Bill Cara’s Morning Call
[8:10am ET] Today will be another one of those opening gap days, enjoyed by Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) who were trading the market all night, pumping up oil and precious metals and equity prices on reports of the Bank of Japan emergency meeting that resulted in a decision to print Yen in hopes of weakening it.
I think, judging from the late afternoon action in New York, particularly in the financials, that HB&B was made aware of the Japanese intention and they played you and their clients in New York to their hearts content.
Global regulators are going to have to implement new measures that enforce transparency or else the public will simply stop investing in the market. Prices are no longer based on corporate fundamental, quantitative or technical data, or even economics, and that’s wrong.
What I am saying to any regulator who is listening is that illegal insider trading linked to HB&B and the G-20, manifested in forex market trading is now the determinant of equity prices, and those are being moved hither and yon without any regard for quality or value. That’s not right, and any regulator worth his or her salt knows it.
One of the reasons I quit reporting daily on prices in this blog is that they are phony. Since the end of June, equity and commodity prices have been set by movements in the forex market. Judging from the collapsing volume in the equity market, I think others are withdrawing too.
This will not end well, and the regulators, once again, will have failed in their responsibilities to the public.
Now I can return to bed. For me to have to get up at 3am ET to monitor this situation is ridiculous. It is also ridiculous to see the politicians and central bankers of the world play a game of "My bubble is going to be bigger than your bubble".
CTA Trading Desk Report
Dollar down (DXY –0.60%), US Bonds down (TLT –1.54%) =commodities up (USO +0.82%, GLD +1.40%, SLV +3.42%) and equities up (S&P +1.21%). Can it really be that easy, day after day, and month after month? Where is the risk?
The sea of liquidity is forcing asset prices higher, a reinforcing tide of price momentum assuring each dip is bought, as investors chase performance because they are dissatisfied with negative real rates of return on money market or saving accounts.
Professional traders assess risk each minute, ready to unload securities or assets they deem overvalued, replacing them with relatively under-priced assets. Once the arbitrage is no longer valid, the transaction is taken off, as money is redeployed into better risk-reward trades. By continually hedging risk, the professional trader hopes to generate a superior risk-adjusted rate of return.
It goes without saying some potential trades have a higher probability of success, others a higher potential rate of return. The trick is to find the optimal mix, making money and being able to sleep at night.
Sometimes the expected return is so low, and risk so high, it doesn’t make sense to deploy your hard earned capital. When playing blackjack, would you take another card on 18 with the dealer showing a 6 face up? Although you might draw an ace or a 1, 2, or 3 in isolated instances, over the long term you are toast. Welcome to the odds of being 100% long in the fall of 2009. Longs probably are now smirking, shorts beyond frustrated, the big boys gaming the system, laughing all the way to the bank.
There are always great opportunities if you have the capital to invest when most of the crowd is short on funds. But, wait until you see the whites of their eyes before you pull the trigger.
Have a great evening.
Comments
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
KGC - Upgraded to Overweight @ JP Morgan. PT = $24
New Coverage:
ADBE - JMP Securities Initiates with a Market Outperform. PT = $46
BA - HSBC Initiates with an Underweight. PT = $45
Resumed:
ECA - Barclays Resumes Coverage with an Overweight.
Mmmmmhhhhhh
I thought the market is always right, traders are wrong
I see the forex market as another indicator of the truth of what is happening out there. Movements in the relative value of the currency tell us what central banks are doing. The continuous climb in "assets", inflation if you will, also tell us what is happening with the currency.
"Prices are no longer based on corporate fundamental, quantitative or technical data, or even economics, ..."
Well, I look at these as variables that affect the price of an issue. In these times, the weighting of each variable has changed, which of course, can affect the dynamics of their interrelationships. Will they change again..yes
So, our job as traders is to profit from it.
RBA raises rates 25 basis points
Australia Increases Benchmark Interest Rate to 3.75%
. . “tightening entrenches the RBA's position as the only central bank in the Group of 20 to be raising interest rates, with financial markets expecting more increases in early 2010 as other countries hug rates close to zero.”
WSJ
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125963772543170801...
Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
Bill, I'm beginning to understand
"Global regulators are going to have to implement new measures that enforce transparency or else the public will simply stop investing in the market. Prices are no longer based on corporate fundamental, quantitative or technical data, or even economics, and that’s wrong."
Bill,
At 71 I'm beginning to understand why my dad refused to invest in the stock market. I think the only investment he ever made beyond a savings account was in U.S. War Bonds.
He remembered the wild margin trading and manipulation which brought on the Great Depression and never again trusted the system. I remember him saying, "The big boys run the game and the little guy is being played for a sucker."
I am beginning to feel this way about nearly everything — politics/government, investing, food and medicine quality — if not out right lies, there is enough misinformation to strangle trust for years to come.
Fibozachi comments on gold's intermediate term prospects
This appeared in today's Zerohedge. See
http://tinyurl.com/yjwjn6o
[Open in new window]
Gold bugs are an interesting crowd. They tend to be driven (almost exclusively) by fundamental data points and emotionally laden personal opinions. With gold in a secular bull market since late-September 1999, we at Fibozachi believe that the shiny, yellow metal will see much, much higher prices years down the road. Our long-term personal belief out of the way, the synthetic-cash asset of gold remains the only commodity (if not the only non-cash asset) to have escaped the guillotine over the past two years/ one decade.
Our intermediate-term personal belief, which is far from the hard right edge (the next bar on a chart, coined by Alan Farley), is that the spot PoG (price of gold) will be heavily depressed by the next all-encompassing round of deflationary pressures. We think that a monstrous DX/ $USD rally combined with an “all-the-same-markets” deleveraging of assets across the board will depress gold back toward prior inflection points between 760 and 660 over the next 21 months … before precious metals (as a collective group, denominated in all G-8 currencies) resume their long-standing date with destiny in Q3 of 2011, during the next leg of the fiat currency death spiral. Again, this is merely off-peak anal-ysis, which, at the end of the day, is nothing more than semi-educated personal speculation.
Such personal opinion and off-the-cuff anal-ysis during off-peak hours has absolutely nothing to do with either the Identification, Isolation, Timing, Execution and Management of actual trading signals during peak-hours or the Probabilistic Nature of Trading. Fundamental data points and fevered speculation (albeit warranted) about blatant central bank manipulation versus technical indicators and actual trading signals; we’ll leave the emotionally laden adjectives to others, recommend that any trader read/ re-read Mark Douglas’ seminal work, “Trading in the Zone”, and continue to focus on things that will actually make us money (technicals and price action).
And the dollar keeps on dropping...
Inexorably. While gold and equities keep on rallying.
Why is this again?
WATG
bought some at $12.29. This is an auto parts play in China and it's trading at only 10 times 2010 earnings. They announced a pact with the outfit that buffett partnered with in China and are growing revenues at about 40% per year.
Cara 100 Update
BBBY - Added to Wedbush Morgan's Best Ideas List
Re: WATG
Nice move. And good entry. A hot trade today and lots of volume.
Gaps, a short history
For the record, I note that since Nov 16th we have had five very large gap opens; 3 up, and 2 down. In all cases but one (the gap up on 11/23 was followed by a downward drift), they represented the bulk of the move for the day and resulted in a close that coincided with the opening bias. If that holds again today, expect some churning and a close on the S&P at or around 1109.
Climategate: Follow the Money - WSJ
Speaking of phony numbers from the WSJ.............
Climate change researchers must believe in the reality of global warming just as a priest must believe in the existence of God.
http://tinyurl.com/y9tkhrl
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
Released on 12/1/2009 7:45:00 AM For wk11/28, 2009
Prior Actual
Store Sales - W/W change 0 % -0.1 %
Store Sales - Y/Y 3.3 % 3.1 %
Highlights
ICSC-Goldman reports only mild results for the big Nov. 28 shopping week, down 0.1 percent vs. the prior week for a year-on-year rate of plus 3.1 percent, a rate that's down 2 tenths from the prior week but, benefiting from an easy comparison, still the second best rate of the year. The report said consumers pushed back their holiday shopping, a negative for November but a plus for December. Redbook will be posted at 8:55 a.m. ET.
