (a clear direction is there for you)
You can then drop the shortened link into your message.
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
To the comment, 'the system was the same in the past', I am not sure, or perhaps 'past times' should be thought of cyclically. Volker was a forceful person vs. Bernanke. I get that. But Volker operated in an environment that was different than today. There was more respect for separation of powers and administrative authority in the 70's, to my knowledge. The examples that I have are these: the executive branch did not intrude in a detailed way into what the EPA or the FDA were doing- those agencies were run by scientists. Judgeships were not scrutinized like today ( a good thing, in my view). But this is why Volker could do what he did. He could not do it today, in this environment- look how he has been silenced and he does not even have actual power.
We have debated these points here before. Do you want separation of powers and administrative authority, and allow regulators to do their jobs absent political pressure. Or do you want politicians basially calling the shots on every issue? Some of you have argued for the latter, "at least we elect Congress". I understand that point of view, but I don't think it works in practice because politicians who face reelection every few years will continue to promise the world and mortgage the future, our kid's future. Regulators and judges don't operate that way, when they are doing their jobs right. Political decision making and interference in administrative decision making is the primary reason that our children's economic future has been destroyed. It is not because of out of control judges and regulators. It is because of politicians and political pressure on those groups. There are many examples of it. I think that is the better way to do things is to have strict separation of powers and allow regulators who are career people to do their jobs. But this presupposes that you have competence in the exercise of administrative authority, which you don't always have. Perhaps it is a question of which system of incompetence will damage us less. Did out of control regulators burden our children with a debt that will destroy them? No, politicans did. Who can argue with that? Bernanke as a regulator did not add to our national debt, becasue he is a puppet, he operates in a current environment that wants 'consistent thinking', or whatever term you wish to use. It was different in the 70's. Volker would have been forced from office if he had been there in place of Bernanke, had he attempted to inflict pain to the economy. Perhaps this is all cyclical over the decades and what we have today we had in the 1800's, I don't know. But based on the large size of our population and the LT fiscal problems that we face, I am not very hopeful for the future.
"Vad, I submit to you that in times past, the system was much the same as it is today. I believe that people DO matter. Volker vs Bernanke is one case in point."
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
I agree with Vad's view that the problem is that we have a "SYSTEM that is all warped up and corrupted, and no matter who is put in this or that position in that system - it will lead to the same results with insignificant variations."
All systems become more and more corrupt as they mature. Rome, feudal kings, absolute monarchs all became so corrupt that they failed. The American system of capitalism thrived when it was a democratic system that respected the rights of workers and stock owners. It is no longer democratic. Both workers and stock owners have lost their rights. Corporations are operated now to benefit only the aristocrats of capitalism and the US Government is managed so as to benefit the large corporations at the expense of everyone else.
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
The significant difference between the time when Volcker was Fed Chairman and now is the role that money and lobbying plays in politics. Corruption is nothing new in Washington (see "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington"), but the influence of special interests is now more pronounced.
We don't need an Obama or an FDR, we need Teddy Roosevelt.
I would also dispute the claim that Taibbi is just now coming to this story. Indeed, his article on Goldman Sachs earlier this year raised the profile of their role in the corruption of government more than anything that has come before or since.
His take on the tea party movement may be offensive to some, especially those who endorse its original objective in protesting the bailout of HB&B. But it's morphed into a strident organ of the far-right, one that proudly claimed victory for their role in losing the NY 23rd Congressional seat (long a GOP stronghold) to the Democrats. A Pyhrric victory if ever there was one. What's that, or GW for that matter, got to do with reforming the toxic relationship between Washington and Wall Street?
It's too bad so much other baggage has been dragged in to an issue in which all of us, regardless of whether we identify as progressive or conservative or apolitical, should properly be joined in fighting - the unprecedented influence money has in our political system.
Re: Bloomberg has a top story on Nakheel/Dubai
Nebish, don't really need the tiny URL unless the link contains certain characters which are a problem for the site here. In most cases you can just paste the link into your post. For more instructions on link posting and Tiny URL try the help file, see the menu at the top of this page "Site Index" >> "Website Help" >> ""Chart and Link Posting" or use the direct link below.
http://caracommunity.com/content/chart-and-link-po...
