Morning Call [8:05am ET] Today is expected to be the most revealing of the year to date in terms of possible actions and reactions from Washington and Wall Street. Traders ought to be focused. Stay tuned.
Yesterday, we provided this framework, which several people commented positively on, so we may continue it periodically.
US: Dow Jones Industrials $INDU 10,194.29 -2.57 -0.03%
Recommendation: Lighten into rallies
Support: 10,160 – 9,913
Resistance: 10,500 ‐ 10,729
US: SP500 $SPX 1,092.17 -4.61 -0.42%
Recommendation: Lighten into rallies
Support: 1,083 – 1,064
Resistance: 1,150 – 1,165
US: NASDAQ $COMPQ 2,203.73 -7.07 -0.32%
Recommendation: Range trade (profit take or lighten)
Support: 2,199 – 2,150
Resistance: 2,325 – 2,420
US: 30‐Yr Long Bonds $USB 118.28 -0.03 -0.03%
Recommendation: Range trade
Support: 115.00 – 112.50
Resistance: 119.14 – 121.00
Currency: US Dollar $USD 78.48 +0.30 +0.38%
Recommendation: Hold
Support: 77.34 – 76.60
Resistance: 78.45 – 80.58
Gold (Continuous Contract) $GOLD 1,097.60 -0.60 -0.05%
Recommendation: Range trade
Support: 1,075 – 1,051
Resistance: 1,118 – 1,150
Crude Oil (Continuous Contract) $WTIC 74.71 -0.55 -0.73%
Recommendation: Range trade weekly channel
Support: 74.00– 72.00
Resistance: 78.50 – 84.00
Japan: Nikkei $NIKK 10,252.08 -73.20 -0.71%
Recommendation: Profit take or lighten down
Support: 10,653 – 10,282
Resistance: 11,500 – 11,700
Hong Kong: Hang Seng $HSI 20,033.07 -76.26 -0.38%
Recommendation: Lighten into rally from over-sold level
Support: 20,300 – 19,425
Resistance: 21,351 – 21,939
China: Shanghai Composite $SSEC 2,986.607 -32.787 -1.09%
Recommendation: Profit take as technical support broken
Support: 3,119 – 3,015
Resistance: 3,306 – 3,361
UK: FTSE $FTSE 5,248.24 7:25AM ET -28.61 -0.54%
Recommendation: Range trade (lighten into rallies)
Support: 5,250 – 5,200
Resistance: 5,645 – 5,770
Note how many of the key markets have fallen down to important technical support levels. China (Shanghai Composite) has broken to the downside. Central bank tightening is causing issues there as speculative interest is being diminished. Other equity markets in the region followed suit overnight, and Europe opened on a down note as well, particularly as an important Spanish mortgage finance company reported losses.
Today, however, America is back on the world stage. Have we ever seen such a convergence of important matters popping up in a single day: (i) New Home Sales data (market expects 370,000), (ii) FOMC monetary policy announcement (market expects no change, but some language about the need to stave any possibility of inflation), (iii) Treasury Secretary Geithner being (supposedly) grilled over his AIG testimony in Congress, (iv) political movers-and-shakers trying to maneuver Fed chairman Bernanke back into a confirmed second term (for whatever reason beyond keeping the gang in control is beyond me), and (v) the State of the Union address to Congress and the world by President Obama (which could be his finest hour, but probably will be more talk leading to more status quo because that’s what his backers want).
I think the best clues today will come from the Geithner testimony – hardball or puffball questions? – and the appearance (or not) of Paul Volker. Regrettably, I am a cynic at this point. I think it will be the same old same old Fed pumping money into the system to drop the Dollar, and rally oil, precious metals and equities today, leaving the world to believe that the State of the Union is just not as bad as it seems to most of us.
This, should it happen, will be so disappointing. The public should be outraged.
A pop in market prices for a day or a week or so will not likely reverse course of equity and commodity market prices, however. The intermediate-term trend is down, and smart money will likely be hitting the bids, selling into strength when and where they can.
Have a good day. Mine will come if, when and as Geithner explodes at his Congressional panel. Note I said “if”. I’m sure he spent the past week enrolled in an anger management course. Now we get to see the same old Teflon Tim, I’m afraid.
CTA Trading Desk Report
For the past several days we have identified S&P 1085'ish as a potential short-term bottoming area; it is near the Sept high, the Dec low, and also on the 89-day Moving Average. Early this morning and again right after the FOMC announcement at 2:15pm this level was tested, subsequently held, setting up the equity markets for an oversold bounce higher.
The rally today (S&P +0.49%) was led by the Financial (XLF +2.57%) and Technology sectors (SMH +0.97%), historically a very good sign of further strength. It is still too soon to make any definitive statements about the future direction of stock prices. We do know that the S&P topped at 1150 and had fallen 67 points down to the 1083 area. Traders should anticipate a bounce up somewhere between 1115 and 1130 on the S&P, a band of resistance formed by the .50 and .618 retracement of the recent sell-off, which is also the bottom of a previous support (now resistance) zone.
Penetration of this upper boundary would show the bearish scenario is in jeopardy, so anyone leaning short would use a move above 1130 as a warning sign. If the market rallies up into the aforementioned area and proceeds to meaningfully violate today’s low, then a rather nasty downdraft will most likely follow.
Avoid the temptation to chase prices if limit prices used to establish positions are unfilled; there is always another opportunity tomorrow. Successful traders let prices come to them.
Have a great evening.
Comments
the "doom loop"?
If, as Bill suspects, there is no substantial change in US policy we may be in for what is described in this Reuers article.
-------------------
From Davos today,
"...many of the factors that helped cause the previous crisis -- a sustained period of low interest rates, high levels of consumer debt in the West and excessive risk-taking by financial institutions -- remain in place.
At the same time, supersized government bailouts could have created the conditions for future financial crises that will be larger and even more expensive than the one the world has just suffered."
http://tiny.cc/M9Mxi
-------------------
EDIT: Many have spoken of this as a possibility. I suspect a lot of internet and phone traffic between central banks around the world is responsible for the alternating currency-of-the-day effect we see.
Q: Is SKF still a viable way to participate here? Are the ETFs (inverse) a good way to go when major national economies begin to crumble again?
IMO, gold still looks like the best protection long term — unless there is a move to confiscate.
Anyone have some ideas when/if this comes about?
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning. Two Upgrades to report:
AMZN - Upgraded to Buy @ Kaufman Bros. PT =$155
BBY - Upgraded to Buy @ Rochdale Securities.