Redbook
Released on 12/1/2009 8:55:00 AM For wk11/28, 2009
Prior Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change 2.8 % 3.8 %
Highlights
Redbook reports strong results for the Nov. 28 shopping week, with gains driven by strong electronics sales and aggressive markdowns across categories. Redbook's year-on-year tally in the week is plus 3.8 percent, up 1 full percentage point from the prior week for, by far, the strongest rate of the year. Month-to-month, Redbook projects an exceptionally strong 5.2 percent rise vs. October. If there is one negative, it's that deep markdowns will be hurting bottom lines. There was no reaction to the results, at least initially. Chain stores will post their own company data on Thursday.
ISM Mfg Index
Released on 12/1/2009 10:00:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
ISM Mfg Index - Level 55.7 55.0 53.8 to 56.0 53.6
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey jumped more than 3 points in October to 55.7. This is the strongest for this index in more than three years. Showing the most improvement of the composite's components was the production index which advanced over 7-1/2 points to 63.3. But we may see some leveling off in the composite index in November as the new orders index eased from 60.8 in September to 58.5 in October, but still remained well in positive territory. Price increases were steady in the month, showing little change at 65.0 compared to 63.5 in September.
Construction Spending
Released on 12/1/2009 10:00:00 AM For October, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Construction Spending - M/M change 0.8 % -0.4 % -1.5 % to 0.3 % 0.0 %
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Construction spending was sharply higher than expected for September but a large downward revision to August was essentially offsetting. Overall construction spending advanced 0.8 percent in September after slipping a downwardly revised 0.1 percent in August. The decrease in August was now significantly lower than the original estimate of a 0.8 percent gain. The boost in spending in September was led by a 3.8 percent surge in private residential outlays. Private nonresidential declined 1.8 percent and public outlays decreased 0.1 percent in the latest month.
manipulation
I believe there is manipulation of prices. But hasn't it always been so? It's a zero-sum game: over time, many must lose so a few can win. How does knowing that help me prosper?
Pending Home Sales Index
Released on 12/1/2009 10:00:00 AM For October, 2009
Prior Actual
Pending Home Sales Index - Level 110.1 114.1
Pending Home Sales Index - M/M 6.1 % 3.7 %
Highlights
Existing home sales got a giant boost in October from the pending expiration of the first round of buyer credits, a gain that raised questions whether sales rates were pulled forward and would dip in subsequent months. But today's pending home sales report points to continued strength ahead. Pending home sales jumped 3.7 percent in October to 114.1, adding to September's even more impressive 6.0 percent gain. Year-on-year pending home sales are up 31.8 percent. The housing sector appears to be moving off the bottom, underscored by the 4.4 percent rise in private residential construction also reported today at 10:00.
Re: Bill, I'm beginning to understand
My Dad shared the same views, also.... I have traded since 1998, and through it all, have never witnessed equity moves such as we have seen since late 2007... Without Bill and Fleck, I would be selling my house, again... I say this in all honesty... One can be the best chart reader in the world, but without a level playing field, its a game of follow the leader.... Fortunately ( once again, thanks, Bill & Fleck ), I switched to 5 year charts in mid- 2008.. That allowed RTP in December 08', with BHP close behind... It also saved me from early buys in INTC, etc, regardless of what the boys & girls were saying on ' Fast Money ' ( X, INTC, CSCO, etc... )... I, personally, as previously written, never hold more than 10 - 15% of trading capital overnight,( since June 09' )... Sure, I've missed some up-gaps, but 90% of the time, they retrace... Vad was right about trading non-market related equities.. its a minute to minute thing.. This I learned in late 2003 thru 2004... About 5 months ago, I wrote that this year was shapping up as another 2003... It is not... I don't have a clue what its doing now, other than the obvious.. I know how very frustated Bill is with the quants, deceit and late hour manipulations.. I certainly am... I am working with a very good Forex trader now, and will switch priorities in the new year... Thanks for all your good comments, Gyrm..
Physical Gold Delivery Window Closing
In addition to gold and silver coin curtailment at the U.S. mint, the comex now seems to be having an issue with delivering physical metal...
Some months ago a chap described changes in the comex rules for futures contract deliveries. Therein it was described that the EFP, exchange for physical, rules were amended to allow for delivery of GLD shares in lieu of bullion.
Well take a look at something new, at least for me, in Monday’s comex preliminary volume and open interest report. On page 3 of the attachment, notice that in addition to futures contracts listed under the EFP category, a new category is listed: “Delivery Cash Settled” = 2866 december gold contracts. Just so happens 2866 was exactly the number of delivery notices issued on FND as reported in the Nov 27 vol and op int report.
The conclusion we reach for now is that if one is counting on the ability to receive delivery of physical gold from the Comex for whatever purposes, then don't.
http://tinyurl.com/yzwssju
Market manipulation
I've done poorly with my investments this last year, and have found it to be more profitable playing Playstation. Maybe you guys should consider getting one as well?
Btw Bill. You get up at 3am? That can't be healthy. How many hours do you sleep? I need 10.
Re: Climategate: Follow the Money - WSJ
Well, I could take the time to reply to this nonsense or just use the ignore feature and save everyone the bother.
Done.
Government Self Regulation
Is it possible for a government to self regulate itself and others? Will government employed regulators risk their guaranteed paycheck, health benefits, bonuses and retirement for you and me? I don't believe they will.
You see working for the government is like being a part of a club. If you don't play along with the program, the collective quickly isolates you. If you make a mistake or give them an opportunity, you will find yourself no longer a member of the club.
A government that is expected to regulate itself is inherently a conflict of interest. We the people are responsible for this task. Not only with the government but with the markets as well. We have the power of "NO".
This is the problem with always making government larger and consolidating markets. It becomes increasingly more difficult to effectively monitor their actions and hold them accountable. With the size of government today, it is nearly impossible. They know this.
In the spirit of the separation of church and state, it seems to me the solution to our current societal problems begins with a separation of money and state and a separation of business and state.
Re: manipulation
tango6,
Over time, wealth is created in most societies, and equity markets do rise faster than inflation, so clearly the equity market is not a zero-sum game. What is a zero-sum game are options contracts or similar time-based contracts in the sense that when the time expires the winners equal the losers. But even that market is positive to equity trading because it attracts traders of opposing views and motivations, which helps in the price discovery process.
There is manipulation of prices and it has gone on forever, but what is different now is that financially engineered products, like Credit Default Swaps as one example, make it easy for some traders to manipulate prices. These products need greater regulation, but for the past 20 years there has been a parade of players from HB&B with links to Washington taking residency in Washington, and fighting every effort to develop a proper regulatory system. The one they want, and demand to have, is one they manage, and that is not right. Unless and until these people are moved out of Washington, there will be no control over the manipulation of prices, and it will get worse than ever before.
Do you know that in a single month today, the U.S. takes on more debt than the nation accumulated in its history to the point I joined the securities industry Jan 2, 1981. That happened because any control over government debt has been systematically removed. Blame Rubin, Paulson, Greenspan, Summers, Geithner and the others in their clan for all of that. Imagine; these are the people who are telling you the market is a level playing field.
People can prosper by fighting the system, ridding it of these people and then building a new system where debits equal credits, assets equal liabilities, for instance. You could do that pretty quickly if you issued money made up of precious metal and not wooden nickels.
To prosper, you have to make the tough choices. But, I suspect you may want to hit the easy button.
Re: Physical Gold Delivery Window Closing
ALOHA!!
Thanks FIREWORKS ... This points to yet another massive fraud that has been in the making for years.