In any case I think this might be the article you are referring to.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601104&si...
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy/Person's role in history
Dave,
volumes are writen on the topic of a person's role in history. Cause-effect relationship is never simple and straightforward in any feedback-feedforward loop. Still, there is a general consensus with which I agree.
System continues producing and pushing to the top leaders that maintain status-quo until system is ripe for change. Mechanics of ripening:
- system gets tired and weakens;
- problems arise and become more and more serious;
- broad layers of population become aware of problems;
- unhappiness produces new leaders, first crop of which is incapable of changing the system - by the reason of not understanding real causes and/or being corrupt;
- lack of success leads to search for another ideas and leaders - until real cause of problems becomes understood widely enough to create conditions allowing leaders understanding this cause make their way to the top.
This succession described above explains my point about focusing on the problem. Let me illustrate it using historical content I am the most familiar with. Stalin's main rival in struggle for power was Trotsky.
Q: Would things turn out different should Trotsky come to power instead of Stalin?
A: Not really, since both were a product of the same system, same ideology and while much more educated and sophisticated, Trotsky still was the same blood-thirsty monster.
Q: Would things turn out different should someone with democratic inclinations come to power?
A: Moot point, because no such person could come even close to influential circles. In fact, they were hunted down and murdered or jailed at the general population level, let alone anywhere close to power.
Only good 60 years later, when the system ripened for change someone like Gorbachev could come to the top. This process is a bit different in democracies (which USSR was not), but the concept remains: if you want real lasting change, you need broad understanding of the causes, grassroots movement that creates new leaders and broad enough support allowing them to come to the top. Ask yourself how come one presidential candidate with much deeper understanding (I am talking about Ron Paul of course) was eliminated at such early stage and remained a marginal figure largely unknown to masses? Simple: masses are not there yet, understanding of real problem hasn't become broad enough yet.
Thus, my point: all this focus on particular leader leads to endless cycle of hope-disappointment. Don't we see just this among many posters on this very board? This is natural process though, and it will continue for a while - until real cause of the problems becomes obvious enough to allow a leader with right program to emerge and come to power. Then real change will occur - but not because right person finally comes to power even though it's going to look like that. It will happen because system finally ripened. Thus, if one wants to help the process and speed it up - one's energy is better spent on discovering and explaining real cause, broadening understanding, helping create wide grassroots movement aimed in the right direction. In this light I'll take one Kaimu's post over 100 angry indictments of yet another crook. System will continue producing crooks until system is changed. Expressing anger against banks and bankers, does it ever occur to those angry ones that there must be a reason why bankers act in a way they do? What, banks are full of bad people? Only bad people go work for the bank? Take them out and put good people in and everything will be OK? Bobbyo, who is teenager now?? :)
To conclude, allow me one more example from that same Russia/USSR history. Lenin's older brother, Alexandr, was a part of anti-tsarist terrorist movement and participated in bomb attack on tsar. Whole movement was built on idea "let's kill them until system collapses". In a way, it was a continuation of so-called Decabrist movement described as "for the people - but without the people". No change ever came out of this way of dealing with particular people; then Lenin said his famous "we will chose different way". Indeed, his different way was to create a party, start broad propaganda, launch newspaper - in short, involve people. We know the result.
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
Unless we make meaningful changes to the system we will just get a new bunch of crooks. As it is those with seniority run the show and any newly elected person can either go with the flow or go out the door.
Goals
For those who want a little tool to help in planning goals for next year (we are assuming there will be a next year) for use within the structure of our uber-corrupt, tea-bagging, debt-laden, tiger woods obsessed, fiat failing, market manipulated, politically disingenuous (but mesmerizing), constantly in-flux SYSTEM of human frailties and foibles...
I present a (tiny) distraction:
http://www.isetmygoals.com/goal-setting.html
happy day all!