Geithner and supposedly Hank Paulson being grilled about AIG
New York Times......gives a sliver of insight into the inner workings of Paulson and company.
I still say those to diverse-to-fail banksters should have been pushed over a cliff and filmed in Technicolor for future reference......
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/27/business/27aig.h...
Black swans in flight...
Meddlesome Obama hitting too many nerves; handlers trying to pull the plug?
http://tinyurl.com/yenc7cs
I'm making popcorn.
ETF's and Grym's comment
Recently several people commented on the volatility of ETF's as a long term investment.
Note, at the same time more financial organisations are heading in that direction. BMO or Bank of Montreal in Toronto comes to mind (refuses to Tiny)
http://www.bmoetfs.com/ETFConsumer/controller/fund...
Why should they not be a good investment ? Or, are we really addressing a long term problem with all of the exchanges and those that participate.
In other words, is the market only for short term speculation ?
Has it lost it's purpose?
AllenGG in Mazatlan
What it would be like to be a professional trader on Wall street
Bill,
Your last post from the previous day got my imagination flowing. What would it be like to be a professional trader on Wallstreet? Here is what I come up with.
9:30 Turn on the black box. Set it to "gun the stops,then rally mode" for kicks and giggles.
9:45 Eggs Benedict and Mimosa's.
10:00 to 11:00: Tell Mindy to do stuff on the web cam.
11:00 Mail your "bustarella" to the exchanges, so you can have that priority feed and access to dark pools.
12:00 to 1:30 Take your SEC oversight represenative to a "gentelmans club" for lunch to discuss compliance. Buy your treasury pals a drink at the next table.
1:30: Sell some CDO's to the FED at par.
2:00 to 3:30 Nap
4:00 Turn off black box. Another tough day on Wall street.
Bob
Extreme ADRs
For anyone interested in diversifying from USD or foreign companies that trade in the NYSE though ADRs, conditions of many of them are extreme.
http://nexalogic.com/adrs.html tracks all ADRs, by country, that trade on the NYSE (260+ of them).
Many of these ADRs are extremely oversold and overbought: http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/01/top-ad... RSIs updated today: http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/01/adrs-t...
Conditions are extreme in many of them. For example, BTM, Brasil Telecom has a daily RSI of 6.84, while Hutchison Telecom's is at 81.
EBR, the Brazilian nuclear and electric operator's long term RSI is 92.9...
Re: Black swans in flight...
Why ruin a good discussion by introducing that nonsense? Good grief.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
AAPL - Downgraded to Sell @ Technology Research Group
AMZN - PT Raised from $135 to $160 @ Janney Montgomery Scott. Buy
GILD - estimates, target upped at Government Sachs. GILD estimates were raised through 2011. Company is seeing strong HIV sales and a lower tax rate. Neutral rating and new $51 price target.
JNJ - Upgraded to Outperform @ Leerink Swann
NUE - estimates, target reduced at Government Sachs. Shares of NUE now seen reaching $53. Estimates also reduced, to reflect higher expected scrap costs. Buy rating.
POT - reinstated at BofA/Merrill with a Buy rating and $140 price target. Favorable multi-year outlook is based on above-average crop prices.
SNDK - estimates, target increased at UBS. Shares of SNDK now seen reaching $26. Estimates also boosted, as the company is seeing a better pricing environment. Sell rating.
Re: What it would be like to be a professional trader on ...
bobbyo- Too funny. Realistically, I think it goes like this-
(a) Up at 5 am after tossing and turning all night.
(b) Coffee.
(c) Keys, subway pass.
(d) Squeeze an inch of Colgate into your mouth on your way out.
(e) Arrive at work.
(f) Boot up the PC and watch your positions like a hawk.
(g) Sweat.
(h) Bathroom break. Splash a little water on your face.
(i) Watch your positions like a hawk.
(j) Skip lunch.
(k) Sweat. Toss back a few mini-Maalox bottles.
(l) Watch your positions like a hawk.
The need to relieve the tension after-hours then gives rise to the great stories we all enjoy reading.
Thanks
Framework very helpful. And thank you for ethics.
Zacks On Newmont Mining (NEM)
Value
Newmont Mining Corporation
By: Tracey Ryniec
January 27, 2010
NEM
Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM - Analyst Report) is riding the gold rush as the company has surprised on estimates 3 out of the last 4 quarters by an average of 11.02%. NEM is trading with a PEG ratio of just 0.86.
Company Description
Newmont Mining is one of the largest gold producers in the world. It has operations around the world, including in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico.
Zacks Consensus Estimates Rising
On Feb 25, Newmont is scheduled to report its fourth quarter and full year results. Analysts have been raising estimates on both over the last month.
Fourth quarter Zacks Consensus Estimates have risen by 5 cents to 72 cents per share. The 2009 Zacks Consensus has jumped 6 cents to $2.42 per share in the last month.
Analysts are even more bullish about 2010. Earnings are expected to grow by 24.32%. The Zacks Consensus has climbed by 4.5% to $3.01 from $2.88 per share in the last month.
Newmont Surprised by 38.6% in the Third Quarter
On Oct 29, Newmont reported its third quarter results and surprised on estimates by 22 cents. Earnings per share were 79 cents compared to the Zacks Consensus of 57 cents.
Equity gold sales jumped by 4% compared to the year ago quarter. Costs applicable to sale for gold fell 13% to $404 per ounce from $467 per ounce last year. Meanwhile gold operating margin climbed by 41% to $560 per ounce.
Outlook for 2009 and 2010
Newmont was cautious in its 2009 outlook, lowering its equity gold sales forecast to 5.2 million ounces which is at the lower end of the previous range.
For 2010, the company expects equity gold production to rise between 5% and 10%, primarily because of better production from Boddington in Australia and Batu Hijau in Indonesia. Newmont also expects costs to be marginally higher by about 5% due to higher energy costs and negative impacts in exchange rates.
Value Fundamentals
Newmont Mining is a Zacks #1 Rank (strong buy) stock. It is trading with a forward P/E of 14.66 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.81. The company also rewards shareholders with a dividend paying a yield of 0.90%.
Conflict of interest....or pump and dumps via. Reuters
TheMarkets.com Signs Real-Time Research Distribution Agreements with Over 700 Brokers and Independent Research Firms
Jan 27, 2010 10:00:00 (ET)
NEW YORK, Jan 27, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- TheMarkets.com, a leading provider of research, estimates and workflow solutions to the buy-side, today announced that over 700 brokers now publish their content to the Company's global research platform, more than quadrupling the number of contributors from one year ago. TheMarkets.com is used by over 2400 investment management firms worldwide for one-stop access to global research, estimates, filings, events, transcripts and other company and industry content.