I wrote many years ago how "price discovery" in the futures market is out the window. In reality the COMEX GOLD& SILVER can be equated to FOREX, in that gold is not a commodity being traded but a currency. When the COMEX rule changes allowing for US Dollars to be "delivered" instead of the actual gold then that signals to me that gold is no longer a commodity. Technically what your link tells me is that at the COMEX GOLD it is unofficially "force majeure". This announcement is 1/1000000th of a baby step away.
The current COMEX and the GLD ETF in a truly Free Republic, where "law" is number one would be shut down and jail sentences handed out. But we live in a Third World Democracy here in America.
So why is it a US Dollar cannot default, like Argentina?
Re: Climategate: Follow the Money - WSJ
Go ahead and ignore your response would amount to little in any event. What I found interesting is and the reason I posted the link was in regards to the impact the fraudulent global warming premise will have an alt energy stocks, research etc. What to do when the very idea that global warming isn't but a commitment in monies has been made to deal with the 'global warming'issue.
Re: Government Self Regulation
ALOHA !!
Under the current monetary system it is impossible to "self regulate" any government or bank.
Re: Bill, I'm beginning to understand
Grym,
Many people think the capital markets are not trustworthy and should be avoided. As for me, there is only one approach that works: manage risk above all else.
Risk is always there, but seems to get extreme about once every ten years or so. If you make decisions during that time that protect you from losing the 30-60% of your wealth that happens in every super-cycle, then over many years you will be a winner.
So I don't think capital markets should be avoided.
US FEDAIG
ALOHA !!
Now the US FED is in the "insurance biz"! Of course this should be a cozy fit as I am sure "behind closed doors" this is another JPM and GS bailout. Knowing full well the US Taxpayer is "done" the US FED is now the US TREASURY!
Is there any reason the USD should rally on this news? I can't even count all the "liabilities" the USD has been accumulating over the past two years in this LIABILITY BUBBLE!
Take a $1 Federal Reserve Note out of your wallet. You're now an AIG shareholder!
Is AIG in rally mode yet?
Why not? As long as our US CONGRESS allows a private bank cartel the privilege of a printing press what else did you expect to happen? If you had a printing press wouldn't you bailout all your friends and relatives?
Everyday now the US TREASURY and the US FED make my case for a major US Dollar debt default. A US Dollar is nothing more than a "debt derivative" backed by the likes of Geithner and Bernanke. This is why I always say our monetary system is based on the "human condition" and nothing more. Why pretend any more?
I cannot wait until Dec 3rd to see Bernanke lie his way into another term at the US FED!
Check it out ...
READ ON:
Fed reduces AIG's debt by $25 billion
Two life insurance companies sold to Federal Reserve Bank of New York in completion of deal.
By Aaron Smith and David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writers
December 1, 2009: 9:47 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- AIG announced Tuesday that it completed a deal wiping out $25 billion of its debt to taxpayers by selling stakes in two subsidiaries to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The troubled insurer gave the New York Fed preferred shares of two of its international life insurance companies, including $16 billion of American International Assurance Co. and $9 billion of American Life Insurance Co. The deal was originally announced in March.
Re: Climategate: Follow the Money - WSJ
Hi All - Found this clip that is enlightening in our quest to understand global warming. Probably not a bad thing to foster nuclear / natural gas electrical generation, but the hysteria is over the top on the carbon thing and wouldn't you know it all boils down to the $$$$. Think we will see Gore go for a nuclear renaissance - hah. Global sea level was about 125 meters below today's sea level at the last glacial maximum about 20,000 years ago. As the climate warmed, sea level rose because the melting North American, Eurasian, South American, Greenland, and Antarctic ice sheets returned their stored water to the world's oceans. During the warmest intervals, called interglacial epochs, sea level is at its highest. Today we are living in the most recent interglacial, an interval that started about 10,000 years ago and is called the Holocene Epoch. Happy Trading
MTW
Short at $9.87. This has been a laggard for a little while now and it's trading at about 40 times 2010 earnings.
Re: Climategate: Follow the Money - WSJ
Good points Luggie, I agree with the idea of nuclear/natural gas electrical generation. I guess the global warming crowd can be thanked for accelerating the renewed interest in nuclear as a generating option as opposed to coal etc.
I think once we begin to legitimately look at options to improve the energy complex as opposed to funding special interests (Gore et al) solutions are indeed going to be found. That is where the real money will be made IMHO.
Re: Climategate: Follow the Money - WSJ
"Well, I could take the time to reply to this nonsense or just use the ignore feature and save everyone the bother.
Done."
That's what my 8-year-old does too.
Quite hawkish statement on rates by Plosser
Tuesday, December 01, 2009 12:20:24 PM
(US) Fed's Plosser: Fed needs to raise rates to protect its credibility and prices
- May need higher rates before unemployment returns to appropriate levels
- Economy is in recovery, expects to see 3% GDP growth over next two years.
- Housing is stable but risks remain in commercial real estate
Margin increase on leveraged ETFs
FYI
Margin requirements for leveraged ETFs increase today.
ETF Type Margin before Margin Now
200% Long 25% 50%
200% Short 30% 60%
300% Long 25% 75%
300% Short 30% 90%
Watch financials. JPM $40 support
the group is not participating.
Re: Quite hawkish statement on rates by Plosser
As usual talk is cheap and who really thinks the FED has the guts to do the above any time soon. I would love to see them raise rates now, won't happen with Bernanke the money man.
On 16 Sep 09 Bernanke said, "Bernanke said that the recession was very likely over, as consumers showed some of the first tangible signs of spending again."
Today David Rosenberg asks/states:
"There are four items that go into the NBER recession call:
1. Employment
2. Real personal income excluding government transfers
3. Industrial production
4. Real sales
3 of the 4 economic indicators that the NBER uses to access business cycles are still in decline
HOW CAN THIS NOT BE A DEPRESSION?
One in every eight Americans …
With a mortgage are either in arrears or in the foreclosure process
Are unemployed or underemployed
Are on a food stamp program"
The only chance to save the dollar is to do a Volcker and raise rates but to do so would crush the economy and end Barrack's chances for re-election, just will not happen with this crew.
Pure propaganda.
Long YONG
Sounds kind of x-rated...
Long at $8.23.
They are an agricultural company in China. Revenues are growing rapidly, the stock is down from its highs of around $12 and it trades at 7 times 2010 earnings and it has had some nice volume today.
Quick setup example
This is one of my favorites, JBE. Still moves so you can watch continuation. Attached is 1 minute chart RIMM, yellow zone shows the setup formation. Consolidation zone between 59.40 and 59.50, entry is 59.50 break with stop under .40. Currently is above 1:3 risk/reward.
UXG
I know UXG has been mentioned on this blog many times. It seems to be lagging other gold stocks. Any opinions on it? I have been accumulating UXG. I am guessing any positive news would cause a nice run.
Re: MTW
closed short at $9.84 for a whopping $50 gain!
Re: Physical Gold Delivery Window Closing
"The current COMEX and the GLD ETF in a truly Free Republic, where "law" is number one would be shut down and jail sentences handed out. But we live in a Third World Democracy here in America." - kaimu
So with Democracy ruled by the HB&B mob, what worries me is the massive Comex short positions they have on gold and silver. Having now set the precedence of paper receipts for delivery, what's to stop them from a gold and silver QE printing press run to suppress the metals and does this explain the strategy of their massive short position wherein they begin to buy up their own paper gold and silver? Of course, this could, as you say, all work until it doesn't!
Edit: This new delivery in paper receipt is nothing more than a derivatives market in gold and silver variously known as credit default swap (CDS), collateralized debt obligation (CDO), or structured investment vehicle (SIV).
http://tinyurl.com/cc34ua
Cheers.
RUTH
Bought some at $2.12. This is a capitulation play. It is now down about 50% in one month. If anyone else has eaten there you know the food is excellent.