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
N2S,
"His take on the tea party movement may be offensive to some, especially those who endorse its original objective in protesting the bailout of HB&B. But it's morphed into a strident organ of the far-right, one that proudly claimed victory for their role in losing the NY 23rd Congressional seat (long a GOP stronghold) to the Democrats. A Pyhrric victory if ever there was one. What's that, or GW for that matter, got to do with reforming the toxic relationship between Washington and Wall Street?"
Come on, too broad and general a statement. How does a statement about one election by someone fit all protesters?
How would you like the idea that anyone who protests the teabaggers (you) and calls them members of "a strident organ of the far-right" is obviously a far left socialist morphing into a communist?
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
So it comes down to 'one special person', not a system that ensures or at least optimizes decisions by government. I'm not disagreeing with you. I've often wondered whether it would be better to have government by a benevolent monarchy or by career people of some kind. I continue to make the observation that through reckless spending congress and state legislatures have mostly destroyed our children’s future. Our entire economy for at least three decades has been built on the false assumption of continuous growth by passing the bill for current growth to the future. In my opinion, it accelerated with Reagan (“the deficit is big enough to take care of itself”). No Mr. President, the deficit is theft from our children; it gives us a standard of living that is greater than it should be at the expense of our children. Don’t you understand this? I don’t see what changes it. The average person is totally ignorant of this concept. I don’t see how the disparate views of 300 million people will impart positive change to government- long term sustainable change. Change that involves sacrifice- a lot of sacrifice. This nation must solve apparently insolvable problems if it is going to continue into the future. Woe to children whose standard of living has been taken by the current generation, the selfish generation.
"We don't need an Obama or an FDR, we need Teddy Roosevelt."
Where do you buy morals ?
You can't.... just ask those that have/control power..
Bloomberg has a top story on Nakheel/Dubai
Here's the link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
Thanks for all the help w/ tiny URL!!! Much obliged!
Freedom lost
Perhaps it is due to having just read the dire warnings of the likely loss of our freedom if the Health Care bill Passes (http://tiny.cc/14acL), but while filling my gas tank this morning I noticed for the first time a sign which reads:
"Any person age 40 years or younger purchasing alcohol or tobacco products must present a picture ID to the cashier."
Age 40?
It seems to me this all began with set belts required by law.
Now we can lose our right of privacy — exposing all financial and health info to government scrutiny, must strap kids into a plastic car cocoon, will soon be protected from overeating and weight gain...
And must prove up to age 40 that you are old enough to have a smoke and a beer.
Getting old seems it is becoming a blessing since life is becoming too restrictive for me.
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy
No, we need someone with the guts and determination of Andrew Jackson. He eliminated the central bank and paid off the national debt. That was the last time it was paid off.
Re: Tiger Woods: my poiint was ironical
knifecatcher -
I agree on Tiger. I haven't played golf since I was 12. Nor have I ever watched the Tiger on TV.
My idea of sports is my running and biking to stay in shape as self-defense against the "sickcare industry".
After all the hoo-ha began, I went to Tiger's site, and was a few of his ads. Where was my airsickness bag? He and his sponsors were selling Peter Pan and boy scout and all sorts of ridiculous myths.
I'd understood why every cougar on the prowl in every country club on the circuit wanted to capture him. Apparently, he was willing prey.
Distribution and Hot Waitresses
Why this "Rectangle Trading Zone" is Distribution from strong hands to weak.
Why CNBC is a great indicator.
And a humorous re-look at the "Hot Waitress Indicator"
http://screencast.com/t/YjlkMWUzYjc
Here comes the violence or is this just random?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8410946.stm
The beginning of the end of the Euro?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambrose...
"The deeper truth that few in Euroland are willing to discuss is that EMU is inherently dysfunctional – for Greece, for Germany, for everybody."
Wonder how Greece leaving the Euro would effect the markets ?
Re: Here comes the violence - no doubt!
Goldman Sachs decreed that no more than twelve of their tribe assemble in any public place for Holiday celebrations. I'm amazed that some of theirs haven't already been attacked on New York streets Berlusconi-style.