Contributing brokers have access to a buy-side audience that includes 21 of the 25 largest U.S. asset managers, 39 of the top 50 European asset managers, and 73 of the world's largest 100 hedge funds. "The vast, global user base of TheMarkets.com is incredibly attractive to potential providers. Contributors need to be where their clients go for research," said Amy Kadomatsu, Chief Product Officer of TheMarkets.com. TheMarkets.com enables participating brokers to reach investors in 51 countries across the globe.
TheMarkets.com has recently increased its research coverage in Asia through the addition of over one hundred top-tier and boutique research providers in the region. Recent notable additions to the platform include BNP Paribas Asia, CLSA, Macquarie Securities, and Nomura. "We continue to target research providers covering high-growth markets, where demand for information is increasing exponentially," said Kadomatsu. TheMarkets.com distributes native-language research from brokers and independent firms in 59 countries. The online software's search function supports keyword searches in languages ranging from Japanese to German, among many others.
"Along with our global research coverage, TheMarkets.com provides global support to our clients and research providers. Our full-service contributor relations teams offer them a single point of contact and prompt handling of requests. These international teams provide personalized, efficient service and support to each of our partners," said Kadomatsu.
Fine print.........
About TheMarkets.com
TheMarkets.com is an award-winning provider of research, estimates, and workflow solutions to over 2400 institutional investment management firms worldwide. TheMarkets.com is owned by: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, The Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, UBS Investment Bank, and Thomson Reuters.
Watch Geithner lie his ass off during his testimony.
http://bit.ly/abSQnb.
Re: Watch Geithner lie his ass off during his testimony.
His eyes shift left... His eyes shift right... back and forth, during his entire opening statement. I was getting dizzy just watching. It is just beyond belief that he can say that his intentions were as pure as the driven snow and not beholden to HB&B.
Re: Watch Geithner lie his ass off during his testimony.
I play poker and reading people is something I work on. His tell is quite easy. When he looks to his left (Your right) while answering he is uncomfortable in the question and treading lightly with his response. I read that is disingenuous.
Cook him!
CAT
Down as much as 8.6% this morning, post earnings hype. Bill called this one like Nostradamus in this week's WIR. Thats approaching $3,000,000,000 gone, gone, gone into the big prop desks' coffers in less than 90 minutes.
Re: Watch Geithner lie his ass off during his testimony.
THROW THE SHOE at this WEASEL
Jeremy Grantham bashes Fed & Bernanke
This is a really interesting article which discusses Jeremy Grantham's recent criticism of the Fed and its role in blowing numerous asset bubbles. It seems to fit well with a lot of topics Bill has recently discussed and also talks about some of the implications of the Fed's policies for the financial markets:
http://www.goldalert.com/stories/Gold-Price-Steady...
Re: Watch Geithner/reading the tells
Careful applying these things universally... that tell (eyes to the left) is based on turning to the creative part of the brain and signals a lie when the subject in question addresses factual question. This is what interrogators base their read on when ask questions that require straightforward yes or no answer based on fact (Have you done this or that, have you seen, etc). However complicated question that by its very nature requires thinking does not lend itself that easily to reading of this tell because in this case involving creative part of the brain is necessary for both truthful and not-so-truthful answers.
That being said, I just can't stand this guy, LOL
YAHOO
Is it just me or is everyone unable to access Yahoo today? My internet is working fine everywhere else. Server problems? Fortunately I got on MSM money so I can watch AAI slide again. Upgrades, good quarterly results and this baby still cant hold a price. Geithner pretty feisty over there in congress.I love it. Government in action! Yellow ties and bad rugs get their moment in the spotlight.
Re: Watch Geithner/reading the tells
I am also keeping in mind he needs to look and address people to our right, his left, as well. But in the same sentiment as you Vad, I just don't like this guy.
But back to prices. :)
Re: Black swans in flight...
MynGntx,
This item illustrates the downside of internet news — too easy to fake it, doctor it, etc. I recently received one for the umteenth time about Ollie North being quized by Al Gore during the Iran Contra hearings which is also false. North's denial of the story had been out there nearly as long.
Once on the internet, even if removed from the original site, outrageous stories live forever and, like the birthday game of "Telephone" get embellished with age.
I have found snopes.com to be a valuable check on suspicious stories, photos (Yes, they can lie easily these days.) and offers for immediate riches from African potentates.
Even network stories and websites of "reliable sources" often smack of plagiarism with exact phrases appearing in multiple ones without attribution and should be considered questionable.
markets can't muster even a retest up-move
pretty telling. I re-entered near the money FAZ calls this morning at the lows (as of today), approx when the trio of hb&b were green and indices 0.0.
I am watching AAPL's reaction to the new device
Which everyone already knows about. I am sure terrestrial planets also have received the memo by now.
If Apple pushes to retest $215 I will buy puts aggressively. If it just tanks, then I might wait for the next support area bounce to initiate a put position on AAPL.
also watching JPM, BLK, GS for put entries on days they move higher to retest resistance.
Re: Watch Geithner/reading the tells
Geithner is doing what I expected. I only watched with sound for a VERY short time (bad for my blood pressure). The congressman asked him if his written statement was also something he would swear to just like his verbal testimony.
Timmy affirmed it.
(The crawl was quoting him as declaring the downfall of AIG would be even worse than that of Lehman. Do we miss Lehman all that much?)
The congressman then said, "Under the circumstances, I don't see what anyone else would have done." Score one for his next campaign!
These guys are about as qualified to question as our National Intelligence
Director who told John McCain (who has extensive knowledge about interrogation) that the enemy's access to our interrogation techniques (U.S. ARMY Field Manual) was not a problem.
I feel like I'm living in a Salvidor Dali painting.
Re: Black swans in flight...
Generally agreed,
In this case, this isn't a single report. Nor is it an isolated incidence. And it is not the first time i've made reference to these rumblings. And these ramblings have become more specific over time, not less so. My primary point is that these claims are not going away....if anything, with individuals like Hannity (as recently as last month) jumping on the ineligiblity bandwagon, there is more smoke now than ever.