Re: Quite hawkish statement on rates by Plosser
I was wondering if during question period that statement will be nailed as far as timing goes, and of course it did - and of course the answer was as ambiguous as it gets:
Fed's Plosser: Fed will change policy when the "cycle turns;" timing of policy change will be challenging - Q
You don't say!
buying gold while it's going up hyperolic?
Here is my dilemma: According to my U$D TA, dollar broke the support in its triangle and it should crash down. I would normally shift my cash (currently 100%) back into gold, miners and commodities. However, I cannot stomach buying gold and miners at or above the trading channels. It least $WTIC:$GOLD's RSI(14) dipped below 30% and oil related holding should be OK.
Any ideas?
Newest Marc Faber newsletter
My subscription just expired. I understand that is very bullish on silver now. Anyone with more details? I guess his call for a dollar rebound did not play out.
Whitney's Loan Mod Theory
Davefairtex,
I recall a clip you shared of Meredith Whitney getting excited about how loan modifications would provide a new opportunity for banks to repackage and offload their non performing loans once modified. So I am mystified why only a tiny fraction of loan mods in trial periods (3 month agreed on paper) are being made permanent. We have clients in month six of their trial period still obediently sending in their support documents and paying as agreed while the same bank's loss mitigator is sending out increasingly harassing foreclosure notices. It apparently appears to said mediator that a borrower is only making partial payments (compare 2.5% to 8%) so they keep adding piling up the arrears with late fees etc. Is it just possible HB&B are forestalling the inevitable book balancing that would unveil heavy losses to their investors? We are being fed a line that Obama will 'reprimand and name' the banks who are taking stimulus billions but not performing their duty to effectively modify loans. I can only guess its about the money but it also seems to me they cannot repackage and offload these new 'performing loans' much less have them rated. Perhaps someone here has a better reasoning for their foot dragging? TIA
Re: buying gold while it's going up hyperolic?
"I would normally shift my cash (currently 100%) back into gold, miners and commodities. However, I cannot stomach buying gold and miners at or above the trading channels." - Jack Black
By cash, do you mean Federal Reserve Notes in a money market? I'm in physical gold, GG, SLW, EWA, and looking to pick up XOM, a railroad, and a cotton/coffee ETF because their physical (PP&E) assets will protect against hyperinflation. I'm all about hedging the FRN collapse before its announced on a Sunday. Cash in a money market is being devalued. Time to roll with the physical assets train. The trend is your friend. If you can't stomach it, try averaging in.
three “surprises” to expect in 2010
"Morgan Stanley said Britain’s travails are one of three “surprises” to expect in 2010. The other two are a dollar rebound, and strong performance by pharmaceutical stocks."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/66931...
Makes sense, we could have a few more months of dollar selling and equities/gold rally followed by a miltimonths correction or at least consolidation in 2010.
Re: buying gold while it's going up hyperolic?
Thanks! Cash like MM indeed since mid october that looked (correctly) like top in gold/miners. However, I missed the Nov 1st buying opportunity (was super busy at work) and lately I was concerned about negative divergence and possibility of a dollar bounce.
I'm still uneasy about gold right now. Rydex PM holding is close to 0.3%, multi year high. We had it 7 times in 7 years, and 6/7 times there was a short term correction in gold.
Re: three “surprises” to expect in 2010
Meanwhile the Pound rallies against all the major currencies, even the Aussie Dollar.
GBP - USD 1.6625 +0.0183 (1.11%)
GBP - Euro 1.1011 +0.0056 (0.51%)
GBP - JPY 144.0220 +2.0324 (1.43%)
GBP - HKD 12.8844 +0.1414 (1.11%)
GBP - CNY 11.3499 +0.1259 (1.12%)
GBP - AUD 1.7977 +0.0066 (0.37%)
Re: buying gold while it's going up hyperolic?
"I'm still uneasy about gold right now. Rydex PM holding is close to 0.3%, multi year high. We had it 7 times in 7 years, and 6/7 times there was a short term correction in gold." - Jack Black
Gold being purchased by central banks right now. Big reversal in sovereign gold reserves trend set by the boys with much much larger guns than the notorious Fed gang. But, yes, there should be a pull back in spot gold when the Comex buys its own junk paper receipts but how long can that last before the mother of all short squeezes ensues?
Re: Whitney's Loan Mod Theory
The theory sure sounded good to me.
If I recall correctly, loan mods (usually) didn't involve any loss to principal, the modded loans were then given to the usual government bad-loan aging facilities, the banks got $3000 for their trouble, and all was just peachy. No write-downs required. So it sure doesn't sound like there's a reason why a bank wouldn't want to give it a shot.
As to why the mods aren't working out - I haven't the foggiest. I didn't think the re-default rates were 95% - I thought they were more like 30% within 3 months. Do you have people you know who have had their loans modded under this program and are having an unpleasant experience? It sounds like you might. Care to tell us the story?
Re: Whitney's Loan Mod Theory
If I recall correctly the key element was once the loans were modified they were considered 'clean' and therefore repackaged in bundles to be sold to fannie and freddie. That's the way they offload the toxic stuff to the government (us tax payers).
Re: Quick setup example
Vad,
What first clues you in that it is in a JBE set up formation before. I assume you are entering before the large volumn spike? Is it just the fact that you see accumalation in the .40 - .50 range?Do you ever use buy limit orders above resistence to catch a break out or just happy to enter a trade with the 3:1 probability. I assume it is the latter to ensure a fill of your order.
Bob
Re: WATG
Sold a bunch (not all) at $13.33...probably too early but it was a nice gain.
Re: Physical Gold Delivery Window Closing
Well, sir, it's either that or letting this good forum devolve into an off-topic political discussion.
Ignoring you makes sense, too.
Re: Whitney's Loan Mod Theory
Hi loannetter. I'll refrain from calling you anyone's vassal today in the spirit of goodwill and understanding.
Foot dragging problem explained:
"Bank of America has 990,628 eligible loans except for a few details like 1/3 of the portfolios consists of vacant homes, the homeowner is unemployed, or the customer has a debt-to-income ratio below 31 percent. Anyone care to assign probabilities to each of those three categories?" - 'Mish' Shedlock
BofA is the largest in the program trial. Looks like the 'eligible' loans are being disqualified by runaway unemployment, migration, and devaluation from those rotten-to-the-core appraisers picking up $300 fees.
Re: Quick setup example
Bobbyo,
my clue is a chart formation. Scanner alerts me about stocks where such formation takes place. My entry signal is .50 breakout; method of order entering is a limit buy priced a few cents above the break point (in this case .55) which gives me fill anywhere between .50 and .55 depending on how quickly offers are being sweeped.
Also, it's not a 3:1 probability - it's a ratio of reward to risk where risk is the size of original stop (about 10-12 cents in this case), so every 10-12 cents on a profit side represent additional "unit of reward" so to speak.
2010 Warnings
Here's a few highlights from the International Forecaster Nov 28
2010
Fed to choose hyperinflation over withdrawing $1.5 Trillion in stimulus by Jun 2010 allowing deflationary forces to intensify and sink economy.
New instructions to banks regarding commercial loans.
Bad banks number 2,035 not 500
FDIC collapse by end of year NO MORE DEPOSIT INSURANCE
Domestic savers to be forced into buying low interest rate Treasury debt as their CD's will no longer
be protected. I had read a previous comment somewhere on the net which discussed who would continue to buy low interest rate US debt if foreign buyers disappear and that the FED would force purchase of US debt onto the domestic market and I wondered how? Ending deposit insurance would probably do it.
Further stress on remaining banks due to loss of FDIC
New USD currency coming with a 1:3 conversion rate
After a full and thorough looting, the Illumans intend to let the economy collapse allowing them to
implement their plan for world government.
However forces are forming to counter their actions.
Bennie Shalom will be on TV this week attempting to justify his tenure and the need to keep FED secrets.
Opposition to the FED is growing,as their actions come to light. But the FED is a powerful force
... if anyone comes too close and threatens...they usually end up dead.