Can you imagine them cackling and joking, ordering bottle after bottle of Crystal or Dom Perignon, while the waiter phones his friend or brother - fired from Lehman or Bear Stearns or Merrill - to spread the word?
Sprott Physical Gold Trust
What you think of this new kid on the yellow brick road?
"The trust plans to list on the NYSE under the ticker “PHYS”, and on the TSX under the ticker “PHY”. The initial public offering price is expected to be $10.00 per unit."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/177967-nothing-lik...
Fairfield Files for Chapter 11
Ouch!
http://bit.ly/7J4ruC
1b bankruptcy impacts Wells Fargo's wachovia and capmark financial group.
Excerpt;
Fairfield Residential LLC, one of the nation's largest apartment owners and developers, filed for bankruptcy on Sunday, the latest casualty of the turmoil engulfing the U.S. real-estate market.
Fairfield, which has built some 64,000 apartments, condominiums and off-campus student-housing units throughout the country, failed amid an inability to refinance debt or sell investment properties. That left the private San Diego, Calif., company with a litany of near-term maturities on debts related to various development projects and other investments.
Dubai to Repay $4.1 Billion Nakheel Sukuk
Dubai to Repay $4.1 Billion Nakheel Sukuk
By Haris Anwar
Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Dubai World will pay Nakheel PJSC’s $4.1 billion Islamic sukuk bonds due today, the government of Dubai said in an emailed statement today.
To contact the reporter on this story: Haris Anwar in Dubai at hanwar2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 13, 2009 23:21 EST
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy/Person's role in history
Well said Vadym. Your historical context intrigues me. Especially comparing Lenin and Alexandr's strategical choices. Do you have some reading recommendations?
I agree with your point. A course change will not happen until the masses are dissatisfied to the point of action. And even then, the masses must be organized to avoid periods of chaos and tyrants. In order to be in a position to lead this kind of change, one must first lay the groundwork and organizational foundation from which to build.
Re: Tiger Woods: my poiint was ironical
Amen Jock re: "My idea of sports is my running and biking to stay in shape as self-defense against the "sickcare industry".
Walgreens on one corner and Arby's across the street...
I've always been the guy who is stumped to make conversation when a group starts prattling on about "the game" or this draft pick or that draft pick. But to each his own I guess...
Anyway- I enjoy your posts and particularly liked the visual of the waitstaff spreading the word to Bear Stearns and Lehman...
KC
Re: Freedom lost
Grym - I am a free spirit as well but I don't know about getting old becoming a blessing as a way out. It seems there is still too much to appreciate regardless. I appreciate the old timers like you and wish there were more.
I am frequently disappointed by the people who vote for or support permanent restrictions or tax increases without rational consideration for the long term or unintended consequences of such actions.
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy/Person's role in history
Bert,
not sure I can think of the best book on Lenin right away, but concerning Stalin's coming to power and whole period of his rule I do have recommendation. Edvard Radzinsky, Stalin - the best analysis of the events and people, not just listing what happened but actually analyzing the inner logic of tyrant's thinking that led to absolute bloodiest insanity in history - in the biggest country in the world, no less. Real page turner too, not a boring historical stuff.
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy/Person's role in history
Your description of various leaders in Soviet history is interesting - its something I know little about, unfortunately, so I can't comment, other than to say I'd like to know more.
I also agree that its not bankers who are bad per se. Before them, it was Big Oil, and before them, Industrialists. The folks with power and money (whoever they are in a particular era) tend to try and buy influence and corrupt the system because they can. Power tends to corrupt, as the saying goes.
Yet I do feel that certain types of people are more attracted to positions where they can obtain large amounts of money and influence. Some people are attracted to social work, others to used car sales. You pointed out that within a particular circle, people who didn't have a certain ruthlessness would not survive - the hypothetical democratic-favoring person inside the Communist system.
Perhaps its the same in banking - only "bad people" are able to rise to the top?