What insiders are actually reporting (things I have not before referenced before) is that there has been a deal struck in Washington that in the advent of a successful dethroning of Obama and Biden, regardless of means, that Pelosi will step aside for the anointed one, Hillary Clinton. I do believe that if Obama is doing the job he was voted in office to do, that the snakes in Washington will be forced to attempt a de-coronation... sooner rather than later. And for as much as we may want to disbelieve that Obama may not truly be a citizen of the US, there remains too many unanswered and obfuscated questions in this area for any of us to be certain. Among the partisan assassins and media attack dogs, there are a number of reputable journalists that have been unable to attain "definitive" proof one way or the other. They have uncovered planted historical articles, discrepancies between digital records and paper records, and have all along been unable to obtain release of seemingly innocuous records by legal wrangling and political contortionists unwilling to allow disclosure... for no discernable reason if nothing untoward is to be assumed. But to understand these things in insightful context, that requires first that one look at the data without offhanded dismissal, and then to do so objectively.... something many people (this audience not excluded) are unwilling and uable to do with respect to this as well as many other "taboo" subjects.
Hogwash on the internet? Perhaps. But, believe me, both wicked-pedia and snopes are NOT the fountain of unadulterated truth they are oft quoted as being. I recently documented in great detail spurious Snopes proclamations with regard to Aspartame for a group of individuals who challenged me on this subject. None of them will ever percieve this sweetener as the inocuous substance that has been popularly claimed, and none of them will ever "depend" on the snopes database being in congruence with quality peer-reviewed science. These are easy bottlenecks to control for the purposes of disinformation, misinformation, and propaganda.... as such, you would be foolishness to think that they wouldn't be. They are anything but objective and unpartisan. Even google, the saint in the china debacle, has been documented on numerous occasions to dope their hit list to downplay unsanctioned information, dethrone populist links when they were getting too much undesired coverage, and preferably redirecting searches to CIA-controlled fronts for sanctioned perspectives. If you are not aware of these problems, then you really need to wake up to the larger realities within which we live.
Will this black swan land?... I certainly don't know. But to deny that it is in flight at this time is to be in denial. For my part, I wish Obama good health and longevity in his position as he continues to really aggravate all the right people. I hope that he is indeed constitutionally legitimate, but despite accepted commentary and discouraging berration by the true-believers, this is not at all factually clear (kinda like the anthropomorphic climate-change thing). Furthermore, I genuinely think he wants to do what he was appointed by US voters to do and I whole-heartedly support him in this regard.
I think that if someone assassinates him, they will only create an iconic martyr and that the repercussions around this (in the US and in the rest of the world) would further destabilize the "systems" authority leading to a more rapid overthrow of our illusive "masters." I think "they" know this; so if they are going to bring him down, it will be through scandal or something exactly along the lines of constitutional illegitimacy.
Don't get me wrong, downfall of these fools who continue to exert control over the masses is inevitable. People are over their games. But as this downfall draws tangibly closer, their actions become increasingly desperate, dangerous, and irrational.
Happy trading.
do you know what we need?
what we need right now is the soothsaying words of a former high ranking central bank official with a comfortable 6 figure pension blasting the very institutions and leaders they were too scared to do while in office.
yes i think thats what this country needs, another outspoken former central banker or large institutional fund manager to publish reports blasting the fed, the government and the industry from atop their golden stools, how the system they helped to propagate is just NOW messed up and falling into a hole.
yes, i would feel much better if say a recently retired central banker stepped forward only now and not while they were in power to speak out against the host of travesties the monetary authorities have resided over.
if only the dissenting opinions were more than just a hat-tip during the fed meetings, no, i guess we will have to wait for retirement before public officials have the courage to tell us in no-less than pugnacious terms what time it is.
i cant wait to read Ben Bernanke's post-retirement biography titled:
"cant buy me love: the life and times of the worlds most interesting bankder"
lets get over the non-stop blather from high ranking money men writing pale-faced missives about how screwed up the system is. these same men who made and lost millions or billions in markets, who remain rich have nothing to really offer us in terms of advice, only cautionary scoldings that we all know from reading blogs like this.
gold is acting flip-floppy here, its confoudnig, though my largest holding via jim sinclair's baby TRE is doing fairly well after a 3 year downtrend!! barf. so forgive me if i sound less bellicose than usual.
MOT
bought MOT at $7.24 as an earnings play.
Re: do you know what we need?
Some original effort to break the stranglehold:
http://tinyurl.com/y97py7f
C
looking interesting again. Triple RSI buy alert. Feb max pain 7, March max pain 10. Made lunch money on the last trade.
FD: No position.
# of posts
My experience is when posts decrease on similar sites, it's a turning point.
We'll know in the fullness of time.
Live coverage Apple iPad
http://bit.ly/bTDQC6
I wonder if this will support java for real time trade platforms? The only reason I would or wouldnt buy it. I could use this to trade all day anywhere.
However the stock price reception is not too euphoric as the majority had hoped. and you know what Vad teaches about the majority...
CAS
took a 10% loss. It was a capitulation play.
Gold trashed
bought DGP. Fed in an airtite box.
AIG
in accumulation mode.
FD:No position.
Re: Gold trashed
If you think gold has been trashed in NY, have a gander at silver. The gold to silver ratio is a massive 66 right now. This represents an extreme level. Generally, the trashing of gold and silver to this extent, leading up to a FOMC meeting, indicates that a major new money printing operation will soon be announced by Gentle Ben. Remember that Obama is desperate and is looking for ammo to present during his Big Speech tonight. Bernanke is also desperate and will most likely follow his orders to a T in order to save his job. What we are witnessing in the precious metal pits is nothing more than buffering action. We soon shall see.
Fireworks
Re: C
Be careful with C bsi.
The Fed is forcing C to sell off chunks of the business so they don't have another AIG. As usual, investors will be the last to know what is going on behind those closed doors.
Re: C
I actually like C the best out of the big banks now that they don't have significant trading ops.
Re: C
Parts are probably worth more than the whole. I like it here like the last time
In 12/17 at 3.21
Out 1/14 at 3.51
Do your own homework. No position. Like AIG too (no position) but not as much upside as C IMO.
Preview: FOMC rate decision
Preview: FOMC rate decision due out around 14:15ET
**In a week during which the Fed Chairman's reconfirmation has come into some question the FOMC is expected avoid rocking the boat. The main thrust of the FOMC statement is expected to remain intact, including the "extended period" language. The committee is also not expected to issue any new signals today, such as a bump in the discount rate which has been suggested as an early exit signal.