Full article:
Bob Chapman's International Forecaster Nov 28
http://theinternationalforecaster.com/
Re: Physical Gold Delivery Window Closing
Please, please, number2son, don't devolve for my benefit.
Restaurants
I've noticed some heavier than usual volume in RUTH and MRT, which is one of the reasons I took a position after an approx. 50% fall in both over the past 10 weeks.
AAPL at the close
Something happened to AAPL at the close- off $4.50 in the last 30 minutes and $3.00 of it came in the last 10 minutes.
trades for today
I had internet connection problems all morning, and when it finally got resolved at about 12noon PST, I glanced at the market, saw that SRS was down again but SKF was almost flat, and decided to buy 300 more shares of SRS at $8.43 (since SRS cannot go down without SKF joining it, and if SKF is holding up well, then SRS will rebound strongly at some point, I believe). Placed a sell limit order on them at $8.93. Once again, the strategy of scaling into SRS *very* gradually saved my butt.
Also, a buy limit order for 100 shares of TWM was triggered today at $29 -- scaling into it gradually as well. Placed a sell limit order at $30 for these shares. I have another buy limit order at $28 for 100 more shares.
Finally, a buy limit order for 200 shares of HNU.TO was triggered today at $8.76. Placed a sell limit order at $9.76 for these shares. My next buy limit orders are at $8.50 and $8.
North Korea just confiscated its currency
Ouch.
Re: Quick setup example
Vad,
Two more questions.
First: I don't see why .50 is important on that chart. Was .50 the high for the day or high for the hour ect. .45ish is the resistence on that chart. What chart formation is the scanner discovering. Isn't JBE a break after consolidation near the high. Sure is clear after the fact, but in real time.....
Second: Entry timing. You enter the trade at the first tick past .50. In other words the first print at .51 you hit the buy button or do you wait for some volumn confirmation. I know you must be looking at order line up on level 2.
Bob
Re: Whitney's Loan Mod Theory
Delete duplicate
Re: Whitney's Loan Mod Theory
Davefairtex,
Correctly assessing the failure or success of loan modifications might be Elizabeth Warren's new turf as the Federal oversight panel chair....perhaps I'll put in a call :) Frankly I think congress is being conned into thinking they've done their jobs in handing over the money to HB&B. They are giving the banks $5,000 for each successful modification: success being defined as keeping them in good standing for 5 years. So the incentives are clearly there. In addition another $4B was earmarked from stimulus funds to 'insure a fair and smooth loan modification process'.
My assessment from Borrowers whose cases I've reviewed who do qualifiy for loan modification is that 1. Banks are pissed 2. Mitigators are not trained to be helpful or make sense 3. Terms offered by the bank are no better than existing terms 4. Borrowers are scared to get professional help and try to go it alone sometimes for a year or more as things get worse.
I work with a professional who gets results. We had to break down doors to legalize a modification process in WA state. Not many people have the guts and determination for this work which is why a borrower has little chance of sucess.They have no way of knowing what a bank's bottom line is and bank staff can't handle their emotional distress. Most who try diligently on their own
receive a barrage of inept letters and different negotiators saying different things and finally their offer arrives by courier two days after the required response date so they are denied. Too many stories to relate here but let's just say JPM, BAC and GMAC are not among the helpful few.
The bizarre part is that WHILE you are in review and up to the time your trial period is over you keep being harrassed by the collections staff. I wonder if notices if default and escalating threats could be the reason people are just giving up. I ask every
person having such experiences to complain to their state attorney general and their congressional representatives but few people want to admit they are in this position.
Stalling on HAMP and MHA Programs simply makes no sense unless they are using their TARP slush funds to pay investors rather than lowering the earnings boom.
Re: Physical Gold Delivery Window Closing
yes lets talk more about COMEX delivery issues,
its been what 4 years now that the COMEX is on the brink of a failure to deliver....
there is no solid evidence that the COMEX has been unable to deliver what its required to each month.
period.
everything else is just nonsense and speculation. GATA with all due respect, please explain to us how your "inside sources" tell you what is going on... we love to hear about all these alleged people who simply dont exist within the industry to give us secrets. there are no secrets, but there is corruption, are we to assume that inside tip givers are actually on our side now?
wake up gang. gold has been going up, because it is,
Re: Quick setup example
Bobbyo,
1. .50 is important because it's a resistance formed by a few moves within that consolidation range, Break of resistance launches the upward leg. High of the day was .52, made much earlier; this range touched on .50 a few times and retreated while holding above .40, thus range has presented itself. Scanner discovers JBE setup and B stage, so it's real time. When you say "Isn't JBE a break after consolidation near the high" you need to make a distinction between whole setup and its phases; it's E stage that comes after the break (if successful of course), but if scanner finds it at B stage - you are seeing the setup before the trigger is hit.
2. As soon as .50 disappears and .51 is being printed, resistance is broken and entry is valid. Sometimes you may want to try and grab last shares at .50.. depends on stock's liquidity and "personality".
Hope it helps!
Re: Whitney's Loan Mod Theory
loannetter - super interesting stuff there. Perhaps the old saw "you don't need to imagine a conspiracy when you can imagine incompetence instead."
Imagine trying to construct a brand new department inside a bank (i.e. a massively bureaucratic organization that defines the term slow-moving whose primary business units have been fixed in place for the past 60 years) in 3 months, and then imagine this beast actually functioning properly. Hiring, training, managing, and executing. The mind boggles. Now imagine these banks are - at least one of them - frankenstein monster like patchworks comprised of smaller banks acquired over the years and never properly integrated (i.e. Citibank).
Any ex bankers care to comment on my supposition?
Re: Whitney's Loan Mod Theory
Davefairtex, We'll call it our government sponsored enterprise, non profit, profit center of last resort!
Re: Physical Gold Delivery Window Closing
dr. cosa -
"there is no solid evidence that the COMEX has been unable to deliver what its required to each month."
Here's some evidence. Coincidence? I think not.
http://tinyurl.com/yzwssju
Re: Quick setup example
I see now. The cosolidation is the 9 bars before the break. The entire yellow box was throwing me off. Is the volumn surge pushing the range into .40-.50 important. Also You say the scanner alerts you at the B phase. At what point on the chat is that? The beginning of the yellow box.
Bob
Re: Quick setup example
Yes, yellow box shows whole move in discussion. I used arrows to show the elements. Discussion of this setup in our chat starts at 12:41, and aggressive entry at .45 was mentioned even earlier, at 12:12-12:13, but that was different setup.
As far as volume goes, as usual: we want to see volume increase in upward move for confirmation of uptrend continuing.
One more important element that I couldn't show on the chart, need to make a screenshot of Level 2 for that - there was a huge offer at .50 which makes breakout especially tempting. Meaning, if such big offer is taken, it indicates a lot of buying pressure and traps bears. Next time it happens I'll see if I can grab a screen shot of Level 2 also.
worth his or her gold
"That’s not right, and any regulator worth his or her salt knows it."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salary#History
By the time of the Hebrew Book of Ezra (550 BC to 450 BC), accepting salt from a person was synonymous with drawing sustenance, taking pay, or being in that person's service. At that time salt production was strictly controlled by the monarchy or ruling elite. Depending on the translation of Ezra 4:14, the servants of King Artaxerxes I of Persia explain their loyalty variously as "because we are salted with the salt of the palace" or "because we have maintenance from the king" or "because we are responsible to the king."
Similarly, the Roman word salarium linked employment, salt and soldiers, but the exact link is unclear. The least common theory is that the word soldier itself comes from the Latin sal dare (to give salt). Alternatively, the Roman historian Pliny the Elder stated as an aside in his Natural History's discussion of sea water, that "[I]n Rome. . .the soldier's pay was originally salt and the word salary derives from it. . ." Plinius Naturalis Historia XXXI. Others note that soldier more likely derives from the gold solidus, with which soldiers were known to have been paid, and maintain instead that the salarium was either an allowance for the purchase of salt or the price of having soldiers conquer salt supplies and guard the Salt Roads (Via Salarium) that led to Rome.