Regarding the theory of "the system" (the group think at the time) being dominant versus the Great Man theory in history: I believe great men do arise and they do great things. Would Alexander have conquered without his father's army? Probably not. But without Alexander to lead them would they have been used with the same imagination? Its tough to prove a negative, but my sense is probably not as well.
Can a Great Man transcend his time? That's a more difficult question. Is our current system of thinking not yet conducive to the successful appearance of a Great Man? Again, difficult question. I don't want to give anyone a pass just because the time wasn't yet ripe to act according to principle.
What does all this have to do with my claim that Matt Taibibi's article pointing out the various bad acts of individuals is a beneficial thing?
Prosecution of the guilty is critical to maintaining the rule of law. That is not happening at the moment. Generating some public outrage through what I consider to be a largely factual recounting of the outrageous behavior of some of the "bad apples" does provide a benefit in waking up a public largely asleep to the facts of the matter.
I think prosecution of criminal offenders does encourage better behavior. It does slow down corruption, it does reinforce the rule of law. The saying goes, the best deterrence for crime is not the severity of the punishment, but the likelihood of being caught and punished.
I believe the opposite to be true as well. Not punishing the guilty encourages others to behave in a corrupt manner. Soon the entire system skews more and more corrupt, until you end up with a system where it is the exceptional individual that acts honestly.
I don't think this is a case of either or here. I think it's a case of both-and.
We need to prosecute the folks who are guilty under our current laws, and to motivate that, generating some fact-based public outrage is helpful.
AND, we need to change the thinking of the people of this country.
Think of it this way. By educating the masses about the corruption currently in progress, both information and motivation will penetrate to the masses, and possibly, will motivate the very grass root activity you describe.
Some people are good at exposing situations and provoking outrage. Others are good at grass-roots building and slowly changing systems. I think we need both: Tom Paine and Thomas Jefferson.
"Paine was not expressing original ideas in Common Sense, but rather employing rhetoric as a means to arouse resentment of the Crown. To achieve these ends, he pioneered a style of political writing suited to the democratic society he envisioned, with Common Sense serving as a primary example. Part of Paine's work was to render complex ideas intelligible to average readers of the day, with clear, concise writing unlike the formal, learned style favored by many of Paine's contemporaries"
WIR #50
"If there is a problem there in Chicago, at the Boeing head office, the only thing, I believe, that would maintain the S&P above 1080 would be another war."
Bill, This has been one of my long term fears. When all else fails — the ultimate solution is war. I this certainly the quickest way to divert attention from all else.
A little something for Ben and Timmy:
"Optimism can keep a fool from accepting failure."
Ernest Hemmingway
Re: Here comes the violence - no doubt!
Barry, Jock,
We have been fortunate so far with only peaceful Tea Party Protests (TPP vs PPT?), but can we seriously expect there will be no violence in the US if the health care budget-breaker passes, bankers remain the favor few and jobs continue to sag?
Re: Freedom lost
Bert,
Thanks for the vote for longevity :-) but I am seeing too many friends who are 15 to 20 years older than I who are in really bad situations. Looking back to when my dad was in his 80s and I was managing his bills and Social Security I see a real deterioration in conditions.
My next door neighbor and another friend are 90 and 91. One has a pension and SS, but has lost big time on his "conservative" investments — GM preferred stock, stocks and bonds in local bank and a local mortgage company.
The other had his life savings in mutual funds (down over 30%), his wife has Alzheimers, he is now in a one room nursing home apartment and nearly out of money. He was self employed has no pension.
Both lived through the depression and are WW2 vets (One enlisted before Pearl Harbor and served 5+ years.) Both are mentally sharp and the 91 year-old volunteers at the local library and teaches literature and poetry at Center for Learning in Retirement at the Community College.
Both have been talking about being "more than ready to go," but are worried about children and grand children's futures under present outlook.
As for voters being responsible:
The mass of minority voter blocks Obama's team signed on has more interest in "free" goodies than in issues. We are acting like a Democracy rather than a Republic and those in power will give away the whole future if it will keep them in power.
This is not racism — it is obviously factual that was their intent in the registration push.