**reminder: at its last meeting on 12/16, the FOMC said in a unanimous decision:
- reiterates rates will stay exceptionally low for an "extended period"
- Discount rate unchanged at 0.50%
- Economy remain weak for a time, inflation to remain subdued for some time
- Resource slack is dampening cost pressures, sees gradual return to higher levels of resource use
- Reiterates Fed still to purchase $175B in agency debt, $1.25T in agency MBS
- Most Fed liquidity programs, including foreign swap arrangements, to expire Feb 1, 2010
- Anticipates longer term securities purchases will be completed by the end of Q1
- Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability
- Sees gradual return to higher levels of resource use in context of price stability
- Financial market conditions have become more supportive of economic growth
Can of worms
The US Congressional Committee on Oversight and Government Reform has opened a can of worms that must be worked through from top to bottom.
http://oversight.house.gov/
What happened on camera today was, or at least should be, in baseball parlance, the first three pitches to the lead-off batter in the opening game of the World Series.
The Watergate scandal of 1972-1974 took two full years to uncover a truth that persons at the highest levels of US political power could not be trusted. The stakes to the American people then were huge, but in reality are a pittance compared to current events in terms of the cost to real people, the workers, their families, taxpayers, and society.
I believe the American people should demand nothing less than what they received with the Watergate investigation and hearings. They should be flooding the offices of their elected representatives with letters of outrage that what they see going on today on camera is simply not close to being acceptable.
Woah...
Did they raise rates?
Edit: I guess they left it alone. But what was that spike down?
TZA
nice kangaroo tail reversal on the hourly chart from this AM.
Just took off some at 10.38 for 10%.
After the Fed meeting, expecting the EOM effect to kick in.
*FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS RATE
*FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0.25%; VOTE 9-1 (Hoenig Dissents); REITERATES RATES TO STAY EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FOR "EXTENDED PERIOD"
- Vote was 9-1 to keep rates on hold (Hoenig dissented)
- Hoenig believed that economic and financial conditions had changed sufficiently that the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted.
- MBS to end in March as scheduled
- Inflation to be subdued for sometime; Bank lending continues to contract
- deterioration in the labor market is slowing
- In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve will be closing the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility on February 1, as previously announced. In addition, the temporary liquidity swap arrangements between the Federal Reserve and other central banks will expire on February 1. The Federal Reserve is in the process of winding down its Term Auction Facility: $50B in 28-day credit will be offered on February 8 and $25B in 28-day credit wil be offered at the final auction on March 8. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral.
Re: *FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS RATE
Translation = We have no choice but to keep rates near zero.
Re: Woah...
I believe that is called gunning the stops. Look for positive close. To be a wallstreet professional?
Apple iPad wireless plans nullifies me
http://bit.ly/df2QNQ
a) its on AT&T 3g which sucks
b) the cheapest wiht 3g is $629. I rather get a decent mini laptop that can run all applications vs iphone os apps
No sales Steve Jobs.
RIMM
doing a moonshot. I think this could be a really interesting options play going into their earnings. I think one could do well with a straddle. earnings are after the Feb options expiration, though, so premiums could be high.
ADES
Has anyone kept tabs on this company? I think it is very interesting...they're into clean fuel and are taking advantage of mercury reduction rules implemented by the govt. They just got a huge DOE loan and have signed a few new contracts recently. The stock cratered back in 07/08 due to funding concerns, which have been alleviated.
FD:
own a small stake at $5.7 from yesterday; the stock is very illiquid.
Re: Woah...
Those blackboxes had their software updated and took out every stop they could find! Unbelievable
Re: Woah...
LOL, is there anything in the market that is not a black boxes fault?
Look at intraday moves on FOMC day right after the announcement for years, you will see this same pattern.
Sorry, but ' Market ' no longer exists... Casino for skilled
gamblers is all this is.... Nothing more, nothing less..
Re: Woah...
True true. Almost always a spike then a spike in the opposite direction. Of coarse if Big ben said the economy was great! We would still be going down.
Bob
Re: Black swans in flight...
I have read of these attempts to make Obama prove his citizenship and I know there were at least two different lawsuits. I did read one had failed and was being appealed.
I find it disturbing that he has not been forthcoming with all his records (McCain reportedly did — including a thick file of medical history.)
As a resident of Illinois and former voter for Obama. I no longer believe ANYTHING he says and doubt anything could surprise me about him, especially after the past year.
I would, however, be totally amazed if anything could be proven which would remove him from office.
An assassination is just about the worst possible thing I can picture for a whole host of reasons.
I don't take anything, including both snopes and wiki as gospel. Several photos friends have sent me of "remarkable and absolutely true" situations were quite easy to disprove. One was a killer whale attempting to swallow a Navy Seal near the Golden Gate Bridge. I immediately recognized the main photo from a stock photo catalog I had :-)
I am very familiar with Adobe PhotoShop and have sent return photos with my face in among a group of those who were so amazingly "present" just to show how anything can be faked.
Re: do you know what we need?
Mish has a revealing and totally disgusting article today about Bernanke's lobbying to keep his job.
-------
Hypocrite Bernanke and his Political Pandering; Bernanke Buys Votes
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Re: Frameworks and ETN -Thanks
Another key indicator I watch and have a postion in is the ETN of VXX - its been running at 30 with a 52 wk low of 27 and high of 120. I realize investor sentiment can be pretty fickle but its def. worth watching by me.
short covering rally
Well, SPX was < 30 RSI, and this is Bernanke's re-election week, did we really think the market wasn't going to rally? Really now. JPM was at RSI 20, GS was about the same, SPX bounced off 1085 - twice! - and so when the buck moves down just a little bit, we're off to the races. Well, if the races means +8 SPX anyway.
SPY
Moved some of my LT money back into SPY at the close for a trade. I still see a series of higher lows and higher highs but I'm not banking on this being a higher high...just looking for 3 to 4%.
Re: Sorry, but ' Market ' no longer exists... Casino for ...
I was certainly obliged to stand aside, as potential setups for shorting were blown away. However, a couple of occasions now I've picked off stocks that have been trending up the entire day and shorting them as signs of a sell off occur. I think that could be a useful little money spinner to close the session with, given further experience and practice. FITB as it fell through the 50 ma on the 1 min. chart just before closing was "it" today. 1k shares makes it worthwhile.
tomorrow
So sadly, Bernanke will be re-appointed, the 1/3 of Senators who are nearing re-election will vote against him to show their voters "they aren't for the big wall street bankers", but it (deliberately) won't be enough to matter, everyone's political butts will be covered, and HB&B will roar its approval by giving us +20 SPX day, and we'll party on for a few more days as the shorts run for cover.