Regardless of the exact connection, the salarium paid to Roman soldiers has defined a form of work-for-hire ever since in the Western world, and gave rise to such expressions as "being worth one's salt."
---
SALT is (also) money
DEBT UP
ALOHA !!
Well, this could not be good for the USD ...
On Friday, Nov 27th and Monday, Nov 30th the US TREASURY posted, on the US Treasury Daily Statement, a TOTAL debt issuance of $605.5BIL USD. Out of that $218.3BIL was marketable Treasury Bills and Notes, but due to a redemption shortfall that totaled $105.2BIL USD the "gross" US PUBLIC DEBT is now over the "debt ceiling" of 12.104TRIL USD and as of Monday, 11/30 sits at $12.113TRIL USD, substantially over the limit. The "net" debt(with limit exemptions) sits at $12.057TRIL USD. If it were not for the "unamortized discount" we would have to shut down the US government on Monday and issue IOU paychecks for federal union workers and military personnel serving in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In all the many months I have been watching the US TREASURY debt issuances, from the Bush FY 2009 to the Obama FY 2010, I have never seen a one day increase of $104.4BIL USD, but it happened on Monday, Nov 30th.
We are at the boiling point on the US PUBLIC DEBT and when our creditors see the US CONGRESS nonchalantly raise the debt ceiling another $2 or $3TRIL USD after some 70 years of debt ceiling games they will be none to pleased. None of the US PUBLIC DEBT bodes well for anything remotely close to a STRONG DOLLAR POLICY. So as US DEBT goes parabolic isn't it fortunate interest rates are so low right now. It certainly favors global governments that struggle most with unending debt liabilities both "internal" and "external"! Problem is ... how long will creditors allow it? PLANNED CHAOS!
Re: worth his or her gold
ALOHA !!
In California "IOUs are money" and it looks like the US TREASURY is next in line with the IOUs.
Re: 2010 Warnings
Mokat,
Sadly, I find nothing in this list too surprising.
"I had read a previous comment somewhere on the net which discussed who would continue to buy low interest rate US debt if foreign buyers disappear and that the FED would force purchase of US debt onto the domestic market and I wondered how? Ending deposit insurance would probably do it."
If this comes to pass why not just buy gold?
I suppose they could do an FDR and make holding gold illegal.
How long before we see actual rioting in the streets?
Edit: I believe it may have been at Peter Schiff's website that I read a while back the government may issue any welfare payments and possibly Soc. Sec. as debit cards with an expiration date to "stimulate" the economy.
Well, Bernanke promised to use unconventional measures.
Audit the Fed Petition
The Progressive Change Campaign Committee has a petition asking the senate to not re-appoint Big Ben unless he commits to transparency and full accountability. If you believe in this, please sign the petition here:
http://tinyurl.com/yjxldjj
Please forward to your friends and peers.
If we don't act, there will never be change.
Re: Quick setup example/big offers as entry indication
I just realized that I do have a way to show this concept in video format. Exactly the same setup (JBE), narrated as play develops, with all three - chart, Level 2 and T&S; there is a big offer that helps find the right entry. Please go to http://www.realitytrader.com/video/ and click on the video titled "Fine Tuning Entries with Level II". Video is just over 14 minutes.
There are 4 more on the same page, enjoy.
Re: Quick setup example/big offers as entry indication
Now THAT'S entertainment! Thanks, Vad.
U.S $
There has been a prevalent opinion espoused here and elsewhere in the alternative media, that there are malevolent forces at work destroying the value of the U.S. dollar. It's been said that their goal is to delude the domestic population with a sense of false prosperity as their market rises to maintain the relative global value of some of the assets. It's also been said that it's motivated by the authorities desire to cheat their debt-holders out of their due return (inflating away the debt). Maybe it's so; I certainly am not a fly on the wall to know. But I wonder?
Isn't it just possible that U.S.$, held, long-standing, as a secure and reliable haven by peoples worldwide, has become a bit overvalued? Essentially in a bubble? Bubbles are destructive - starving the real global economy of the necessary capital it needs to flourish to potential. Might it not be that, in this age of broad and instant communication, that we are witnessing a volatile rebalancing of the excesses of the 20th century? A price-discovery search for U.S.$'s appropriate competitive level? Murmurs are beginning, these days, about a $ rebound. What would drive it? You could attribute it to evil force's whims, or, it might just be that, when it happens, a price has been reached, at which PG, BA, IBM, JNJ, JPM, WMT, F, MSFT, CSCO, AAPL, XOM, COKE, and a few other enterprises become attractive. That is, at a level at which U.S. industry, technology, and ingenuity reaches compelling value.
These are the things I’ve been thinking about, for the last several months, as just one of a vast multitude of non-U.S. investors struggling to understand what (and who) buffets our markets.
Re: U.S $
Mac -
You MUST consider Debt Monetization to grasp the $USD decline. Mr. Cara and Kaimu discuss the creation of dollars out of thin air often and should be reviewed.
Here's a succinct essay on the subject:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/greene0321...
Cheers.
Re: U.S $
Mackinaw,
If you want more on those evil forces check out: THE ASCENT OF MONEY A Financial History of the World, By Niall Ferguson, a NY Times Best Seller.
Change
A follow up to my earlier comment. Consider that an estimated 58% of US citizens receive their income from the government. That number is increasing.
This is why the probability of constructive change is very low. Nobody wants to lose their gravy train.
I can't help but wonder, though . . . At what point does the percentage of government benefited citizens become unsustainable? Then what?
Reference link:
http://www.usnews.com/money/blogs/flowchart/2009/1...
ASX UP
ALOHA!!
The ASX is up modestly compared to the prior day, now in the 4780 range. POG/AUD back above $1300AUD per ounce. While the POG/USD is up big into $1210USD per ounce and a majority of other currencies are confirming the move at higher percent gains.
MOVERS
SLR up some 7% on volume of 1.4mil+. New drill results that confirm the Daisy East expansion with some small intervals in excess of 500 g/t AU, averaging around 10 g/t AU over 140meters at Level 8 in a new 200 meter mineralized structure open along strike up and down dip. A portfolio gain over 750% with the latest share price move to $1.28AUD.
LINK: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091202/pdf/31mhgfz2...
PEM up some 17% with strong volume of 4.5mil+. No news but I suspect with the base metals and silver prices exploding with the PEM unhedged silver position as well as a very robust subscription to the latest Rights issue($0.42AUD a near 40% discount) to replace the $55mil it seems the share price is moving full steam ahead. Plenty to be upbeat about, especially when you have the financial backing of the 3rd largest zinc producer in the World.
SAU up some 7% on light volume of 370k. Just Cambodia drilling news with JOGMEC their Japanese industrialist JV partner. Interesting the main banks in Cambodia are ANZ(Aus/NZ) and Canadia, which was named Canadia Gold & Trust Corp when it opened in 1991. It seems there is some headway into Cambodia in terms of returning foreign investment, which SAU and JOGMEC are participating in. If any two countries in the World know the value of "real money" it is Cambodia and Vietnam. Cambodia has had a real struggle since it was bombed back to the stone age during the Vietnam War and then the Khmer Rouge in 1975.
another day, gold +15
In asia this afternoon, gold is +15 (again) to 1215. As Bill says, is it really this easy, day after day? Now the buck is flat, and gold is still going up.
Re: U.S $
Dollar depreciation favors exporters. It kills U.S. consumers. Consider that Cat Trac might have an export advantage in dollar terms from Peoria but the Wall Mart shopper pays more for household goods imported from China.
Dollar depreciation is the only way out of our current debt problem short of repudiation. We have been doing this since the Marshall plan and our WWII debts. Aside from 'intellectual' property, we don't export much except foodstuffs.