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy/Person's role in history
Dave,
well thought through post. I don't think we differ too much in our views. When you say "Perhaps its the same in banking - only "bad people" are able to rise to the top?", and I say "Crooked system will continue producing crooks", we are talking about the same thing. Reading through your piece and mine you'll see many such parallels.
The only two points I want to emphasize are:
1. There is a danger of misrepresenting whole debacle as caused by misbehavior of a few bad apples. That will lead to misdirection of anger, misdirection of action and cosmetic changes to the system while focusing on punishing of those penetrators. End result - crooked system is still in place, it continues motivating people to do things harmful to financial system and economy, and it's only a matter of time when it blows up again.
2. Quite a few of those designated to take the brunt of public anger, when it comes to matter of law, will be found having not done anything unlawful - or at least nothing on the scale of the disaster allegedly caused by their action. System in place made a lot of harmful actions legal; much of this area is extremely complicated and pretty much grey, not easily qualified under existing laws. Just try and point out the exact law some of the highest figures in the financial world on the Treasury/Senate side broke, and think of the odds to get them prosecuted... Yet public anger is there, and it's being (mis)directed at the guy at AIG that was hired to clean up the mess and promised a bonus? I am afraid this "justice" will only create more mess. Urgent creation of a law that goes back in time and changes rules of taxation because "it's the right thing to do" is one glaring example of injustice done in the name of "higher justice." IMO, a lot of scapegoats will be designated and punished - meanwhile,
a) no one will care that plenty of these people merely acted in a framework of a system that existed at the time and
b) real culprits will get away with it and in many case will be the ones expressing indignation and doling out punishment! Doubt it? - Just look at wrathfully thundering Barney...
But, let's gear for a new trading week. I'll leave it to greater minds to find the way to mess things up further (Grin)
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy/Person's role in history
Dave Fairtex,
"Yet I do feel that certain types of people are more attracted to positions where they can obtain large amounts of money and influence."
Notice how many second generation people we have in congress. Politics as a profession was something the founders didn't need to deal with. With no term limits those with the cunning ability attain positions of power far beyond what was ever expected.
Unless we can change that, I see no possibility that any elected individual can significantly change the long term behavior of the legislature.
All too often we have elected what is no more than a figurehead and a lightning rod. The real power wasn't Clinton or Bush and is not Obama. — the power remains beyond our reach or control.
BAC joins CIT leaving the FDIC program
From their home page........
www.bankofamerica.com/
takes some searching to find it.
"Beginning January 1, 2010 Bank of America will no longer participate in the FDIC's Transaction Account Guarantee Program. Coverage under the FDIC's basic deposit insurance rules will continue to apply.
Learn More »"
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy/Person's role in history
I guess my problem in all of this is, there HAVEN'T been any scapegoats. I'd like to see just one goat. One! All the bad boys from banking are still in place!
Other than this, I agree Vad, leaving in place the current framework and being distracted by show trials will not end up fixing anything and to the extent the anger ends at show trials, I agree with you.
Ok, now off to trading, as you say.
Oh Grym - one more thing. As for our Founding Fathers not having to deal with 2nd generation politicians, how about John Quincy Adams, the 6th President of the United States? I realize he wasn't a founding father, but he was the son of one. :) Does that count?
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy/Person's role in history
I want to leave this topic in this day, not to drag it to new one, so will post it here still.
This is what I just heard on TV.
Obama about bankers: They still don't get it... they won't lend... They caused the problem.
Summers: It's irresponsible risk taking that caused the problem.
Absolutely in line with "let's find people to blame without mentioning/fixing the system that motivates them to do what they did".
Re: Matt Taibbi on Obama’s Economy/Person's role in history
Yes, I guess it would. Perhaps he was one of, if not the first, professional politician. I don't know that he was other than involved in government having started when his father was in office I believe.
I believe John Adams was a lawyer and a farmer before running for office. He never made much money.
At least there were no great direct financial benefits back then. Harry
Truman was the first to receive a pension which began some time after he left the White House owing over $20,000 in entertainment bills.
Now we know who picks up the tab when the president decides to through a party.