Perhaps we'll even have a gap up open tomorrow.
That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.
Re: Apple iPad wireless plans nullifies me
AAH---but can you trade in the iPhone as an upgrade?
Foreclosures roll on as Freddie and Fannie duck and cover
Today NPR-NW KUOW (radio Seattle)interviewed a group of economists and politicos who spouted various facts about how foreclosures are worsening, etc. I was incensed that they stated you have to be in default to qualify for a loan modification. THIS IS NOT TRUE. Besides, Fannie/Freddie HAMP and MHA versions are NOT the only means to modify. Ever lender and servicer has their own interpretations and investor guidelines. They vary tremendously. Your application simply has to make sense/hold water.
New guidelines from Freddie Mac came out yesterday stating quite clearly that if you are less than 60 days in arrears your application will be assessed for several options. That means it gets in the priority queue.
Please pass this along if you know anyone considering defaulting on their loan to 'get attention'. It's a bad move.
http://www.freddiemac.com/sell/guide/bulletins/pdf...
My watchlist for tomorrow
Not advice as I may not trade any of these. They all gapped up and closed up. And I like the daily chart setups. haven't look at intraday yet...
Sgen
pip
crxx
rgs
mco
Isis
exxi
gbci
fitb
fmbi
arry
Re: tomorrow
I think its more sad that 1/3 of the people up for re-election will vote against him for political reasons, don't you? Isn't that the real concern?
Re: Black swans in flight...
It seems to me that this statement, "Justice Antonin Scalia announced that the Supreme Court agreed on Tuesday to hear arguments concerning Obama’s legal eligibility to serve as President in a case brought by Leo Donofrio of New Jersey", shouldn’t take long to be borne out as fact or fiction. I for one hope its fact. Could our government be so inept as to install a person as President that does not qualify? Could this really be the case? If so, lets all know it. We see how lightly the government treats out tax money. Lets see how they treat the office of President.
I think i heard Obama promise a new Ferrari...
for every single American. 300 month financing plan at zero interest.
SOU
Futures popped up a bit. Was it the elimination of the small business capital gains tax idea? The $30 billion for regional banks? Or was it the 5-year plan to double U.S. exports? (or did he say it was a 2-year plan?)
Madison Plateau
Hi All - Since the following report there have been a bunch more. Hope this doesn't turn into something --- As of January 25, 2010 9:00 AM MST there have been 1,271 located earthquakes in the recent Yellowstone National Park swarm. The swarm began January 17, 2010 around 1:00 PM MST about 10 miles (16 km) northwest of the Old Faithful area on the northwestern edge of Yellowstone Caldera. Swarms have occurred in this area several times over the past two decades. Jock - Easing into Strathmore, Seabridge and Exeter. Some of you might want to look at Western Lithium (very green you know)for the day trader types -- good action recently and with decent volumes. Happy Trading
His finest moment?
In my whole life I have never walked out on a State of the Union address as I believe that would be disrespectful. Tonight, however, the last words I heard were "climate change..." I'm sorry, but what I heard tonight from a leader I had hoped would take command of a nation in serious trouble was far less than inspiring; it was pathetic. This was a person I would have voted for and that I had hoped would give the speech of his life tonight. How disappointing.
Sorry, but that's my feeling.
Re: I think i heard Obama promise a new Ferrari...
You missed the part where you get a free garage shelter for the Ferrari under the home renovation program.
Who is going to pay for all this is what ASIA is thinking like myself.
Re: His finest moment?
So you probably missed the stunning silence he received from the gathering on the issue. He quickly recovered with a chuckle and said: "I know ... you might debate the science about it but, you know, it's the right thing to do to improve efficiency, blah, blah, blah...", and then he quickly moved on to promising more ferraris all around. :) I thought he ended fairly strongly though. Basically he opened and closed with a slap up the side of the head to the banksters...just what the pollsters wanted, I guess.
Re: Black swans in flight...
This is old CRAP.Check this out.
http://www.factcheck.org/2009/05/was-obama-born-in...
http://urbanlegends.about.com/od/barackobama/a/oba...
campeagle1969
Re: His finest moment?
Yup, we just get same-old, same-old. Blame all the problems on someone else, print up some more wealth for everyone, and then play tricks with the numbers in hopes nobody notices.
PS: I'll add to that... We get changes, but the ONLY changes we actually get are the ones we DIDN'T want, and any that we really NEED get watered down or are left by the roadside for dead.
He always SOUNDS good (even when the proposals are misguided), but it never turns into anything positive for the people or the nation.
U.S. Market Volume ... heading for the exits
Bill warned us repeatedly traders would leave the U.S. markets if this manipulation isn't resolved. Well, here's the confirmation as discussed by Nicholas Santiago. Scroll down to his chart at the bottom of the link.
http://tinyurl.com/yaqgeux
via Phil's Favorite-by Ilene:
"Let’s say the market is in an economic recovery and the financial crisis is behind us. Normally one would expect the trading volume in the stock market to increase. This has not been the case. Volume for the month of November and December 2009 have been lighter than August of 2009. Remember August is notoriously the lightest trading month of the year. Hence the term ’summer doldrums.’ January is usually a very high volume month, yet it has started off the New Year even lighter than the last two months of 2009.
Light volume markets are very difficult to short. Hence the old saying, ‘never short a dull market’. This is as dull of a market as we have seen in many years. While there are some stocks such as Apple (NYSE:AAPL), and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) that have traded with respectable volume the bulk has come from government owned names. Stocks such as Citigroup (NYSE:C), American International Group (NYSE:AIG), Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM), and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE), have often accounted for one third, and sometimes half of the daily volume on numerous trading days."
Re: His finest moment?
"I have never had more hope....in our future, as I have tonight!"
I...I....I...I...I
It's all a big scripted political theater anymore! Thanks Obama...you just convinced me Washington is nothing but a parasitic cult.
now piss off!
Re: His finest moment?
Isn't this how budgets are done Bill? Oh darn and I was just starting to believe again...well, so much for truth and morality; it's a game to him; his definition of score one for the team appears to be take it to the hole and when they are not looking quickly fill it with cement lest they try to score also. (i.e. come on senators, can't we all just get along?) Yes, I too was disappointed with the obvious crap he was pedaling. My, he does love the spotlight though.
Asian markets up
Currently, Asian Markets all green with the exception of NZSE (down - 9.97)
Hang Seng up +363.33; Nikkei up +174.30; India up +186.75
Writing Options
Hi,
I am new in options trading and would like to apply some conservative options writing strategies to get my feet wet.