Cat et al have joint ventures in Asia. They can source castings and forgings there. They hire cheaper labour, there. Tires can be had from Malasia. If I lived in Peoria, I'd have a for sale sign in my yard!
We live in a post industrial society which isn't necessarily a bad thing. GDP after all is a measure of activity, good or bad. Disasters actually add to GDP. Perverse but that's the way it is accounted. Time will tell weather we will have patent and intellectual property wars.
Re: DEBT UP
Kaimu,when Obama started talking about more troops tonight gold was up 4.00 when he finished up 10.40 and the night is still young.
Old Small Business Trick: Your customer is going under, writes you a check for 8K you take it to the bank, it bounces, NSF, you ask the teller how much is the check under drawn, she says I cant tell you, you call the manger,he tells you so you deposit 1500.00 so you can cash out at 6500.OO so you loose 1500.00 relative to your own currency, but better than loosing 8K, me thinks Asian people know the drill.
GAME ON with the creditors
Re: U.S $
ALOHA !!
Ross posted - "Disasters actually add to GDP. Perverse but that's the way it is accounted."
I saw this rationale for new jobs after Katrina hit New Orleans and the WTC bombing. If this is the only way America can create jobs then lets just have our own Air Force bomb NYC and there would be plenty of jobs rebuilding all TRUMPS properties! Then after those jobs subside lets bomb Miami and rebuild more TRUMP properties. Then bomb Los Angeles. Of course we would give the residents of those cities plenty of time to evacuate for the "new jobs" program!
Re: DEBT UP
ALOHA !!
The US Treasury Daily Statement said MORE WAR when I noted the 50% average rise in the Defense Vendor line item and Military Active Duty line item. I like to see "confirmations" like that as it tells me I can rely on the US Treasury Daily Statement more as I believe the powers that be perceive it to be "under the radar" by most media sources and indeed it is except for readers at Bill Cara and GATA.
Contrary to what Dr. Cosa says about GATA it is not all "tin hat" invisible floor traders. Besides nobody has been more "right" about monetary issues and GOLD than GATA and Bill Murphy, when they started in 1998(11 years ago). If you had read and listened back then you would be multi-millionaires now and have no real need to be trading anything right now except kisses with your wife! Instead now most Americans can take their 401ks and buy a real nice top of the line GM car to drive to their WalMart greeter jobs! The profits off gold and silver have dwarfed any thing being sold by your local HB&B broker. My ex-brokers at Morgan Stanley and Merrill heard about it many years ago as I announced ADIOS and pulled all my funds out. I even told my Merril broker back in 2006 that his company would be broke as one of my reasons for yanking my funds. His reply ... "Well, Merrill would be broke but you would still have your funds its all FDIC and SIPC!" YES SUZE! These guys were a dime a dozen then and still are! The fraud against Americans has been staggering and it is still going stronger than ever. I can only attribute why Americans have yet to revolt en masse to STOCKHOLM SYNDROME! Hostages we are ...
Re: DEBT UP
I have to say I am appreciative of your mind and willingness to go were no other wants to go and I don't think you do it for yourself. If you did this for yourself how could your mind even work? What force would be required to bring about your obvious hearts desire? Apparently, you want this government to change...sooner the better. Words cannot express this eternal desire to prove that once and for all goodness does and will exist forever and forever...would not it be nice to have such a dream as this to bear fruit.
I did not know when, if or how I would time the release of a new melody freely given and without expectations:
Love
when I was a younger man
I had no need of your dreams
I could not stand to hold your hand
my foolishness did precede me
and now that time has taken her toll
your hand still today does seek me
I have no excuse there is no use
your truth and law have beat me
it is my wish to know one thing
please make you mind known to me
i ask this day in every way
to know the works that flow through me
Re: another day, gold +15
It gets curiouser and curiouser, no?
I wonder if GS has anything to say about this show-tune? If I was a betting man, and I am, Bill would be right there with me perhaps (I can't say though at present).
Re: 2010 Warnings
Be careful with S. I invested there a little while back and while I did not loose money, Ha, I didn't gain either...of course they honored their time and warranty too and gave back the subscription price...I still felt manipulated and unclean however.
Re: DEBT UP
dynamite!
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
AMZN - Price Target Raised from $130 to $160 @ FBR Capital. Outperform.
Re: U.S $
Mackinaw,
Bernanke laid out his strategy in one, two, three fashion prior to becoming Fed Chairman. Here's a link to his plan. Even if he is unable to make it "work" (I have serious doubts that he can.) his Grand Experiment using our money will be a disaster to the country and beyond.
The long term influence of Goldman Sachs is, I believe, quite apparent. It is an exclusive club with keys to powerful forces. You don't need to be right — just be in the right place at the right time.
Example: Larry Summers lost $1.8 Billion of Harvard's money and was then appointed to lead Obama's Council of Economic Advisors. DUH!
----------
In 2002, then-Fed Governor Benjamin Bernanke burst into our monetary consciousness with his printing press speech. His fine work earned him the honorary title "helicopter commander." While largely a background figure since then, his recent appointment to succeed Alan Greenspan as Fed chair makes this an ideal time to review Dr. Bernanke’s views on monetary policy, and to speculate about what his chairmanship will bring.
http://tiny.cc/GhPfy
Re: DEBT UP
Kaimu said:
"Contrary to what Dr. Cosa says about GATA it is not all "tin hat" invisible floor traders. Besides nobody has been more "right" about monetary issues and GOLD than GATA and Bill Murphy"
------
Kaimu, you are a much better trader than i, and clearly have enjoyed considerable success with your jr. portfolio.
i can only speak from my own understanding of the situation and from a position of deep respect for your point of view i must reiterate my feeling on GATA, they have in fact not been any more right than any other gold bug. all they have gotten right is that the POG would rise.
what i take issue with GATA is their claim to posses "inside" information from shadowy figures so high up in the annals of gold investment who divulge information about scheming and collusion that only GATA seems to know about or at best a very few other "sources" to further build a circle of back slapping gold-bugs drinking their own bathwater as they cite eachother's reports as supportive of their claims that to date have yet to materialize.
this is key: GATA's claims have not materialized, gold has only risen in price, the future is still uncertain, and if it emerges that gold was "suppressed" and being leased out under ghosting programs to hide a lack of gold in the vaults as they alledge then perhaps they will deserve the distinction you laud on them.
until then GATA has not been more right than anyone who believed gold would go up over the past few years. this is the only fact we know of to date, you know by know i dont just dump on shot callers in gold without a firm grounding in facts, im not here to smear folks, only keep the game honest.
all the best,
Re: U.S $
Ross,
"We live in a post industrial society which isn't necessarily a bad thing. GDP after all is a measure of activity, good or bad. Disasters actually add to GDP. Perverse but that's the way it is accounted. Time will tell weather we will have patent and intellectual property wars."
It looks like a "bad thing" from here. My city was a major machine tool manufacturing center. We also made aero/space parts and controls, fasteners, furniture, auto parts and countless other "things" which we and other countries needed.
The factories made it possible for thousands of less educated people to become part of the middle class (our biggest national asset).
Back in the naval gazing 1970s I remember ethical discussions centered around the Lifeboat Situation. A group of people with a small amount of food and water must decide who gets dumped over the side so the rest can survive.
Today the world is that lifeboat.
For decades technology has made it possible to save babies who wold have died a few generations ago. It has also increased productivity in the home, workplace and nearly every aspect of life.
We are all living longer, in general having fewer children in the most developed countries, but doing all we can to save people in the poorest areas.
Since 1938 (my lifetime) U.S. population is up 2.5 times. We went from a couple billion to over six billion worldwide.
We have far too many people, too few things to sell, and an increasing number of non-productive individuals. Today we are scrambling for the lower number of jobs and soon will need to make disturbing choices of who gets the food and water.
I think some people have already begun that decision process.
Re: U.S $
Interesting these are the cash-flows of our mind. I say that in jest, but really when we capture the very nature of the conundritic-integrally apposed and fractured moving containers involved here, I am supposing that we can do better. If we just take the square root and let it evolve, why that is bull as perhaps Einstein would say or not! Why do we not start from scratch, as some are already eugenically capturing the essence of exchange...yes, there is a better way, we can rebuild this ravishing monster; warts and all-not that there is anything at all wrong with a few naturally occurring compromises.
Kaimu s "bombing cambodia back to stone age remark"
very rarely do I catch Kaimu in overblown rhetoric but having both flown combat in all four SEA countries, then served at 7AFHQ/saigon as the "rules of engagement expert" on air ops as a captain, then deployed back over on a few hours notice in F105s as the NVN came over the DMZ I can attest that the bombing in cambodia was rather select and almost exclusively limited to motorized vehicles, sampans and troop concentrations in the region east of the loop the mekong made from exiting laos and kicking into vietnam west of saigon. We also supported the FANKs as they tried to save the provincial capitals in that area and I was apalled by the insanity of the massacres of the civilians in those towns if they fell. The kymerR would actually set up machine guns along the river and kill anything, women, children, etc that attempted to escape by floating down the river. As an aside I understand the ROE is very strict in Afganistan and probably leads to hesitancy in responding to enemy fire. As an example it was difficult to get permission to strike religious sites in SEA and one of the arms depots in Cambodia was at Angor-What which was a true international treasure.
Re: Kaimu s "bombing cambodia back to stone age remark"
Tobyt,
I have a number of friends who also served in Viet Nam and leaving aside whether we should have been involved, (several think not) all have indicated that there was a lot of added danger to our troops due to the attempts to fight a war with a rule book that put us at a great disadvantage.
I am hearing the same now with regard to Iraq and Afghanistan.
IMO, we should only fight with massive and overwhelming forces like the First Gulf War and only when a nation threatens the US directly.
Better still we should enlist all countries which have been put at risk by the Muslim radical terrorists and stop treating this as a nation against nation conflict or become involved in these civil wars.
Thank you for your service.
Re: Kaimu s "bombing cambodia back to stone age remark"
My heart weeps for all the scandalous-umbridgic moments you describe. I wonder if "Helicopter Ben's" conscientiousness would have fared as well as yours, seeing as it is quite possible he is blind. I wonder if he were to travel through such an experience as this one or have someone relay the message he needs to hear...the detailed description would tug at his heart strings and other fibers.
Sela, I knew that would come into play sometime. What is that? Good question to ask and this seems to be the day and time to ask it. Logically, how can we reasonably expect the box to be turned inside out if our picture of the box is already flattened? We can appeal to our ego, as is common misconception, sometimes it is for me, or-we we can ride the wave of energy as it resonates with the love in us connecting heart to heart, mind to mind, circuit to circuit in others. True and well regarded-better yet even, blessed-is he who knows no enemy and also protects what is given him.
EDIT: often times I need to rest...so I will rest...tomorrow is another day. Peace
Re: Kaimu s "bombing cambodia back to stone age remark"
ALOHA!!
First off, I appreciate your GROUND REPORT and your perspective.
The source of my comments was from my REVENUE BREAKDOWN article published on October 3rd, the Owen Kiernan Report.
I am only quoting this source published at YALE UNIVERSITY by a professor of history from Yale and another from Oxford. This information was provided in 2000 by Bill Clinton on his visit to Vietnam, whereby these documents were provided by the US Air Force in order to aid the rapid removal of unexploded ordinance as part of the MIA-POW deal, in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. In the report at the link below is a map of Cambodia which shows the extent of bombing in Cambodia in terms of bomb sites and tonnage dropped.
Yet whatever this report says it does not detract from your own experience, however you know and I know one soldier or one civilian rarely gets the birds eye view that the US President and the military Generals do.
LINK: http://zfacts.com/metaPage/lib/Owen-Kiernan_200-10...
Further ... in my REVENUE BREAKDOWN article, dated November 9th, I published a portion of the LBJ tapes. While Nixon was widely reported to have started the bombing of Cambodia it turned out that it was actually started under LBJ's watch.
How many American kids died in Vietnam so LBJ and McNamara could look good? What sort of Foreign Policy is "Carl Rowan and his propaganda people"? Sounds more like the USSR ...
Here are the LBJ TAPES ...
LBJ: Uh, tell me, I, I saw a little glimmer of hope on Vietnam in some, uh, paper today, uh, where we'd routed some and killed a few and run 'em out or somethin'. Do you have any--are you getting good cables on them at all?
RM: Well, I read that article, Mr. President, the, the uh-
LBJ: Give me another one of those.
RM: The official battle report wasn't as good as the newspaper report, for once. We got a little; we got a break in the press.
LBJ: Has Carl Rowan gettin' any of his propaganda people out there now?
RM: Yes, I think so and I'm going to check again before I go the end of the week and uh, tell him that I want to talk to Lodge about that while I am there. I'm just sitting here, as a matter of fact now, writing a cable to Lodge that I'll send Monday, telling him if he agrees, I'd like to stop by on my way home and I will cover that subject with him and be sure before I leave that Ralph's people are actually are on the way.
LBJ: Have we got anybody that's got a military mind that can give us some military plans for winning that war?
RM: Well, Buzz Wheeler is going out with me.
LBJ: I know but he went out last time and he just came back with, with planes, that are all he had in mind, wasn't it?
RM: Well we, uh, yes, well he had more than that but he emphasized the planes. And the planes, Max Taylor agrees, are not the answer to the problem. Whether we should have more planes or not is another question, but it's not going to make any difference in the short run, that's certain.
LBJ: Let's get some more of something, my friend; because I'm gonna have a heart attack if you don't get me something. I'm just sitting here every day and uh, this war that I'm winning and I'm not doing much about fightin' it, and uh I'm not doing much about winnin' it, and I just read about it and uh. Let's get somebody that wants to do something besides drop a bomb, but uh, that can go in and take in after these damn fellas and run them back where they belong. It looks like-
RM: Looks like we want to tell Kahn-
[recording interrupted- tone indicates that material was removed by National Archives for national security reasons]
LBJ: Well, we need to shoot that guy. We need somebody over there that can give us better plans than we've got, because what we've got is what we've had since '54. We're not getting it done, we're, we're losing so we need something new. It's uh, if you pitch this ol' southpaw every day and you wind up as the Washington Senators and you lose, well uh we'd better go us get us a new pitcher.
RM: I know it-
LBJ: Let's find one. And tell those damn old generals over there to find one for ya, or you gonna go out there yourself…END
LINK: http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features...
I do this to point out how our government has lied and manipulated us for many decades now and continues to do so. How many of your buddies and my buddies who died in Vietnam would have been happy to see George Bush 2(who evaded serving in Vietnam) shake hands with the Communists in Hanoi and Ho Chi Min City(Saigon)! Now we can be proud our largest creditor is also another Communist country, CHINA. How much aid did China give to North Vietnam during the Vietnam War? I would say quite a bit, as well as the Russians. I chose to disavow my former STOCKHOLM SYNDROME and instead QUESTION AUTHORITY, right to the top, as I am instructed to do so in the Declaration Of Independence.
After the Vietnam War I had to re-examine what America was and where it was going. I could no longer hold to my Father's ideas of a lifetime of just one political party affiliation. In his case it was REPUBLICAN. This POLITICAL MONOPOLY has not served my generation well and it will not serve future generations well. A Monopoly only serves a monopoly. I owe it to not only my Father's generation(WW2) but to the Vietnam War generation and I especially owe it to the Founding Fathers who risked life and property to rebel against the largest military superpower of their day, Britain. I owe it to the US CONSTITUTION, the BILL OF RIGHTS and to the DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE to take action to preserve the Republic and not the MONOPOLY.