See attached chart for my logic. Please let me know if out in left field.
I bought some GG today at $36 with the intent of selling future covered calls (when it becomes overbought).
But in the oversold state I would like to write a put to lower my cost basis.
I think the stock is going higher from here and if it doesn't then a new cost is ~$33 (35-1.96) is good with me or another 100 shares at 35-1.96/2 if I include the 100 shares I already own.
e.g. GG P 20MAR10 35.00 US O
I also figured out that selling "covered" puts need to be done in a shorting account. Is this the only way to sell puts?? Does anyone here use TD Waterhouse for selling Naked puts? I don't have a shorting account setup, because the main reason I would like to write puts is for income and potentially by stocks I like at a lower cost.
Am I approaching this the right way? I bought a couple of books on options that I will start reading on the weekend. I went through the CBOE website also and have read the Options section in the Trader Wizard.
I only learn by doing the real thing so I thought this would be a low risk way of testing it. To date I have been a pure long trader where I have only bought and sold shares with the markets tides.
Cheers
Etienne
Re: tomorrow
TOF said - I think its more sad that 1/3 of the people up for re-election will vote against him for political reasons, don't you? Isn't that the real concern?
Nope, I think its of substantially greater concern that Bernanke will be re-appointed. I felt Steve Keen's article on how Bernanke has so misunderstood the causes of the Great Depression was quite compelling. Politicians come and go, but the Fed Chairman has more power (and responsibility) than any of them.
I think it is extremely bad policy to leave all the people who were at the helm - whose actions led to the crash - in charge going forward. We leave Bernanke in charge, as we do all the heads of the banks we had to bail out. Its astonishing. It makes no sense. "As a reward for your incredible incompetence, we'll give you another four years. What could possibly go wrong?"
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2010/01/24/debt...
ES (S&P Mini Futures) +8.50 in asia
Re: Writing Options
So according to Bill's strategy, writing puts is done generally prior to actually buying stock. When the daily RSI dips below 30, and you have a sense that downward movement has possibly come to an end (the stock is at support, for instance, and you observe intraday that the stock seems to be respecting that support level) that is when you write puts.
For instance, I wrote some GG puts a couple of days back. Stock was trading slightly above 36, gold seemed to have bounced off support at 1080, GG's RSI was 20, I felt there was decent support intraday, and so I wrote the 36 March puts. I got about $2 for each one. Of course GG has continued down, which is never fun, but that's part of put writing. To get the premium, it seems like you almost have to write them before the situation completely solidifies. I'm $0.45 underwater, but with GG at 35.90, and with gold (hopefully) bottoming at 1085 today, all will be well.
I think your 35 March puts are a fine candidate. However, again according to Bill's strategy, the time to buy stock is once that RSI starts to climb back above 30, so the concept is - first write puts, and then once the stock starts to recover, then buy stock.
Waiting until you see a bounce (RSI > 30) before buying stock is done to minimize risk. That is because being short 1 put cotract is less risky than holding 100 shares of the underlying, since you have the buffer of the premium to offset any potential loss.
I use TDAM to do all my options trading. You need to have a margin account, and also you need to sign an options agreement as well.
Re: His finest moment?
I will say again as I have for the last two years. Obama was invented out of the Chigago Daly machine. He is a trial lawyer with absolutely no record of governance. His oratory is A+ as befits an empty suit and his 'bribe' retirement will be paid ex-post facto by those benefitting from the rape of the treasury.
He will and does reward the power that is now extant. It is not so much about money although that is how the 'game' is scored. It is about power.
I steal a quote from Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. "The only prize much cared for by the powerful is power. The prize of the general is not a bigger tent, but command."
Re: Writing Options
selling options is done in a margin account - in some brokers that is a single margin account, with TD it may be separated into long and short margin accounts, for US and CAD securities (4 accounts total).
instead of even considering naked options at this point, step #1 would be mastering option spreads which cap your risk and your potential for a massive use of margin if something goes wrong (and it will)...your TD broker may not let you enter those orders (2 orders or more at once). there are many option strategies which you will read about.
Re: Writing Options
I have a different opinion on naked puts and their risk.
Writing puts CAN be risky, but not if you have enough cash to cover each contract you write. If you consider each contract as if you had bought 100 shares of the underlying, and you reserve enough cash in your account to cover that put write, In fact, put writing is LESS risky than buying stock. But only under those conditions.
What could get you into trouble is if you write more puts than you have cash to cover them. In that case, you are leveraged, and dramatic moves against you can end up wiping out your account. Your broker WILL let you do this, so it is up to you to restrain your own use of leverage.
Again - if you mentally allocate the cash to buy the underlying for each put you write, you will not get into trouble. But that bit is critical.
Once you have a few put write trades go against you, you'll understand better what I mean. If that cash is there, and you've mentally allocated it to those puts, you'll be ok.
Re: Writing Options
agree
...intelligent naked option writing is a profitable consistent strategy in this crazy market, but u are putting margin at work virtually if u are doing it safely - as you say mentally setting aside cash for the trade. but setting aside how much? it can be very large sums.
danger is that many would not cash for all inevitable outcomes? like you sold a call JPM OCT $25 in march and it goes to $45 by October. if you sold a call option like that for say $3 you might need $30 for each option in margin room if things go very badly against you :)
India tightening lending policy as well
"Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- India’s wholesale food prices rose at a faster pace in the second week of January, adding pressure on the central bank to raise borrowing costs in tomorrow’s scheduled meeting to curb inflation.
An index of food articles compiled by the commerce ministry increased 17.4 percent in the week to Jan. 16 from a year earlier, following a 16.81 percent gain the previous week. Food inflation reached 19.95 percent in the week to Dec. 5, the fastest pace since December 1998.
Asia’s emergence from the global recession is threatening to rekindle inflation across the region as risks of asset bubbles rise in some economies. China’s central bank told lenders to set aside more money as reserves this month, and all but one of the 23 economists surveyed by Blo..."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
That's huge inflationary pressures being felt in necessities like food and not useless crap like Ipads.
We need a New Bretton Woods, the world cannot rely on the Dollar
Tonight from Euroland @ Davos
Not sure who said it. I have Squawkbox Europe on DVR, but haven't seen it yet.
Found it.... Sarkozy
President Sarkozy Calls For A “New Bretton Woods”
http://www.mondovisione.com/index.cfm?section=news...
U.S. Cattle Herd Falls to 1958 Low
"Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. cattle herd may have shrunk to the smallest size since 1958, as mounting losses during the recession spurred beef and dairy producers to cull animals, analysts said.
Wholesale choice-beef prices averaged $1.4071 a pound last year, the lowest level since at least 2004, as U.S. job losses climbed and meat demand waned. Corn, the main ingredient in livestock feed, jumped to a record $7.9925 a bushel in 2008 on the Chicago Board of Trade, and prices averaged about $3.79 last year, the third-highest annual average since at least 1959.
“There’s not much incentive to be building herds,” said John Nalivka, the president of Sterling Marketing Inc., a livestock-industry consulting company in Vale, Oregon. “Costs of production across the cow-calf sector and in dairy have gone up in the past two years, and prices have come down” for beef and milk, he said."
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-27/u-s-ca...
More inflationary pressures. Interesting how COW and DBA remain under significant pressure at the moment. There appears to be a trend in the two ETF's - albeit not stellar performance. I wonder when that changes?
Re: "A New Bretton Woods"
Sarkozy calling for regulation:
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/specials/World_economi...
you'll appreciate the rah-rah of Sarkozy's call for tighter regulation of free market capitalism in the following article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive...
France appears to be caught between its mercantile past and free market present. While the French Govt. owns France Telco and other entities and orders them to go and be free market winners, severe employment laws punitive to these public/private hybrids give rise to a phenomena of "ghost employees" - on the payroll but completely ignored by their management and fellow employees - who are committing suicide en masse. "Mental wellbeing" and "sound employee relations" are a by-product of the French regulatory approach to capitalism and its managerial elitism.
No thanks.
George Soros warns gold is now the 'ultimate bubble'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/d...
Yet deflationary pressures are being felt in the German economy, as Siemens sees no rosy outcome in 2010 as it lets 2000 employees go.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Siemens-to-slash-200...
I just can't wait to see how Greece is resolved. Those PIIGS nations looking for a handout from the ECB (i.e, France & Germany) are going to run into some serious political anger from their own increasingly unemployed populations.
I wonder what game Soros is playing, calling gold bubbles when the Euro is close to being sorely tested. Someone betting on a dollar rally, or looking to load up on the next dip?
Re: We need a New Bretton Woods, the world cannot rely on ...
I called it a General Agreement on Currencies a few years ago, and people questioned what I was talking about. I have frequently complained that HB&B prop desks are gaming the system by making massive purchases and sales of securities that are listed on different markets in different currencies, which became such a problem when markets started gapping up or down at the open as a result. Because of the frequency, I said it was intentional. Because Goldman Sachs had just one losing trading day out of 100, while the rest of us were scrambling, I said it was Goldman Sachs behind it.
A G-20 agreement on currencies is absolutely essential for market stability and for the benefit of companies engaged in international trade in goods and services. So too is having all equity securities that are listed on more than one market be required to be traded in the currency of their main regulator unless the company chooses otherwise. There are many USD-denominated securities on the Toronto Exchange. If Hong Kong Bank wants to be traded in HK Dollars or British Pounds or USD, that should be the company's choice, but only one choice should be available to them. This might appear to be radical thinking, but I am afraid the HB&B trading desks will continue gaming the system otherwise. Markets are needed for price discovery, not forex trading games.
LMT being accumulated
Jesse's provided a graph of durable goods shipment. Military orders are on the ascendancy and holding up durable goods in the face of non-military collapse:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/S2AC6p4Vn5I/...
Having a quick glance through the defense stocks, I noticed LMT:
FWIW. DYODD
Re: His finest moment?
This sums it up,very funny
http://www.breitbart.tv/132-the-number-of-times-ob...
Re: His finest moment?
Scripted theater, YES!
And does he think we have forgotten this same show was played out during his campaign.
A laundry list of what the people want.
This routine may have worked out as a community organizer, but OUR community is just getting organized and he is not to be included come 2012.
I held out no hope for sincere change from him, but my disappointment in the fakery of the rest of our government is growing daily.
Bernanke, Congress, The White House, the media...
Once disillusioned, re-illusionment is not the remedy we need. There is no substitute for truth.
"The Truth shall set you free!"
Re: U.S. Cattle Herd Falls to 1958 Low
Les,
I'm a bit confused here. The costs of raising cattle have risen, but the demand for meat has fallen.
This looks to me to be a deflationary picture.
Won't the lack of demand for feed force producers of the feed to cut prices? It seems to me this may take a while, but will gradually have to be.
At the meat counter we may see an upward move in prices until beef production is increased again, but with all the job losses I expect a shift to cheaper meals is still just kicking in.
I only expect inflation in those areas where consumers have no options — health care (meds) and taxes (at all levels, like Oregon).
We have shifted from a 70% consumer supported GDP to a mostly stimulus supported one (USofA is now a lot of BS of America.)
Re: U.S. Cattle Herd Falls to 1958 Low
Whoops - double post, sorry.
re;writing/selling puts.
love selling naked puts w/cash backing......my $6 puts on Hecla HL are getting me in trouble at the present but by trying to limit each position to about ten percent of account it makes the draw down livable...I opened a special cash secured IRA last Jan for $100,000 to see how it would work...last jan hi 108m, march low 88m, hi last mo 146, currently 142....will probably do 5 AONE and 10 ME today,its a great stratedy w/patience or commissions can eat you up..good luck.... DYOD of course.....PS get lots of ideas off the evening Korvus lists,thanks again......
re;writing/selling puts.
love selling naked puts w/cash backing......my $6 puts on Hecla HL are getting me in trouble at the present but by trying to limit each position to about ten percent of account it makes the draw down livable...I opened a special cash secured IRA last Jan for $100,000 to see how it would work...last jan hi 108m, march low 88m, hi last mo 146, currently 142....will probably do 5 AONE and 10 ME today,its a great stratedy w/patience or commissions can eat you up..good luck.... DYOD of course.....PS get lots of ideas off the evening Korvus lists,thanks again......
Re: U.S. Cattle Herd Falls to 1958 Low
Hi Grym. No IMO it is inflationary. 1 - the basics to maintain a cattle herd are rising (corn etc. they still making ethanol with grains in the US?). We can live without excessive amounts of beef, but corn be a staple for a large part of the world. If its cost is rising...
2. How many cows can you kill before there isn't enough supply to meet demand?
3. Falling US dollar means increasingly competitive exports. How long before US producers realise they have a product for the export market? Heck, if Oz and NZ can export sheep half way round the world. It's clear the end product is suffering deflationary pressures but again, for how long?
of course I could be wrong